June 29 Poll Report

June 29, 2019
 

June 29 Poll Report

 

            Good morning everybody.   The proposition that the Democratic debate represents a turning point in the long road to the nomination is intuitively obvious, but if we needed confirmation we have it now.   Yesterday’s poll did not go at all as predicted by the previous polls—not for anybody.   These were the standings for the four poll candidates as of yesterday:

Scores

Harris

773

Trump

342

Abrams

364

Buttigieg

1129

 

            Which would lead to a prediction that Pete Buttigieg would win the poll with 43% of the vote.   That is not at all what happened:

Scores

Harris

773

Trump

342

Abrams

364

Buttigieg

1129

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Predicted

Harris

30

Trump

13

Abrams

14

Buttigieg

43

Actual

Harris

46

Trump

22

Abrams

5

Buttigieg

27

 

            Kamala Harris, riding off of what was perceived as a strong debate performance, drew 46% of the vote against an expected 30%.  

            A very odd thing about yesterday’s poll is that it had essentially NO secondary effects, no effect on the standing of anyone who was not polled.   I don’t know why that happened; it’s just the way the math worked out, everybody came out in the same place they were yesterday except the people who were actually polled, even though the poll was way out of line with expectations. 

            Also, the stale poll removed from the data, the voting of May 9th. . . that also was a non-event.   Removing that poll (Trump, Kasich, Bennet and Gravel) from the data, on its own, had basically zero impact.   So we can summarize our comments this morning with reference to just the four from the poll yesterday:

            Kamala Harris is up 58 points—half a percent—since yesterday.   As those of you who read these poll reports will know, Kamala has been languishing in fourth place and getting further behind the top three for the last month, but I always felt and frequently said that it didn’t mean anything in her case.  It’s early in the race; she has formidable skills, a baseline of support and an office from which to operate.  Sitting in fourth place is not actually a bad place for her; let the leaders take the heat.  If she was at 400 and dropping, that would be serious, but 800 and dropping a little. . .it’s really nothing.   There’s a substantial chance that the race for the Democratic nomination will come down to Harris against Warren.     

            Donald Trump, who overperformed by 9 points in yesterday’s poll, is also up 52 points in today’s standings. In his case, all that that means is that the Republicans, who had been disappearing from my polls entirely, are starting to come back to it for some reason.   This is the second straight poll in which Trump has outperformed expectations, which I am very glad to see.  His unrealistically low numbers in my polling did not indicate weakness on his part; it simply meant that my voters were not representative of the whole electorate.   Which they’re still not, of course, but this is less true now than it was ten days ago.  Trump’s score has jumped from 273 to 394 in the last eight days.  It probably, realistically, should be somewhere around 1,000; Twitter just leans left. 

            Stacey Abrams, who is not actually running at this time, has dropped 49 points since yesterday.  Abrams has said not too long ago that she was still considering getting into the race.  While I think it is very unlikely that she will enter the race, it is my opinion that she could sit on the sidelines perhaps as long as until November, and still make a showing in Iowa and New Hampshire.   Between now and November a lot of people will drop out of the race, and dissatisfaction with the remaining choices will begin to boil.   Someone who enters late would have the opportunity to take advantage of that.  

            An odd note is that although Abrams had a terrible poll yesterday and dropped 49 points as a result of it, she actually came off the "gray list".  In the chart below I highlight candidates who have dropped 25% in the last 30 days in gray.  Abrams was gray yesterday and had a terrible day, but exactly 30 days ago she had an even more terrible day relative to where she was then, so that whereas yesterday she was down 30-some percent in the last 30 days, now she is down only 16%. 

            And Pete Buttigieg has also dropped by 49 points.   Buttigieg, who has had a kind of magic carpet ride for the last two months, is dealing with a serious challenge for the first time.  

            My guess is that Buttigieg’s support cannot evaporate too rapidly, because there is a hunger in the LGBT community for someone to carry the banner for them.   I think that if he handles the South Bend police shooting crisis reasonably well, he will hang in the race as one of the top three to five Democrats probably until the actual voting starts.  

