2017-20
Luke Appling and Kirby
Luke Appling in his Hall of Fame career had 10,243 plate appearances, and drove in 1,116 runs. As you can easily see even if you are mad at bath, this is a little bit more than one RBI for each 10 plate appearances. In 1936 he had 617 plate appearances. He could, then, have been expected to drive in 67 runs, prorating his career RBI to his 1936 plate appearances.
In fact, though, he did not drive in 67 runs; he drove in 128 runs. He drove in 61 runs more than we would have expected him to drive in, based on his career totals. This is a large number. It is, in fact, the largest number in the history of baseball. .. that is, RBI minus expected RBI, based on career RBI rate. It’s the champion fluke season for RBI. His career high for RBI, other than that one season, was 85.
Second on the list is a season that some of you will remember, if you are old like me. Tommy Davis in 1962 drove in 153 runs in 1962. He never drove in 100 in any other season, either. His career high, other than the year that he hit .376 with runners in scoring position and batted behind Maury Wills stealing 104 bases, was 89.
Hack Wilson is next; he was a regular RBI man, although the 1930 season is still a little flukish. Here’s the top 10 list, the top 10 fluke RBI years of all time:
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
RBI
|
RBIX
|
RBI
|
Luke
|
Appling
|
1936
|
128
|
67
|
60.8
|
Tommy
|
Davis
|
1962
|
153
|
97
|
56.4
|
Hack
|
Wilson
|
1930
|
191
|
136
|
55.4
|
Joe
|
Morgan
|
1976
|
111
|
60
|
51.1
|
Carson
|
Bigbee
|
1922
|
99
|
48
|
51.0
|
Jimmy
|
Sheckard
|
1901
|
104
|
54
|
49.9
|
Chuck
|
Klein
|
1930
|
170
|
120
|
49.5
|
Walt
|
Dropo
|
1950
|
144
|
95
|
49.2
|
Edgar
|
Martinez
|
2000
|
145
|
97
|
48.3
|
Roy
|
Johnson
|
1934
|
119
|
71
|
47.8
|
There’s another way to look at expected RBI, which is to project RBI based on (TB/4 + HR), which I call the RBI fill-in formula. By that formula, Appling "should" have driven in 73 runs in 1936, just six above his normal season. He beat THAT number by almost as much as the other number. That’s unusual, but everybody on the chart above, and the next 18 hitters who would be on the chart above, all exceeded their expected RBI based on the RBI fill-in formula.
On the other end of that list is Kirby Puckett, 1984. Kirby Puckett in his Hall of Fame career drove in 1,085 runs—about the same number as Appling—but in far fewer career plate appearances, 7,831. As a rookie in 1984 Puckett had 583 plate appearances, and thus could have been expected to drive in 81 runs. He actually drove in only 31 runs. He missed by 50. It’s the largest shortfall in baseball history. These are the bottom 10:
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
RBI
|
RBIX
|
RBI
|
Kirby
|
Puckett
|
1984
|
31
|
81
|
-49.8
|
Barry
|
Bonds
|
1989
|
58
|
108
|
-49.5
|
Rafael
|
Palmeiro
|
1988
|
53
|
96
|
-42.8
|
Willie
|
Davis
|
1968
|
31
|
74
|
-42.5
|
Edgar
|
Martinez
|
1991
|
52
|
93
|
-41.4
|
Honus
|
Wagner
|
1914
|
50
|
91
|
-40.9
|
Jackie
|
Robinson
|
1947
|
48
|
89
|
-40.7
|
Barry
|
Bonds
|
1988
|
58
|
97
|
-39.2
|
Jimmy
|
Dykes
|
1920
|
35
|
73
|
-38.0
|
Barry
|
Bonds
|
1987
|
59
|
97
|
-37.7
|
There are quite a few rookies on that list, rookies and young players, one old player (Honus). That’s not unexpected, but if you move on down the list just a little you get a different mix. Johnny Bench drove in only 61 runs in 1971, 36 RBI short of his norm. He wasn’t either old or a rookie; he just had a bad year. Tim Salmon in 2001 drove in only 49 runs, 35 runs short of his norm. He wasn’t either old or a rookie; he just had a bad year.
Edgar Martinez is on both the "good year" list and the "bad year" list. That happens quite a bit. Since every player is at +/- 0 for his career, a good year has to be offset by a bad year, or by a collection of bad years.
In terms of Runs Scored, the #1 fluke year for Runs Scored was by Nap Lajoie in 1901, +61 runs. Tommy Davis and Chuck Klein, 1930, are on both lists, the RBI list and the Runs Scored list:
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
R
|
X R
|
R
|
Nap
|
Lajoie
|
1901
|
145
|
84
|
61.3
|
Al
|
Simmons
|
1930
|
152
|
97
|
55.2
|
Tommy
|
Davis
|
1962
|
120
|
75
|
45.5
|
Roger
|
Peckinpaugh
|
1921
|
128
|
84
|
44.5
|
Babe
|
Herman
|
1930
|
143
|
99
|
44.0
|
Woody
|
English
|
1930
|
152
|
111
|
41.4
|
Jay
|
Bell
|
1999
|
132
|
91
|
41.4
|
Billy
|
Williams
|
1970
|
137
|
96
|
41.3
|
Zoilo
|
Versalles
|
1965
|
126
|
85
|
41.2
|
Chuck
|
Klein
|
1930
|
158
|
117
|
40.8
|
Zoilo Versalles won an MVP Award in 1965, scoring 41 runs more than he normally would have. Lajoie barely qualified for the list from another standpoint. I did not consider a player eligible for the list if
1) He was still active in 2016, since this would queer the season-to-career comparison,
2) He came up before 1895, or
3) His career was centered in the 19th century, or
4) The relevant season was in the 19th century.
