I’m working on my next big project, coming up soon, which I think will be a blast (at least I hope the membership agrees). In the meantime, though, I had a fairly brief (at least for me) article that I wanted to post.
Much has been written about the topic of age in baseball. How players age, figuring out the prime, etc. I was interested in taking a look at players and their value in and across various age brackets, which led to this.
I like to use different sites for different information and different data pulls. Certainly, Baseball-reference.com is a terrific resource, probably the one I consult more than anything else. I also am very fond of Seamheads.com (with "the Baseball Gauge") for many different studies, as they have some terrific and interesting tools. In this case, I used Fangraphs.com as they have a really nice filtering tool that lets you download data by various criteria, one of which is by age range, and it was a good fit for what I was looking for. So, in this study, the WAR metric being leveraged is fWAR rather than rWAR, which is what I normally use, but I think either one would yield fairly similar results.
I’m using fWAR in total, so I’m looking at overall value by age brackets, rather than isolating offense or defense or anything else. In this particular study, I was interested in position players/hitting/defense rather than pitchers. I think I’ll look at them another time.
I started by downloading player data into 4 different age brackets/quadrants, and we’ll label them (kind of) like the stages of the "Product Life Cycle" (which are technically Introduction/Growth/Maturity/Decline, but they’re similar):
- Age 24 or below ( "Emerging")
- Age 25-29 ("Prime")
- Age 30-34 ("Mature")
- Age 35 or older ("Decline")
For starters, let’s look at some basic data. How much does each age bracket represent in terms of player value? Here’s how the data looks by various groups, starting with all players in the data, and then filtering from there.
% of Career Value by Age Quadrant by Various Categories
Category
|
Emerging
24 or less
|
Prime
25-29
|
Mature
30-34
|
Decline
35+
|
All Players in Data
|
16%
|
49%
|
29%
|
7%
|
Players with 3,000+ PA
|
16%
|
47%
|
30%
|
7%
|
Players with 5,000+ PA
|
17%
|
43%
|
31%
|
9%
|
Hall of Fame Players
|
20%
|
38%
|
30%
|
13%
|
Players with Value in all 4 Quadrants
|
15%
|
41%
|
34%
|
10%
|
"Players with Value in all 4 Quadrants" really means that, in order to be included in that particular slice, the player had to have some data in each of the 4 age quadrants. For example, Sam Rice debuted in his age 25 season, so he had no registered value (either negative or positive) in the "24 or less" bracket, so he’s excluded from that category. By the same token, Ron Santo’s last season was at age 34, so he had no value in the 35+ bracket, so he’s not included in that category either.
So, looking at this implies that, for the overall population of players, almost 50% of the collective value is achieved in the "Prime" years of 25-29. It also implies that, the longer a player plays, and the better he is, the less of his total value appears in the "prime" bracket, and the more appears in others. Again, I think that makes intuitive sense….. longer and better careers seem consistent with having a higher-than-normal % of your total value achieved both in the early and the late stages of your career. Good players tend to emerge quicker, and tend to stay around longer. That seems to be consistent.
Below is another table, looking at % of total career value by level of fWAR across the 4 age quadrants.
% of Career Value by Age Quadrant and fWAR Group
Career fWAR
|
# Players
|
Emerging
24 or less
|
Prime
25-29
|
Mature
30-34
|
Decline
35+
|
Zero or Less
|
9,812
|
32%
|
49%
|
16%
|
3%
|
> 0 through 10
|
4,870
|
19%
|
60%
|
20%
|
2%
|
> 10 through 20
|
658
|
16%
|
57%
|
25%
|
2%
|
> 20 through 30
|
357
|
16%
|
51%
|
29%
|
4%
|
> 30 through 40
|
196
|
16%
|
45%
|
32%
|
7%
|
> 40 through 50
|
131
|
16%
|
44%
|
31%
|
9%
|
> 50 through 60
|
61
|
16%
|
40%
|
34%
|
10%
|
> 60 through 70
|
64
|
18%
|
38%
|
32%
|
12%
|
> 70 through 80
|
22
|
21%
|
38%
|
29%
|
11%
|
> 80
|
36
|
21%
|
33%
|
28%
|
18%
|
Totals
|
16,207
|
16%
|
49%
|
29%
|
7%
|
The overwhelming majority of players are in the first 2 groups (about 60% achieve 0 or negative fWAR, and about 30% end up between zero and 10). Again, this implies that the players that accumulate a lot of value tend to realize a higher-than-normal percent of their career value both when emerging and when declining. Again, this probably isn’t earth-shattering to you, as you would expect better players to both get started early with their careers AND last longer. Players that aren’t as good cram more of their value into the 25-29 age bracket because, by and large, a lot of them never make it past that age.
