I recently had the following question in "Hey, Bill":
Bill --If you were to take the average player's rookie season (i.e., the season that the player last qualified for ROTY award), how much improvement will there be by that player's peak season? Is it anything like useful to make a remark like, "Player X has 15 WS in his rookie year--we can expect him, on average, to have a peak season at some point of 25 WS"? If one season isn't enough, at what point would we have enough seasons to make a useful general prediction as to eventual peak? After 1500 PA, say?
To which I replied, at the time:
Any answer you could give, I think you'd have to give with numerous qualifications, but let me see what I can do. First, let's exclude pitchers, since a very high percentage of rookie pitchers are unable to sustain the workload, and basically burn out after one season. Second, we'd have to exclude players who get a full shot as a rookie, but don't truly establish the level of ability necessary to keep a job.
From that point on, you'd get very different answers from a 21-year-old rookie than from a 25-year-old rookie. I'll try to do some relevant research and edit this answer later on.
Ok, I have done some research here, so let me report on that. . .I thought the question was worthy of a little work. I have a spreadsheet of career records. ..a kind of a "spreadsheet encyclopedia" that I use for projects like this. I took that file, and eliminated from it:
1) All players who played before 1950 (even one game before 1950), and
2) Players who have played since 2011 (2011, 2012 or 2013), since those player may not yet have complete careers.
3) All players who played less than 800 games in their careers.
This third elimination creates a major selection bias in the data, which makes these players who are studied here quite different from all rookies, and limits our ability to generalize what we learn from doing this. (On the other hand, not restricting the study group would cause other problems which, in my judgment, would be much worse, so. . ..six of one, half-dozen of the other. Doing the study this way, you learn quite a bit but you can’t generalize it reliably because of the selection bias. Doing the study the other way you wouldn’t learn anything to begin with.)
Anyway, I limited the data to players who played 800 games, so. . Al Weis is in, Rick Leach is out. You have to draw a line somewhere. To illustrate what I have done, let’s take all players who were rookies at the age of 18.
Since 1950 there have been three players who played 800 games and whose last rookie season was at age 18: Wayne Causey (1955), Ed Kranepool (1963) and Robin Yount (1974). This is what those three players did in their first seasons:
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
SB
|
CS
|
Avg
|
OBA
|
SPct
|
OPS
|
Wayne
|
Causey
|
1955
|
68
|
175
|
14
|
34
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
9
|
17
|
25
|
0
|
1
|
.194
|
.269
|
.234
|
.504
|
Ed
|
Kranepool
|
1963
|
86
|
273
|
22
|
57
|
12
|
2
|
2
|
14
|
18
|
50
|
4
|
2
|
.209
|
.256
|
.289
|
.545
|
Robin
|
Yount
|
1974
|
107
|
344
|
48
|
86
|
14
|
5
|
3
|
26
|
12
|
46
|
7
|
7
|
.250
|
.273
|
.346
|
.619
|
And here is that with the average performance of the three:
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
SB
|
CS
|
Avg
|
OBA
|
SPct
|
OPS
|
Wayne
|
Causey
|
1955
|
68
|
175
|
14
|
34
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
9
|
17
|
25
|
0
|
1
|
.194
|
.269
|
.234
|
.504
|
Ed
|
Kranepool
|
1963
|
86
|
273
|
22
|
57
|
12
|
2
|
2
|
14
|
18
|
50
|
4
|
2
|
.209
|
.256
|
.289
|
.545
|
Robin
|
Yount
|
1974
