July 25 Poll Report
Good evening everybody.
You know that thing that happens when a minor leaguer is hitting .325 with power so he gets called up, but he doesn’t make the grade his first shot and winds up back in the minors? That’s what has just happened to Julian Castro. Castro got good reviews from the June 27 Democratic debate, and (presumably as a result of said debate) had been climbing rapidly in the polls. Climbing in the polls is the polling equivalent of hitting .325 in the minors. Castro got 44% in one of my polls recently—against John Delaney, Kirsten Gillibrand and Michael Bennet. When that happens in my polls, the randomized algorithm that tends to pit strong candidates against other strong candidates promotes you to a higher level, so Julian Castro was matched up yesterday against Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg.
He got crushed.
It’s not the end of the world. Mike Schmidt hit under .196 as a rookie. Willie Mays was hitting .477 at Minneapolis, started his major league career 1-for-26. Jim Thome in 1992 hit .205 with a .299 slugging percentage in 40 games, was back in the minors for most of the 1993 season. The Mariners kept sending Edgar Martinez back down to the minors for several years.
Anyway, these are the results of yesterday’s poll:
Scores
|
Sanders
|
397
|
Warren
|
1867
|
Buttigieg
|
969
|
Castro
|
461
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Predicted
|
Sanders
|
11
|
Warren
|
51
|
Buttigieg
|
26
|
Castro
|
12
|
Actual
|
Sanders
|
12
|
Warren
|
53
|
Buttigieg
|
29
|
Castro
|
6
|
The prediction for the poll was 87% accurate. The prediction was basically perfect, except that Castro got half of the support we expected him to get, which knocked his Support Score in a cocked hat. Since yesterday:
Elizabeth Warren is up 41 points as a result of yesterday’s poll.
Pete Buttigieg is up 25 points as a result of yesterday’s poll.
Bernie Sanders is up 15 points, but
Julian Castro is down 66 points.
The deleted poll (June 4) is basically a non-event, doesn’t really affect where anybody is. These are the updated Support Scores:
Rank
|
First
|
Last
|
Support
|
1
|
Elizabeth
|
Warren
|
1908
|
2
|
Pete
|
Buttigieg
|
994
|
3
|
Joe
|
Biden
|
909
|
4
|
Kamala
|
Harris
|
826
|
5
|
Donald
|
Trump
|
537
|
6
|
Amy
|
Klobuchar
|
460
|
7
|
Andrew
|
Yang
|
445
|
8
|
Bernie
|
Sanders
|
412
|
9
|
Julian
|
Castro
|
384
|
10
|
Cory
|
Booker
|
345
|
11
|
Beto
|
O'Rourke
|
330
|
12
|
Kirsten
|
Gillibrand
|
285
|
13
|
Tulsi
|
Gabbard
|
266
|
14
|
Jay
|
Inslee
|
255
|
15
|
John
|
Hickenlooper
|
247
|
16
|
Michael
|
Bennet
|
231
|
17
|
Bill
|
Weld
|
219
|
18
|
Howard
|
Schultz
|
167
|
19
|
Tim
|
Ryan
|
135
|
20
|
John
|
Delaney
|
116
|
21
|
Steve
|
Bullock
|
114
|
22
|
Marianne
|
Williamson
|
96
|
23
|
Bill
|
de Blasio
|
88
|
24
|
Seth
|
Moulton
|
82
|
25
|
Mike
|
Gravel
|
82
|
Thank you for your interest.