If we did this and DIDN’T exclude 19th century seasons, almost all of the lists would be entirely dominated by 19th century players. Nineteenth century baseball isn’t REALLY major league baseball. They changed the rules regularly, changed scoring rules, changed equipment, changed parks. It caused standards to jump around like UIJD (undocumented immigrant jumping beans), which would cause phony "accomplishments" from the 19th century to completely dominate these lists. The worst years for Runs Scored are often by old guys who didn’t realize until the season started that they couldn’t play anymore:
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
R
|
X R
|
R
|
Derek
|
Jeter
|
2014
|
47
|
97
|
-49.7
|
Hank
|
Aaron
|
1975
|
45
|
85
|
-39.7
|
Harry
|
Rice
|
1933
|
44
|
83
|
-38.9
|
Craig
|
Biggio
|
1990
|
53
|
92
|
-38.6
|
Ron
|
Santo
|
1962
|
44
|
82
|
-38.2
|
Chick
|
Stahl
|
1906
|
63
|
100
|
-37.2
|
Mickey
|
Mantle
|
1968
|
57
|
93
|
-35.6
|
Nap
|
Lajoie
|
1915
|
40
|
75
|
-34.8
|
Ginger
|
Beaumont
|
1909
|
35
|
69
|
-34.3
|
Earl
|
Sheely
|
1931
|
30
|
64
|
-33.7
|
The story which was told at the time about Santo’s 1962 off season was that Santo had gotten into weight training in the winter of 1961-62. He hit .284 with 23 homers in 1961, but a friend had convinced him that if he lifted and got stronger, he could hit 40 homers. He got bigger, but he didn’t get stronger; he got slower. That was the story that was told at the time. At the time, we didn’t know that Santo was a diabetic. I don’t think Santo knew it at the time. In retrospect, you wonder if it wasn’t the diabetes that was slowing him down, rather than the weight.
You’ll note that there are often more Hall of Famers on the "bad year" list than on the "good year" list, which makes sense I guess. If you have a high career norm, that makes a year when you DON’T score runs stand out from your career.
Let’s do. . .let’s do doubles.
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
2B
|
X 2B
|
2B
|
Earl
|
Webb
|
1931
|
67
|
42
|
25.4
|
George H.
|
Burns
|
1926
|
64
|
40
|
23.7
|
Chuck
|
Knoblauch
|
1994
|
45
|
22
|
23.2
|
Paul
|
Waner
|
1932
|
62
|
39
|
22.9
|
Gee
|
Walker
|
1936
|
55
|
33
|
22.4
|
Enos
|
Slaughter
|
1939
|
52
|
30
|
21.8
|
Hank
|
Greenberg
|
1934
|
63
|
41
|
21.5
|
Stan
|
Spence
|
1946
|
50
|
29
|
21.3
|
Bobby
|
Byrne
|
1910
|
43
|
23
|
20.0
|
Floyd
|
Robinson
|
1962
|
45
|
25
|
19.6
|
Frank
|
Robinson
|
1962
|
51
|
32
|
19.5
|
Earl Webb, the record-holder for doubles in a season, is also the record-holder for "most doubles more than he would normally hit", a phenomenon which we will see two more times, at least; the record-holders for triples and homers are also the guys who hit the largest number more than they would regularly hit. I stretched the list to 11 there so I would get both F Robinson’s 1962 on there, Floyd and Frank. Love that Floyd Robinson season. The leader for doubles underachieving is the careers doubles record holder, Tristram:
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
2B
|
X 2B
|
2B
|
Tris
|
Speaker
|
1910
|
20
|
40
|
-20.2
|
Hank
|
Greenberg
|
1938
|
23
|
42
|
-19.3
|
Kirby
|
Puckett
|
1984
|
12
|
31
|
-18.8
|
Hank
|
Greenberg
|
1947
|
13
|
32
|
-18.7
|
Honus
|
Wagner
|
1914
|
15
|
34
|
-18.6
|
Tris
|
Speaker
|
1915
|
25
|
43
|
-18.1
|
Rogers
|
Hornsby
|
1919
|
15
|
33
|
-17.9
|
Harry
|
Hooper
|
1910
|
9
|
26
|
-17.1
|
Sean
|
Casey
