So we have a new Hall of Fame ballot, intended to address the question of whether some (highly) qualified players whose careers extended through the period bounded by roughly 1973 and 1990 (which Major League Baseball is, for some reason, calling the "expansion era"). Six of the people on that ballot are there as players:
Catcher: Ted Simmons
First Base: Steve Garvey
Shortstop: Dave Concepcion
Right Field: Dave Parker
Starting Pitcher: Tommy John
Relief Pitcher: Dan Quisenberry
I thought it would be useful (for my own purposes) to take a look at these players, compared to other players from the same time period, to see (a) whether we have the best candidates from the period and (b) whether they (or someone else) has a strong case for the Hall of Fame.
Fortunately, for my purposes, Baseball Reference has a marvelous set of links that allowed me to download career data for all HoF eligible players, and including their career Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and Jay Jaffe’s WAR7 (WAR in their 7 best years), and his JAWS rating, which is (if I remember correctly) simply the average of WAR and WAR7. Let’s do this position-by-position, and see what we get. My bottom line is this: MLB got the best candidate among eligible catchers, and missed quite badly at first base, shortstop, right field. Tommy John is a reasonable, if not the best, candidate as a starter (Rick Reuschel and Luis Tiant look a little better). And Quisenberry has a WAR total just about identical to Kent Tekulve and Sparky Lyle. Besides, I’m not sure we know, really, how to evaluate relief pitchers for the Hall yet.
One clearly right out of six is not an impressive accomplishment.
CATCHER
Mean WAR for HoF Catchers: 52.7
Median WAR for HoF Catchers: 52.7
Mean WAR7 for HoF Catchers: 34.3
Third Quartile WAR for HoF Catchers: 41.0
Mean JAWS for HoF Catchers: 43.5
Three catchers had careers that match up well with the 1973-1990 period: Ted Simmons (1968-1988), Gene Tenace (1969-1983), and Thurman Munson (1969-1979) and who might be regarded as plausible candidates among catchers in this period for the Hall. Here’s how they line up. Darryl Porter and Jim Sundberg follow these three in terms of WAR, but both have between 40 and 41 WAR, which is a considerable gap.
Player
|
WAR
|
WAR7
|
JAWS
|
Simmons
|
50.2
|
43.1
|
42.4
|
Tenace
|
46.8
|
34.7
|
40.9
|
Munson
|
45.9
|
36.9
|
41.4
|
Simmons is clearly the best qualified of the three, and would not lead to any significant lowering of the quality of catchers in the Hall. Tenace and Munson are both reasonably well qualified on the basis of their career peaks, but slightly below Jaffe’s JAWS standard. All three are at a minimum marginally qualified for the HoF, and Simmons seems to me to be well-qualified.
FIRST BASE
Mean WAR for HoF First Basemen: 60.9
Median WAR for HoF First Basemen: 64.9
Mean WAR7 for HoF First Basemen: 42.2
Third Quartile WAR for HoF First Basemen : 54.2
Mean JAWS for HoF First Basemen: 53.5
The candidates here start with Keith Hernandez (1974-1990), and include Steve Garvey (1969-1987), Cecil Cooper (1971-1987), and Mike Hargrove (1974-1985). Seriously, those are the top four. Here’s what we get:
Player
|
WAR
|
WAR7
|
JAWS
|
Hernandez
|
60.1
|
41.0
|
50.6
|
Garvey
|
37.6
|
28.4
|
33.6
|
Cooper
|
35.8
|
30.0
|
32.9
|
Hargrove
|
30.2
|
24.1
|
27.2
|
One of those four is clearly not like the other three, and it’s not Steve Garvey. Hernandez had a significantly more valuable career than Garvey, who, despite some gaudy career numbers, really looks more like Cecil Cooper than like a serious Hall of Fame candidate. And Hernandez’s numbers match up well in value with the median first basemen in the Hall. A clear miss.
