Much ado has been made of the many managers recently hired without any managing experience. For instance, Walt Weiss and Bo Porter were recently hired by the Rockies and Astros, respectively. Another manager, Mike Redmond, was hired by the Marlins with only A-level experience.
Is this spate of hiring untested managers unprecedented? No. In 2001 four managers were hired without any minor or major league experience: Bob Brenly, Bob Melvin, Buck Martinez, and Lloyd McClendon were hired before the start of that season by the Diamondbacks, Mariners, Blue Jays, and Pirates, respectively. In 2012, completely inexperienced managers Robin Ventura and Mike Matheny were hired by the White Sox and Cardinals, while Dale Sveum was hired by the Cubs with only AA managing experience and 16 games as a major league manager. In 2011, the Blue Jays’ John Farrell and the Dodgers’ Don Mattingly were complete manager newbies, while Ron Roenicke took the helm of the Brewers with only minor league experience.
Are we in a trend? I think so, but it is a foggy trend. After 2001, excluding interim managers, a completely inexperienced manager was hired almost once a year for the next nine years, but never two in the same year. Some were successes. Brenly won the World Series in his first year. Ozzie Guillen won it in his second year. Joe Girardi was voted manager of the year with the Marlins–even though he barely lasted the season. Bud Black won a Manager of the Year award in his fourth year.
However, of the 11 managers hired without any experience during the ten years from 2000-2009, only three lasted as long as four full seasons: McClendon (didn’t make it all the way to five seasons), Guillen (eight), and Black (six, so far).
The success of Kirk Gibson with the D’backs in 2010 may have inspired the hiring of Mattingly and Farrell. The Dodgers seem happy with Donny Ballgame and the Red Sox lured Farrell back from the Blue Jays. Then Ventura and Matheny helped provide surprising success to their teams last year, so it would not be surprising if more newbies were hired this year. Of course, if Weiss and Porter are complete flops this trend will likely come to an abrupt halt.
Every new manager is carefully screened for his baseball strategy skills, player relation skills, public relation skills, and compatibility with directions coming from the front office. The amount of managing experience is almost irrelevant, but not completely. It was loudly rumored this fall that Toronto was looking for an experienced manager. Just for fun, I made a table to see if there was a specific amount of managerial experience that has worked out best.
Considering that running a baseball team has evolved significantly in recent years, my table only goes back to the year 2000. That happens to be just far enough to include every active manager. It crudely measures the success of every non-interim manager. Those who were hired after the start of a season, but did not start the next season as that team’s manager were not included–unless–and this happened to Dale Sveum in 2008–unless they made the play-offs. That year Ned Yost managed the Brewers all season as he had for the previous five until September, when his team suffered 11 losses in 14 games. Milwaukee had a 4 ½ game lead for the wild card spot on Aug. 31. That lead dwindled to zero. Yost was fired; Sveum was hired. The Brewers managed to regain the wild card spot over the Mets by a game.
Interpreting the Manager Success by Experience Table
Any line in bold indicates that hiring is still active. You can also tell by the two dots after the data in the "TSP" column.
A ".e" or ".l" after the year of hire indicates an in-season hire: "e" is for early in the season. If the manager started after the 81st game, he gets a ".l".
Exp.? asks if the manager had experience managing in organized baseball before he was hired.
PMLS stands for Previous Major League Stints. If the manager had two stints with the same team within less than a year, those count just as one major league stint. An "i" indicates that manager’s only major league experience was just an interim shot.
Yrs. is an abbreviation for the number of years that manager lasted after his hiring. A minus sign means he didn’t make it all the way through that Nth season. A plus sign means he made it just past that number of years. The squiggly equal sign "≈" means he more or less managed that number of years. More exactly, it means that if he was either hired in the 2nd half of a season and fired in the 2nd half of a season – or he was both hired and fired in the early part of a season. (By "fired", I am including "resigned" or "died". No one in this study died, but I will always remember when two managers from my favorite childhood team (Detroit’s Chuck Dressen and his replacement Bob Swift) left during the 1966 season for health reasons–and they both died within a few months of their departure.)
