One of the ideas for an article that I’ve been toying with is to outline all of the things that make baseball different from other sports. Obviously, each sport is unique, but baseball has so many things that distinguishes it from most other team sports. The most iconic work on this has to be George Carlin’s classic Football vs. Baseball routine. I can’t improve on that (no one can).
Anyway, this isn’t that article….. maybe I’ll still write that someday. But one of the things inherent in baseball that I find very appealing is that there is no clock. Rather than minutes and seconds guiding the game, baseball uses innings and outs. In basketball, if you’re down by 10 points with 1 second to go, the game is over. It’s impossible to close that gap. Same thing in football or hockey….there are deficits that, based on the score and the time remaining, are literally impossible to overcome, because time won’t allow it.
However, in baseball, as long as a team avoids getting that 3rd out, it gets to keep batting. In baseball, there’s always a chance. A team could be down by 10 runs with two outs in the ninth inning, and it still has a chance. Not a good one, of course….but a chance. Just avoid making that last out, and you can keep trying. As the great philosopher Yogi Berra said…."It ain’t over ‘til it’s over" (he was talking about pennant races, but it applies here as well).
Lately I’ve been messing around in what I call the Seamheads.com sandbox. I love wallowing on that site…they have so many handy tools that are fun to just play around with and see what kind of results you get.
Today, I’m looking at postseason results…..in particular, some of the greatest series comebacks ever. I’ll cover those in part 1, and then take a look in a few days at some of the most pivotal plays in part 2, and then some individual postseason player results later on in part 3. The articles will lean heavily (but not exclusively) on Win Probability Added (WPA) and other similar calculations that, based on historical evidence, arrive at probabilities of outcomes and the impact that players and events had on "flipping the odds" from defeat to victory.
Now, I’m not going to get into a primer of WPA and these other tools. If you’re not familiar with them, there are plenty of resources on the Internet that can explain them better than I can. In short, WPA captures the change in win expectancy from one play to another based on how much that play affects the team’s probability of winning based on historical outcomes of similar game states. But, I think some things about these types of win expectancy metrics are important to remember as we review:
- These metrics are generally not predictive.
They really don’t tell us much about the inherent skill of a player. When a player generates a game-pivoting event, it doesn’t necessarily reveal intestinal fortitude or great clutch ability. These metrics describe what happened….not what is likely to repeat. But, as Bill James said recently in response to a "Hey Bill" question, "Not everything is intended to predict." Sometimes, we just want to take a look at what actually happened.
- These metrics tell the story of a game or a series
WPA and similar metrics reveal a lot about context. A two-run home run in the 9th inning when your team is trailing by a run may count the same in the statistics on your baseball card as a two-run home run in the 2nd inning of a blowout. However, in the context of a specific game, the former has much greater impact on the probability of winning the game (or an entire series) than the latter does. The game situation, the series situation…..it all matters. These metrics are useful for storytelling, for capturing what happened, and how important events were in context of the games being played.
- These metrics can isolate key events
WPA and other similar metrics help identify key shifts or turning points in a game or a series.
OK….onto the results. What do probabilities and win expectancies tell us about some of the greatest postseason comebacks in history?
The Greatest Postseason Comebacks (in a series or single-game round)
The metric used here is called "Comeback" on Seamheads.com. It captures the losing team’s highest win probability during the series in question. For example, a figure of 97% means that, at some point in the series, the team that eventually lost had a 97% probability of winning the series (implying the winning team only had a 3% probability at that point in time).
Rank
|
Year
|
Series
|
Winner
|
Result
|
Loser
|
Comeback
|
1
|
1986
|
World Series
|
New York Mets
|
4-3
|
Boston Red Sox
|
99.4%
|
2
|
1986
|
ALCS
|
Boston Red Sox
|
4-3
|
California Angels
|
99.2%
|
3
|
2015
|
ALDS
|
Kansas City Royals
|
3-2
|
Houston Astros
|
99.1%
|
4
|
2002
|
World Series
|
Anaheim Angels
|
4-3
|
San Francisco Giants
|
98.4%
|
5
|
2004
|
ALCS
|
Boston Red Sox
|
4-3
|
New York Yankees
|
98.2%
|
6
|
2011
|
World Series
|
St. Louis Cardinals
|
4-3
|
Texas Rangers
|
97.9%
|
7
|
2003
|
NLCS
|
Florida Marlins
|
4-3
|
Chicago Cubs
|
97.8%
|
8
|
1968
|
World Series
|
Detroit Tigers
|
4-3
|
St. Louis Cardinals
|
97.3%
|
9
|
2014
|
ALWC
|
Kansas City Royals
|
1-0
|
Oakland Athletics
|
96.7%
|
10
|
1980
|
NLCS
|
Philadelphia Phillies
|
3-2
|
Houston Astros
|
96.3%
|
A lot of these are ones you would certainly expect to appear. Quick note – the Bobby Thomson/Ralph Branca "Shot Heard ‘Round the World" game was not listed on the web site under this section, I suspect because it’s not classified there as "postseason". However, in locating the game on baseball-reference.com, it looks like, at the end of 8 innings, Brooklyn had a 97% chance of winning. So, if you want to include it, it would be included in the top 10 by this measure. Of course, as much as Thomson’s blast was memorable all by itself, it was made even more so by the fact that it was the culmination of the Giants having come back from 13 games behind the Dodgers as late as mid-August. Those two things combine to make it such a remarkable and memorable achievement.