|
107
|
344
|
48
|
86
|
14
|
5
|
3
|
26
|
12
|
46
|
7
|
7
|
.250
|
.273
|
.346
|
.619
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1964
|
87
|
264
|
28
|
59
|
9
|
3
|
2
|
16
|
16
|
40
|
4
|
3
|
.223
|
.266
|
.302
|
.568
|
On average, the 18-year-olds hit .223 with a .568 OPS in their rookie season. In their second seasons, they improved to an average of .255 with a .667 OPS:
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
SB
|
CS
|
Avg
|
OBA
|
SPct
|
OPS
|
Wayne
|
Causey
|
1956
|
53
|
88
|
7
|
15
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
4
|
8
|
23
|
0
|
0
|
.170
|
.237
|
.227
|
.464
|
Ed
|
Kranepool
|
1964
|
119
|
420
|
47
|
108
|
19
|
4
|
10
|
45
|
32
|
50
|
0
|
1
|
.257
|
.310
|
.393
|
.703
|
Robin
|
Yount
|
1975
|
147
|
558
|
67
|
149
|
28
|
2
|
8
|
52
|
33
|
69
|
12
|
4
|
.267
|
.307
|
.367
|
.674
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1965
|
106
|
355
|
40
|
91
|
16
|
2
|
6
|
34
|
24
|
47
|
4
|
2
|
.255
|
.301
|
.366
|
.667
|
They relapsed a little in their third seasons:
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
SB
|
CS
|
Avg
|
OBA
|
SPct
|
OPS
|
Wayne
|
Causey
|
1957
|
14
|
10
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
5
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
.200
|
.471
|
.200
|
.671
|
Ed
|
Kranepool
|
1965
|
153
|
525
|
44
|
133
|
24
|
4
|
10
|
53
|
39
|
71
|
1
|
4
|
.253
|
.303
|
.371
|
.675
|
Robin
|
Yount
|
1976
|
161
|
638
|
59
|
161
|
19
|
3
|
2
|
54
|
38
|
69
|
16
|
11
|
.252
|
.292
|
.301
|
.593
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1966
|
109
|
391
|
35
|
99
|
14
|
2
|
4
|
36
|
27
|
47
|
6
|
5
|
.252
|
.301
|
.332
|
.632
|
Here we have a choice. .. here I had a choice, actually; you are pretty much stuck with the choices that I made. Wayne Causey was a Bonus Baby with the Baltimore Orioles in ’55 and ’56. The rules of the time required that a player getting a decent bonus had to spend two years on the major league roster (to discourage the signing of players to large bonuses), but after two years the player could go out to the minor leagues. Causey spent his two seasons with the Orioles, then went to do his minor league work, and did not play in the majors in 1958, 1959 or 1960, just becausey.
I could, then, have grouped Causey’s next major league season either as his fourth major league season, third season after the rookie season, or as his age-24 season, grouping him with Kranepool in 1969 and Yount in 1980. I decided to group him with other players playing their fourth season, third season after the rookie year. It doesn’t ordinarily matter much, because most players don’t have three-year gaps in their careers, and the results you would get from grouping them one way would be essentially the same as the results you would get from grouping them the other way, but. . .. this is the way I chose to do it.
So this is what these three players did in their fourth seasons, and in several seasons following that:
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
SB
|
CS
|
Avg
|
OBA
|
SPct
|
OPS
|
Wayne
|
Causey
|
1961
|
104
|
312
|
37
|
86
|
14
|
1
|
8
|
49
|
37
|
28
|
0
|
0
|
.276
|
.348
|
.404
|
.752
|
Ed
|
Kranepool
|
1966
|
146
|
464
|
51
|
118
|
15
|
2
|
16
|
57
|
41
|
66
|
1
|
1
|
.254
|
.316
|
.399
|
.715
|
Robin
|
Yount
|
1977
|
154
|
605
|
66
|
174
|
34
|
4
|
4
|
49
|
41
|
80
|
16
|
7
|
.288
|
.333
|
.377
|
.710
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AVERAGE
|
Year 4
|
1968
|
135
|
460
|
51
|
126
|
21
|
2
|
9
|
52
|
40
|
58
|
6
|
3
|
.274
|
.329
|
.390
|
.720
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wayne
|
Causey
