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NO MORE FAKE IGNMENT! WE WANT REAL IGNMENT!

September 19, 2015
Curiously, as I’ve been tinkering with this article, there has been a thread in "Readers’ Posts" on a very similar topic, http://boards.billjamesonline.com/showthread.php?5583-Yup-I-ve-Made-Up-My-Mind-Moments-Ago..., started by the redoubtable nettles9. (That adjective is intended as a compliment, and I think it is, but it always looks to me like it’s saying "Not only do I doubt nettles9,  I doubt him again and again," which I don’t.) This is a continuation of my last piece, on morphing the playoffs into the regular season, making for a more humane playoffs, a more exciting series of playoffs, and a World Series that brings the season to a more satisfying and traditional climax, played without the need for mittens and long underwear.  This time, I’d like to discuss realigning the divisions, expanding baseball into two 16-team leagues, and re-introducing the concept of a genuine pennant race between all of each league’s teams, while still retaining the divisions and the Wild Card.

First things first: let’s talk nomenclature. We’ll still have two leagues, only now with sixteen teams each. The leagues are split into conferences of eight teams each, and the conferences are split into 4-team divisions. The divisions would be arranged strictly geographically, though out west proximity is sometimes an elusive concept. (Denver, hello? Are you really close to anywhere?)

Next things next: the point of small divisions built of mostly neighboring cities. For me, there’s something very appealing about knowing the opposing team as well as you can. I really enjoy games when I know the other team’s roster, their manager’s style, their rookies, their ballpark’s quirks as well as I know my own. I wish I truly lived in the time of each big league having only eight teams. (Technically, I did, but I spent most of those years learning how to pee properly and how to tie my Keds.) When your team has only seven opponents whom you play over and over, I imagine you get pretty familiar with each team’s roster.

In 2015, though, that’s all gone. Nowadays, when other teams come into my ballpark, the first question I ask myself is "How many players on this team could I pick out of a police lineup?" and very often the answer is a sad "0."  Maybe an opposing player or two played for my team in a previous season, or for a close rival, but I’m often left wondering who the vast majority of the other players are, especially if this is a team that I haven’t seen in a few seasons.  And I enjoy knowing this stuff—how the player broke into MLB, what his special skill set is, what his personality is. Learning all this for 29 opponents is too much like work.

Personally, seven opponents is about all I can handle, or want to.  I’m capable of memorizing seven rosters, in a way that I’m totally incapable of even getting roughly familiar with 29 opponents, their roster moves, their minor injuries, their hot prospects, and their slumping and streaking players.  I prefer knowing fewer opponents intimately to knowing more opponents vaguely. 

Almost as much as a greater familiarity with the game happening on the field, though, would be the convenience to the fans—now instead of being mostly restricted to home games, most away games would be fairly  easy, sometime very easy, to attend. In fact, for some people away games would actually be more convenient to attend than home games.  There are many, many fans in Chicago, in L.A., in New York who live closer to the ballpark of their team’s hometown rival than they do to their own team’s ballpark. Even if this doesn’t apply, the distances to travel to your furthest divisional rival’s park is not prohibitive. Mostly, we’re talking a few hours in the car. (Again, except Denver, which is several states away from everywhere.)  I can easily imagine fans in Chicago and Milwaukee selling out all three stadiums as fans come in from all over the region to watch a Cubs-Brewers game or a Brewers-White Sox matchup. Under this set-up, three-quarters of the schedule, if not much more, would be easy for most fans to attend games.

This brings up the subject of Inter-League Play, which would die its inglorious death under my plan. I-LP was introduced in 1997, as I recall, to allow NL fans a rare sighting of that mythical beast, the AL player,  and vice-versa, whom they could previously view only during the World Series, All-Star game, and solar eclipses. But now, since 2002, we have MLB-TV subscriptions. If you have a subscription, now you can watch any game you damned well please. And if you don’t have a subscription, like me, that pretty much means that watching a late-night game between the Mariners and the A’s if you’re an east-coast NL fan, like me, probably isn’t the most crucial event on your calendar.  I-LP may have been a good idea in its time, but we’ve since made its purpose obsolete—time to consign it to the dustbin of history, as Hal Trosky famously put it.