|
2003
|
19
|
36
|
-16.9
|
Luis
|
Gonzalez
|
2002
|
19
|
36
|
-16.8
|
Tris is a double-uniquer, by the way; he’s the only "Tris" in major league history, and also the only "Speaker". Hadn’t realized that until now. Not counting Frank House, who was, of course, the Speaker of the House. Owen (Chief) Wilson is the Earl Webb of triples:
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
3B
|
X 3B
|
3B
|
Chief
|
Wilson
|
1912
|
36
|
15
|
21.5
|
Larry
|
Doyle
|
1911
|
25
|
10
|
14.6
|
Bill
|
Bradley
|
1903
|
22
|
8
|
13.8
|
Dale
|
Mitchell
|
1949
|
23
|
10
|
13.4
|
Ryne
|
Sandberg
|
1984
|
19
|
6
|
13.3
|
Willie
|
Mays
|
1957
|
20
|
7
|
12.5
|
Kiki
|
Cuyler
|
1925
|
26
|
14
|
12.4
|
Adam
|
Comorosky
|
1930
|
23
|
11
|
11.8
|
George
|
Brett
|
1979
|
20
|
8
|
11.7
|
Billy
|
Herman
|
1939
|
18
|
7
|
11.2
|
While the leader for NOT hitting his triples in a season is. . . .wait a minute, who do you think? Just wanted to pause there to point out to you that you’re actually learning something here, since none of you would know the answer to this question before I give it to you. It’s Edd Rousch in 1927:
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
3B
|
X 3B
|
3B
|
Edd
|
Roush
|
1927
|
4
|
14
|
-9.7
|
Home Run
|
Baker
|
1919
|
1
|
10
|
-8.6
|
Red
|
Murray
|
1913
|
3
|
12
|
-8.6
|
Jack
|
Fournier
|
1924
|
4
|
13
|
-8.5
|
Charlie
|
Gehringer
|
1937
|
1
|
9
|
-8.4
|
Sam
|
Crawford
|
1905
|
10
|
18
|
-8.4
|
Jimmy
|
Collins
|
1907
|
1
|
9
|
-8.2
|
Hobe
|
Ferris
|
1907
|
2
|
10
|
-8.2
|
Cy
|
Seymour
|
1908
|
2
|
10
|
-8.1
|
Hughie
|
Critz
|
1934
|
1
|
9
|
-8.1
|
Four interesting things there:
1) Sam Crawford in 1905 hit 10 triples—but makes the list of players who DIDN’T hit as many triples as they usually do.
2) NONE of the players who missed their expected triples in a season by the widest margins hit zero triples, which I would have expected, and
3) The "expectations" for the top guys and the expectations for the bottom guys are about the same. It’s just that one group did and one group didn’t.
4) One thing I like about these lists is that they are mostly distributed across time, with seasons from the dead ball era mixed in with seasons from the 1990s. This one isn’t, though. We don’t hit many triples anymore, so players are not EXPECTED to hit triples.
Home runs. . .this isn’t a surprise. Fluke home run seasons are something people talk about a lot, so you could probably guess most of those. I’ll do that list later; let’s do strikeouts and walks. The leader for striking out way more in one season than he normally did is. . .hold on.
Pausing again to point out to you that you don’t know the answer to this until I tell you. It’s Willie Mays, 1971:
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
SO
|
X SO
|
SO
|
Willie
|
Mays
|
1971
|
123
|
66
|
57.4
|
Mike
|
Schmidt
|
1975
|
180
|
126
|
53.9
|
Ron
|
Gant
|
1997
|
162
|
108
|
53.7
|
Mike
|
Schmidt
|
1973
|
136
|
83
|
53.1
|
Carney
|
Lansford
|
1979
|
115
|
65
|
50.2
|
Larry
|
Hisle
|
1970
|
139
|
92
|
46.9
|
Mark
|
Belanger
|
1968
|
114
|
67
|
46.5
|
Julio
|
Franco
|
1997
|
116
|
70
|
46.4
|
Larry
|
Hisle
|
1969
|
152
|
106
|
46.3
|
Raul
|
Ibanez
|
2013
|
128
|
82
|
45.7
|
Interesting about Schmidt being on the list, 2 and 4. We all remember that he struck out a lot, but this points out that that’s really only early in his career. By the time he was MVP his strikeout totals are not so high.