Among the highest performers (those with fWARs higher than 80), a whopping 18% of their value is achieved during age 35 and later, and 21% is achieved in the 24 and under bracket.
Here’s a look at those with more than 80 career fWAR and their % of total value by bracket. Again, these players tended to have high percentage of value achieved outside of the prime, which is part of what made them achieve such great career totals. (I excluded Albert Pujols from this table, even though they’re above that threshold, since they’re still active and building their 35+ total):
Name
|
Career fWAR
|
Emerging
24 or less
|
Prime
25-29
|
Mature
30-34
|
Decline
35+
|
Babe Ruth
|
168.5
|
10.9%
|
36.3%
|
27.9%
|
25.0%
|
Barry Bonds
|
164.4
|
12.9%
|
26.6%
|
22.9%
|
37.7%
|
Willie Mays
|
149.9
|
16.1%
|
27.3%
|
33.2%
|
23.3%
|
Ty Cobb
|
149.4
|
31.6%
|
26.2%
|
22.5%
|
19.7%
|
Honus Wagner
|
138.1
|
3.5%
|
26.3%
|
36.5%
|
33.7%
|
Hank Aaron
|
136.3
|
20.8%
|
29.9%
|
26.1%
|
23.3%
|
Tris Speaker
|
130.5
|
23.1%
|
30.7%
|
24.8%
|
21.5%
|
Ted Williams
|
130.4
|
27.9%
|
23.5%
|
18.3%
|
30.2%
|
Rogers Hornsby
|
130.3
|
27.4%
|
40.1%
|
27.2%
|
5.3%
|
Stan Musial
|
126.8
|
20.0%
|
31.6%
|
29.1%
|
19.2%
|
Eddie Collins
|
120.5
|
23.3%
|
34.3%
|
21.6%
|
20.8%
|
Lou Gehrig
|
116.4
|
19.9%
|
37.6%
|
38.4%
|
4.0%
|
Mickey Mantle
|
112.4
|
36.6%
|
39.2%
|
18.3%
|
5.9%
|
Mel Ott
|
110.5
|
34.9%
|
34.7%
|
22.4%
|
8.1%
|
Mike Schmidt
|
106.5
|
10.9%
|
36.1%
|
35.7%
|
17.4%
|
Rickey Henderson
|
106.3
|
25.0%
|
30.2%
|
30.8%
|
14.0%
|
Frank Robinson
|
104.0
|
26.9%
|
30.4%
|
28.6%
|
14.1%
|
Nap Lajoie
|
102.2
|
13.2%
|
34.1%
|
31.7%
|
21.0%
|
Jimmie Foxx
|
101.8
|
36.7%
|
37.2%
|
25.6%
|
0.4%
|
Joe Morgan
|
98.8
|
13.1%
|
31.0%
|
36.8%
|
19.1%
|
Eddie Mathews
|
96.1
|
33.4%
|
37.7%
|
27.1%
|
1.9%
|
Carl Yastrzemski
|
94.8
|
16.6%
|
37.8%
|
25.5%
|
20.1%
|
Cal Ripken
|
92.5
|
30.1%
|
29.6%
|
28.8%
|
11.6%
|
Cap Anson
|
91.2
|
14.7%
|
18.3%
|
24.1%
|
42.9%
|
Al Kaline
|
88.8
|
36.4%
|
28.2%
|
23.8%
|
11.7%
|
Wade Boggs
|
88.3
|
4.4%
|
44.3%
|
31.4%
|
19.9%
|
Roger Connor
|
86.2
|
10.6%
|
34.5%
|
31.3%
|
23.7%
|
George Brett
|
84.7
|
23.5%
|
36.5%
|
26.4%
|
13.6%
|
Chipper Jones
|
84.6
|
11.1%
|
35.6%
|
25.9%
|
27.4%
|
George Davis
|
84.6
|
27.4%
|
29.3%
|
28.5%
|
14.8%
|
Joe DiMaggio
|
83.1
|
34.5%
|
28.6%
|
26.6%
|
10.2%
|
Roberto Clemente
|
80.6
|
9.9%
|
28.4%
|
42.8%
|
18.9%
|
Pete Rose
|
80.2
|
9.9%
|
30.3%
|
36.0%
|
23.8%
|
Jeff Bagwell
|
80.1
|
11.0%
|
41.8%
|
38.1%
|
9.1%
|
