The Mets, as an organization, are a ship adrift at sea. They are a rudderless vessel trying to avoid icebergs by waving silk tablecloths at them. The captain has abandoned ship, taking the good rum with him. In truth the captain never climbed aboard: old Ahab got drunk at the bar and misplaced his peg leg. There are no captains a harpoon’s throw from CitiField: the Mets franchise is a vessel with beautiful chandeliers and no course plotted on the charts. They are gliding towards disaster.
The signing of outfielder Jay Bruce is the latest indicator that this team, collectively, has no idea what the hell they are doing. They have no capacity to identify the specific strengths and weaknesses of their club, and no understanding of what steps they should take to return to contention. There is no ruling philosophy being tested here, no guiding principle that unifies this collection of baseball players. To call the Mets a team is to stretch the definition of that word pasts all reasonable dimensions.
None of this is a knock on Jay Bruce. Bruce is a good power hitter, and the salary being reported (3 years, $39 million) is a perfectly reasonable contract. Jay Bruce isn’t an all-star, but in the right contexts he is a valuable baseball player.
The problem is that Jay Bruce is not a useful player for the New York Mets. There are hundreds of players available in major league baseball who would capably fill the gaps that the Mets team needs if they want to take advantage of their window of contention. Instead of going after any of those players, the Mets spent $39 million on a player whose only positive is one that the Mets have amply covered, and whose many liabilities are liabilities that are going to have a negatively dominoing effect on the Mets ability to win baseball games.
I wrote about Run Element Ratio a year ago, back the Mets re-signed Yoenis Cepedes. For those who don’t remember the metric, Run Element Ratio tells you whether an offensive player is more likely to start trouble or end trouble. The equation is:
(Stolen Bases + Walks) / (Total Bases – Hits)
Players who have high RER’s are guys whose skill sets rest in setting the table: Brett Butler or Kenny Lofton or Rod Carew would be examples of effective high-RER players. Players who hit for power but don’t draw a lot of walks or hit for a high average have low RER rates.
Easy example:
Name
|
H
|
SB
|
BB
|
TB
|
RER
|
Rickey Henderson
|
3055
|
1406
|
2190
|
4588
|
2.35
|
Joe Carter
|
2184
|
231
|
527
|
3910
|
.44
|
Rickey Henderson, the greatest leadoff hitter of all-time and the greatest base stealer of all-time, has a high RER. Joe Carter, a good power hitter who didn’t walk, but managed to drive in 100 runs like clockwork, has a low RER.
RER is not a metric that expresses value: it merely tells you where, in the machine of an offense, a player would be best utilized. Rickey Henderson was terrifically good at starting the production of an offense. Joe Carter was pretty good at ending the production…at driving in the runners.
Jay Bruce is like Joe Carter: he has a low RER:
Name
|
H
|
SB
|
BB
|
TB
|
RER
|
Jay Bruce
|
1294
|
62
|
528
|
2455
|
.51
|
Jay Bruce’s value, in relation to an offense, is his capacity to finish trouble. He would be helpful on a team that needed guys capable of finishing trouble. Which teams are those?
Tm
|
H
|
SB
|
BB
|
TB
|
RER
|
BOS
|
1461
|
106
|
571
|
2305
|
.80
|
LAA
|
1314
|
136
|
523
|
2151
|
.79
|
PIT
|
1331
|
67
|
519
|
2105
|
.76
|
SFG
|
1382
|
76
|
467
|
2112
|
.74
|
STL
|
1402
|
81
|
593
|
2330
|
.73
|
Last year, Boston’s offense had the highest RER in baseball: they had a lot of players getting on base, and they had decent success moving around the bases, but they lacked players capable of clearing the deck. The same holds for the Angels.
Which teams are the least in need of a player like Jay Bruce?
