June 17 Poll Report

June 17, 2019
 

June 17 Poll Report

 

            Good morning everybody.  Yesterday’s poll went pretty much as expected based on previous polling, and consequently has little impact on the current standings.   This is a summary of yesterday’s poll:

 

Scores

Abrams

349

Castro

201

Swalwell

85

Trump

282

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Predicted

Abrams

38

Castro

22

Swalwell

9

Trump

31

Actual

Abrams

39

Castro

23

Swalwell

10

Trump

28

 

            No real news there, except that the problem of Republicans not voting in my poll is getting steadily worse.   Removed from the data was the poll of April 27, which was Harris, 73; Schultz, 20; Swalwell, 5; and Messam, 2.   Removing that one also did not have major impact, since that is still reasonably close to where those candidates stand today, except that Schultz has slipped a little. 

            These are the updated standings; candidates who have moved up by 25% in the last 30 days are highlighted in green, while those who have dropped 25% are marked in gray:

Rank

First

Last

Current

1

Elizabeth

Warren

1732

2

Joe

Biden

1192

3

Pete

Buttigieg

1162

4

Kamala

Harris

842

5

Bernie

Sanders

484

6

Amy

Klobuchar

475

7

Beto

O'Rourke

414

8

Cory

Booker

383

9

Stacey

Abrams

350

10

Kirsten

Gillibrand

332

11

Donald

Trump

277

12

Bill

Weld

266

13

Andrew

Yang

240

14

John

Hickenlooper

220

15

Jay

Inslee

214

16

Julian

Castro

204

17

Tulsi

Gabbard

162

18

Howard

Schultz

159

19

Michael

Bennet

133

20

Jeff

Flake

133

21

Eric

Swalwell

95

22

Steve

Bullock

91

23

Tim

Ryan

86

24

Seth

Moulton

81

25

Mike

Gravel

70

26

Marianne

Williamson

69

27

John

Delaney

63

28

Bill

de Blasio

49

29

Wayne

Messam

24

 

            Since yesterday:

            Eric Swalwell is up 10 points, helped a little bit by yesterday’s 1% overperformance and a little bit by the removal of the April 27th poll.  He moves up from 23rd in the standings to 21st, passing Bullock and Ryan.  

            President Trump is down 5 points as a result of yesterday’s poll.

            Howard Schultz is down 7 points as a result of the removal of the April 27th poll from the data.  This drops him from 17th place to 18th, behind Tulsi Gabbard.  

            A total of 50 points has moved from one candidate to another in the last 24 hours, a very low number.   The strongest of the four candidates in today’s poll, Beto O’Rourke, will have to get 45% to sustain his standing, and appears in the early voting to be over-achieving somewhat.  Thanks for following.    

 
 

COMMENTS (1 Comment)

FrankD
Well, still nobody cares in Iowa. But the migration of politicians are starting to show. There have been sightings of the rare Indian Warrens, and the way old Bidens, even those rarely recognized have been seen by experts: like the Klobuchars, Hillebrands, Betos, … even some nobody knows there names. All are awaiting the extremely rare Warren Wilhelm, tall, but never scene without an alias ……
11:32 PM Jun 18th
 
 
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