So, who tended to have "normal" age patterns? I decided to focus on players that achieved at least 3,000 PA. Again, here’s the overall spread for that group:
Category
|
Emerging
24 or less
|
Prime
25-29
|
Mature
30-34
|
Decline
35+
|
3,000+ PA
|
16%
|
47%
|
30%
|
7%
|
Using a simple comparison formula (finding the absolute value difference between a player’s figure in each bracket vs. the overall figure, and then adding them up), these players came up as most closely matching the overall, normal spread:
Name
|
Emerging
24 or less
|
Prime
25-29
|
Mature
30-34
|
Decline
35+
|
Matt Williams
|
17.0%
|
48.2%
|
30.8%
|
4.0%
|
Nellie Fox
|
16.6%
|
46.2%
|
33.0%
|
4.2%
|
Carlos Beltran
|
15.5%
|
43.9%
|
30.8%
|
9.9%
|
Bobby Abreu
|
12.0%
|
49.5%
|
30.6%
|
7.9%
|
Jerry Hairston
|
12.9%
|
51.1%
|
28.8%
|
7.2%
|
Tim Wallach
|
12.5%
|
49.2%
|
32.2%
|
6.1%
|
Jimmy Rollins
|
11.6%
|
50.1%
|
30.2%
|
8.1%
|
Jack Glasscock
|
13.6%
|
44.7%
|
33.7%
|
8.0%
|
Al Simmons
|
19.0%
|
48.8%
|
26.4%
|
5.8%
|
Frank Baker
|
18.3%
|
49.8%
|
26.6%
|
5.3%
|
Beltran is still active, so his final spreads will probably change some. There are certainly some good players on here, including 3 Hall of Famers (Fox, Simmons, Baker), and Beltran may make it someday too.
Who had some unusual spreads? Below is a list of players (minimum 3,000 PA’s and 10.0 fWAR) that had the largest % of their career value achieved in the 24 or less age bracket:
Name
|
Emerging
24 or less
|
Prime
25-29
|
Mature
30-34
|
Decline
35+
|
Whitey Lockman
|
97.5%
|
18.5%
|
-16.0%
|
0.0%
|
Bobby Tolan
|
96.6%
|
18.5%
|
-15.1%
|
0.0%
|
Curt Blefary
|
89.3%
|
10.7%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
Johnny Hodapp
|
85.4%
|
14.6%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
Earl Williams
|
85.2%
|
14.8%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
Ruben Sierra
|
84.9%
|
26.6%
|
-14.4%
|
2.9%
|
Carlos Baerga
|
84.0%
|
19.9%
|
-1.3%
|
-2.6%
|
Vic Saier
|
83.3%
|
16.7%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
Tony Conigliaro
|
81.5%
|
22.7%
|
-4.2%
|
0.0%
|
Fred Carroll
|
80.4%
|
19.6%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
Note that, because fWAR can be negative, some players had "negative value" in certain brackets.
Whitey Lockman was an interesting player. He hit .341 as an 18-year old in 1945 in about 150 plate appearances, then went in the military, came back and by age 21 was a full-time player for the Giants, first in the outfield, then at 1B, consistently hitting in the .280-.300 range. But, he trailed off pretty significantly after his mid-20’s.
