July 12 Poll Report
Good morning everybody. The much-abused Beto O’Rourke had a good day in my poll yesterday, not a great day, but we had him pegged to finish second in the poll at 28%, and he actually won the poll at 34%. He dropped off the gray list yesterday; his Support Score is now the highest it has been in two weeks, so there could be a little bit of a recovery going on there. He’s got a long way to go to get back where he was. These are the poll results from yesterday:
Scores
|
Hickenlooper
|
268
|
O'Rourke
|
338
|
Yang
|
354
|
Weld
|
245
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Predicted
|
Hickenlooper
|
22
|
O'Rourke
|
28
|
Yang
|
29
|
Weld
|
20
|
Actual
|
Hickenlooper
|
18
|
O'Rourke
|
34
|
Yang
|
33
|
Weld
|
15
|
The removal of the old poll, the poll of May 22, was a true non-event. The persons listed in that poll were Jeff Flake, Stacey Abrams, Wayne Messam and Howard Schultz. Flake, Abrams and Messam are already gone from the system, so their numbers had already been removed from the data; Schultz is still active. . .well, he is inactive, but he is still a candidate. . .but since the other guys had already been removed, there is no one left in that poll for Schultz to be compared to, so it was already gone from his standpoint, as well.
And there were no secondary effects from yesterday’s poll that register on the Support-o-Meter, so the only four candidates whose scores have moved more than a point or two since yesterday are the four who were polled yesterday:
Beto O’Rourke is up 10 points,
Andrew Yang is up 9 points,
John Hickenlooper-Scooper is down 9 points, and
Bill Weld is down 12 points,
All of those as a result of yesterday’s poll.
These are the updated Support Scores:
Rank
|
First
|
Last
|
Support
|
1
|
Elizabeth
|
Warren
|
1841
|
2
|
Pete
|
Buttigieg
|
1008
|
3
|
Joe
|
Biden
|
955
|
4
|
Kamala
|
Harris
|
820
|
5
|
Donald
|
Trump
|
536
|
6
|
Amy
|
Klobuchar
|
504
|
7
|
Julian
|
Castro
|
450
|
8
|
Bernie
|
Sanders
|
437
|
9
|
Andrew
|
Yang
|
363
|
10
|
Cory
|
Booker
|
351
|
11
|
Beto
|
O'Rourke
|
348
|
12
|
Jay
|
Inslee
|
289
|
13
|
Kirsten
|
Gillibrand
|
269
|
14
|
John
|
Hickenlooper
|
259
|
15
|
Bill
|
Weld
|
233
|
16
|
Tulsi
|
Gabbard
|
230
|
17
|
Michael
|
Bennet
|
168
|
18
|
Steve
|
Bullock
|
115
|
19
|
Howard
|
Schultz
|
108
|
20
|
Tim
|
Ryan
|
108
|
21
|
John
|
Delaney
|
106
|
22
|
Seth
|
Moulton
|
88
|
23
|
Marianne
|
Williamson
|
84
|
24
|
Mike
|
Gravel
|
77
|
25
|
Bill
|
de Blasio
|
77
|
Marianne Williamson has dropped off the Green List for the first time since I started using the Green/Gray highlighting, although she is still just a point or two away from being green.
Quiet day. Short report. Finished my report this morning before I finished my morning cup of coffee. Thanks for reading.