So let’s explore the concept of divisional play, which reduces even the old-fashioned eight-team leagues to 4-team divisions.

 

Red Sox

Yankees

Mets

Phillies

Pittsburgh

Cleveland

Toronto

Detroit

Cubs

White Sox

Brewers

Twins

Mariners

A’s

Giants

Rockies

 

 

 

 

Washington

Baltimore

Reds

Louisville

Rays

Atlanta

Marlins

Havana

Royals

Cards

Rangers

Astros

Diamondbacks

Angels

Dodgers

Padres

 

 

 

 

 

Notice how you could divide each league geographically either on a North-South (vertical) or an East-West (horizontal) basis. I’m not sure which is preferable—probably the East-West, because of time zones, and also because as a culture we don’t really need to create additional conflicts between Northern and Southern Culture  which are fraught with tension right now. ("Right now" being any time in the past 250 years or so.) Speaking of cultural issues, though, notice too how I’ve introduced two expansion teams, the Louisville Redbirds and the Havana Sugar Kings.  You could argue (and maybe I will, elsewhere) which cities are truly the most deserving of expansion franchises. I just picked these two because they allow my geographic argument to proceed neatly, but any two you pick could, by re-arranging the divisions slightly, form geographic rivalries that work.  For my realigned 16-team leagues, Louisville and Havana work just fine, and that’s sufficient for explaining purposes.

So how would the seasons and the playoffs work?

Each team would play 22 games vs its three divisional opponents (66 games), another 16 games against four conference opponents (64 games); and two home-and-home 2-games series (i.e. four games) against its eight opponents in the other conference (32 games), which comes to—ta-da!-- 162 games.

The most interesting wrinkle here, to me, involves the playoffs. I want to make each division truly worth winning, so obviously each of the eight divisional winners makes the playoffs.

But not equally. I would retain the Wild Card, both of them in fact, in each league, making a playoff system that begins with six qualifying teams in league, the four divisional champs and the two Wild Card teams, but only the three divisional winners with the best records get a bye in the first rounds. The weakest divisional winner must play an extra game in the Wild Card round to qualify. This means a fierce competition during the regular season, compelling each team not only to win its division (with which it might be running away by early September) but also to win it decisively, in order to avoid having the weakest record of the four divisional champs and thus having to play the extra elimination game.

This is probably best illustrated with some hypothetical examples. Take the Eastern of the two leagues, and let’s make up some final Won-Lost records for each team, capitalizing the names of all the teams making the post-season:

 

RED SOX                  101-61

YANKEES                   90-72

Mets                          75-87

Phillies                       60-102

PITTSBURGH          91-71

Cleveland               88-74

Toronto                  80-82

Detroit                    78-84

WASHINGTON          90-72

BALTIMORE               89-73

Reds                            69-93

Louisville                    65-97

RAYS                        89-73

Atlanta                    81-81

Marlins                    75-87

Havana                    71-91

                   

 

 

So the Sox, the Pirates and the Nats all get a bye in the first round of the playoffs, which is a grueling round of do-or-die one-game eliminations. In the first round of the playoffs, the two Wild Card teams play, in this case the Yankees (90-72) vs. the Orioles (89-73), at Yankee Stadium (because the Yankees have the better record).  Note the Yankees, though blown out of their own division, still have to play their hardest for the final weeks of the season to gain this not-inconsiderable advantage, which is one of the virtues of the Wild Card system, making coasting rarely to your advantage.  The Yankees benefit from having a one-game edge over the Orioles, but the Orioles very likely have had to try to win their last few games even more than the Yankees did, because they had a real shot at their division. Now, instead of sitting pretty and waiting for the Wild Card round to be over, as the Nats are doing, the O’s go straight from playing tough games to a one-game elimination round on the road.  Immediately. As in "the day following the last day of the season." That’s very tough.

You may be curious, in the above scenario, about what would have happened if the Indians had won one more game, tying the Orioles’ record.  Or if several teams finished in a tie for the final Wild Card spot. Wouldn’t we need several confusing scenarios of round robin games, taking a few days?

No.