Bobby Tolan was an exciting young player for the Reds, who acquired him (and Wayne Granger) from the Cardinals in exchange for an aging Vada Pinson. He was one of my early favorites when I was a young fan, had a couple of really good years in ’69 and ’70, but he injured his Achilles tendon playing basketball and missed all of ’71. Even though he came back in ’72 with a good comeback season, he was never quite the same after that.
Johnny Hodapp was a good, young 2B/3B for the Indians in the late 20’s/early 30’s, had some good years, but essentially fell off a cliff after 25.
Some of these others are probably no surprise to you. Ruben Sierra and Tony Conigliaro were players that many felt were destined for the Hall of Fame based on how they started their careers at early ages, but Sierra, who was the runner-up in the ’89 MVP voting as a 23-year old, stopped developing after his early promise, and Conigliaro, of course, had one of the most famous career-altering injuries in ’67 when he was hit in the face by a Jack Hamilton pitch.
You may already know this, but Conigliaro is still prominent among the career-to-date leaders in HR’s at various early ages.
Through age 19: 1st with 24 (Bryce Harper had 22)
Through age 20: 2nd with 56 (Mel Ott is #1 with 61)
Through age 21: 2nd with 84 (Ott is #1 with 86)
Through age 22: 4th with 104 (Ott leads with 115, followed by Eddie Mathews (112) and A-Rod (106). The age 22 season was the one in which Conigliaro was injured, and he only played 95 games that year
After that, he disappears….but those lists of early age HR leaders is overwhelmingly represented by Hall of Famers: Ott, Mathews, Foxx, Frank Robinson, Griffey Jr., Mantle, Kaline, Ted Williams…they all appear on several of those age leaders, as do players like A-Rod, Trout and Harper.
Most of the players on that first table had career fWARs in the 10-20 range. If we upped the minimum requirement to fWARs of 20 or more, we’d get this group instead:
Name
|
Emerging
24 or less
|
Prime
25-29
|
Mature
30-34
|
Decline
35+
|
Fred Carroll
|
80.4%
|
19.6%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
Freddie Lindstrom
|
77.0%
|
23.9%
|
-1.0%
|
0.0%
|
Buddy Lewis
|
72.9%
|
24.0%
|
3.1%
|
0.0%
|
Dick Hoblitzel
|
63.1%
|
36.9%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
Jim Ray Hart
|
60.5%
|
37.0%
|
2.5%
|
0.0%
|
Garry Templeton
|
60.4%
|
31.0%
|
13.1%
|
-4.5%
|
Stuffy McInnis
|
60.1%
|
29.0%
|
11.2%
|
-0.3%
|
Cecil Travis
|
58.8%
|
43.7%
|
-2.5%
|
0.0%
|
Vada Pinson
|
57.5%
|
33.0%
|
9.9%
|
-0.4%
|
Pete Reiser
|
56.6%
|
34.4%
|
9.0%
|
0.0%
|
Again, several names that you would expect to find. Vada Pinson, although he ended up playing for a long time, famously had his best seasons at early ages. Pistol Pete Reiser, of course, blazed across the sky in the early ‘40’s, and was MVP runner-up in ’41 as a 22-year old, leading the league in runs, triples, batting average, slugging, OPS, OPS+, total bases, and HBP. There are many who swear he was the most exciting player they had ever seen. But, he lost 3 years to military service, and he had a long streak of significant injuries that derailed his career. And, of course, Garry Templeton was a very exciting player to watch at a very young age – the 200 hit seasons, hitting over .300, leading the league in triples 3 straight years, the speed. But, of course, his career unraveled from there, and he’s probably more well known now as being traded (along with others) to San Diego in the deal that netted the Cardinals Ozzie Smith.
You may have also noticed that both Buddy Lewis and Cecil Travis, who played together side-by-side in the Senators’ infield for many years, are on this list. They were both highlighted in Bill’s famous "Memorial" article in the New Historical Baseball Abstract that identified players who were most likely affected by World War II. Lewis lost his age 25-27 years, and Travis lost his age 28-30 seasons. Neither player was the same after returning from service.
