2017-39
Lady Luck and the 20-Game Winner
Most pitchers who win 20 games benefit from at least a little bit of good fortune in reaching that number.
Since 1950 there have been 353 pitchers who won 20 games. Of those 353, in my est bestimates, 123 won 20 or more games purely on merit, but 230 were pitchers who "should" have won 19 or less, but benefitted from some good fortune. 65% of twenty-game winners are luck-assisted. On the other side, 77 pitchers since 1950 should have won 20 or more games, but fell short of that standard due to bad luck.
It’s not pure luck that makes 20 game winners; it is mostly skill mixed with a little bit of good luck. Of the 240 who won 20 games but should have had 19 wins or less:
38 should have been 19-game winners,
48 should have been 18-game winners,
57 should have been 17-game winners,
38 should have been 16-game winners,
25 should have been 15-game winners,
17 should have been 14-game winners,
6 should have been 13-game winners, and
One should have been a 12-game winner.
I pointed out in a previous article that Red Ruffing, who won 20 games every year from 1936 to 1939, should have won 19 every year. Adam Wainwright is like that. He has won 20 games twice. He was a little bit lucky, but not all that lucky; he should have been 19-8 both years. Randy Johnson in 1997 was 20-4; he was lucky. He should have been 19-5. OK, he was a little bit lucky; he wasn’t really lucky. The really lucky 20-game winners were:
|
|
|
|
|
|
Deserved
|
First
|
Last
|
Team
|
Year
|
Won
|
Lost
|
Wins
|
Losses
|
Johnny
|
Sain
|
Boston Braves
|
1950
|
20
|
13
|
14
|
18
|
Billy
|
Hoeft
|
Detroit Tigers
|
1956
|
20
|
14
|
14
|
14
|
Denny
|
McLain
|
Detroit Tigers
|
1966
|
20
|
14
|
14
|
16
|
Jim
|
Merritt
|
Cincinnati Reds
|
1970
|
20
|
12
|
14
|
12
|
Dave
|
McNally
|
Baltimore Orioles
|
1971
|
21
|
5
|
14
|
11
|
Stan
|
Bahnsen
|
Chicago White Sox
|
1972
|
21
|
16
|
14
|
15
|
Vida
|
Blue
|
Oakland A's
|
1973
|
20
|
9
|
14
|
16
|
Joe
|
Niekro
|
Houston Astros
|
1980
|
20
|
12
|
14
|
15
|
Bob
|
Welch
|
Oakland A's
|
1990
|
27
|
6
|
14
|
13
|
Scott
|
Erickson
|
Minnesota Twins
|
1991
|
20
|
8
|
14
|
9
|
Bill
|
Gullickson
|
Detroit Tigers
|
1991
|
20
|
9
|
14
|
12
|
Jack
|
Morris
|
Toronto Blue Jays
|
1992
|
21
|
6
|
14
|
13
|
John
|
Burkett
|
San Francisco Giants
|
1993
|
22
|
7
|
14
|
12
|
Rick
|
Helling
|
Texas Rangers
|
1998
|
20
|
7
|
14
|
10
|
Tim
|
Hudson
|
Oakland A's
|
2000
|
20
|
6
|
14
|
10
|
Jamie
|
Moyer
|
Seattle Mariners
|
2001
|
20
|
6
|
14
|
10
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bob
|
Grim
|
New York Yankees
|
1954
|
20
|
6
|
13
|
10
|
Ray
|
Sadecki
|
St. Louis Cardinals
|
1964
|
20
|
11
|
13
|
12
|
Catfish
|
Hunter
|
Oakland A's
|
1973
|
21
|
5
|
13
|