I would set up a system of tie-breakers before the season starts to settle ties.  This "Tie System" (abbreviated T.S., which is what I’d say to teams complaining about this arbitrary-seeming way of settling ties) might be the Pythagorean W-L record of each team, which would be fair in that it incentivizes teams in the regular season not only to win games but to win them decisively. Or maybe just the largest difference between the tying teams’ Runs Scored vs. Runs Allowed. Or if we need further levels of tie-breakers, as theoretically we would, just think of ways we want to improve the game anyway.  For example, do you want quicker games?  Then we could let the teams know at the beginning of the year that ties are going to be settled in favor of the team with the fewest total minutes of play. Or maybe it’s more important that we eliminate throwovers to first base? So we announce that the tie-breaker is going to be fewest throwovers. Or maybe we want to eliminate all these one-pitcher appearances to gain dubious platoon advantages: we make a tie-breaker out of the fewest pitcher appearances in the season. The point is, we incentivize changes in the game by making them into tie-breakers. They’re probably not going to be used, so managers can choose to ignore them, but you’re giving each manager an incentive to change the way he plays the game more along the lines we wish to encourage.

The beauty part of all this seeming arbitrariness is saying "T.S." to complainers. You don’t like this stuff being decided by such small, petty things? T.S., win your friggin’ division, and you don’t have to bother with this stuff. I can imagine a Wild Card round that’s  even more grueling, specifically to give teams real incentives to avoid the Wild Card round altogether.

So the day after the season ends, the Yankees play the O’s in Yankee Stadium in Wild Card Round One. Let’s say the Yankees win the game. They must fly down to Tampa to play the Rays, who finished "last" among the four division-winners, in another elimination game. Again, the Rays have several advantages, all of which they’ve earned by winning their division—the Rays get to play at home, the Rays get a little rest (the day off while the Yankees play the O’s), and all that goes with that day off: time to strategize, a more rested pitching staff, recovery time, etc.

Of course, the Rays would prefer not to have to play this game at all, having won their division, but—T.S. You want to avoid this game, you’d better win enough games to finish in the top three.

Let’s stipulate that the Yankees win this elimination game as well. (If you care, I despise the Yankees, but I don’t see any harm in giving them imaginary victories.) So after playing down to the wire to clinch their Wild Card, then playing the O’s the day after the season ends, winning and then flying immediately down to Tampa Bay to beat the Rays in a second one-game elimination, they then have to fly up to Boston for their third straight game (at least), this time a road game against the Sox who have had two straight off-days following the regular season, and by dint of their winning the league championship, have been resting their players pretty comfortably for about a week or more. To beat the Sox, they’d have to win a seven-game series, four of which will be played in Fenway, with the back of their rotation, probably, pitching most of the games facing the Sox’ front-line pitching, with their closer very likely worn out, and with their entire team gassed. Good luck with that.

Meanwhile, the equally well-rested Pirates and Nats face off in Pittsburgh for a seven-game series. Unlike the Sox-Yankees, this is a pretty even match: both teams are equally rested, and have a roughly equal chance to set up their rotations and lineups the way they want them.  The winner of the Pittsburgh-Washington series faces the winner of the Sox-Yankees.

Most likely, that winner will be the Sox, given all the advantages they’ve earned coming in to the series, and most years the Sox will be able to able to polish off the Yankees handily, leaving them somewhat better prepared to face the Nats-Pirates winner. Not always, but a team that finishes first in its division and first in the league does have a large advantage over the next-best division winners.

Again, let me stress how unlikely it is that the Wild Card team will make it through this daunting gauntlet alive: a team like the Orioles in this scenario has to beat out the other competitors for the last Wild Card slot, then beat the other Wild Card team on the road, then beat the fourth-best division champion again on the road the next day, and then beat the strongest team in the league in a seven-game series, just for the chance to play in the World Series. 

In other words, they’ll need to go at least 10-6, while playing no more than six home games out of sixteen, against four of the best teams in their league. If they can do that, they deserve the chance to play in the World Series, in my view. That’s a very good performance. I can’t imagine a Wild Card team will make to the Series very often. That’s fair, and it’s fair that their fans should be able for root for them to triumph over these long odds.

