July 16 Poll Report
Good morning everybody. There was an un-intended pun in yesterday’s polling matchups, in that we had both Moulton and Weld in the group; of course, in Welding you use Molten metal. . . .they call it molten lead, although, like the lead in a pencil, it isn’t actually lead; that’s just what they call it.
Not too much happened in yesterday’s poll; the prediction was 94% accurate, which means, of course, that the outcome of the vote was 94% consistent with previous polling. The only thing that happened was that Joe Biden lost one point to Weld, one point to Molten, and one point to de Blasio. Although he still won the group by 48 points:
Scores
|
Weld
|
237
|
Moulton
|
89
|
de Blasio
|
103
|
Biden
|
944
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Predicted
|
Weld
|
17
|
Moulton
|
6
|
de Blasio
|
8
|
Biden
|
69
|
Actual
|
Weld
|
18
|
Moulton
|
7
|
de Blasio
|
9
|
Biden
|
66
|
The only meaningful changes in the Support Scores since yesterday are that Elizabeth Warren is up 54 points and Joe Biden is down 26 points; otherwise just small adjustments. Warren is up as a result of the removal of the May 26th poll from the relevant data; she will move up again on Thursday, when we remove the May 28th polling data from the group. She had not reached her peak by late May; her surge ended in early June, but she was still moving upward in late May, so that data is still holding her back a little bit. On May 26th she beat Joe Biden in the poll, 53-39. She would beat him now by a significantly wider margin than that.
Biden was also in the May 26th poll (you just said that), so he was a double-dipper yesterday, in both the day’s poll and the one being cut out of the data. His 26-point decline is explained more by the removal of the May 26th poll than by yesterday’s vote, although he also did under-perform a little in yesterday’s poll. To be honest, I am surprised by how slowly Biden is declining. His Support Score has declined by 23% in the last 30 days. If you had asked me 30 days ago, I would have guessed that he would decline more rapidly than that. What I now realize is that Biden’s support isn’t ALL just name recognition; it is a combination of name recognition and the desire for a centrist Democrat. I don’t think that anybody who has seen him on TV recently actually thinks that he is up to the job; it’s just the lack of a good alternative in the center.
These are the updated Support Scores:
Rank
|
First
|
Last
|
Support
|
1
|
Elizabeth
|
Warren
|
1863
|
2
|
Pete
|
Buttigieg
|
1001
|
3
|
Joe
|
Biden
|
918
|
4
|
Kamala
|
Harris
|
804
|
5
|
Donald
|
Trump
|
580
|
6
|
Amy
|
Klobuchar
|
479
|
7
|
Julian
|
Castro
|
448
|
8
|
Andrew
|
Yang
|
412
|
9
|
Bernie
|
Sanders
|
398
|
10
|
Beto
|
O'Rourke
|
318
|
11
|
Cory
|
Booker
|
316
|
12
|
Jay
|
Inslee
|
300
|
13
|
Kirsten
|
Gillibrand
|
261
|
14
|
John
|
Hickenlooper
|
261
|
15
|
Bill
|
Weld
|
236
|
16
|
Tulsi
|
Gabbard
|
236
|
17
|
Michael
|
Bennet
|
170
|
18
|
Howard
|
Schultz
|
166
|
19
|
John
|
Delaney
|
131
|
20
|
Tim
|
Ryan
|
119
|
21
|
Bill
|
de Blasio
|
104
|
22
|
Steve
|
Bullock
|
104
|
23
|
Marianne
|
Williamson
|
91
|
24
|
Seth
|
Moulton
|
85
|
25
|
Mike
|
Gravel
|
80
|
I should alert you that I will be traveling beginning next week, and I may not be able to do daily updates every day. I’ll try to do them, but there will be some days when I don’t get them done. Thanks for reading.