How about on the flip side? Which players achieved a high percentage as "mature" players? Again, same stipulations on 3,000 PA’s and fWAR of 10 or more:
Name
|
Emerging
24 or less
|
Prime
25-29
|
Mature
30-34
|
Decline
35+
|
Joe Start
|
0.0%
|
3.5%
|
25.9%
|
70.6%
|
George Harper
|
-3.7%
|
-3.7%
|
50.5%
|
56.9%
|
Jim Eisenreich
|
4.4%
|
-10.5%
|
53.5%
|
52.6%
|
Jamey Carroll
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
47.7%
|
52.3%
|
Hank Sauer
|
0.4%
|
2.8%
|
45.4%
|
51.4%
|
J.T. Snow
|
0.8%
|
17.1%
|
31.0%
|
51.2%
|
Jimmy Austin
|
0.0%
|
5.1%
|
44.9%
|
50.0%
|
Gregg Zaun
|
5.2%
|
12.1%
|
34.5%
|
48.3%
|
Randy Velarde
|
-0.4%
|
17.8%
|
35.6%
|
47.1%
|
Lee Lacy
|
6.5%
|
8.1%
|
40.3%
|
45.2%
|
So, we have Fred Carroll in the "young" group, and Jamey Carroll in the "old" group. Nice symmetry…..
Again, some of these might not surprise you. Most of you are probably very familiar with the story of Hank Sauer, who really didn’t get much of a shot until after 30, and turned in an MVP season at age 35. Sauer hit 281 of his 288 HR’s from age 31 or after, which is the 10th highest total ever.
Lee Lacy had a really interesting career. He was mostly a utility-type player for the Dodgers (plus a pit stop in Atlanta) for most of his early career, and then went to Pittsburgh. Through age 31, his career high in stolen bases was 7. Beginning with his age 32 season, he proceeded to steal 18, 24, 40, 31, and 21. I really don’t know what got into him.
A lot of those guys have career fWARs in the 10-20 range. If you upped the minimum requirement to fWARs of 20 or more, you’d get this group instead:
Name
|
Emerging
24 or less
|
Prime
25-29
|
Mature
30-34
|
Decline
35+
|
Joe Start
|
0.0%
|
3.5%
|
25.9%
|
70.6%
|
Hank Sauer
|
0.4%
|
2.8%
|
45.4%
|
51.4%
|
Randy Velarde
|
-0.4%
|
17.8%
|
35.6%
|
47.1%
|
Mickey Vernon
|
5.8%
|
24.2%
|
25.1%
|
44.9%
|
Sam Rice
|
0.0%
|
18.1%
|
38.0%
|
43.9%
|
Chief Zimmer
|
-2.3%
|
15.7%
|
43.5%
|
43.1%
|
Cap Anson
|
14.7%
|
18.3%
|
24.1%
|
42.9%
|
Luke Appling
|
-1.4%
|
28.5%
|
30.8%
|
42.1%
|
Andres Galarraga
|
-0.6%
|
39.2%
|
19.4%
|
42.0%
|
Dummy Hoy
|
0.0%
|
36.4%
|
21.7%
|
41.9%
|
Joe Start dates all the way back to 1871, which is as far back as the data goes, but he was already 28 by then. Still, he managed to play pretty regularly through age 43, and was certainly a good player, and his inclusion on this list might be a little deceptive, since he really didn’t have an opportunity to generate any value before age 28.
3 Hall of Famers (Rice, Anson, and Appling) are present on this list.
Finally, I just wanted to take a look at which players had the most even distribution of value over their careers, a perfectly even distribution being 25% in each of the 4 quadrants. Here are the ones who came the closest:
Name
|
Career FWAR
|
Emerging
24 or less
|
Prime
25-29
|
Mature
30-34
|
Decline
35+
|
Ellis Burks
|
44.6
|
24.7%
|
21.7%
|
30.3%
|
23.3%
|
Hank Aaron
|
136.3
|
20.8%
|
29.9%
|
26.1%
|
23.3%
|
Chili Davis
|
37.9
|
20.8%
|
30.1%
|
24.3%
|
24.8%
|
Tris Speaker
|
130.5
|
23.1%
|
30.7%
|
24.8%
|
21.5%
|
Ty Cobb
|
149.4
|
31.6%
|
26.2%
|
22.5%
|
19.7%
|
Ted Williams
|
130.4
|
27.9%
|
23.5%
|
18.3%
|
30.2%
|
Bill Dahlen
|
77.6
|
21.4%
|
31.2%
|
28.7%
|
18.7%
|
Stan Musial
|
126.8
|
20.0%
|
31.6%
|
29.1%
|
19.2%
|
Fred Clarke
|
72.8
|
17.6%
|
31.0%
|
28.6%
|
22.8%
|
Eddie Collins
|
120.5
|
23.3%
|
34.3%
|
21.6%
|
20.8%
|
Again, you see mostly Hall of Famers (and not just any garden variety Hall of Famers, but mostly slam dunk, cream of the crop Hall of Famers) dominating this list. Burks, Davis, and Dahlen are the only ones not in. And, who knows….Dahlen may get there someday, too.
