July 6 Poll Report

July 6, 2019
 

July 6 Poll Report

 

            Good morning everybody.  To the surprise of no one who has been paying attention, Joe Biden in yesterday’s poll substantially under-performed expectations based on previous polling.   Julian Castro picked up almost all of the fleeing Biden supporters, thus moving from 11th to 9th place among the 28 candidates being tested, essentially tied with the also-surging Andrew Yang, and, at least for now, a hair ahead of Yang.   This is yesterday’s poll:

Scores

Klobuchar

503

Abrams

270

Biden

1026

Castro

290

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Predicted

Klobuchar

24

Abrams

13

Biden

49

Castro

14

Actual

Klobuchar

25

Abrams

16

Biden

35

Castro

24

 

            Castro +10, Abrams +3, Klobuchar +1, Biden negative 14.  Since yesterday:

            Joe Biden is down 69 points.  You can think whatever you want to think, but what I think is that Joe Biden (a) was never actually in first place, (b) is too old to do the job, and (c) was never up to the job when he was in his prime.  He doesn’t have the political skills to reach that level, unless he gets very lucky.  He’s a good man; he’s better qualified for the Presidency than 95 people out of 100.  But he’s just not sharp enough, not honest enough, not straight-forward enough and not a deep enough thinker to be that one guy in 50 million who OUGHT to be President, like Obama or Bill Clinton.  His scores are falling, not only in my poll—where he is now at 9%--but in the other polls, where he is now around 20%.   He will continue to fall until he reaches 4 or 5%, and probably drops out.

            That said, he COULD win the nomination.  What he needs to do to win the nomination is to find himself isolated in a one-on-one matchup with someone who is too radical, someone who represents cutting-edge Democratic impulses.  If Iowa and Vermont come down to Biden and somebody who advocates a universal income or something, Biden could win.   But I think it is hugely unlikely. 

            Julian Castro is up 58 points as a result of yesterday’s poll.  There is no doubt that this is a real phenomenon. 

            Elizabeth Warren is down 51 points as a secondary adjustment, and has dropped 113 points in two days.   I do not believe that Warren is actually losing support; I don’t believe she is actually gaining support now, either, but I don’t see evidence that she is losing support.  It’s a wrinkle in the polling.  We establish Warren’s position with respect to those she has been polled against.  Because they are leaders in the Democratic field, she has been polled repeatedly against Joe Biden, so when Biden’s score drops, Warren’s position estimate drops to the extent that our estimate of where she is depends on our estimate of where Biden is, thus, where she is relative to Biden.   Biden has dropped 7% since yesterday; Warren has dropped 2.6%, but her Support Score is so large that a 2.6% drop for her is 51 points.  It is probably not a real phenomenon.

            Coincidentally, Warren has dropped off the Green List for the first time since I added that feature to the daily reports.  The Green List is the list of candidates who are up 25% in the last 30 days, and who are highlighted in green on the chart below.   Warren has been green since I started doing that several weeks ago and is not today, which is not connected AT ALL to her little drop in the Support Score.  She dropped off the Green List because it has been 30 days since her surge in the polls pushed her from 1314 (June 4) to 1652 (June 6).  It was just her time to drop off of that list; her surge is over. 

            Pete Buttigieg is off 27 points as a secondary adjustment.   Buttigieg is having some actual challenges, but he is being polled today—now—and that poll is going almost exactly according to expectations so far.   Buttigieg may lose a couple more points tomorrow, but he’s been going 2-3-2-3-2-3 with Biden for a month, and with Biden dropping he is now a solid #2, and figures to stay there for the foreseeable future.

            Andrew Yang is up 23 points as a result of the removal of the May 17th poll from the data considered relevant.   The May 17 poll was Gillibrand (43), Yang (25), Weld (20) and Schultz (12).   Yang is stronger now than he was then, so the removal of that poll moves his score forward, although he drops from 9th to 10th place because Castro has passed him on the outside.

            Stacey Abrams is up 18 points as a result of her surprising performance in yesterday’s poll.

            Kirsten Gillibrand is down 16 points as a result of the removal of the May 17th poll from the positioning data.

            Jay Inslee is up 15 points as a secondary adjustment.  His 241 Support Score is the highest it has been since June 4, when he was at 271.

            Bill Weld is up 10 points as a result of the removal of the May 17 poll.

            Tulsi Gabbard is up 10 points, Jeff Flake up 7 points, John Hickenlooper up 7 and Kamala Harris down 9 points as secondary or technical adjustments.  

