July 28 Poll Report
Good afternoon everybody. It’s morning in California; I’m in California at the moment. Anyway, this is what I have to tell you: a Poll of four of the weakest candidates in the field which is 96% consistent with previous polling has almost no effect on the Support Scores. In yesterday’s poll of four candidates who among them control about 4% of the vote, every candidate finished within one point of what we would have expected based on previous polling:
Scores
|
Ryan
|
136
|
Williamson
|
95
|
de Blasio
|
85
|
Delaney
|
112
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Predicted
|
Ryan
|
32
|
Williamson
|
22
|
de Blasio
|
20
|
Delaney
|
26
|
Actual
|
Ryan
|
31
|
Williamson
|
23
|
de Blasio
|
21
|
Delaney
|
25
|
Tim Ryan "won" the poll with 32%, but it has no effect on his Support Score. Removed from the data considered relevant was the poll of June 7, which involved Donald Trump, John Hickenlooper, and two candidates who have since been removed from the data. Since yesterday:
Donald Trump is up 16 points as a result of the removal of the June 7th poll, and
John Hickenlooper is down 16 points as a result of the removal of that poll.
That’s it; those are the only updates that I have for you this morning. The total number of points changing hands on the day was 55, which was the lowest number in more than a month. Here are the updated Support Scores:
Rank
|
First
|
Last
|
Support
|
1
|
Elizabeth
|
Warren
|
1844
|
2
|
Kamala
|
Harris
|
1021
|
3
|
Pete
|
Buttigieg
|
1004
|
4
|
Joe
|
Biden
|
800
|
5
|
Donald
|
Trump
|
583
|
6
|
Amy
|
Klobuchar
|
457
|
7
|
Bernie
|
Sanders
|
411
|
8
|
Andrew
|
Yang
|
409
|
9
|
Julian
|
Castro
|
379
|
10
|
Cory
|
Booker
|
352
|
11
|
Beto
|
O'Rourke
|
339
|
12
|
Kirsten
|
Gillibrand
|
284
|
13
|
Tulsi
|
Gabbard
|
272
|
14
|
Jay
|
Inslee
|
256
|
15
|
John
|
Hickenlooper
|
230
|
16
|
Michael
|
Bennet
|
225
|
17
|
Bill
|
Weld
|
212
|
18
|
Howard
|
Schultz
|
158
|
19
|
Tim
|
Ryan
|
135
|
20
|
Steve
|
Bullock
|
114
|
21
|
John
|
Delaney
|
111
|
22
|
Marianne
|
Williamson
|
95
|
23
|
Bill
|
de Blasio
|
85
|
24
|
Seth
|
Moulton
|
82
|
25
|
Mike
|
Gravel
|
81
|
Thank you all for your interest. It’s Sunday; go do something fun.