Tm
|
H
|
SB
|
BB
|
TB
|
RER
|
BAL
|
1469
|
32
|
392
|
2458
|
.43
|
CHW
|
1412
|
71
|
401
|
2300
|
.53
|
KCR
|
1436
|
91
|
390
|
2323
|
.54
|
HOU
|
1581
|
98
|
509
|
2681
|
.55
|
NYM
|
1379
|
58
|
529
|
2393
|
.58
|
This, again, isn’t astonishing. The Orioles, perhaps misunderstanding Earl Weaver’s adage about three-run homers, have a lineup stacked with deck-clearers. The White Sox have young offenses trying to figure out what they’re going to be. The Astros don’t need nuthin’.
And of course, there are the Mets. The Mets had the lowest RER in the National League last year, edging out Colorado and Philladelphia.
I want to point out, again, that RER does not tell us anything of the value of a player or a team’s offensive contribution. Houston and the White Sox had similar RER’s, but no one would argue that the quality of their offenses were remotely comparable.
With the Mets, however, we know that their offense was inefficient. The Mets paced the NL in home runs, tying Milwaukee for the league lead with 224. But the Mets ranked just ninth in overall runs scored: their homeruns didn’t translate to a lot of runs being scored. As a team, the Mets hit one more homerun than the Cubs…and scored 87 fewer runs. They hit nine more homeruns than the Nationals and scored 84 fewer runs.
What the Mets needed to get, this off-season, was a player like Dee Gordon (RER: 1.93): a player capable of starting trouble. Perhaps they could’ve asked about Delino DeShields (1.97) or Cameron Maybin (1.56) or Jarrod Dyson (1.69). They could’ve kicked the tires on Rajai Davis for a fraction of what Bruce signed for. They could’ve asked the Reds about Billy Hamilton. Hell, Jose Bautista still knows how to draw a walk…why not throw a few million bucks at him and slot him in as your leadoff guy?
Here’s a list of players who had the highest RER’s in the majors last year (minimum 200 plate appearances):
Name
|
Team
|
H
|
BB
|
SB
|
TB
|
RER
|
Tony Wolters
|
Rockies
|
55
|
33
|
0
|
65
|
3.30
|
Kelby Tomlinson
|
Giants
|
50
|
23
|
9
|
61
|
2.91
|
Omar Narvaez
|
White Sox
|
70
|
38
|
0
|
86
|
2.38
|
Tyler Saladino
|
White Sox
|
45
|
23
|
5
|
58
|
2.15
|
Greg Garcia
|
Cardinals
|
61
|
37
|
2
|
80
|
2.05
|
Billy Hamilton
|
Reds
|
144
|
44
|
59
|
195
|
2.02
|
Delino DeShields
|
Rangers
|
101
|
44
|
29
|
138
|
1.97
|
Gor. Hernandez
|
Giants
|
79
|
31
|
12
|
101
|
1.95
|
Logan Forsythe
|
Dodgers
|
81
|
69
|
3
|
118
|
1.95
|
Dee Gordon
|
Marlins
|
201
|
25
|
60
|
245
|
1.93
|
Eric Sogard
|
Brewers
|
68
|
45
|
3
|
94
|
1.85
|
Gregor Blanco
|
D’Backs
|
55
|
31
|
15
|
80
|
1.84
|
Ben Revere
|
Angels
|
80
|
15
|
21
|
100
|
1.80
|
Mallex Smith
|
Rays
|
69
|
23
|
16
|
91
|
1.77
|
Jarrod Dyson
|
- - -
|
49
|
22
|
0
|
62
|
1.69
|
Andrew Knapp
|
Phillies
|
44
|
31
|
1
|
63
|
1.68
|
Jarrod Dyson
|
Mariners
|
87
|
28
|
28
|
121
|
1.65
|
Jace Peterson
|
Braves
|
40
|
27
|
3
|
59
|
1.58
|
Cameron Maybin
|
- - -
|
90
|
51
|
33
|
144
|
1.56
|
Brad Miller
|
Rays
|
68
|
63
|
5
|
114
|
1.48
|
Bruce Maxwell
|
Athletics
|
52
|
31
|
0
|
73
|
1.48
|
Rajai Davis
|
- - -
|
79
|
27
|
29
|
117
|
1.47
|
Jon Jay
|
Cubs
|
112
|
37
|
6
|
142
|
1.43
|
Dansby Swanson
|
Braves
|
113
|
59
|
3
|
158
|
1.38
|
Robbie Grossman
|
Twins
|
94
|
67
|
3
|
145
|
1.37
|
Matt Szczur
|
- - -
|
44
|
34
|
0
|
69
|
1.36
|
Jose Peraza
|
Reds
|
126
|
20
|
23
|
158
|
1.34
|