Mays had a high-strikeout season his last year as a regular, but that type of year is not prominent on the list. The only other one of those is Ibanez. Larry Hisle is on the list his FIRST two years as regular; Schmidt, Lansford and Belanger were early in their careers. Mostly this list is younger guys. The list of guys who had seasons in which they DIDN’T strike out the way they usually did is probably more interesting:
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
SO
|
X SO
|
SO
|
Dave
|
Kingman
|
1985
|
114
|
163
|
-48.8
|
Ed
|
Brinkman
|
1970
|
41
|
88
|
-47.4
|
Andruw
|
Jones
|
2000
|
100
|
147
|
-47.1
|
Jim
|
Edmonds
|
1997
|
80
|
124
|
-43.7
|
Frank
|
Howard
|
1969
|
96
|
139
|
-43.4
|
Ivan
|
Rodriguez
|
1996
|
55
|
98
|
-43.3
|
Dan
|
Uggla
|
2006
|
123
|
166
|
-43.3
|
Jack
|
Clark
|
1978
|
72
|
115
|
-43.1
|
Mike
|
Schmidt
|
1988
|
42
|
84
|
-42.4
|
Bill
|
Hall
|
2005
|
103
|
144
|
-41.3
|
Ed Brinkman and Dave Kingman; who would figure them for pair? Dave Kingman and Richie Sexson are a matched set; Ed Brinkman and Roy McMillan are a matched set. Dave Kingman and Ed Brinkman, not so much. Willie Mays, same season (1971) is also 11th on the list of players drawing way more walks than they normally would. Mays, 40 years old and holding on to the last of his glory, obviously decided to take more pitches that year to get on base for McCovey. Mays’ God Son drew 100 walks more in 2004 than expected:
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
BB
|
X BB
|
BB
|
Barry
|
Bonds
|
2004
|
232
|
125
|
106.8
|
Barry
|
Bonds
|
2002
|
198
|
124
|
73.8
|
Jimmy
|
Sheckard
|
1911
|
147
|
88
|
59.4
|
Frank
|
Howard
|
1970
|
132
|
75
|
56.9
|
Bob
|
Elliott
|
1948
|
131
|
80
|
51.3
|
Dave
|
Robertson
|
1914
|
70
|
19
|
51.3
|
Ty
|
Cobb
|
1915
|
118
|
67
|
51.1
|
Gary
|
Sheffield
|
1996
|
142
|
91
|
50.8
|
Jack
|
Clark
|
1987
|
136
|
86
|
50.4
|
Sammy
|
Sosa
|
2001
|
116
|
67
|
49.3
|
Willie
|
Mays
|
1971
|
112
|
63
|
49.1
|
Willie
|
McCovey
|
1970
|
137
|
89
|
48.4
|
Jimmy
|
Wynn
|
1969
|
148
|
100
|
48.2
|
Johnny
|
Evers
|
1910
|
108
|
60
|
48.0
|
Mark
|
McGwire
|
1998
|
162
|
117
|
44.9
|
Toby
|
Harrah
|
1985
|
113
|
69
|
44.5
|
Eddie
|
Joost
|
1949
|
149
|
105
|
44.1
|
I extended that list out because I thought the names on down the list (Toby Harrah and Eddie Joost) were interesting. Toby Harrah had that kind of a career; he was always outstanding at something, but you never knew what it would be in any given season. The three guys I would describe as being like that, with career numbers all over the map in multiple categories, are Toby Harrah, Wally Moses and Tommy Harper. 86 of Bonds 107 unexpected walks were intentional walks:
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
IBB
|
X IBB
|
IBB
|
Barry
|
Bonds
|
2004
|
120
|
34
|
86.3
|
Barry
|
Bonds
|
2002
|
68
|
33
|
34.6
|
Barry
|
Bonds
|
2003
|
61
|
30
|
31.0
|
Willie
|
McCovey
|
1969
|
45
|
16
|
29.2
|
Don
|
Baylor
|
1986
|
35
|
9
|
26.4
|
Sammy
|
Sosa
|
2001
|
37
|
11
|
26.0
|
Willie
|
McCovey
|
1970
|
40
|
16
|
23.9
|
Craig
|
Biggio
|
2003
|
27
|
6
|
21.3
|
John
|
Olerud
|
1993
|
33
|
12
|
21.2
|
Kevin
|
Mitchell
|
1989
|
32
|
12
|
20.1
|
Spike
|
Owen
|
1989
|
25
|
5
|
19.7
|
George
|
Brett
|
1985
|
31
|
12
|
19.0
|
Roberto
|
Clemente
|
1968
|
27
|
9
|
18.3
|
Frank
|
Thomas
|
1995
|
29
|
11
|
18.2
|
Tim
|
Raines
|
1987
|
26
|
9
|
17.2
|
Who would ever guess that Tim Raines would be intentionally walked 26 times in a season? Raines was 50-for-55 stealing bases that year, but he was a great hitter, too. Here’s another fun fact about these lists: Did you know (and would you believe) that Willie Mays in 1971 and Barry Bonds in his incredible 2004 season (232 walks) were basically the same age? They were. Both of them turned 40 in mid-season, Mays in May and Bonds in July. Just two months difference in their ages. The list of players drawing FEWER intentional walks in a season than their career norms is the same players in different seasons, except that it is even more ridiculously Barry Bonds-dominated:
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
IBB
|
X IBB
|
IBB
|
Barry
|
Bonds
|
1987
|
3
|
33
|
-30.3
|
Barry
|
Bonds
|
1986
|
2
|
26
|
-24.4
|
Barry
|
Bonds
|
1988
|
14
|
34
|
-19.5
|
Barry
|
Bonds
|
1990
|
15
|
34
|
-18.9
|
Barry
|
Bonds
|
1989
|
22
|
37
|
-15.1
|
Barry
|
Bonds
|
1999
|
9
|
24