The numbers under "Post Season?" indicate the Nth seasons in that manager’s tenure that the club earned a play-off spot. If that season is highlighted in blue, it represents a World Championship. The number after the "MoY" indicates the Nth season that manager won a Manager of the Year Award without making the play-offs. In the case of "SN MoY", it was just The Sporting News Manager of the Year award.
TSP stands for Total Success Points which is equal to the number of years he lasted plus a point for a Manager of the Year award earned without a playoff spot, plus two times the number of play-off spots, plus two times the number of World Championships. Two dots following the TSP is another indicator that managerial hiring is still active.
I’m sure you could fathom a more accurate way of measuring success, but to get a significantly better rating would require a lot more work. For example, you could get a more accurate managerial success rating if you take into account payroll, but I don’t buy that the relationship of wins to payroll is as linear as some more qualified researchers than I have maintained. At the high end, I think it takes more dollars to get those extra wins, but we are digressing.
The Age given is the manager’s age on the first game he managed after he was hired. The Age highlight colors are coded by age group. From youngest to oldest: clear, blue, green, yellow, red, magenta, gray. (For some reason, Word skips orange.)
The managers are colored coded thusly: blue: no experience; green: minor league experience only; yellow: managed at least one season for only one previous major league team; red: managed at least one season with multiple previous MLB teams.
Manager Success by Experience
Year Team New Manager Exp.? PMLS Yrs? Post Season? TSP Age
2000 Ang. Mike Scioscia Y 0 13 3,5,6,8,9 25.. 41
2000 Bal. Mike Hargrove Y 1 4 N 4 50
2000 Ch.C Don Baylor Y 1 3- N 3- 50
2000 Col. Buddy Bell Y 1 2+ N 2+ 48
2000 Det. Phil Garner Y 1 2+ N 2+ 50
2000 Mil. Davey Lopes N 0 2+ N 2+ 54
2001 Ari. Bob Brenly N 0 4- 1,2 10- 47
2001 Cin. Bob Boone Y 1 3- N 3- 53
2001 LA.D Jim Tracy Y 1 5 4 7 45
2001 Phi. Larry Bowa Y 1 4- N (MoY.1) 5- 55
2001 Pit. Lloyd McClendon N 0 5- N 5- 41
2001 Sea. Bob Melvin N 0 2 N 2 41
2001 Tor. Buck Martinez N 0 1+ N 1+ 52
2001.e T.B. Hal McRae Y 1 2- N 2- 55
2001.e Tex. Jerry Narron Y 0 2- N 2- 45
2002 Bos. Grady Little Y 0 2 2 4 52
2002 Hou. Jimy Williams Y 2 3- N 3- 58
2002 Mar. Jeff Torborg Y 4 1+ N 1+ 60
2002 Min. Ron Gardenhire Y 0 11 1,2,3,5,8,9 24.. 44
2002 M/W. Frank Robinson Y 3 5 N 5 66
2002.e Col. Clint Hurdle Y 0 7≈ 6 9 44
2002.e K.C. Tony Pena Y 0 3≈ N (MoY.2) 4 44
2002.e Tor. Carlos Tosca Y 0 2+ N 2+ 48
2003 Ch.C Dusty Baker Y 1 4 1 6 53
2003 Cle. Eric Wedge Y 0 7 5 9 35
2003 Det. Alan Trammell N 0 3 N 3 45
2003 Mil. Ned Yost Y 0 6- N (Sveum ’08) 6- 48
2003 Oak. Ken Macha Y 0 4 1,4 8 52
2003 NY.M Art Howe Y 2 2 N 2 56