16
|
John
|
Smiley
|
Pittsburgh Pirates
|
1991
|
20
|
8
|
13
|
10
|
Andy
|
Pettitte
|
New York Yankees
|
2003
|
21
|
8
|
13
|
11
|
Russ
|
Ortiz
|
Atlanta Braves
|
2003
|
21
|
7
|
13
|
12
|
Jered
|
Weaver
|
LAA Angels
|
2012
|
20
|
5
|
13
|
9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bob
|
Forsch
|
St. Louis Cardinals
|
1977
|
20
|
7
|
12
|
13
|
How did those pitchers do in the following seasons? This chart adds their won-lost records in the next seasons:
|
|
|
|
|
|
Deserved
|
Next Season
|
First
|
Last
|
Team
|
Year
|
Won
|
Lost
|
Wins
|
Losses
|
Won
|
Lost
|
Johnny
|
Sain
|
Boston Braves
|
1950
|
20
|
13
|
14
|
18
|
7
|
14
|
Billy
|
Hoeft
|
Detroit Tigers
|
1956
|
20
|
14
|
14
|
14
|
9
|
11
|
Denny
|
McLain
|
Detroit Tigers
|
1966
|
20
|
14
|
14
|
16
|
17
|
16
|
Jim
|
Merritt
|
Cincinnati Reds
|
1970
|
20
|
12
|
14
|
12
|
1
|
11
|
Dave
|
McNally
|
Baltimore Orioles
|
1971
|
21
|
5
|
14
|
11
|
13
|
17
|
Stan
|
Bahnsen
|
Chicago White Sox
|
1972
|
21
|
16
|
14
|
15
|
18
|
21
|
Vida
|
Blue
|
Oakland A's
|
1973
|
20
|
9
|
14
|
16
|
17
|
15
|
Joe
|
Niekro
|
Houston Astros
|
1980
|
20
|
12
|
14
|
15
|
9
|
9
|
Bob
|
Welch
|
Oakland A's
|
1990
|
27
|
6
|
14
|
13
|
12
|
13
|
Scott
|
Erickson
|
Minnesota Twins
|
1991
|
20
|
8
|
14
|
9
|
13
|
12
|
Bill
|
Gullickson
|
Detroit Tigers
|
1991
|
20
|
9
|
14
|
12
|
14
|
13
|
Jack
|
Morris
|
Toronto Blue Jays
|
1992
|
21
|
6
|
14
|
13
|
7
|
12
|
John
|
Burkett
|
San Francisco Giants
|
1993
|
22
|
7
|
14
|
12
|
6
|
8
|
Rick
|
Helling
|
Texas Rangers
|
1998
|
20
|
7
|
14
|
10
|
13
|
11
|
Tim
|
Hudson
|
Oakland A's
|
2000
|
20
|
6
|
14
|
10
|
18
|
9
|
Jamie
|
Moyer
|
Seattle Mariners
|
2001
|
20
|
6
|
14
|
10
|
13
|
8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bob
|
Grim
|
New York Yankees
|
1954
|
20
|
6
|
13
|
10
|
7
|
5
|
Ray
|
Sadecki
|
St. Louis Cardinals
|
1964
|
20
|
11
|
13
|
12
|
6
|
15
|
Catfish
|
Hunter
|
Oakland A's
|
1973
|
21
|
5
|
13
|
16
|
25
|
12
|
John
|
Smiley
|
Pittsburgh Pirates
|
1991
|
20
|
8
|
13
|
10
|
16
|
9
|
Andy
|
Pettitte
|
New York Yankees
|
2003
|
21
|
8
|
13
|
11
|
6
|
4
|
Russ
|
Ortiz
|
Atlanta Braves
|
2003
|
21
|
7
|
13
|
12
|
15
|
9
|
Jered
|
Weaver
|
LAA Angels
|
2012
|
20
|
5
|
13
|
9
|
11
|
8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bob
|
Forsch
|
St. Louis Cardinals
|
1977
|
20
|
7
|
12
|
13
|
11
|
17
|
Average
|
|
|
21
|
9
|
14
|
13
|
12
|
12
|
Winning Percentage
|
|
|
.705
|
.523
|
.504
|
Catfish Hunter, after an atypical season in 1973, had deserved won-lost records of 23-13 and 23-14 the next two seasons, and exactly matched his deserved record in 1975 (23-14). But many of these pitchers had crash-and-burn seasons the next year. It is what I refer to as the Reality Bites syndrome.