|
-14.7
|
Vladimir
|
Guerrero
|
2011
|
3
|
16
|
-13.2
|
Vladimir
|
Guerrero
|
2010
|
5
|
18
|
-12.7
|
Barry
|
Bonds
|
1995
|
22
|
35
|
-12.7
|
Chipper
|
Jones
|
1996
|
0
|
12
|
-11.6
|
Willie
|
McCovey
|
1965
|
5
|
16
|
-11.2
|
Barry
|
Bonds
|
2000
|
22
|
33
|
-11.1
|
George
|
Brett
|
1990
|
0
|
11
|
-10.9
|
Eddie
|
Murray
|
1993
|
0
|
11
|
-10.9
|
Willie
|
McCovey
|
1963
|
5
|
16
|
-10.9
|
The list for hits above/below average and the list for batting average are sort of generally the same list, although not entirely. I’ll do the batting average list first, and I’ll extend this out to 50 players because batting average is a focal point. I considered a player eligible for this list if he had 400 plate appearances in a season:
Rank
|
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
Avg
|
Margin
|
Career
|
1
|
Tito
|
Francona
|
1959
|
.363
|
.091
|
.272
|
2
|
Norm
|
Cash
|
1961
|
.361
|
.089
|
.271
|
3
|
Nap
|
Lajoie
|
1901
|
.426
|
.088
|
.338
|
4
|
George
|
Brett
|
1980
|
.390
|
.085
|
.305
|
5
|
George
|
Watkins
|
1930
|
.373
|
.085
|
.288
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6
|
Andres
|
Galarraga
|
1993
|
.370
|
.082
|
.288
|
7
|
Jimmy
|
Sheckard
|
1901
|
.354
|
.080
|
.274
|
8
|
George
|
Sisler
|
1922
|
.420
|
.080
|
.340
|
9
|
Luke
|
Appling
|
1936
|
.388
|
.077
|
.310
|
10
|
Germany
|
Schaefer
|
1911
|
.334
|
.077
|
.257
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11
|
Heinie
|
Zimmerman
|
1912
|
.372
|
.076
|
.295
|
12
|
Miguel
|
Dilone
|
1980
|
.341
|
.076
|
.265
|
13
|
Cy
|
Seymour
|
1905
|
.377
|
.074
|
.303
|
14
|
Mariano
|
Duncan
|
1996
|
.340
|
.073
|
.267
|
15
|
Darin
|
Erstad
|
2000
|
.355
|
.073
|
.282
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
16
|
Elston
|
Howard
|
1961
|
.348
|
.073
|
.274
|
17
|
John
|
Knight
|
1910
|
.312
|
.073
|
.239
|
18
|
Bill
|
Sweeney
|
1912
|
.344
|
.072
|
.272
|
19
|
Barry
|
Bonds
|
2002
|
.370
|
.072
|
.298
|
20
|
Paul
|
O'Neill
|
1994
|
.359
|
.071
|
.288
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
21
|
Jeff
|
Bagwell
|
1994
|
.367
|
.071
|
.297
|
22
|
Johnny
|
Evers
|
1912
|
.341
|
.071
|
.270
|
23
|
Roger
|
Bresnahan
|
1903
|
.350
|
.070
|
.279
|
24
|
Bill
|
Bradley
|
1902
|
.340
|
.069
|
.271
|
25
|
Josh
|
Hamilton
|
2010
|
.359
|
.069
|
.290
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
26
|
Rich
|
Reese
|
1969
|
.322
|
.069
|
.253
|
27
|
Sam
|
Crawford
|
1911
|
.378
|
.069
|
.309
|
28
|
Walton
|
Cruise
|
1921
|
.346
|
.068
|
.277
|
29
|
John
|
Olerud
|
1993
|
.363
|
.068
|
.295
|
30
|
Babe
|
Herman
|
1930
|
.393
|
.068
|
.324
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
31
|
Freddy
|
Lindstrom
|
1930
|
.379
|
.068
|
.311
|
32
|
Arky
|
Vaughan
|
1935
|
.385
|
.067
|
.318
|
33
|
George
|
Sisler
|
1920
|
.407
|
.067
|
.340
|
34
|
Chief
|
Meyers
|
1912
|
.358
|
.067
|
.291
|
35
|
Rico
|
Carty
|
1970
|
.366
|
.067
|
.299
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
36
|
Mickey
|
Mantle
|
1957
|
.365
|
.067
|
.298
|
37
|
Mickey
|
Vernon
|
1946
|
.353
|
.067
|
.286
|
38
|
Larry
|
Walker
|
1999
|
.379
|
.066
|
.313
|
39
|
Charlie
|
Hickman
|
1902
|
.361
|
.066
|
.295
|
40
|
Harry
|
Walker
|
1947
|
.363
|
.066
|
.296
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
41
|
Chuck
|
Klein
|
1930
|
.386
|
.066
|
.320
|
42
|
Jason
|
Giambi
|
2001
|
.342
|
.066
|
.277
|
43
|
Joe
|
Torre
|
1971
|
.363
|
.065
|
.297
|
44
|
Bret
|
Boone
|
2001
|
.331
|
.065
|
.266
|
45
|
Rogers
|
Hornsby
|
1924
|
.424
|
.065
|
.358
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
46
|
Jorge
|
Posada
|
2007
|
.338
|
.065
|
.273
|
47
|
Carlos
|
Delgado
|
2000
|
.344
|
.065
|
.280
|
48
|
Rob
|
Wilfong
|
1979
|
.313
|
.064
|
.248
|
49
|
Barry
|
Bonds
|
2004
|
.362
|
.064
|
.298
|
50
|
Goose
|
Goslin
|
1928
|
.379
|
.063
|
.316
|
Lot of first-year regulars on that list, lot of MVPs, lot of batting champions. This is the list for worst batting averages relative to career, which includes a lot of guys named "Charles":
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
Avg
|
Margin
|
Career
|
Chuck
|
Klein
|
1940
|
.218
|
-.103
|
.320
|
Charlie
|
Jamieson
|
1918
|
.202
|
-.101
|
.303
|
Charlie
|
Gehringer
|
1941
|
.220
|
-.100
|
.320
|
Nap
|
Lajoie
|
1916
|
.246
|
-.092
|
.338
|
Joe
|
Dugan
|
1918
|
.195
|
-.086
|
.280
|
Clyde
|
Milan
|
1909
|
.200
|
-.085
|
.285
|
George H.