            These are the updated standings:

Rank

First

Last

Current

1

Elizabeth

Warren

1887

2

Pete

Buttigieg

1013

3

Joe

Biden

957

4

Kamala

Harris

831

5

Amy

Klobuchar

504

6

Donald

Trump

461

7

Bernie

Sanders

434

8

Cory

Booker

398

9

Julian

Castro

348

10

Andrew

Yang

346

11

Beto

O'Rourke

327

12

Stacey

Abrams

288

13

Kirsten

Gillibrand

261

14

Jay

Inslee

242

15

John

Hickenlooper

241

16

Bill

Weld

227

17

Tulsi

Gabbard

196

18

Michael

Bennet

137

19

Jeff

Flake

125

20

Tim

Ryan

102

21

Howard

Schultz

99

22

Steve

Bullock

95

23

Eric

Swalwell

93

24

Seth

Moulton

84

25

John

Delaney

80

26

Marianne

Williamson

75

27

Mike

Gravel

69

28

Bill

de Blasio

60

 

            Thank you for your interest.  If you are reading these every day and wondering how long Marianne Williamson can stay on the Green List. . .she’ll probably drop off on July 12.  We’ll poll her again on July 10.  If she does well on that poll she may be able to stay on the Green List, but she’ll have to do really well.  

           

           

 
 

COMMENTS (5 Comments, most recent shown first)

StatsGuru
Of course, Biden actually won the poll and Castro came in third. I do understand that the point is to see who is gaining ground and who is losing ground, but if I were Biden and paying attention to this site, I would be touting how I beat everyone else easily. :-)
6:07 PM Jul 6th
 
LesLein
Biden was never the brightest bulb, but it seems like age has caught up. The other day he said Russia never would have interfered in the election if he and Obama had been in power. He also takes the occasional cheap shot, like saying Republicans wanted to put blacks back in chains. To be fair, he's not alone in doing this.

Castro's chances are looking up. I don't know his position on a universal basic income, but he supports a green new deal. Its fact sheet calls for welfare payments for those "unable to work."

Castro recently slipped up when he compared the Betsy Ross flag to the Confederate flag. First, his history is wrong. Betsy Ross was a Quaker. Quakers were early abolitionists. I doubt if most Democrats appreciate a candidate who disdains his own country.
5:21 PM Jul 6th
 
MarisFan61
P.S. Not a major thing, but, in what I said about the 1st comment, I had misread it.
I thought he meant to indicate that Biden isn't notably lacking in honesty or straight-forwardness, which I think he isn't (as politicians go).
4:25 PM Jul 6th
 
MarisFan61
I agree with the below comment, but I agree with Bill on the basic point -- including that Biden could still win the nomination (and the election). It's not hard at all to envision scenarios for it.

BTW, this is perhaps a captious point, but since this site is a highly numerate one, I think it ought to be made:
IMO and I think close to factually, "better qualified for the Presidency than 95 people out of 100" greatly understates it for Biden. He's better qualified for the presidency than 999 people out of 1000.

I think that in general we greatly underrate what it takes to be in high political roles, much like now I think most people underrate the ability level of even the 'worst' major league players. Even someone who 'stinks,' even guys who don't make it past the mid-level minors, like when Michael Jordan, at age 31, having not played competitive baseball for about 15 years, hit .202 in AA -- to me, that was extremely impressive; that's a guy whose basic baseball talent is extremely high, and what he did was remarkable. I think of how in my high school, the varsity players were the handful best from among several hundred, yet only a couple of them made it into organized baseball, and neither of those made it past a cup of coffee in the minors. Major league ball is just a completely different level than what most of us can imagine.

I think it's likewise for high political office -- not quite to the extent of how that is about baseball, but yeah. And the presence of someone like Trump in the highest office of all can obscure it, because of his clear lackings. But even Trump: He has all kinds of qualities that maybe we take for granted or don't even notice, because all presidents (in our lifetime) have had them (maybe not Millard Fillmore or Chester Alan Arthur, I don't know), like the ability to keep a strong presence in the face of no-matter-what, a consistent articulateness (even if it's an inarticulate articulateness), maintaining a certain kind of focus, and, well, being able to just get up (more or less) each and every morning and do the many visible and not-so-visible things that are required.

I don't know if 5 people out of 100 have even just those qualities, before we get to the rest of what we expect from a president and what Biden does have. I think it's closer to say that he's better qualified for the Presidency than 999 people out of 1000.

Although, I know that maybe this all is captious. (Good word.) :-)
It's quite possible that Bill didn't mean what he said in any 'numerate' way, just giving arbitrary numbers to get an idea across -- and I'm with the idea.
4:12 PM Jul 6th
 
TudorFever
Your larger point about Biden makes sense, but “honest” and “straight-forward” are not exactly the first two adjectives that come to mind when most people think of Bill Clinton.
1:42 PM Jul 6th
 
 
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