The newest version of Billy Hamilton made his major league debut today, immediately clinching the 2013 Award for ‘Best Debut That Exactly Reflects What That Player is All About.’ Entering a scoreless game to pinch-run in the bottom of the seventh, Hamilton stole second on the first pitch. He was so ahead of Yadier Molina’s throw that he slid in feet-first. He then scored the only run of the game on a Todd Frazier double. BH2 was, for one afternoon, exactly who we all thought he’d be.
I was really excited to see Hamilton. I started paying attention to baseball in 1988, a year that marks the end of the century’s high-water mark for epic base stealing seasons. I’ll try to illustrate what I mean with a table: here are the sixty-six players who have collected 80+ stolen bases in a single season:
Rank
|
Name
|
Year
|
Steals
|
1
|
--
|
1887
|
138
|
2
|
Rickey!
|
1982
|
130
|
3
|
--
|
1887
|
129
|
4
|
Lou Brock
|
1974
|
118
|
5
|
--
|
1887
|
117
|
6
|
--
|
1889
|
111
|
6
|
--
|
1891
|
111
|
6
|
--
|
1887
|
111
|
9
|
Vince!
|
1985
|
110
|
10
|
Vince!
|
1987
|
109
|
10
|
--
|
1888
|
109
|
12
|
Rickey!
|
1983
|
108
|
13
|
Vince!
|
1986
|
107
|
14
|
--
|
1891
|
106
|
15
|
Maury Wills
|
1962
|
104
|
16
|
--
|
1887
|
103
|
16
|
--
|
1888
|
103
|
18
|
--
|
1887
|
102
|
18
|
--
|
1890
|
102
|
20
|
--
|
1894
|
100
|
20
|
Rickey!
|
1980
|
100
|
22
|
--
|
1889
|
99
|
23
|
--
|
1895
|
97
|
23
|
Ron LeFlore
|
1980
|
97
|
23
|
--
|
1890
|
97
|
26
|
--
|
1915
|
96
|
26
|
Omar Moreno
|
1980
|
96
|
28
|
--
|
1887
|
95
|
28
|
--
|
1888
|
95
|
30
|
--
|
1887
|
94
|
30
|
Maury Wills
|
1965
|
94
|
32
|
Rickey!
|
1988
|
93
|
32
|
--
|
1888
|
93
|
34
|
--
|
1889
|
91
|
35
|
Tim Raines
|
1983
|
90
|
36
|
--
|
1889
|
89
|
36
|
--
|
1887
|
89
|
38
|
--
|
1912
|
88
|
38
|
--
|
1887
|
88
|
38
|
--
|
1887
|
88
|
38
|
--
|
1892
|
88
|
42
|
Rickey!
|
1986
|
87
|
42
|
--
|
1896
|
87
|
42
|
--
|
1891
|
87
|
42
|
--
|
1888
|
87
|
46
|
--
|
1887
|
86
|
47
|
--
|
1890
|
85
|
47
|
--
|
1891
|
85
|
47
|
--
|
1887
|
85
|
50
|
--
|
1887
|
84
|
50
|
--
|
1896
|
84
|
50
|
--
|
1887
|
84
|
50
|
--
|
1890
|
84
|
54
|
--
|
1911
|
83
|
54
|
--
|
1896
|
83
|
54
|
--
|
1890
|
83
|
54
|
Willie Wilson
|
1979
|
83
|
58
|
--
|
1888
|
82
|
58
|
--
|
1888
|
82
|
60
|
1911
|
81
|
60
|
Vince!
|
1988
|
81
|
60
|
--
|
1910
|
81
|
63
|
Eric Davis
|
1986
|
80
|
63
|
Rickey!
|
1985
|
80
|
63
|
--
|
1889
|
80
|
63
|
--
|
1888
|
80
|
Here’s the trick part: I’ve only included the names of players you might have actually seen play. The least-recent player whose name appears on this list is Maury Willis, who cracked the 80-barrier in 1962 and 1965. The last player before Willis to crack 80+ was Ty Cobb, way back in 1915. If you saw Cobb in 1915, you should absolutely get a free subscription to this website.
So all those blank spots are players from 1915 or earlier. In fact, we can condense the periods of really big stolen base stealers into three distinct eras:
Era 1: The Villainous Motley-Minded Clotpole Years - (18-- - 1915)
This is basically baseball from the time of its conception, until the time that Babe Ruth ruined baseball by making it insanely popular. And yes, I used an old-timey insult generator to come up with that title. Call me a fobbing sheep-bitter, if you must.