Dustin Pedroia
|
Red Sox
|
119
|
49
|
4
|
159
|
1.33
|
Jacoby Ellsbury
|
Yankees
|
94
|
41
|
22
|
143
|
1.29
|
Starling Marte
|
Pirates
|
85
|
20
|
21
|
117
|
1.28
|
Cliff Pennington
|
Angels
|
49
|
16
|
3
|
64
|
1.27
|
Miguel Rojas
|
Marlins
|
79
|
27
|
2
|
102
|
1.26
|
David Freese
|
Pirates
|
112
|
58
|
0
|
158
|
1.26
|
Brandon Nimmo
|
Mets
|
46
|
33
|
2
|
74
|
1.25
|
Daniel Nava
|
Phillies
|
55
|
26
|
1
|
77
|
1.23
|
Stephen Piscotty
|
Cardinals
|
80
|
52
|
3
|
125
|
1.22
|
Ichiro Suzuki
|
Marlins
|
50
|
17
|
1
|
65
|
1.20
|
Cesar Hernandez
|
Phillies
|
150
|
61
|
15
|
215
|
1.17
|
Daniel Robertson
|
Rays
|
45
|
29
|
1
|
71
|
1.15
|
Joe Mauer
|
Twins
|
160
|
66
|
2
|
219
|
1.15
|
Ian Desmond
|
Rockies
|
93
|
24
|
15
|
127
|
1.15
|
Chris Gimenez
|
Twins
|
41
|
33
|
1
|
71
|
1.13
|
Ezequiel Carrera
|
Blue Jays
|
81
|
30
|
10
|
117
|
1.11
|
Allen Cordoba
|
Padres
|
42
|
18
|
2
|
60
|
1.11
|
Trea Turner
|
Nationals
|
117
|
30
|
46
|
186
|
1.10
|
You’re telling me that the Mets couldn’t find someone on that list who could set the table for their power hitters, for a fraction of the cost than they spent on Jay Bruce? They could have…very easily. They just haven’t realized what the problem is.
And the problem isn’t just that the Mets are going to have a bunch of power hitters slugging solo homers and losing baseball games in 2017. The signing of Jay Bruce has broader ramifications for the entire team. The signing of Jay Bruce means that when Michael Conforto returns, the Mets will have to find playing time for him in an outfield that already had Cespedes, Bruce, Juan Lagares, and Brandon Nimmo all vying for playing time.
And this is a team that has deep pitching staff, playing home games on a reasonably big outfield…wouldn’t you like to support that pitching staff by having decent defense in the wide open spaces?
Signing Jay Bruce pressurizes everything. It forces someone like Cespedes…who should play a corner position because he a) has a strong arm, and b) struggles with balls hit directly at him…to play out of his comfort zone. It causes the younger players…the guys you should be trying to build your team around….to spend all their time worrying about how they’re going to sneak in at-bats around the millionaire free agents. Worse: the Mets will experiment with playing one of their outfielders in the infield: there is a not-slim chance that Jay Bruce is going to learn first-base mid-season. I’m sure that won’t have any effect on his hitting. And all of this juggling invariably stresses the pitching staff, who would probably prefer having outfielders capable of catching the occasional fly ball.
Bruce pressurizes everything…and he solves nothing. That isn’t a slight on him: he is a good player, and there are many baseball teams that would be improved with him in their lineup. But the Mets are the last team that needs a player like Jay Bruce: they have lots of players just like him, and no place for him. His presence on their roster is an expensive extravagance on a team that has real needs that could easily be addressed. Instead the Mets bought a golden doorknob for a ship without lifeboats.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in western Virginia. He welcomes comments, questions, and angry rebuttals from Mets fans here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.