2003 S.F. Felipe Alou Y 1 4 1 6 67
2003 T.B. Lou Piniella Y 3 3 N 3 59
2003 Tex. Buck Showalter Y 2 4 N (MoY.2) 5 46
2003.e Ch.W Dave Miley Y 0 2≈ N 2 40
2003.e Mar. Jack McKeon Y 4 3- 1 7- 72
2004 Bal. Lee Mazzilli Y 0 2- N 2- 49
2004 Bos. Terry Francona Y 1 8 1,2,4,5,6 22 44
2004 Ch.W Ozzie Guillen N 0 8 2,5 12 40
2004.l Hou. Phil Garner Y 2 3≈ 0,1 7 54
2004.l Tor. John Gibbons Y 0 4- N 4- 42
2005 Ari. Bob Melvin Y 1 4+ 3 6+ 43
2005 NY.M Willie Randolph N 0 3+ 2 5+ 50
2005 Phi. Charlie Manuel Y 1 8 3,4,5,6,7 20.. 61
2005 K.C. Buddy Bell Y 2 3- N 3- 53
2005 Sea. Mike Hargrove Y 2 2+ N 2+ 55
2005.e Cin. Jerry Narron Y 1 2+ N 2+ 45
2006 Det. Jim Leyland Y 3 7 1,6,7 13.. 61
2006 LA.D Gray Little Y 1 2 N 2 56
2006 Mar. Joe Girardi N 0 1 N (MoY.1) 1 41
2006 Pit. Jim Tracy Y 1 2 N 2 50
2006 T.B. Joe Maddon Y i 7 3,5,6 13.. 52
2007 Ch.C Lou Piniella Y 4 4- 1,2 8- 63
2007 Mar. Fredi Gonzalez Y 0 3- N (SN MoY.2) 4- 43
2007 Oak. Bob Geren Y 0 4+ N 4+ 45
2007 S.D. Bud Black N 0 6 N (MoY.4) 7.. 49
2007 S.F. Bruce Bochy Y 1 6 4,6 14.. 51
2007 Tex. Ron Washington Y 0 6 4,5,6 12.. 54
2007 Was. Manny Acta Y 0 3- N 3- 38
2007.e Sea. John McLaren Y 0 1≈ N 1 55
2007.l Hou. Cecil Cooper Y 0 2≈ N 2 57
2008 Cin. Dusty Baker Y 2 5 3,5 9.. 58
2008 K.C. Trey Hillman Y 0 2+ N 2+ 45
2008 LA.D Joe Torre Y 4 3 1,2 7 67
2008 NY.Y Joe Girardi Y 1 5 2,3,4,5 15.. 43
2008 Pit. John Russell Y 0 3 N 3 47
2008.e Tor. Cito Gaston Y 1 3- N 3- 64
2008.l Mil. Dale Sveum Y 0 0+ 0 (12 g.) 2+ 44
2008.l NY.M Jerry Manuel Y 1 3- N 3- 54
2009 Mil. Ken Macha Y 1 2 N 2 58
2009 Sea. Don Wakamatsu Y 0 2- N 2- 46
2009.e Ari. A.J. Hinch N 0 1+ N 1+ 34
2009.e Col. Jim Tracy Y 2 4- N (MoY.1) 5- 53
2009.l Was. Jim Riggleman Y 3 2- N 2- 56
2010.e Ari. Kirk Gibson N 0 3- 2 5-..52
2010.e K.C. Ned Yost Y 1 3- N 3-..55
2010.e Mar. Edwin Rodriguez Y 0 1≈ N 1 49
2010.l Ch.C Mike Quade Y 0 1+ N 1+ 53
2010 Cle. Manny Acta Y 1 3- N 3- 41
2010 Hou. Brad Mills Y 0 3- N 3- 53
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2011 Atl. Fredi Gonzalez Y 1 2 2 4.. 47
2011 Bal. Buck Showalter Y 3 2+ 2 4+..53
2011 LA.D Don Mattingly N 0 2 N 2.. 49
2011 Mil. Ron Roenicke Y 0 2 1 4.. 54
2011 NY.M Terry Collins Y 2 2 N 2.. 62
2011 Pit. Clint Hurdle Y 1 2 N 2.. 53
2011 Sea. Eric Wedge Y 1 2 N 2.. 43
2011 Tor. John Farrell N 0 2 N 2 48
2011.e Oak. Bob Melvin Y 2 2- 2 4-..49
2011.e Was. Davey Johnson Y 4 2- 2 4-..68
2012 Bos. Bobby Valentine Y 2 1 N 1 62
2012 Ch.C Dale Sveum Y i 1 N 1.. 48
2012 Ch.W Robin Ventura N 0 1 almost 1.. 44
2012 Mar. Ozzie Guillen Y 1 1 N 1 48
2012 StL. Mike Matheny N 0 1 1 3.. 41
Do you spot any trends? In 2000, there was a run on managers who were exactly 50 years old and had just one previous stint as a manager. That description fit three hires plus one other who was close at age 48. Then in 2001, as mentioned above, there was a run on managers with no experience at all.