Era 2: The ‘That Stolen Base Record Sure Looks Beatable’ Years - (1962-1974)
For which we have exactly two representatives:
Name
|
Year
|
Steals
|
Maury Wills
|
1962
|
104
|
Maury Wills
|
1965
|
94
|
Lou Brock
|
1974
|
118
|
And finally:
Era 3: The ‘This Had Nothing to Do With Cocaine. Nothing! What’s That NOISE?!’ Years - (1979-1988)
It was the best of times:
Name
|
Year
|
Steals
|
Name
|
Year
|
Steals
|
Willie Wilson
|
1979
|
83
|
Rickey!
|
1985
|
80
|
Rickey!
|
1980
|
100
|
Vince!
|
1986
|
107
|
Ron LeFlore
|
1980
|
97
|
Rickey!
|
1986
|
87
|
Omar Moreno
|
1980
|
96
|
Eric Davis
|
1986
|
80
|
Rickey!
|
1982
|
130
|
Vince!
|
1987
|
109
|
Rickey!
|
1983
|
108
|
Rickey!
|
1988
|
93
|
Tim Raines
|
1983
|
90
|
Vince!
|
1988
|
81
|
Vince!
|
1985
|
110
|
|
|
|
This last group is dominated by two players, Rickey and Vince Coleman. I was a month old when Henderson reached the majors, so I don’t have any first-hand memories about what people thought about him. I remember Coleman, who was coming off his third straight ‘century’ in 1987. It’s fitting that Coleman and Rickey close out the list: no one has stolen 80 or more bases since they both crossed the line in 1988.
I watched a little baseball in 1988, but I wouldn’t say that I watched too many Cardinals or Yankees games that year. I must’ve seen Rickey a few times on TV38, but I don’t have a distinct memory of Henderson in a Yankee uniform. I didn’t really tune in to the Rickey show until his second tour with Oakland.
This is to say I’ve never actually witnessed an 80-steal season, never mind a 100-steal season. So Billy Hamilton represents the great, fast hope for me: the first player who has a very good chance to put up an insane number of stolen bases.
* * *
So what kind of player is Hamilton going to be? How does he compare with the other players listed?
It is no use comparing Billy Hamilton to the likes of Hugh Nicol, Arlie Latham, and Jim Fogarty. It’s probably not worth it to compare him to Billy Hamilton version 1.0, a man who posted a career on-base percentage of .455. One hundred and ten years separate the careers of the two Billy Hamilton’s…that’s a gap too wide to cross.
There are no useful comparables from the second era, either. Maury Willis didn’t reach the majors until he was twenty-seven: Billy Hamilton will turn twenty-three this week. And although Lou Brock’s minor league record isn’t full, it shows that the young Brock had decent power: 14 HR and a .535 slugging percentage, to go along with a .361 BA for the Saint Cloud Rox. Billy Hamilton hasn’t shown that kind of power in the minors.
From the contemporary files, Rickey and Tim Raines don’t make for good matches: both players reached the majors at twenty-one, after tearing up Triple-A as twenty-year olds:
Name
|
Year
|
Age
|
G
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
SB
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
Rickey
|
1979
|
20
|
71
|
80
|
11
|
8
|
3
|
44
|
.309
|
.430
|
.448
|
Raines
|
1980
|
20
|
108
|
152
|
23
|
11
|
6
|
77
|
.354
|
.439
|
.501
|
Raines was playing in Denver, which explains the edge he has on homeruns. Both were exceptional players in Triple-A, something Billy Hamilton hasn’t been: Hamilton finished the year with a .256/.308/.356 batting line in Louisville. And both were younger players: Hamilton isn’t in their league.
Eric Davis, the great ‘what-if’ precursor to Grady Sizemore, had too much power in the minors to be a reasonable comparable to Hamilton.
Ron LeFlore is exempt on the same age issue that exempted Maury Wills: he started in the minors at twenty-five, though his skill sets and minor league numbers do correspond closely with Hamilton’s. LeFlore has had a life that seems deserving of that cliché ‘it could only happen in America.’ For those who have missed the story, the broad-strokes: LeFlore grew up in a bad neighborhood in Detroit, getting into drugs and crime at an early age. He was in prison just about as soon as he was eligible, where news of his play on the baseball team reached Billy Martin, then managing the Tigers. Martin arranged a try-out: LeFlore was paroled and in the majors a few years later. He was a good player who got better as he played: if he had gotten an earlier start he might’ve won a batting title or two.