            These are the updated standings:

Rank

First

Last

Current

1

Elizabeth

Warren

1914

2

Joe

Biden

1097

3

Pete

Buttigieg

1070

4

Kamala

Harris

831

5

Amy

Klobuchar

492

6

Bernie

Sanders

432

7

Cory

Booker

429

8

Donald

Trump

394

9

Beto

O'Rourke

371

10

Kirsten

Gillibrand

322

11

Stacey

Abrams

315

12

Andrew

Yang

298

13

John

Hickenlooper

240

14

Jay

Inslee

230

15

Julian

Castro

224

16

Bill

Weld

204

17

Tulsi

Gabbard

175

18

Michael

Bennet

131

19

Jeff

Flake

115

20

Howard

Schultz

106

21

Eric

Swalwell

93

22

Steve

Bullock

89

23

Tim

Ryan

88

24

Seth

Moulton

84

25

Mike

Gravel

70

26

Marianne

Williamson

63

27

John

Delaney

60

28

Bill

de Blasio

46

 

            Thanks for reading. 

 

 
 

COMMENTS (10 Comments, most recent shown first)

MarisFan61
OK, but.....

Why would we think Bill wouldn't like those reasons?
You mean, the idea that those are more associated with Democrats?

I mean, they are, but......so????
3:58 AM Jul 4th
 
robneyer
Matt, I wasn't thinking specifically about critical thinking skills; but yes, that's essentially right. I was thinking about science, verifiable facts, vote suppression, good government, those sorts of things. But yes, they're all tied to critical thinking.
2:44 PM Jul 1st
 
matt_okeefe
I’d wager Rob’s unstated point has something to do with critical thinking skills & Bill often reacts strongly to anything that smacks of elitism.
12:16 PM Jun 30th
 
MarisFan61
KL: Good question. It brought me to a stop too. I came up with sort of am answer that sort of worked for me, then sort of shrugged it off. :-)
11:22 AM Jun 30th
 
TJNawrocki
There's certainly something POTUS could do to drop his support under 40, and that's have the economy fall apart on him. The economy has been strong throughout his entire administration, but if that ever changes, if there's a recession, his support will very likely drop along with it. Even Trump supporters vote their pocketbooks.
10:52 AM Jun 30th
 
robneyer
TJ, I don't know. Maybe?

But I suspect that if you polled now, Generic Dem vs. Potus, result would be within a point or two of 52-43. Same as the Pew poll regarding party leanings. There's essentially nothing Potus could do that would drop him below 40. And I don't expect he'll ever get close to 40 in Bill's poll (assuming that Bill's poll even allows for an equivalence like this; I don't understand the methodology well enough to know).
10:19 AM Jun 30th
 
TJNawrocki
It's an interesting question. Baseball fans as a whole tend to skew older, whiter and more male than the general population, as does Trump's base of support. So my first assumption would be that Trump voters are pretty well represented here.

Bill has said that his system tends to pick up on things that traditional polling misses, like the fact that Warren was a in much stronger position than other polls were registering. Is it possible that Trump's position is just weaker than most other pollsters assume?
9:06 AM Jun 30th
 
klamb819
Why would Bill not like to hear that his followers don't typically align with the party that considers the scientific method a biased and corrupting heresy?

4:57 AM Jun 30th
 
robneyer
p.s. here's that poll:
https://www.pewinternet.org/2019/04/24/sizing-up-twitter-users/
2:00 AM Jun 30th
 
robneyer
Bill, maybe I'm getting the math wrong; actually, there's an excellent chance I'm getting it wrong.

But I suspect that your explanation for POTUS's poor showing here is less a function of Twitter, per se, than your actual followers.

Earlier this year a poll reported that (yes!) Twitter is more liberal than the general public. General public leans Democratic, 52-43; Twitter leans Democrat 60-35 (mostly, I'm guessing, because Twitter leans younger).

But 60-35 wouldn't predict POTUS's numbers here, would it?

I think a better answer is that your followers lean Democratic even more than Twitter generally. I can think of a few reasons why that might be the case, but I suspect you would not like those reasons. So I will keep them to myself. That said, I would be interested in seeing you grapple with the possibility, instead of just hoping for more POTUSers in your Twitter feed (which, again, I suspect is unlikely to happen). -r
2:00 AM Jun 30th
 
 
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