The Sox, in my example, have it pretty cushy: they have only to beat an exhausted, weaker opponent while playing 4 of 7 games in Fenway, and then beat one other team, also 4 out of 7 games in Fenway. But they’ve earned that cushy schedule, by finishing with the best record in their league.

This isn’t so different, of course, from the way we do the Wild Card and Division Winners right now—the biggest change I’m proposing is to have most of the regular-season competition take place between geographically proximate teams, and the next biggest is to maximize the advantages of finishing first, not only in each division, but in each league. I’d be interested in hearing any further ways you could suggest the strong division-winners be advantaged over the Wild Card teams. I believe in giving these weaker teams a chance, but I want that chance to be slim enough to motivate each team to play its best ball and gain the most advantage in the post-season.

 
 

COMMENTS (20 Comments, most recent shown first)

steve161
Mike, I've only been to Berlin (Germany's only true metropolis) three times: 1975, 1993, 2013. It was a very different city each time, first divided, then recently reunited, now showing signs of the earlier division only if you look closely. I understand there's a vibrant youth scene, which will doubtless appeal to your granddaughter more than what I would recommend: the Philharmonic, one of the world's two or three greatest orchestras; an outstanding array of museums (my favorite, perhaps: the Pergamon, specializing in antiquity); the usual collection of tourist attractions (see any guide book). The Berliner themselves are worth getting to know: they have a puckish sense of humor that is distinctive, like nothing else in Germany. There are still a few people alive who were children during the Airlift and they have fascinating stories to tell. When your granddaughter gets back, let me know what her experience was like.
8:30 AM Sep 26th
 
mauimike
She's in Berlin.
3:31 AM Sep 26th
 
mauimike
When I wrote that story, I wasn't thinking about Germans and Oktoberfest. By the way Steve, grand daughter #2 is in Germany doing a semester there, any recommendations, not that she would listen to what you had to say.

I was thinking more along the lines of Charles Lindbergh, who said, "Real freedom lies in wildness, not civilization."

He's buried outside of Hana, Maui. I visit his grave often. One of my hero's.

Let's not talk about his other families.
3:22 AM Sep 26th
 
steve161
The French are well-known for slipping behind a convenient tree to piss. Here in Munich at this time of year (Oktoberfest, which as usual I'm working hard to avoid) open-air pissing is common, not to say desperately essential. Fortunately the stench dissipates after twenty meters or so.
9:19 AM Sep 23rd
 
flyingfish
nettles9: There really isn't a totally satisfactory or fair solution. To even approach fairness in your rankings of the 8 "best" teams, you'd need each team to play every other team the same number of times. But even that is impossible, because the Phillies can't play the Phillies and the Cardinals don't have to play the Cardinals (to make an example of the worst team and the best team so far this year). So if everything else were equal, the Cardinals would have an easier schedule than the Phillies. But if you even tried to approach this fairness, you'd ruin divisional and proximity-based rivalries. Those Cardinals would be playing San Diego as often as Cincinnati (to say nothing of each of 2 Chicago teams); the same would be true of the Giants and Dodgers, Red Sox and Yankees, and so on.

I confess that I'm not seeing a big problem with the way things are right now. I think it ain't broke, and I'm not eager, therefore, to fix it.
3:10 PM Sep 22nd
 
mauimike
We couldn't afford Keds. I thought I knew how to pee properly by the time I was 8. Then my grandfather came to visit. He wanted my Dad to move back to Maui. I spent a lot of time with him and one day, I told him I needed to pee and wanted to go inside the house. He said, "No need." He walked to the fence, pulled out his dick, and said, "Try, it's better outside." I did, he was right. Life is always better when you can pee outside.

I wouldn't use the ejector seat, Professor, I just suggested that your brother should get one, just in case.

These ideas ain't bad, food for thought.

Think for yourself. Question authority.

That's why you get paid the big bucks.
2:04 AM Sep 22nd
 
bearbyz
This is the best idea I have seen yet. It is one of the few ways I would like a wildcard race. I also like the fact you are close to your rivals.
6:35 AM Sep 21st
 
steve161
New Yorkers are famous for their skewed notions of US geography--see the classic cover of the eponymous magazine.