So that leaves us with three players: Omar Moreno, Willie Wilson, and Vince Coleman. How do they compare to Billy Hamilton?
As it turns out, the four are very comparable. Checking in on their minor league numbers, year-by-year:
Name
|
Year
|
Age
|
Lg
|
G
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
SB
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
Billy H.
|
2011
|
20
|
A
|
135
|
153
|
18
|
9
|
3
|
103
|
.278
|
.340
|
.360
|
Vince C.
|
1982
|
20
|
Rk
|
58
|
53
|
2
|
1
|
0
|
43
|
.250
|
.348
|
.269
|
Willie W.
|
1975
|
19
|
A
|
127
|
132
|
18
|
4
|
8
|
76
|
.272
|
.323
|
.374
|
Omar M.
|
1973
|
20
|
A, AAA
|
139
|
154
|
22
|
9
|
10
|
78
|
.285
|
.383
|
.414
|
All four showed impressive speed in their first go-around in the minors, though there are a few slight differences. Vince Coleman didn’t show any kind of pop during that first stint, posting a slugging percentage almost 100 points below his on-base percentage. Omar Moreno appears as the ‘real’ hitter in the group, which explains his jump to Triple-A ball.
Hamilton, at this point, seems closest to Willie Wilson, who was blazingly fast. I don’t have any idea how many of Wilson’s eight HR’s were inside-the-park jobs.
Going ahead another year:
Name
|
Year
|
Age
|
Lg
|
G
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
SB
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
Billy H.
|
2012
|
21
|
A+, AA
|
132
|
159
|
22
|
14
|
2
|
155
|
.311
|
.410
|
.420
|
Vince C.
|
1983
|
21
|
A
|
113
|
156
|
8
|
7
|
0
|
145
|
.350
|
.431
|
.399
|
Willie W.
|
1976
|
20
|
AA
|
107
|
98
|
13
|
6
|
1
|
37
|
.253
|
.309
|
.325
|
Omar M.
|
1974
|
21
|
AA,AAA
|
135
|
140
|
18
|
6
|
7
|
73
|
.286
|
.394
|
.391
|
This was Billy Hamilton’s breakout season, when he stole 155 bases. It is also the year Vince Coleman broke out, though Vince’s breakout happened in Single-A. Omar Moreno, in a second stint at Triple-A, treaded water, and Vince and Billy have essentially caught up, posting good batting averages, with on-base and slugging percentages being about equal.
Willie drops from the pack here, with a lower on-base percentage than the rest. He didn’t get the memo that you walk to first, and then run to second.
Name
|
Year
|
Age
|
Lg
|
G
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
SB
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
Billy H.
|
2013
|
22
|
AAA
|
123
|
129
|
18
|
4
|
6
|
75
|
.256
|
.308
|
.343
|
Vince C.
|
1984
|
22
|
AAA
|
152
|
156
|
21
|
7
|
4
|
101
|
.257
|
.323
|
.334
|
Willie W.
|
1977
|
21
|
AAA
|
132
|
139
|
10
|
6
|
4
|
74
|
.281
|
.323
|
.349
|
Omar M.
|
1975
|
22
|
AAA
|
130
|
127
|
20
|
2
|
9
|
39
|
.284
|
.357
|
.398
|
All of ‘em have made it to Triple-A, and have essentially evened out as players. Omar Moreno takes back the lead in on-base and slugging percentages, and probably rates, as a prospect, as the best hitter of the bunch. Vince seems the speed-first player: the player focused on getting to first any way possible, so he could steal his way around the bases. Willie sits in the middle: as fast as Coleman and a slightly better hitter than Coleman.
That brings us up to Billy Hamilton’s present. To project his next three years, we can take a look at how Vince, Willie, and Omar during their first years in the major.
Except…things get a little complicated. Vince Coleman was given a starting gig his first year in the majors. Willie Wilson and Omar Moreno had to spend a year as pinch-runners/fourth outfielders before they got full-time work in the majors. This skews the ages a bit: Vince and Willie now show even with Billy Hamilton, while Omar is a year ahead.
