July 21 Poll Report
Good morning everybody. Yesterday’s poll involved two candidates a little below 1% and two candidates around 3%, so there was not a lot at stake in that contest. The two "serious" candidates, the three-percenters, were Kirsten Gillibrand and Beto O’Rourke. Gillibrand stole ten percentage points from O’Rourke’s expected vote share to win the day:
Scores
|
Gravel
|
79
|
Williamson
|
98
|
Gillibrand
|
272
|
O'Rourke
|
340
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Predicted
|
Gravel
|
10
|
Williamson
|
12
|
Gillibrand
|
34
|
O'Rourke
|
43
|
Actual
|
Gravel
|
12
|
Williamson
|
11
|
Gillibrand
|
44
|
O'Rourke
|
33
|
Gillibrand was also in the old poll, removed from the data, the poll of May 31; the removal of that poll also helped her a little, so she was the day’s big winner. Since yesterday:
Kirsten Gillibrand is up 16 points as a result of the combined effects of yesterday’s poll and the removal of the May 31 poll.
Michael Bennet continues his charge, moving up another 13 points as a result of the removal of the May 31 poll from the data considered relevant.
Cory Booker is down 11 points as a result of the removal of the May 31 poll; however, Booker is doing very well in the poll which is currently running, and will probably be back up tomorrow.
Beto O’Rourke is down 12 points as a result of his underperformance in yesterday’s poll.
Did any of these guys appear on the Sunday morning shows? I missed those shows this morning; went to church. I guess I’ll see them on the clips.
These are the updated Support Scores:
Rank
|
First
|
Last
|
Support
|
1
|
Elizabeth
|
Warren
|
1860
|
2
|
Pete
|
Buttigieg
|
975
|
3
|
Joe
|
Biden
|
936
|
4
|
Kamala
|
Harris
|
816
|
5
|
Donald
|
Trump
|
605
|
6
|
Amy
|
Klobuchar
|
455
|
7
|
Andrew
|
Yang
|
449
|
8
|
Julian
|
Castro
|
435
|
9
|
Bernie
|
Sanders
|
398
|
10
|
Beto
|
O'Rourke
|
328
|
11
|
Cory
|
Booker
|
306
|
12
|
Kirsten
|
Gillibrand
|
288
|
13
|
John
|
Hickenlooper
|
268
|
14
|
Jay
|
Inslee
|
268
|
15
|
Tulsi
|
Gabbard
|
250
|
16
|
Bill
|
Weld
|
220
|
17
|
Michael
|
Bennet
|
194
|
18
|
Howard
|
Schultz
|
169
|
19
|
John
|
Delaney
|
127
|
20
|
Tim
|
Ryan
|
120
|
21
|
Bill
|
de Blasio
|
105
|
22
|
Marianne
|
Williamson
|
97
|
23
|
Steve
|
Bullock
|
94
|
24
|
Seth
|
Moulton
|
84
|
25
|
Mike
|
Gravel
|
80
|
It is a shame there isn’t anyone named "Rhodes" running for the office; we could have the Gravel-Rhodes ticket. Thanks for reading.