|
Burns
|
1917
|
.226
|
-.081
|
.307
|
Nap
|
Lajoie
|
1914
|
.258
|
-.080
|
.338
|
Jimmy
|
Williams
|
1909
|
.195
|
-.080
|
.275
|
Billy
|
Williams
|
1976
|
.211
|
-.079
|
.290
|
Steve
|
O'Neill
|
1917
|
.184
|
-.079
|
.263
|
Adam
|
Dunn
|
2011
|
.159
|
-.078
|
.237
|
Rogers
|
Hornsby
|
1918
|
.281
|
-.077
|
.358
|
Jimmy
|
Collins
|
1908
|
.217
|
-.077
|
.294
|
Stan
|
Musial
|
1959
|
.255
|
-.076
|
.331
|
Here’s the top 15 by hits over expectation in a season:
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
Avg
|
H
|
Margin
|
Career
|
Jimmy
|
Sheckard
|
1901
|
.354
|
57.2
|
.080
|
.274
|
Nap
|
Lajoie
|
1901
|
.426
|
51.6
|
.088
|
.338
|
Darin
|
Erstad
|
2000
|
.355
|
48.4
|
.073
|
.282
|
Mickey
|
Vernon
|
1946
|
.353
|
45.1
|
.067
|
.286
|
Miguel
|
Dilone
|
1980
|
.341
|
42.5
|
.076
|
.265
|
George
|
Sisler
|
1922
|
.420
|
42.0
|
.080
|
.340
|
Joe
|
Torre
|
1971
|
.363
|
41.9
|
.065
|
.297
|
Chuck
|
Klein
|
1930
|
.386
|
41.8
|
.066
|
.320
|
Bill
|
Bradley
|
1902
|
.340
|
41.8
|
.069
|
.271
|
Andres
|
Galarraga
|
1993
|
.370
|
41.6
|
.082
|
.288
|
Earl
|
Averill
|
1936
|
.378
|
41.2
|
.060
|
.318
|
Bret
|
Boone
|
2001
|
.331
|
41.2
|
.065
|
.266
|
George
|
Sisler
|
1920
|
.407
|
41.1
|
.067
|
.340
|
Cy
|
Seymour
|
1905
|
.377
|
40.4
|
.074
|
.303
|
Topsy
|
Hartsel
|
1901
|
.335
|
40.3
|
.059
|
.276
|
1901 was an expansion year; baseball went from one eight-team league to two eight-team leagues, so a lot of guys had good years. It is kind of the end of the 19th century instability. Here are the players who are short by the most hits. . .mostly Hall of Famers hitting a wall:
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
Avg
|
H
|
Margin
|
Career
|
Charlie
|
Gehringer
|
1941
|
.220
|
-52.9
|
-.100
|
.320
|
Charlie
|
Jamieson
|
1918
|
.202
|
-41.7
|
-.101
|
.303
|
Honus
|
Wagner
|
1914
|
.252
|
-40.2
|
-.076
|
.327
|
Chuck
|
Klein
|
1940
|
.218
|
-38.8
|
-.103
|
.320
|
Nap
|
Lajoie
|
1908
|
.289
|
-38.7
|
-.049
|
.338
|
Hank
|
Aaron
|
1975
|
.234
|
-37.9
|
-.071
|
.305
|
Dave
|
Bancroft
|
1916
|
.212
|
-37.8
|
-.067
|
.279
|
Joe
|
Kuhel
|
1943
|
.213
|
-37.1
|
-.064
|
.277
|
Nap
|
Lajoie
|
1914
|
.258
|
-37.1
|
-.080
|
.338
|
Clyde
|
Milan
|
1909
|
.200
|
-36.2
|
-.085
|
.285
|
Hank
|
Greenberg
|
1947
|
.249
|
-36.2
|
-.065
|
.313
|
Nap
|
Lajoie
|
1916
|
.246
|
-36.0
|
-.092
|
.338
|
Fielder
|
Jones
|
1906
|
.230
|
-35.4
|
-.055
|
.285
|
Joe
|
Dugan
|
1918
|
.195
|
-35.3
|
-.086
|
.280
|
Wade
|
Boggs
|
1992
|
.259
|
-34.6
|
-.069
|
.328
|
I’m running a little long here; I’d better cut through some of these quickly. The record for singles in a season, more than expected, is by Stan Spence in 1942; Spence hit .323 that year with only four homers, whereas he usually hit around .280 with 15 homers. Second on the list is Willie Montanez, 1976. At the bottom of the list was Fielder Jones, 1906, short by 40 singles. But he had a good year, anyway; he was the player/manager for the 1906 World Champions, the Hitless Wonders. The leader for Extra Base Hits in a season over expectation is Brady Anderson, 1996, +37, followed by Adam Comorosky, 1930, +35. Most Extra Base Hits UNDER expectation is Kirby Puckett, 1984, negative 34.
