June 24 Poll Report

June 24, 2019
 

June 24 Poll Report

 

            Good morning everybody.  The poll yesterday was very quiet, essentially meeting expectations for all four candidates:

Scores

Bullock

91

Gabbard

165

Inslee

221

Abrams

359

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Predicted

Bullock

11

Gabbard

20

Inslee

26

Abrams

43

Actual

Bullock

9

Gabbard

21

Inslee

28

Abrams

42

 

            That poll doesn’t move anyone’s score by more than four points.  The person most effected by it is Bullock, who drops from 91 to 87.   The removal of the old poll, the poll of May 4, was also low-impact.  That poll was Biden (71%), Bill Weld (13%), Howard Schultz (11%), and John Delaney (5%).   The removal of that data from the system helps Biden and Weld and hurts Schultz and Delaney, but not very much.   The notable changes in scores since yesterday are:

            Bill Weld is up by 11 points, and

            John Delaney is down by 6 points, and 

            Howard Schultz is down by 7 points. 

            All of those changes as a result of the removal of the May 4th poll from the relevant data.  Weld being up 11 points (a) is only one-tenth of one percent of the vote, and (b) just returns his score to 253, which is where it was four days ago.  He controls 2½% of the market—not an insignificant amount, but not enough to make him a serious threat to President Trump, at this time.   These are the updated standings; green indicates a candidate who is up 25% in the last 30 days, and gray indicates a candidate who is down 25% in the last 30 days:

Rank

First

Last

Current

1

Elizabeth

Warren

1873

2

Joe

Biden

1165

3

Pete

Buttigieg

1154

4

Kamala

Harris

770

5

Amy

Klobuchar

479

6

Bernie

Sanders

433

7

Cory

Booker

407

8

Beto

O'Rourke

381

9

Stacey

Abrams

356

10

Donald

Trump

337

11

Kirsten

Gillibrand

320

12

Bill

Weld

253

13

Andrew

Yang

238

14

John

Hickenlooper

234

15

Jay

Inslee

223

16

Julian

Castro

216

17

Tulsi

Gabbard

167

18

Michael

Bennet

134

19

Jeff

Flake

125

20

Howard

Schultz

125

21

Eric

Swalwell

98

22

Steve

Bullock

87

23

Seth

Moulton

84

24

Tim

Ryan

84

25

Mike

Gravel

72

26

Marianne

Williamson

63

27

John

Delaney

57

28

Bill

de Blasio

47

29

Wayne

Messam

19

 

            It seems like I say almost every day that the removal of the old poll from the data has had more impact than the addition of the new one, and I have been puzzled as to why this was true.  The standings are the combined result of the last 50 polls, each of which has the same weight as the others, so adding one and subtracting one should have a balanced effect.   The "end point" polls—the first one in the series and the last one—are equally distant from the center, so that shouldn’t seem to make any difference.

            I finally realized that that happens, usually, because there was more volatility in the standings 50 days ago than there is now.   We’re kind of in the doldrums of the campaign now.  We went through a volatile stage about two months ago when new candidates were announcing their candidacy almost every day, the public was sorting them out, and a significant number of things were happening.   People were surging; people were falling off.   Everybody was finding their level.   Everybody is kind of treading water right now, waiting for the debates.  Since there was more volatility early in the early part of the 50-day window than in the latter part, the first poll in the study tends to be further from the center than the last one, even though they are equally distant in time.   Volatility should explode upward again after the debates, and then the new polls should have more impact than the old ones, I would think.   Thanks for reading.

 
 

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