When we get lucky, we inevitably start to believe that we weren’t lucky; we are just really good. All of us do. When a movie director makes a hit movie, he doesn’t think, "I was sure lucky to get that script, and to get that actor to work with me." He thinks he’s a genius, and he can produce great movie after great movie from now on. It’s inevitable. If you invest in a few stocks that do well, you think you can pick winners in the stock market.
When a pitcher who has been lucky one year starts to contend with ordinary luck or some tough luck the next year, he thinks he’s lost it. "What am I doing wrong now?" he asks. "I was so good last year; what have I lost?"
Based on that assumption, he starts to make adjustments, trying to reclaim a magic which in reality was external to him, but which he believes was a part of him. Sometimes those adjustments backfire on him, and the next thing you know, he’s completely messed up.
There are also 77 pitchers since 1950 who deserved to win 20 games, but did not. These are those 77 pitchers. I will bold-face those pitchers who got cheated out of a 20-win season, and never did have one:
|
|
|
|
|
Deserved
|
First
|
Last
|
Year
|
W
|
L
|
Wins
|
Losses
|
Joaquin
|
Andujar
|
1982
|
15
|
10
|
20
|
10
|
Kevin
|
Appier
|
1993
|
18
|
8
|
20
|
7
|
Vida
|
Blue
|
1976
|
18
|
13
|
22
|
12
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bert
|
Blyleven
|
1971
|
16
|
15
|
20
|
12
|
Bert
|
Blyleven
|
1972
|
17
|
17
|
20
|
13
|
Bert
|
Blyleven
|
1974
|
17
|
17
|
20
|
12
|
Bert
|
Blyleven
|
1975
|
15
|
10
|
20
|
11
|
Bert
|
Blyleven
|
1976
|
13
|
16
|
20
|
14
|
Bert
|
Blyleven
|
1985
|
17
|
16
|
20
|
13
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kevin
|
Brown
|
1996
|
17
|
11
|
20
|
7
|
Kevin
|
Brown
|
1998
|
18
|
7
|
20
|
9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jim
|
Bunning
|
1965
|
19
|
9
|
20
|
13
|
Jim
|
Bunning
|
1966
|
19
|
14
|
24
|
12
|
Jim
|
Bunning
|
1967
|
17
|
15
|
22
|
12
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dean
|
Chance
|
1968
|
16
|
16
|
20
|
13
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Roger
|
Clemens
|
1988
|
18
|
12
|
22
|
9
|
Roger
|
Clemens
|
1991
|
18
|
10
|
22
|
9
|
Roger
|
Clemens
|
1992
|
18
|
11
|
20
|
8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Don
|
Drysdale
|
1964
|
18
|
16
|
23
|
13
|
Don
|
Drysdale
|
1960
|
15
|
14
|
21
|
10
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bob
|
Friend
|
1960
|
18
|
12
|
20
|
12
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bob
|
Gibson
|
1964
|
19
|
12
|
21
|
12
|
Bob
|
Gibson
|
1972
|
19
|
11
|
21
|
10
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zack
|
Greinke
|
2009
|
16
|
8
|
21
|
6
|
Zack
|
Greinke
|
2015
|
19
|
3
|
21
|
6
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Roy
|
Halladay
|
2011
|
19
|
6
|
20
|
8
|
Ken
|
Holtzman
|
1970
|
17
|
11
|
21
|
12