Five players have exceeded their normal total bases in a season by 100, while only one has ever missed his norm by 100. The five who beat their normal total bases by 100 are Brady Anderson, 1996 (+124), Luis Gonzalez, 2001 (+116), Jimmy Sheckard, 1901 (+104), George Sisler, 1920 (+102) and Nap Lajoie, 1901 (+101). So we know that George Sisler was definitely using steroids. The one who missed by 100 was Hank Aaron in 1975, -102. Mark McGwire, 1991, is second on that list at -93.
The worst season for Grounding Into Double Plays was Brad Ausmus in 2002; he grounded into 30, whereas his expectation based on career numbers would have been 14, so that’s +16. On the other end of that is Joe Torre, 1969. Torre was always fat, as a young player. He came to a career crisis in 1968, caused in part by not being in shape, worked hard, lost a lot of weight, and was also traded that winter to St. Louis, which had artificial turf. He grounded into only ten double plays that year, as opposed to an expectation of 21.9 (-11.9). And has kept the weight off ever since.
The leader in Hit Batsmen over expectations is Ron Hunt, 1971, +25; he was the subject of a recent profile by Craig Wright. On the other end is Minnie Minoso, 1960, at -13.
Bill Bradley in 1908 was credited with SIXTY sacrifice hits, sac bunts, whereas his norm would have been 27. Seems like 27 is quite a few, but anyway, Bradley was +33. Second on that list is Bert Campaneris, 1977, +28, a season I remember. The Rangers signed the 35-year-old Campaneris to be their shortstop, although he had lost a step. He had always been a leadoff hitter, but the Rangers batted him second behind Mike Hargrove, who had a .420 on base percentage but was very slow, and then used Campy to bunt him to second.
That was a tremendously interesting team; somebody should write a book about them, although I don’t know if you could find an audience, but you could find a good book. Lenny Randle lost his job at second base to a rookie, Bump Wills, and punched out his manager (Frank Lucchesi) at the end of spring training. Lucchesi had mishandled the situation, referring to Randle in a press interview as a punk—not appropriate—and then Lucchesi was fired in mid-season. It was a tremendously talented team, basically a team of near-All Stars with two Hall of Fame pitchers in the rotation, but with a fabulously dysfunctional clubhouse, in spite of which they won 94 games. They played .500 ball for 62 games until Lucchesi was fired, caught fire under the new manager, Billy Hunter, who was an excellent manager. I think Hunter eventually moved Wills into the leadoff spot and put Hargrove behind Campy, so Campy wound up with only 40 sacrifice bunts, but it looked for most of the season like it was going to be 50.
Sac Flies. . .Roy White in 1971 had 17 against an expectation of 6, +11.3. Frank Thomas in 1991 had 2 against an expectation of 8, -6.4.
You actually can do this with Games Played, as well; it is a little bit different conceptually, but the same mathematically (Career Games/ Career Plate Appearances, times season Plate Appearances, subtracted from actual games played.) Jerry Martin in 1976 was Greg Luzinski’s glove. The ’76 Phillies had a great defensive center fielder but Luzinski and Jay Johnstone in left and right, which is one more defensive problem than you can live with, so they carried Jerry Martin to pinch hit if the team was behind or to play defense if the team was ahead. He wound up the season with 130 games played but only 129 plate appearances, which is +85 in games played. Dave Collins in 1990 was +76, and the recently lost Otis Nixon was +73 in 1986. On the other end is Dick Hall in 1954. Hall was an outfielder in 1954, a pitcher the rest of his career (and it was a long career), so he is -176 games in 1954, given his career ratio of at bats to games.
Dick Hall for many years after he retired would attend Orioles games, wearing his old Orioles’ uniform from his playing days. Maybe he still does, I don’t know, but anyway, you have to love that. Next to Hall on that list is Greg Gross, 1974, -125. Gross is the opposite of Martin. Martin was a pinch hitter/reserve outfielder his first year and a half, a regular after that, so his ratio of plate appearances/games is very low at the start of his career, whereas Gross, from the same generation, was a regular for a year or two, then had a career as a pinch hitter/reserve outfielder.