The #1 reversal of fortune is the 1986 Mets/Red Sox World Series. As I’m sure you recall, the Red Sox were up 3 games to 2, and had taken a 5-3 lead in the top of the 10th of game 6, and the first two Mets hitters were retired in the bottom of the 10th. The Mets were down 2 runs, down 3 games to 2, and down to their last out in the series. The probabilities state that, at that point in time, Boston had a 99.4% probability of winning the series. Keith Hernandez reportedly went into the clubhouse and undressed, and the scoreboard briefly flashed "Congratulations Boston Red Sox, 1986 World Champions". I was watching that game. It certainly seemed over.
Then….Carter single. Mitchell single. Knight single. Wild pitch. Dribbler to Buckner. On to game 7.
Interestingly enough, this comeback was only slightly more improbable than the one that happened in the round just prior to this, where the Red Sox pulled off their own unbelievable comeback against the Angels, having come back from being down 3 games to 1, and down 5-2 in the top of the 9th, with the highlight being Dave Henderson’s 2-out, 2-run HR to take the lead.
So, 1986 saw, by this measure, the 2 greatest postseason comebacks ever. Quite a year.
Other notes:
The #3 comeback hasn’t had enough time, I don’t think, to work itself into baseball lore yet, as it only happened 2 seasons ago. The best-of-five 2015 ALDS between the Astros and the Royals had Houston up 2 games to 1, and up 6-2 heading into the 8th inning of game 4, with the Astros having just tallied 3 runs in the bottom of the 7th to seemingly put the game (and the series) out of reach. The Royals then put together an unbelievable 5-run 8th inning, plus 2 more in the 9th, to shock the Astros, forcing a game 5 that KC won handily on the way to eventually winning the championship.
The #4 comeback is the 2002 World Series between the Angels and the Giants. San Francisco looked to have this locked up with a 3 games to 2 lead and a 5-0 lead heading into the bottom of the 7th of game 6. However, the bullpen couldn’t hold off the Angels who tallied 3 runs in the 7th and 3 more in the 8th to force game 7 and eventually win the title.
The #5 comeback is the 2004 ALCS where the Red Sox were able to come back from a 3 games to none deficit over the Yankees. I think many would consider that the greatest series comeback ever. The math only slightly disagrees.
As a quick aside, I do think it’s an interesting comparison between the Red Sox overcoming a 3-0 deficit (98.2%) and the Mets overcoming a 3-2 deficit in games and being down 2 runs and down to their last out in game 6 (99.4%). They’re both extremely unlikely comebacks, of course, but the Mets’ situation is empirically a little tougher to come back from. I’m not sure that everyone would have guessed that. I think part of that is psychological. Perhaps it’s splitting hairs, but I think, for many, the thought of overcoming a 3 games to 0 deficit seems so much more daunting and improbable than coming back from 2 runs down, even if you’re down to your last out. The probabilities ever so slightly tilt towards the latter being a little more unlikely.
#6 is the 2011 World Series between the Cardinals and Rangers, which earned the right to be an "instant classic". I watched in amazement as that unfolded before my eyes. So many unbelievable moments. As is often the case in these rankings, game 6 was the one with all the fireworks, the one that catapulted David Freese into his place in St. Louis lore. The Rangers led 7-5 in the 7th inning, and 9-7 in the 10th, and twice they had the Cardinals down to their final out, but they couldn’t put the game away.
The #7 comeback is the 2003 NLCS between the Marlins and the Cubs, highlighted by the "Bartman" incident in game 6. Enough said.
The #8 comeback is the first series I ever remember hearing about, the 1968 clash between Detroit and St. Louis. The Cardinals were up 3 games to 1 and jumped out to a 3-0 lead in game 5. In addition, they also had their ace-in-the-hole, Bob Gibson (who was looking quite unhittable), lurking in the background if needed. However, the Tigers fought back, forced a game 7, and were able to complete the comeback.
The #9 comeback is a bit of an oddball in that it was just a one-game, winner-take-all wild card, the 2014 contest between the Royals and the A’s. Oakland was up 7-3 heading into the 8th inning, but the Royals kept pecking away, tallying 3 in the 8th and then 1 more in the 9th to force extra innings. The A’s took the lead in the top of the 12th, but the Royals countered with 2 more in the bottom of the inning to take the game and advance to the next round.
The #10 comeback is the 1980 NCLS between Philadelphia and Houston, which I think has kind of gotten overlooked in the passage of time. This was a classic. Houston was up 2 games to 1, and had a 2-0 lead heading into the top of the 8th inning in game 4, and a 4-2 lead heading into the top of the 8th inning of game 5. In both games, however, the Phillies mounted comebacks, on the road, in the top of the 8th inning, scoring 3 runs in game 4 and 5 runs in game 5 to take the lead in both of those games, only to have Houston come back and force extra innings. 4 of the 5 games in this series went extra innings. A great, classic, and underrated series.
Others that just missed (but were still well over 90%):
2012 NLDS – Cardinals over Nationals 3-2 (Cardinals come back from 6-0 and 7-5 deficits in game 5 by scoring 4 in the 9th inning)
1995 ALDS – Mariners over Yankees 3-2 (Joey Cora and Ken Griffey Jr. score on Edgar Martinez double)
1960 World Series – Pirates over Yankees 4-3 (Hal Smith and Bill Mazeroski HR’s)
2003 ALCS – Yankees over Red Sox 4-3 (Aaron Boone HR)
1992 NLCS – Braves over Pirates 4-3 (Francisco Cabrera hit)
By the way, last year’s World Series ranked 18th with a 92.3% figure, as the Indians were up 3 games to 1 and (briefly) had the lead in game 5 before the series started to turn towards the Cubs.
In the Part 2, we’ll look at isolating some of the top, pivotal, game-changing postseason plays.
Thanks for reading.
Dan