Re-Thinking The Best Shot Hypothesis
During a Kansas University basketball game, we often hear it said that KU always gets the other team’s best shot, because everybody wants to beat KU. You hear the same thing about the Yankees, the Dodgers, the Red Sox, Celtics, Patriots, Chiefs, Packers, Duke, Carolina, Kentucky. . . any franchise that is perceived as a powerhouse, people will say that. But is it true?
I polled my Twitter audience on the issue. 58% of respondents said they didn’t believe that there was any such effect—an interesting finding, that 58% of people believe that something they have been told hundreds of times by a sports announcer is just complete nonsense. A month ago, I would have voted with the majority, but I’ve changed my mind here.
I had been wavering on the issue, anyway, but what flipped me over was this. I play in a Ballpark League, as you may know; Ballpark is a table baseball game. In our case we play a 42-game imitation of a 162-game schedule. We are playing the 1980 season, and I have an outfielder, Gary Woods, who hits .377—that is, he has a card which should produce a .377 average—but, since he played only 14 games in 1980, plus 5 games pinch hitting, he can play only 4 games, plus 2 games pinch hitting, in our 42-game schedule.
So I was playing the league leading team in the next series, and I pulled Woods—who had not played a game all season—off the inactive roster to play in the next series. Also, I rested my #1 and #2 starters, pulling them out of the previous series, so they could pitch against the league leaders. Not only did I do this, but everyone in the league does it; it’s just routine procedure.
Well, but if I do this, why should I doubt that real teams do similar things?
It is easier to do this in Ballpark than in real life. In real life, you don’t have some player who hits .377 but only plays in a few games, and you can figure out when to stick him into the lineup. In real life, there are consequences to messing with your starting rotation. But that is details; we’re talking principles. If I do these things, to stack the lineup against the best opponent, why should I doubt that real-life teams do the same thing, albeit in different ways?
So I’ve joined the minority here. I think it’s a real effect, at some level, that the perennial champions always get the best shot from everybody they play.