There are 21 players in history who have hit twenty home runs more than we would have expected them to hit, based on career numbers. Nine of those 21 did it between 1996 and 2003:
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
HR
|
XHR
|
HR
|
Barry
|
Bonds
|
2001
|
73
|
40
|
32.9
|
Luis
|
Gonzalez
|
2001
|
57
|
24
|
32.5
|
Brady
|
Anderson
|
1996
|
50
|
19
|
31.4
|
Roger
|
Maris
|
1961
|
61
|
33
|
28.2
|
Davey
|
Johnson
|
1973
|
43
|
16
|
26.8
|
Hack
|
Wilson
|
1930
|
56
|
31
|
24.9
|
Tilly
|
Walker
|
1922
|
37
|
13
|
23.6
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jay
|
Bell
|
1999
|
38
|
16
|
22.3
|
Andre
|
Dawson
|
1987
|
49
|
27
|
22.1
|
Carl
|
Yastrzemski
|
1967
|
44
|
22
|
22.0
|
Todd
|
Helton
|
2001
|
49
|
27
|
21.8
|
Sammy
|
Sosa
|
1998
|
66
|
44
|
21.6
|
Cy
|
Williams
|
1923
|
41
|
20
|
21.4
|
George
|
Foster
|
1977
|
52
|
31
|
21.3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hank
|
Greenberg
|
1938
|
58
|
37
|
21.0
|
Javier (c)
|
Lopez
|
2003
|
43
|
22
|
20.8
|
Ted
|
Kluszewski
|
1954
|
49
|
28
|
20.6
|
Sammy
|
Sosa
|
2001
|
64
|
44
|
20.2
|
George
|
Bell
|
1987
|
47
|
27
|
20.2
|
Goose
|
Goslin
|
1930
|
37
|
17
|
20.1
|
Shawn
|
Green
|
2001
|
49
|
29
|
20.1
|
The list of players NOT hitting their usual number of homers also has a steroid division and a non-steroid division. Many or most of the players below are steroid players before they discovered better living through chemistry. The record-holder in the non-steroid division is Lou Gehrig, 1926:
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
HR
|
XHR
|
Diff
|
Mark
|
McGwire
|
1991
|
22
|
45
|
-22.5
|
Barry
|
Bonds
|
1989
|
19
|
41
|
-22.0
|
Rafael
|
Palmeiro
|
1989
|
8
|
30
|
-21.9
|
Rafael
|
Palmeiro
|
1988
|
8
|
30
|
-21.7
|
Sammy
|
Sosa
|
1990
|
15
|
36
|
-20.6
|
Lou
|
Gehrig
|
1926
|
16
|
36
|
-19.5
|
Gary
|
Gaetti
|
1984
|
5
|
24
|
-18.6
|
Hank
|
Aaron
|
1975
|
12
|
29
|
-17.4
|
Rafael
|
Palmeiro
|
1990
|
14
|
31
|
-16.8
|
Adam
|
Dunn
|
2011
|
11
|
28
|
-16.5
|
Mark
|
McGwire
|
1988
|
32
|
48
|
-16.3
|
Vladimir
|
Guerrero
|
2011
|
13
|
29
|
-16.2
|
Carlos
|
Lee
|
2012
|
9
|
25
|
-16.1
|
Ken
|
Caminiti
|
1990
|
4
|
20
|
-16.0
|
Jeff
|
Bagwell
|
1991
|
15
|
31
|
-15.9
|
Ralph
|
Kiner
|
1954
|
22
|
38
|
-15.9
|
Ted
|
Kluszewski
|
1949
|
8
|
24
|
-15.7
|
Kirby
|
Puckett
|
1985
|
4
|
20
|
-15.7
|
Frank
|
Thomas
|
1999
|
15
|
31
|
-15.5
|
Gary
|
Sheffield
|
1990
|
10
|
25
|
-15.4
|
Kirby
|
Puckett
|
1984
|
0
|
15
|
-15.4
|
When I became a baseball fan in 1960, Ty Cobb held the "modern" record for stolen bases, with 96. His record was beaten by Maury Wills, 1962, with 104, and then Wills was beaten by Lou Brock, 1974, with 118, and then by Rickey Henderson, 1982, with 130. They’re 1-2-4-5 on the chart below:
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
SB
|
X SB
|
Margin
|
Rickey
|
Henderson
|
1982
|
130
|
69
|
60.9
|
Lou
|
Brock
|
1974
|
118
|
59
|
59.5
|
Eric
|
Davis
|
1986
|
80
|
28
|
52.4
|
Maury
|
Wills
|
1962
|
104
|
54
|
50.4
|
Ty
|
Cobb
|
1915
|
96
|
48
|
48.2
|
Clyde
|
Milan
|
1912
|
88
|
40
|
47.9
|
Marquis
|
Grissom
|
1991
|
76
|
29
|
47.4
|
Marquis
|
Grissom
|
1992
|
78
|
34
|
44.1
|
Maury
|
Wills
|
1965
|
94
|
50
|
43.9
|
Tim
|
Raines
|
1981
|
71
|
28
|
42.7
|
61 is the magic number here. Appling was +61 in RBI, Lajoie +61 in runs scored, Rickey was +61 in stolen bases. Those having seasons in which they DIDN’T steal the bases they usually do is the same players:
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
SB
|
X SB
|
Margin
|
Ty
|
Cobb
|
1923
|
9
|
44
|
-35.1
|
Ty
|
Cobb
|
1922
|
9
|
42
|
-32.8
|
Tim
|
Raines
|
1995
|
13
|
45
|
-32.3
|
Maury
|
Wills
|
1971
|
15
|
46
|
-31.2
|
Matt
|
Alexander
|
1974
|
8
|
39
|
-31.1
|
Ron
|
LeFlore
|
1975
|
28
|
55
|
-27.2
|
Ty
|
Cobb
|
1924
|
23
|
50
|
-26.5
|
Rickey
|
Henderson
|
1996
|
37
|
63
|
-26.4
|
Ron
|
LeFlore
|
1977
|
39
|
65
|
-26.2
|
Marquis
|
Grissom
|
2004
|
3
|
29
|
-26.0
|
This research has both a serious side and a fun side which kicks out freak show stats. This is the fun side, the freak show lists. I’ll try to publish the other side of the research next week, although I haven’t written that up yet and can’t be sure when I will get to it. Thanks.