SECOND BASE:
Mean WAR for HoF Second Basemen: 60.9
Median WAR for HoF Second Basemen: 64.9
Mean WAR7 for HoF Second Basemen: 42.2
Third Quartile WAR for HoF Second Basemen : 54.2
Mean JAWS for HoF Second Basemen: 53.5
There is no second baseman on the list of candidates, but it’s worth asking who would make the best choice. The three best options would be Bobby Grich (1970-1986), Willie Randolph (1975-1992), and Davy Lopes (1972-1987). Many users of advanced performance metrics are strong supporters of Grich’s HoF case, and Randolph has an almost equally good one. Lopes has his detractors (especially among those who focus on defense), but he was one of the best, most consistent, and most successful base-stealers ever. Here are their numbers:
Player
|
WAR
|
WAR7
|
JAWS
|
Grich
|
71.0
|
46.3
|
56.3
|
Randolph
|
65.6
|
36.1
|
50.9
|
Lopes
|
42.0
|
29.8
|
35.9
|
To my mind, Grich and Randolph are both quality candidates for the Hall; Grich is, if anything, over-qualified. (Lou Whitaker is also, to me, a slam-dunk candidate, but his career falls outside the time frame I’m considering here.) Grich surpasses the average HoF second baseman in WAR, in peak, and in JAWS. Randolph’s WAR exceeds the mean and median HoF numbers and is only slightly below Jaffe’s JAWS standard. He had a somewhat lower peak, but a long and productive career. Lopes falls short across the board. Why MLB ignored Grich is beyond me.
THIRD BASE:
Mean WAR for HoF Third Basemen: 68.8
Median WAR for HoF Third Basemen: 73.1
Mean WAR7 for HoF Third Basemen: 43.9
Third Quartile WAR for HoF Third Basemen : 45.5
Mean JAWS for HoF Third Basemen: 56.4
Third base is probably the most under-represented position in the Hall, with only 13 players selected for their performance as players at the hot corner. Yet no third baseman appears on this "expansion era" make-up ballot. The best candidates are Graig Nettles (1967-1988), Buddy Bell (1972-1989), Sal Bando (1966-1981), and Darrell Evans (1969-1989). Bando’s career is not as good a time-line fit, but it’s close enough.
Player
|
WAR
|
WAR7
|
JAWS
|
Nettles
|
68.0
|
42.2
|
55.1
|
Bell
|
65.9
|
40.2
|
53.1
|
Bando
|
61.6
|
44.4
|
53.0
|
Evans
|
58.5
|
37.1
|
47.8
|
Frankly, Nettles, Bell, and Bando all look quite well-qualified to me, while Evans has a somewhat weaker case. While the average performance of HoF third basemen exceeds that of all of these players, Nettles, Bell, and Bando are very close to that average, and considerably exceed the third quartile level of performance. And Evans performed at a level well above the third quartile of third basemen as well. Adding all four of these players to the Hall would not be a bad idea.
SHORTSTOP:
Mean WAR for HoF Shortstops: 66.5
Median WAR for HoF Shortstops: 66.4
Mean WAR7 for HoF Shortstops: 42.8
Third Quartile WAR for HoF Shortstops: 48.5
Mean JAWS for HoF Shortstops: 54.6
Who does our group include at shortstop, in addition to Dave Concepcion (1970-1988), who is on the ballot? Bert Campaneris (1964-1983) started and ended his career a little earlier; and Bill Russell (1969-1986) is in the ballpark.
Player
|
WAR
|
WAR7
|
JAWS
|
Campaneris
|
53.3
|
36.7
|
45.0
|
Concepcion
|
40.0
|
29.8
|
34.9
|
Russell
|
31.0
|
21.1
|
26.1
|
Looks to me like they picked the wrong guy. Campaneris was better in every respect than was Concepcion—and he also played on an outstanding team that had a great in-season and post-season run in the 1970s. Although Campy falls short of the average HoF shortstop, he’s well above the third quartile—which Concepcion is not. Russell isn’t really even in the conversation.