The managerial fashion for 2002 was rookie major league managers with minor league experience ranging in age from 44 to 52. Five teams tried that. 2003 achieved a peak (until last year) in manager hires with previous multi-team experience. That was matched by the number of hires from the minor-league-team-only level of experience: four each.
The next three years produced no specific hiring preferences, then 2007 bested 2002’s penchant for managers with just minor league managing experience – only a wider range of ages 38 to 57. Then again there was no prevailing managerial type hired until 2011 when another slew of multi-team veterans began new stints – mixed with teams willing to try inexperienced managers.
If teams are copying the success of Mattingly, Matheny, and Ventura, why aren’t there just as many teams copying the success of multi-team hires: the A’s Bob Melvin, the Orioles’ Buck Showalter and the Nationals’ Davey Johnson? They have been even more successful this time around, so far. There may be more qualified inexperienced managerial candidates available than multi-time ex-managers who are willing to come out of retirement. I also think it is more exciting for the fans to try someone fresh than someone who had to be fired several times before.
It is even more difficult to find a pattern in the age of the manager hired. It looks like a random distribution. In fact, the year we had the youngest managerial hire of the millennium (Eric Wedge at 35 in 2003) was the same year the oldest manager was hired (Jack McKeon at 72) Yes, he was hired on an interim basis, but he came back the following season. If you don’t count him – the next oldest manager of the study was also hired in 2003: Felipe Alou.
Initially, I defined success as either: a) managing for four full years, b) winning a play-off berth, or c) winning a Manager of the Year award. Combining the manager types we come to these success rates:
Completely inexperienced managers: 8 successes, 6 failures, 2 undetermined excluding this year’s hires
Managers with only minor league experience: 15 successes, 14 failures, 1 undetermined
Managers with just one previous stint in Majors: 10 successes, 14 failures, 3 undetermined
Managers with multi-team previous experience: 12 successes, 8 failures, 1 undetermined
Hmm. You all could probably come up with a better explanation as to why a manager who has been fired once is a worse bet than a manager who has been fired multiple times or a manager who has never been fired as a manager. There probably isn’t a large enough sample size to know if one group is really a better bet than the other.
What if instead of the binary success or failure, we grade the level of success as Years + MoY Awards + 2* play-offs + 2* World Championships? With this method, it doesn’t seem right to include managerial hires of 2011 or later, because the vast majority of them are still working. Yet, very few of the 2010 hires are still with their team, so that seems like a natural ending point. So, a Total Success Point tally of all the managers hired from 2000-2010 divided by the number of those managers in each category comes to:
No managing experience: 4.53
minor league experience: 5.52
1 previous stint in Majors: 5.61
Multi-team experience: 5.04
Besides the issue of a flawed success indicator, there is also the issue that some managers may be better for team building, while others are better at putting teams in the post season. They may be equally good managers, but the latter would fare far better under TSP.
However, my study gets more fun (but not necessarily more relevant), if you look at the success rate by age of hire. Below are the total number of managers hired in each age group, the number who achieved success based on the criteria above and the number of times they did not (if they are no longer managing). The numbers in the rightmost column are the tallies of all the managers’ Total Success Points in each age group divided by the number of managers in each group. Managers hired in the last two years are not included in that last figure.
Age No. Suc. – Fail TSP/pre-2011 N
30s: 3 1 - 2 4.33
40-44: 19 12 - 5 8.58
45-49: 22 8 – 12 3.75
50-54: 24 11 – 12 4.74
55-59: 13 2 – 11 2.85
60-64: 7 3 - 3 8.94
65+: 4 4 - 0 5.90
Taking a stab at an explanation that is supported by this data: it is best for a manager to be young enough to relate to his players (under 45), but not so young as to not command their respect (under 40). Once a manager is over 50, though, he becomes wise enough to handle his players, although newly hired managers are so out of touch by 55, that even that extra wisdom doesn’t help them. However, by 60, they are well respected in a grandfatherly way.
Of course, not all managers achieved all of their success the year they were hired, but they set a standard at the start of their tenures. This is probably all just random distribution due to small sample sizes. You are supposed to come up with these types of hypotheses before you look at the data, so take it for what it is worth – probably not much.