Here’s each players’ first full year in the majors:
Name
|
Year
|
Age
|
G
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
SB
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
Vince C.
|
1985
|
23
|
151
|
170
|
20
|
10
|
1
|
110
|
.267
|
.320
|
.335
|
Willie W.
|
1979
|
23
|
154
|
185
|
18
|
13
|
6
|
83
|
.315
|
.351
|
.420
|
Omar M.
|
1977
|
24
|
150
|
118
|
19
|
9
|
7
|
53
|
.240
|
.295
|
.358
|
Of the three, it was Wilson who had the most impressive first year in the majors, posting a solid batting line to go along with 83 stolen bases. Moreno, the best minor league hitter, struggled during his first full-time gig in the majors. Coleman splits the difference between ‘em.
Moving on to Year-2:
Name
|
Year
|
Age
|
G
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
SB
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
Vince
|
1986
|
24
|
154
|
139
|
13
|
8
|
0
|
107
|
.232
|
.301
|
.280
|
Willie
|
1980
|
24
|
161
|
230
|
28
|
15
|
3
|
79
|
.326
|
.357
|
.421
|
Omar
|
1978
|
25
|
155
|
121
|
15
|
7
|
2
|
71
|
.235
|
.339
|
.303
|
One step forward, two steps back. Willie Wilson, the best first-year full-timer, turned in an even better second season, posting a robust .326 batting average to go along with a lead-leading 133 runs scored, 230 hits, and 13 triples. He finished fourth in the AL MVP vote. This was the best season of Wilson’s career.
Vince and Omar each declined in their second year. Vince declined across the board, while Omar traded some of his power for an uptick in on-base percentage.
Onto Year-3:
Name
|
Year
|
Age
|
G
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
SB
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
Vince
|
1987
|
25
|
151
|
180
|
14
|
10
|
3
|
109
|
.289
|
.363
|
.358
|
Willie
|
1981
|
25
|
102
|
133
|
10
|
7
|
1
|
34
|
.303
|
.335
|
.364
|
Omar
|
1979
|
26
|
162
|
196
|
21
|
12
|
8
|
77
|
.282
|
.333
|
.381
|
Vince and Omar bounced back. Actually, both Coleman and Moreno put together the best seasons of their careers here: while both players would remain good players, they never again reached this level of ability again. Omar Moreno would steal 96 bases in 1980, but that masked a poor .301 on-base percentage. Coleman led the NL in steals for the first six years of his career, but he was never a particularly great player. Neither was Omar Moreno.
Willie Wilson was, for four years, a great player. He tallied an impressive 8.5 rWAR in 1980, and had two years over 6.0. He wasn’t quite as great during the strike-shortened 1981 as he was in 1980, but he went on and won the batting title in 1982.
That was Wilson’s last great season….he had other productive years after 1982, but his best years were 1979-1982, when he was 23-26 years old. Like Omar and Vince, Wilson peaked early.
Which, getting back to Billy Hamilton, gives us at one pretty solid prediction about his career: whatever his peak is as a major league player, we’ll probably see it between 2014 and 2017. And the decline from that peak will happen quickly.
Also: he’s going to steal a lot of bases. That’s the other take-away. If you average those nine major league seasons of Moreno, Coleman, and Wilson (and give Wilson a few ticks for the strike year) you get an average of about 82 steals per year. It’s not only possible that Billy Hamilton, given a full year of playing time, will steal 80 bases…it’s likely. It’s very possible he’ll get to 100.
My sense, having watched a few of Billy’s minor league at-bats, is that he’s probably closer to Coleman than to Moreno or Wilson: a true speed guy whose value will depend on his ability to make contact and show discipline at the plate, and play good defense. Willie Wilson was, at least for a few years, a terrific hitter; Moreno showed the potential to be a good hitter. I don’t think Billy Hamilton 2.0 has shown that ability yet. He certainly could, but I’m not holding my breath.
Which is fine. Actually, it’s great: Hamilton is the purest speed-first player since Coleman. To be successful in the major leagues, he has to be really good at the various components that can make use of that speed: getting on base, reading pitchers and catchers and defenses and balls-in-play when on base, and playing defense. Hamilton could do all that and be a 3+ win player for the Reds for a few seasons…that’s extremely valuable, and it’ll be really fun to watch.
And I might get to see my first 100+ stolen base season, which would be fantastic. Here’s my prediction for year one of the Hamilton Era:
Name
|
Year
|
Age
|
G
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
SB
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
Hamilton
|
2014
|
25
|
142
|
144
|
17
|
9
|
4
|
87
|
.267
|
.312
|
.344
|
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.