LEFT FIELD:
Mean WAR for HoF Left Fielders: 64.3
Median WAR for HoF Left Fielders: 60.0
Mean WAR7 for HoF Left Fielders: 41.1
Third Quartile WAR for Left Fielders: 47.2
Mean JAWS for HoF Left Fielders: 52.7
The ballot also has no left-fielders or center-fielders on it, but we’ll look at the candidates anyway. I’m not quite sure why the standards for left fielders seem to be so low (albeit higher than those for center fielders—see below—but, then CFs have much greater defensive responsibilities), but they are. The best candidates include Jose Cruz (1970-1988), Brian Downing (1973-1992), and George Foster (1969-1986).
Player
|
WAR
|
WAR7
|
JAWS
|
Cruz
|
54.3
|
36.2
|
45.3
|
Downing
|
51.4
|
29.0
|
40.2
|
Foster
|
44.0
|
36.8
|
40.4
|
Foster, interestingly, has a slightly higher peak than Cruz, but otherwise trails both Cruz and Downing. Cruz and Downing exceed the third quartile performance for HoF left fielders, but lag behind the average WAR and the peak performance levels. Neither Cruz nor Downing would be an awful choice for the Hall (Cruz, in my mind, has a much stronger case), but neither has a terribly strong case, either.
CENTER FIELD:
Mean WAR for HoF Center Fielders: 71.3
Median WAR for HoF Center Fielders: 58.5
Mean WAR7 for HoF Center Fielders: 44.5
Third Quartile WAR for Center Fielders: 45.5
Mean JAWS for HoF Center Fielders: 57.8
Not a strong set of candidates here. Chet Lemon (1975-1990), Cesar Cedeno (1970-1986), and Fred Lynn (1974-1990) are the leading three. Center field has surprisingly low performance standards, probably because so much weight is given to offense. The mean performance level of HoF center fielders is very high—but that’s largely because of the four leaders—all of whom [Mays (156.1); Cobb (151.1); Speaker (133.9); and Mantle (109.7)] compiled about 7 or 8 careers worth of HoF quality performance between them.
Player
|
WAR
|
WAR7
|
JAWS
|
Lemon
|
55.3
|
37.0
|
46.2
|
Cedeno
|
52.6
|
41.2
|
46.9
|
Lynn
|
46.9
|
38.2
|
44.1
|
This is a really tight grouping, across the board. Lemon had the best career total WAR, but the lowest peak. Cedeno had the highest peak and the best JAWS. All three exceed the third quartile performance, but none exceeds the median and none exceeds the average peak performance (although Cedeno is close). My own feeling is that if one of these players does belong in the Hall, it’s Cedeno. But if none of the three gets in, that’s pretty much OK with me.
RIGHT FIELD:
Mean WAR for HoF Right Fielders: 77.2
Median WAR for HoF Right Fielders: 70.6
Mean WAR7 for HoF Right Fielders: 44.6
Third Quartile WAR for Right Fielders: 54.1
Mean JAWS for HoF Right Fielders: 60.9
Here be monsters. Consider that five RFs had career WAR in excess of 100 (Ruth, Aaron, Musial, Ott, F. Robinson) and two more (Clemente and Kaline) exceeded 90. The 12th highest career WAR (Harry Heilmann, 72.2) would rank no worse tthan 7th at any other position (2B). So who has a chance in right field? Well, Dave Parker (1973-1991) is on the ballot. Dwight Evans (1972-1991), Reggie Smith (1966-1982), Jack Clark (1975-1992), and Ken Singleton 91970-1984) are also worth considering.
Player
|
WAR
|
WAR7
|
JAWS
|
Evans
|
66.7
|
37.0
|
51.8
|
Smith
|
64.4
|
38.5
|
51.4
|
Clark
|
51.9
|
31.3
|
42.1
|
Singleton
|
41.8
|
33.7
|
37.8
|
Parker
|
40.0
|
37.3
|
38.6
|
I initially wondered why Parker was on the ballot, rather than Evans of Smith (both of whom had dramatically more valuable careers). The answer is Parker’s peak, slightly higher (and earlier) than that of Evans) and about equal to Smith’s. Still, Parker’s overall value is clearly lower than that of the top three, and only about equal to that of Singleton. This is a second case in which, it seems to me, that MLB made a clear error. Evans and Smith are quite reasonable HoF choices, while Parker is equally clearly not.