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Randy
|
Johnson
|
1999
|
17
|
9
|
23
|
8
|
Randy
|
Johnson
|
2000
|
19
|
7
|
22
|
8
|
Randy
|
Johnson
|
2004
|
16
|
14
|
21
|
8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Clayton
|
Kershaw
|
2013
|
16
|
9
|
20
|
7
|
Clayton
|
Kershaw
|
2015
|
16
|
7
|
20
|
7
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jimmy
|
Key
|
1987
|
17
|
8
|
20
|
10
|
Bill
|
Lee
|
1973
|
17
|
11
|
20
|
12
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tim
|
Lincecum
|
2008
|
18
|
5
|
20
|
7
|
Tim
|
Lincecum
|
2009
|
15
|
7
|
20
|
7
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Greg
|
Maddux
|
1995
|
19
|
2
|
21
|
3
|
Greg
|
Maddux
|
1996
|
15
|
11
|
20
|
8
|
Greg
|
Maddux
|
1997
|
19
|
4
|
21
|
6
|
Greg
|
Maddux
|
1998
|
18
|
9
|
21
|
8
|
Greg
|
Maddux
|
2000
|
19
|
9
|
20
|
9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Deserved
|
First
|
Last
|
Year
|
W
|
L
|
Wins
|
Losses
|
Pedro
|
Martinez
|
1997
|
17
|
8
|
22
|
6
|
Pedro
|
Martinez
|
2000
|
18
|
6
|
22
|
3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jon
|
Matlack
|
1974
|
13
|
15
|
20
|
10
|
Sam
|
McDowell
|
1965
|
17
|
11
|
21
|
10
|
Andy
|
Messersmith
|
1975
|
19
|
14
|
23
|
14
|
Joe
|
Niekro
|
1982
|
17
|
12
|
20
|
11
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Phil
|
Niekro
|
1977
|
16
|
20
|
21
|
17
|
Phil
|
Niekro
|
1978
|
19
|
18
|
24
|
14
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gaylord
|
Perry
|
1967
|
15
|
17
|
20
|
14
|
Gaylord
|
Perry
|
1969
|
19
|
14
|
22
|
15
|
Gaylord
|
Perry
|
1973
|
19
|
19
|
21
|
18
|
Gaylord
|
Perry
|
1975
|
18
|
17
|
20
|
15
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Billy
|
Pierce
|
1953
|
18
|
12
|
20
|
11
|
J.R.
|
Richard
|
1979
|
18
|
13
|
21
|
13
|
Jose
|
Rijo
|
1993
|
14
|
9
|
21
|
9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Steve
|
Rogers
|
1977
|
17
|
16
|
20
|
14
|
Steve
|
Rogers
|
1982
|
19
|
8
|
22
|
10
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nolan
|
Ryan
|
1977
|
19
|
16
|
21
|
13
|
CC
|
Sabathia
|
2008
|
17
|
10
|
21
|
9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Johan
|
Santana
|
2005
|
16
|
7
|
20
|
8
|
Johan
|
Santana
|
2006
|
19
|
6
|
20
|
8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Curt
|
Schilling
|
1998
|
15
|
14
|
21
|
9
|
Mike
|
Scott
|
1986
|
18
|
10
|
23
|
8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tom
|
Seaver
|
1968
|
16
|
12
|
20
|
11
|
Tom
|
Seaver
|
1970
|
18
|
12
|
22
|
11
|
Tom
|
Seaver
|
1973
|
19
|
10
|
23
|
10
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Chris
|
Short
|
1965
|
18
|
11
|
20
|
14
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mario
|
Soto
|
1983
|
17
|
13
|
20
|
12
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dave
|
Stieb
|
1982
|
17
|
14
|
21
|
12
|
Dave
|
Stieb
|
1983
|
17
|
12
|
21
|
11
|
Dave
|
Stieb
|
1984
|
16
|
8
|
20
|
10
|
Dave
|
Stieb
|
1985
|
14
|
13
|
20
|
11