Does it not bother anybody else that none of the classic rivals (NYA-Bos, CHN-StL, LAN-SFG) share a division?
7:03 PM Sep 20th
 
stevemillburg
Cubs and Cardinals in different divisions??? You obviously don't live in the Midwest.
5:18 PM Sep 20th
 
nettles9
Well, I can cross this off my bucket list... "Spurred article on Bill James site". By the way, it's ok to doubt me-- I do it all the time. Again and again and again.

Any whom, I read this and then read the comments. What made me start the thread that I did was based on the rivulets and dust clouds piling of fans stating such-and-such team has been ripped-off because they play in a stronger division than another team (you know who and what teams you are). So, almost anything one could formulate or suggest will stir these fans to click and type and lambast and cry and comment and whatever.

There is only on solution that is truly, virtually fair...

Eliminate the AL and NL.

No expansion needed. No crazy scenarios or modifiers or schemes to concoct to try to cover gaps in the pseudo-logic being proffered. 30 teams, eight playoff spots, eight best record to occupy those spots. If we all agree that each season will determine the best and worst teams in a season, then the best eight teams will be sufficient for a playoff. One versus eight, two versus seven, three versus six, for versus five-- that's the playoff seedings. This will, hopefully, quiet down all those that need every single thing to be fair to their team.

If not, then T.S. can be deployed without changing a darn thing. The Pirates, with a better record, need a one-game playoff while the Mets can waltzing Matilda right into the playoffs? T.S.!

Doubtfully yours,

Ralph C. aka nettles9



10:52 AM Sep 20th
 
doncoffin
Highways. Typing late at night can be problematic.
8:48 AM Sep 20th
 
tkoegel
doncoffin, I am puzzled by what the "better highs at" Indianapolis are? Did the Hoosier state legalize pot? ;-)
7:55 AM Sep 20th
 
bewareofdow
"too far'
6:21 AM Sep 20th
 
bewareofdow
Sharing a division with a dominant team is even more problematic. The Pirates currently hold the second best record in baseball, but had the poor judgement to start a franchise in the 19th century in a city a little to far from the Atlantic Ocean, so share a division with the Cardinals, who hold the best record in baseball. This would destine the Pirates for the third straight year of (if they stay alive) home Wildcard, road Wildcard and NLDS Game 1 on consecutive days.
6:20 AM Sep 20th
 
thegue
We're assuming, of course, that all 4 teams are worthy of the playoffs. Feel free to check a few years of the AL West/NL West, when a few playoff teams made the playoffs over more qualified teams just by being in a crap division.

I can promise you, this would occur more often in this scenario.​
5:12 AM Sep 20th
 
doncoffin
Indianapolis, not Louisville. It's a larger metro area and at the AAA level outdraws Louisville. Also better highs at and airport connections. Also, I live in Indy.
1:06 AM Sep 20th
 
TudorFever
One huge problem with this system is that it would overly reward whichever team is lucky enough to have one or two terrible teams in its division.
9:13 PM Sep 19th
 
flyingfish
Steven, if you were alive before expansion, then before this happens, you're going to have to once again spend time "learning how to pee properly and how to tie [your] Keds." It doesn't get easier, unfortunately. :(

By the way, Denver is one small sliver of a state (Oklahoma) away from Texas and if you count the Four Corners, then it's in a state that's adjacent to Arizona. So it's not "several states away from anywhere," although it's a long drive. So is Seattle. In fact, Seattle is farther from the nearest other MLB team (Oakland, 801 miles) than Denver is to TWO other teams (KC, 604 miles and Rangers, 782 miles).
8:34 PM Sep 19th
 
Gfletch
I’d be okay with this system, but I wonder about the assumption that we all want the best teams to have everything tilted in their favour vs their playoff opponents. If they’re so great, let them play the games on the level. When I see a game, I want to see a fair contest, y’know? Unfair circumstances come up naturally, anyway, without deliberately planning for them.
7:25 PM Sep 19th
 
OldBackstop
A division winner has to get a few playoff games guaranteed. And the tiebreaker being on throwovers during the year? C'mon, no smoking dope in the house.


5:17 PM Sep 19th
 
 
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