STARTING PITCHERS:
Mean WAR for HoF Starting Pitchers: 73.0
Median WAR for HoF Starting Pitchers: 65.6
Mean WAR7 for HoF Starting Pitchers: 50.9
Third Quartile WAR for Starting Pitchers: 56.3
Mean JAWS for HoF Starting Pitchers: 60.2
We once again seem to have monsters stalking the land. But who are the best of the "expansion era"? Rick Reuschel, Luis Tiant, Tommy John, Frank Tanana, and Jerry Koosman would seem to be the candidates. Here’s what it looks like:
Player
|
WAR
|
WAR7
|
JAWS
|
Reuschel
|
70.0
|
43.8
|
57.0
|
Tiant
|
66.7
|
44.6
|
55.7
|
John
|
62.0
|
34.7
|
48.3
|
Tanana
|
57.9
|
38.5
|
48.2
|
Koosman
|
53.8
|
36.6
|
45.2
|
I see three strong candidates—Reuschel, Tiant, and John, and two who are clearly second-tier. Reuschel appears to have had the best overall career, and Tiant the highest peak. But John was very good for a very long time, and was also very, very famous. I’d take both Reuschel and Tiant before him, but he’s clearly a good choice. I will add that there are a three additional monster starting pitchers, with career WAR above 100, waiting (Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson) and four more with WAR above the HoF average for starters (Pedro Martinez, Mike Mussins, Tom Glavine, and Curt Schilling).
RELIEF PITCHERS
With only five relievers currently in the Hall (Dennis Eckersley, Hoyt Wilhelm, Goose Gossage, Bruce Sutter, and Rollie Fingers), we can hardly conclude that we have anything like clear standards. From the "expansion era," three possibilities sort of stand out—Kent Tekulve, Dan Quisenberry, and Sparky Lyle.
Player
|
WAR
|
WAR7
|
JAWS
|
Tekulve
|
26.3
|
19.8
|
24.4
|
Quisenberry
|
25.4
|
23.1
|
24.2
|
Lyle
|
23.8
|
19.3
|
21.5
|
Sutter
|
24.6
|
24.6
|
24.6
|
Fingers
|
26.1
|
19.2
|
22.7
|
Quiz and Tekulve are both remembered as submariners, but they were very different pitchers. KT struck out about 5 per 9, and gave up about 3 unintentional walks per 9; for Quiz, those numbers were 3.3 and 0.8. (Lyle’s K and walk data—5.6 Ks and 2.5 Ws per 9). I really don’t know if any of these three belongs in the Hall, but all three of them have numbers very similar to Sutter and Fingers. At this point, I don’t think we really know what to do about relief pitchers.
CONCLUSIONS
It looks to me as if MLB got one right—Simmons for catcher, and three clearly wrong. Keith Hernandez had a much more Hall-worthy career at first than did Steve Garvey, and Bert Campaneris was clearly a better shortstop than Dave Concepcion. Dave Parker was no better than fourth as a right fielder (acknowledging that much of Ken Singleton’s career was spent as a DH); Dwight Evans, Reggie Smith, and Jack Clark all had more valuable careers.
MLB placed no candidates on the ballot as second basemen, third basemen, left fielders, or center fielders. Bobby Grich remains one of the best players not in the Hall, with a career performance well above any selection standard. I can actually understand not placing a third baseman on the ballot. For many people, Graig Nettles probably doesn’t "feel like" a Hall-of-Famer. The plausible candidates from left and center also don’t seem remarkably strong.
While Tommy John is not a bad selection as a starting pitcher, Rick Reuschel and Luis Tiant seem better choices to me. But, for John, his status as a pioneer (albeit not really a willing one) may tip the balance. And if anyone knows how to evaluate relievers for the Hall, let me know. Please.