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Don
|
Sutton
|
1972
|
19
|
9
|
21
|
10
|
Frank
|
Tanana
|
1976
|
19
|
10
|
20
|
13
|
Bob
|
Veale
|
1964
|
18
|
12
|
20
|
12
|
Mike
|
Witt
|
1986
|
18
|
10
|
20
|
11
|
There have been twenty pitchers since 1950 who have won 25 games or more—but there have been only 14 pitchers since 1950 who have won 25 games based on merit, without luck. Those 14 are as follows:
|
|
|
|
|
Deserved
|
First
|
Last
|
Year
|
W
|
L
|
Wins
|
Losses
|
Steve
|
Carlton
|
1972
|
27
|
10
|
28
|
11
|
Gaylord
|
Perry
|
1972
|
24
|
16
|
27
|
12
|
Sandy
|
Koufax
|
1966
|
27
|
9
|
27
|
10
|
Bob
|
Gibson
|
1968
|
22
|
9
|
26
|
8
|
Robin
|
Roberts
|
1953
|
23
|
16
|
26
|
13
|
Vida
|
Blue
|
1971
|
24
|
8
|
26
|
10
|
Sandy
|
Koufax
|
1965
|
26
|
8
|
26
|
13
|
Sandy
|
Koufax
|
1963
|
25
|
5
|
25
|
10
|
Dwight
|
Gooden
|
1985
|
24
|
4
|
25
|
6
|
Denny
|
McLain
|
1968
|
31
|
6
|
25
|
13
|
Wilbur
|
Wood
|
1972
|
24
|
17
|
25
|
18
|
Bert
|
Blyleven
|
1973
|
20
|
17
|
25
|
12
|
Bob
|
Gibson
|
1969
|
20
|
13
|
25
|
11
|
Steve
|
Carlton
|
1980
|
24
|
9
|
25
|
10
|
All fourteen pitchers who deserved to win 25 or more games did in fact win at least 20, and they averaged between 24 and 25 wins.
And finally (for today) there have been 19 pitchers since 1950 who either did win 20 games or should have won 20 games, and who had a deserved winning percentage of .750 or higher:
|
|
|
|
|
Deserved
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Winning
|
First
|
Last
|
Year
|
W
|
L
|
Wins
|
Losses
|
Percentage
|
Pedro
|
Martinez
|
2000
|
18
|
6
|
22
|
3
|
.882
|
Greg
|
Maddux
|
1995
|
19
|
2
|
21
|
3
|
.856
|
Pedro
|
Martinez
|
1999
|
23
|
4
|
21
|
4
|
.856
|
Roger
|
Clemens
|
1997
|
21
|
7
|
24
|
6
|
.809
|
Dwight
|
Gooden
|
1985
|
24
|
4
|
25
|
6
|
.795
|
Zack
|
Greinke
|
2009
|
16
|
8
|
21
|
6
|
.795
|
Randy
|
Johnson
|
2001
|
21
|
6
|
23
|
6
|
.792
|
Zack
|
Greinke
|
2015
|
19
|
3
|
21
|
6
|
.788
|
Clayton
|
Kershaw
|
2014
|
21
|
3
|
18
|
5
|
.786
|
Pedro
|
Martinez
|
1997
|
17
|
8
|
22
|
6
|
.783
|
Jake
|
Arrieta
|
2015
|
22
|
6
|
21
|
6
|
.782
|
Randy
|
Johnson
|
1997
|
20
|
4
|
19
|
5
|
.781
|
Greg
|
Maddux
|
1997
|
19
|
4
|
21
|
6
|
.778
|
Roger
|
Clemens
|
1990
|
21
|
6
|
20
|
6
|
.772
|
Johan
|
Santana
|
2004
|
20
|
6
|
20
|
6
|
.763
|
Bob
|
Gibson
|
1968
|
22
|
9
|
26
|
8
|
.762
|
Ron
|
Guidry
|
1978
|
25
|
3
|
24
|
7
|
.760
|
Randy
|
Johnson
|
2002
|
24
|
5
|
23
|
7
|
.759
|
Pedro
|
Martinez
|
2002
|
20
|
4
|
18
|
6
|
.757
|
16 of these 19 pitchers did in fact have winning percentages over .750. Also Kevin Appier, 1993, had a deserved winning percentage of .749. Most of those pitchers (16 of the 19) have been from the post-1990 period. I think that’s due to the five-man (vs. four-man) rotation. When a pitcher is worked hard, that pushes him back toward the center. When he has more space, he is more likely to perform at a dominant level, perhaps.