July 7 Poll Report

July 7, 2019
 

July 7 Poll Report

 

            Good morning everybody.  Yesterday’s Poll was truly nothing happening, as it almost perfectly matched our expectations based on previous polling:

Scores

Weld

227

Buttigieg

1013

Inslee

242

Ryan

102

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Predicted

Weld

14

Buttigieg

64

Inslee

15

Ryan

6

Actual

Weld

15

Buttigieg

63

Inslee

15

Ryan

6

 

            Weld took one point away from Buttigieg; otherwise these candidates appear to be exactly where we thought they were.   Removed from the data was the poll of May 17, which was Castro (35%), Gabbard (35%), Flake (17%), and Bennet (13%). 

            Watching the Sunday morning news shows as I am writing this.  Man, these people have NO clue what is happening in the race.  They’re just dense.  Willfully ignorant.   I’ve been defending Chuck Todd, but he’s now making no effort to understand other people’s positions. I must have seen 20 experts on the various shows.  Maybe three or four of them have some idea what is going on.   It’s the exact same feeling I had in the 1970s, early 1980s, listening to sportscasters analyze baseball games based on batting average, base stealing and batting with runners in scoring position.   Martha Raddatz is OK; Howard Kurtz makes hundreds of thousands of dollars a year for a reason. 

90% of the morning "analysis" is just competitive Trump-bashing; I hate Trump more than you do.  No, I hate Trump more than you do.   I hate Trump WAY more than either one of you.   Not that I am asking them to stop hating Trump; what I want from them is actual understanding.  Buttigieg beat Biden in fund-raising; they just completely write it off; Buttigieg has some appeal among coastal elites, one genius said.   But he’s only at 4% in the polls. 

            Biden was stupid to apologize for Kamala Harris’ silly attack on him; I haven’t seen an analyst yet who recognized that.  They’re all saying that he should have apologized two weeks ago.  Harris attacked him with an essentially indefensible approach because there was political advantage in it.   What he should have done it make her defend it.  But he didn’t, because frankly he is old and clueless and playing a game he doesn’t understand.   You’re in a political campaign, Joe; people are going to attack you.  They’re not attacking you because you have made mistakes; they are attacking you because you are in a political campaign.  His apology merely invites more attacks. 

            OK, back to the actual analysis.  Since yesterday, given the poll which matched expectations and thus doesn’t change anything, only three candidates have moved by as much as six points:

            Julian Castro is up 12 points due to the removal of the May 17th poll.   This is how I say it, but what it really is that Castro has done BETTER in the polls since May 17; thus, when we remove the May 17 poll from the relevant data, he looks better.

            Michael Bennet is up 6 points due to the removal of the May 17th poll, and

            Tulsi Gabbard is down 16 points due to the removal of the May 17th poll.   The standings on the morning of May 17 had Gabbard at 176 and Castro at 194; thus, Castro and Gabbard tying at 35% in that poll was pretty much the expected result.  Gabbard is still in that range while Castro is about twice that, so recognizing that that poll is now irrelevant helps Castro, hurts Gabbard. 

            The updated standings:

           

Rank

First

Last

Current

1

Elizabeth

Warren

1889

2

Pete

Buttigieg

1012

3

Joe

Biden

958

4

Kamala

Harris

833

5

Amy

Klobuchar

505

6

Donald

Trump

462

7

Bernie

Sanders

434

8

Cory

Booker

398

9

Julian

Castro

360

10

Andrew

Yang

346

11

Beto

O'Rourke

326

12

Stacey

Abrams

289

13

Kirsten

Gillibrand

262

14

Jay

Inslee

241

15

John

Hickenlooper

241

16

Bill

Weld

228

17

Tulsi

Gabbard

180

18

Michael

Bennet

143

19

Jeff

Flake

121

20

Tim

Ryan

100

21

Howard

Schultz

99

22

Steve

Bullock

95

23

Eric

Swalwell

93

24

Seth

Moulton

83

25

John

Delaney

80

26

Marianne

Williamson

75

27

Mike

Gravel

69

28

Bill

de Blasio

60

 

            In the poll that is currently running Kamala Harris is outperforming expectations by 10 points, so there may be bigger news tomorrow.  Thanks.

 
 

COMMENTS (9 Comments, most recent shown first)

MarisFan61
BBF25: As per what it seem Taosjohn also meant, suppose the objectively justified thing for a neutral knowledgeable person to do about Trump being elected is to cry?
11:42 PM Jul 8th
 
Baritone
As a Democrat, I look at the primaries as a competition to try to figure out who has the best chance to beat Trump. Ideology is important to me, but not as important as this bottom line. IMO any Democrat running is vastly superior to DT so I will vote for, work for, and donate to whoever ends up with the nomination. However, to use a sports analogy, I want the best player for my team. What Harris demonstrated at the debate is that Biden can't hit the curve ball. She also demonstrated that she is smart and tough. I probably like Sanders and Warren better ideologically, but Harris is looking like the best candidate right now.
12:32 PM Jul 8th
 
OldBackstop
Kamala got attention and took down Joe a peg....but raising the specter of heavyhanded government interjections in race isn't going to help erode the white vote that is Trump's base. It's going to scare them off more than Hillary did.

But Kamala doesn't profile to turn out the black vote as a given. She is Indian and Jamaican, the daughter of a Stanford professsor, and as a badass prosecutor championed the three strikes life felony laws despised by black activists. You will hear more race baiting from her in order to cave out her bona fides with the AAs.
10:56 AM Jul 8th
 
taosjohn
Y'know--I would find it easier to take a journalist seriously if they cried at the election of Trump.
8:52 AM Jul 8th
 
BarryBondsFan25
Sabermetrics politics:


According to federal campaign finance filings, those who identified as journalists, reporters, news editors or news anchors gave a total of $396,000 to presidential campaigns in 2016. $382,000 of that went to the Clinton campaign. Source- Unfreedom of the Press, Mark Levin.

Chuck Todd is a democrat. His wife is a democrat. Todd has contributed to the campaigns of Democrats.

Martha Raddatz cried on television the night Trump was elected.

How anybody can take these two as serious journalists is beyond me.


5:17 AM Jul 8th
 
Gfletch
Harris and others attacked Biden's comments on busing for two reasons:

1. He's the frontrunner; what the hell did he expect, as Bill pointed out
2. It wasn't about whether busing was a good or bad thing in the beginning, middle or end. It was that Biden was idiotically boasting about his ability to work with unapologetic racists

That point has been mostly lost. Now Joe is defending himself by telling black voters that he has a black friend. How lame is that? (Answer - Very.)
12:58 AM Jul 8th
 
OldBackstop
HeyBill, have you noted (or discussed) the effects of poll position in your setup? When I was commissioning political polling the experts were telling me top ballot position was worth well over 10 points. If you are listing alphabetically, you might consider some rotation or.....whatever.
9:48 PM Jul 7th
 
LesLein
Harris won the battle but may have lost the war. School busing for racial balance was a disaster politically and as policy. Schools in Dallas and Boston ended up far more segregated than they were before busing started. People living blocks from their local school won’t appreciate having their kids shipped across the city for a couple of hours a day. A smart Democrat can exploit this. If no one does it is sure to be noted by Trump.

The last Sunday show I watched was “This Week With David Brinkley.” Guests had to field tough questions live from Brinkley, Will, and Donaldson. They were tough to fudge. Viewers got different perspectives.
2:46 PM Jul 7th
 
 
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