|
1962
|
117
|
305
|
40
|
77
|
14
|
1
|
4
|
38
|
41
|
30
|
2
|
0
|
.252
|
.340
|
.344
|
.684
|
Ed
|
Kranepool
|
1967
|
141
|
469
|
37
|
126
|
17
|
1
|
10
|
54
|
37
|
51
|
0
|
4
|
.269
|
.321
|
.373
|
.694
|
Robin
|
Yount
|
1978
|
127
|
502
|
66
|
147
|
23
|
9
|
9
|
71
|
24
|
43
|
16
|
5
|
.293
|
.323
|
.428
|
.752
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AVERAGE
|
Year 5
|
1969
|
128
|
425
|
48
|
117
|
18
|
4
|
8
|
54
|
34
|
41
|
6
|
3
|
.274
|
.325
|
.388
|
.713
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wayne
|
Causey
|
1963
|
139
|
554
|
72
|
155
|
32
|
4
|
8
|
44
|
56
|
54
|
4
|
2
|
.280
|
.345
|
.395
|
.740
|
Ed
|
Kranepool
|
1968
|
127
|
373
|
29
|
86
|
13
|
1
|
3
|
20
|
19
|
39
|
0
|
3
|
.231
|
.271
|
.295
|
.566
|
Robin
|
Yount
|
1979
|
149
|
577
|
72
|
154
|
26
|
5
|
8
|
51
|
35
|
52
|
11
|
8
|
.267
|
.308
|
.371
|
.679
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AVERAGE
|
Year 6
|
1970
|
138
|
501
|
58
|
132
|
24
|
3
|
6
|
38
|
37
|
48
|
5
|
4
|
.263
|
.309
|
.361
|
.670
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wayne
|
Causey
|
1964
|
157
|
604
|
82
|
170
|
31
|
4
|
8
|
49
|
88
|
65
|
0
|
1
|
.281
|
.377
|
.386
|
.763
|
Ed
|
Kranepool
|
1969
|
112
|
353
|
36
|
84
|
9
|
2
|
11
|
49
|
37
|
32
|
3
|
2
|
.238
|
.307
|
.368
|
.675
|
Robin
|
Yount
|
1980
|
143
|
611
|
121
|
179
|
49
|
10
|
23
|
87
|
26
|
67
|
20
|
5
|
.293
|
.321
|
.519
|
.840
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AVERAGE
|
Year 7
|
1971
|
137
|
523
|
80
|
144
|
30
|
5
|
14
|
62
|
50
|
55
|
8
|
3
|
.276
|
.341
|
.434
|
.774
|
In Year 7 these three players averaged .276 with 14 homers, 62 RBI, 80 runs scored and a .774 OPS—a long step forward from what they had done at age 18:
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
SB
|
CS
|
Avg
|
OBA
|
SPct
|
OPS
|
AVERAGE
|
Year 1
|
1964
|
87
|
264
|
28
|
59
|
9
|
3
|
2
|
16
|
16
|
40
|
4
|
3
|
.223
|
.266
|
.302
|
.568
|
AVERAGE
|
Year 7
|
1971
|
137
|
523
|
80
|
144
|
30
|
5
|
14
|
62
|
50
|
55
|
8
|
3
|
.276
|
.341
|
.434
|
.774
|
Of course, a cadre of three players doesn’t really mean anything; I’m just using this small group to illustrate the process. These three, driven by Yount, actually continued to improve their OPS past the 7th season, although their playing time began to decline:
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
SB
|
CS
|
Avg
|
OBA
|
SPct
|
OPS
|
Wayne
|
Causey
|
1965
|
144
|
513
|
48
|
134
|
17
|
8
|
3
|
34
|
61
|
48
|
1
|
3
|
.261
|
.341
|
.343
|
.684
|
Ed
|
Kranepool
|
1970
|
43
|
47
|
2
|
8
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
5
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
.170
|
.250
|
.170
|
.420
|
Robin
|
Yount
|
1981
|
96
|
377
|
50
|
103
|
15
|
5
|
10
|
49
|
22
|
37
|
4
|
1
|
.273
|
.312
|
.419
|
.731
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AVERAGE
|
Year 8
|
1972
|
94
|
312
|
33
|
82
|
11
|
4
|
4
|
29
|
29
|
29
|
2
|
1
|
.261
|
.323
|
.365
|
.688
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wayne
|
Causey
|
1966
|
106
|
243
|
24
|
58
|
8
|
2
|
0
|
18
|
31
|
19
|
3
|
0
|
.239
|
.318
|
.288
|
.606
|
Ed
|
Kranepool
|
1971
|
122
|
421
|
61
|
118
|
20
|
4
|
14
|
58
|
38
|
33
|
0
|
4
|
.280
|
.340
|
.447
|
.786
|
Robin
|
Yount
|
1982
|
156
|
635
|
129
|
210
|
46
|
12
|
29
|
114
|
54
|
63
|
14
|
3
|
.331
|
.379
|
.578
|
.957
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AVERAGE
|
Year 9
|
1973
|
128
|
433
|
71
|
129
|
25
|
6
|
14
|
63
|
41
|
38
|
6
|
2
|
.297
|
.356
|
.481
|
.837
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wayne
|
Causey
|
1967
|
124
|
292
|
21
|
66
|
10
|
3
|
1
|