One other name caught my attention, and he just missed making the top 10 table above. He was #12.
Name
|
Career FWAR
|
Emerging
24 or less
|
Prime
25-29
|
Mature
30-34
|
Decline
35+
|
Dwight Evans
|
65.1
|
18.7%
|
28.0%
|
33.3%
|
20.0%
|
Really? Dwight Evans? I would have sworn that he would have had a lot more of his value represented in the upper age ranges. That was certainly the perception. And, in one sense, he does skew that way….he has 53% of his career value coming at age 30 or later, which is more than the overall average of 36%.....but nowhere near the leaders. There are about 400 players with 3000+ career PA’s, that had a higher % of their value realized at age 30 or later than Evans.
I think what happened in his case is that, specifically, he had his more impressive hitting seasons in his 30’s, but, at the same time was he was achieving that, his defensive value started to slide. So, I think it’s fair to say that he morphed from an outstanding defensive player with decent offensive skills in his 20’s into a more dangerous hitter (but lesser defensive player) in his 30’s, so that his overall value as a player was actually fairly steady over time.
By the way….who had the highest percentage of their value during age 30 or later? It’s this guy, who had one of the more unusual and interesting careers ever, with over 100% of his career value coming at ages 30 and higher:
Name
|
Career FWAR
|
Emerging
24 or less
|
Prime
25-29
|
Mature
30-34
|
Decline
35+
|
Lefty O'Doul
|
27.1
|
-0.4%
|
-1.5%
|
62.4%
|
39.5%
|
I understand it’s a very popular restaurant too…..
Final observations
Hall of Famers with the highest % of their career value coming at age 30 or after:
Name
|
% of Career Value Age 30 and Later
|
Luke Appling
|
73%
|
Ozzie Smith
|
71%
|
Honus Wagner
|
70%
|
Phil Rizzuto
|
70%
|
Willie Stargell
|
69%
|
Ozzie’s key was that he became a much better hitter in his older years, while still retaining much of his defensive ability. And part of Rizzuto’s situation is that he did lose 3 years in his 20’s to military service.
Also interesting to note that 4 of the 5 players listed above were primarily shortstops.
Hall of Famers with the highest % of their career value before 30:
Name
|
% of Career Value Before Age 30
|
George Sisler
|
90%
|
Ken Griffey Jr.
|
88%
|
Arky Vaughan
|
87%
|
Joe Medwick
|
85%
|
Chuck Klein
|
84%
|
Let me tell you, as a Reds fan, I can certainly attest to (and feel the pain of) the Griffey Jr. inclusion on here. Seattle got all the fun years, where as we, after all the excitement of actually obtaining Junior, who grew up and played high school ball in Cincinnati, basically got 2 decent years and 7 years of frustration and time spent on the disabled list. It’s a sobering thought that, in the years after the trade, Mike Cameron (who was included in the trade to Seattle) was a much more valuable player than Griffey was…and it’s really not even close.
As an aside….I’ve always been fascinated by the fact that the Seattle record breaking 116 win season in 2001 was achieved after Griffey Jr., A-Rod, and Randy Johnson departed (Johnson a couple of years earlier, of course). They lost 3 mega-stars in a pretty brief time…..but still put together an amazing season.
There’s lots more that could be looked at, but that’s what I got for now. If there are any other segments or players that you’re curious about, post a comment and I’ll see what I can do.
Thanks,
Dan