June 15 Poll Update

June 15, 2019
 

June 15 Poll Report

            Good morning y’all.   Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has rocketed forward 37 points in the last 24 hours due to (a) a very strong performance in yesterday’s poll AND (b) the removal of an old poll in which she had drawn only 11% support.  Yesterday’s poll first:

Scores

Gillibrand

298

Gravel

70

Sanders

502

Schultz

164

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Predicted

Gillibrand

29

Gravel

7

Sanders

49

Schultz

16

Actual

Gillibrand

38

Gravel

6

Sanders

40

Schultz

16

 

            Expected to get 29% in the poll vs. Bernie Sanders’ 49%, Gillibrand polled almost even with Sanders.   In my 50-poll structure, this poll replaced one in which Gillibrand had gotten only 11% against Cory Booker (30% in that poll) and Amy Klobuchar (21%).  The 37-point move forward for Gillibrand is only one-third of one percent of the voting public, basically, but it comes after Gillibrand had already improved 80-some points in recent weeks.  A month ago today she was at 212; now she’s at 335—a 60% improvement relative to where she was. 

            Other movements of more than 5 points since yesterday:

            Senator Amy Klobuchar is up 6 points due to the removal of the April 25th poll.   Klobuchar, however, is being polled today and is current under-performing vs. Senator Kamala by a wide margin, so she could be due for a setback tomorrow.

            Senator Elizabeth Warren is down 8 points as a secondary adjustment.   It’s nothing in her case; her score is just so large that it bounces around like the far end of a diving board. 

            Senator Bernie Sanders is down 16 points as a result of his 9% under-performance in yesterday’s poll.

            Senator Cory Booker is down another 17 points as the a result of the removal of the April 25th poll.   Booker has dropped a whopping 62 points in the last three days due to a poor performance in Thursday’s poll and the removal of two old polls in which he did better.   His score has dropped to 387, which is a new low for him.   A month ago he was only at 405, not far from where he is now, but then he went up for two weeks and now he has come down for two weeks. 

            Also, former Governors Hickenlooper and Bullock have reached new low points for them, although each of them has dropped only 1 point since yesterday due to secondary adjustments.  These are the updated standings:

Rank

First

Last

Current

1

Elizabeth

Warren

1725

2

Joe

Biden

1187

3

Pete

Buttigieg

1160

4

Kamala

Harris

817

5

Amy

Klobuchar

493

6

Bernie

Sanders

486

7

Beto

O'Rourke

416

8

Cory

Booker

387

9

Stacey

Abrams

350

10

Kirsten

Gillibrand

335

11

Donald

Trump

286

12

Bill

Weld

268

13

Andrew

Yang

238

14

John

Hickenlooper

230

15

Jay

Inslee

214

16

Julian

Castro

202

17

Howard

Schultz

166

18

Tulsi

Gabbard

162

19

Michael

Bennet

134

20

Jeff

Flake

134

21

Steve

Bullock

89

22

Tim

Ryan

85

23

Eric

Swalwell

85

24

Seth

Moulton

77

25

Mike

Gravel

70

26

Marianne

Williamson

68

27

John

Delaney

62

28

Bill

de Blasio

49

29

Wayne

Messam

24

 

            The total movement in the polls since yesterday was 114 points, a middle-of-the-road number.  Senator Warren now has more support in these polls than the bottom 15 candidates combined, Inslee through Messam on the list above. 

 

 
 

COMMENTS

No comments have been posted.
 
©2019 Be Jolly, Inc. All Rights Reserved.|Web site design and development by Americaneagle.com|Terms & Conditions|Privacy Policy