28
|
32
|
35
|
2
|
5
|
.226
|
.302
|
.291
|
.593
|
Ed
|
Kranepool
|
1972
|
122
|
327
|
28
|
88
|
15
|
1
|
8
|
34
|
34
|
35
|
1
|
0
|
.269
|
.336
|
.394
|
.731
|
Robin
|
Yount
|
1983
|
149
|
578
|
102
|
178
|
42
|
10
|
17
|
80
|
72
|
58
|
12
|
5
|
.308
|
.383
|
.503
|
.886
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AVERAGE
|
Year 10
|
1974
|
132
|
399
|
50
|
111
|
22
|
5
|
9
|
47
|
46
|
43
|
5
|
3
|
.277
|
.352
|
.422
|
.774
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wayne
|
Causey
|
1968
|
79
|
148
|
10
|
22
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
11
|
14
|
12
|
0
|
0
|
.149
|
.223
|
.196
|
.419
|
Ed
|
Kranepool
|
1973
|
100
|
284
|
28
|
68
|
12
|
2
|
1
|
35
|
30
|
28
|
1
|
0
|
.239
|
.310
|
.306
|
.616
|
Robin
|
Yount
|
1984
|
160
|
624
|
105
|
186
|
27
|
7
|
16
|
80
|
67
|
67
|
14
|
4
|
.298
|
.362
|
.441
|
.803
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AVERAGE
|
Year 11
|
1975
|
113
|
352
|
48
|
92
|
14
|
3
|
6
|
42
|
37
|
36
|
5
|
1
|
.261
|
.331
|
.370
|
.701
|
After year 11 Wayne Causey dropped out of the majors. After this, then, we are comparing apples with fewer apples. After that it is no longer a comparison of a consistent group of players:
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
SB
|
CS
|
Avg
|
OBA
|
SPct
|
OPS
|
Ed
|
Kranepool
|
1974
|
94
|
217
|
20
|
65
|
11
|
1
|
4
|
24
|
18
|
14
|
1
|
0
|
.300
|
.350
|
.415
|
.765
|
Robin
|
Yount
|
1985
|
122
|
466
|
76
|
129
|
26
|
3
|
15
|
68
|
49
|
56
|
10
|
4
|
.277
|
.342
|
.442
|
.784
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AVERAGE
|
Year 12
|
1980
|
108
|
342
|
48
|
97
|
19
|
2
|
10
|
46
|
34
|
35
|
6
|
2
|
.284
|
.349
|
.433
|
.783
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ed
|
Kranepool
|
1975
|
106
|
325
|
42
|
105
|
16
|
0
|
4
|
43
|
27
|
21
|
1
|
1
|
.323
|
.370
|
.409
|
.779
|
Robin
|
Yount
|
1986
|
140
|
522
|
82
|
163
|
31
|
7
|
9
|
46
|
62
|
73
|
14
|
5
|
.312
|
.388
|
.450
|
.838
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AVERAGE
|
Year 13
|
1981
|
123
|
424
|
62
|
134
|
24
|
4
|
7
|
45
|
45
|
47
|
8
|
3
|
.316
|
.382
|
.434
|
.816
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ed
|
Kranepool
|
1976
|
123
|
415
|
47
|
121
|
17
|
1
|
10
|
49
|
35
|
38
|
1
|
0
|
.292
|
.344
|
.410
|
.754
|
Robin
|
Yount
|
1987
|
158
|
635
|
99
|
198
|
25
|
9
|
21
|
103
|
76
|
94
|
19
|
9
|
.312
|
.384
|
.479
|
.862
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AVERAGE
|
Year 14
|
1982
|
141
|
525
|
73
|
160
|
21
|
5
|
16
|
76
|
56
|
66
|
10
|
5
|
.304
|
.368
|
.451
|
.820
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ed
|
Kranepool
|
1977
|
108
|
281
|
28
|
79
|
17
|
0
|
10
|
40
|
23
|
20
|
1
|
4
|
.281
|
.330
|
.448
|
.778
|
Robin
|
Yount
|
1988
|
162
|
621
|
92
|
190
|
38
|
11
|
13
|
91
|
63
|
63
|
22
|
4
|
.306
|
.369
|
.465
|
.834
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AVERAGE
|
Year 15
|
1983
|
135
|
451
|
60
|
135
|
28
|
6
|
12
|
66
|
43
|
42
|
12
|
4
|
.298
|
.361
|
.460
|
.821
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ed
|
Kranepool
|
1978
|
66
|
81
|
7
|
17
|
2
|
0
|
3
|
19
|
8
|
12
|
0
|
0
|
.210
|
.280
|
.346
|
.625
|
Robin
|
Yount
|
1989
|
160
|
614
|
101
|
195
|
38
|
9
|
21
|
103
|
63
|
71
|
19
|
3
|
.318
|
.384
|
.511
|
.896
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AVERAGE
|
Year 16
|
1984
|
113
|
348
|
54
|
106
|
20
|
5
|
12
|
61
|
36
|
42
|
10
|
2
|
.305
|
.374
|
.492
|
.866
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ed
|
Kranepool
|
1979
|
82
|
155
|
7
|
36
|
5
|
0
|
2
|
17
|
13
|
18
|
0
|
1
|
.232
|
.287
|
.303
|
.591
|
Robin
|
Yount
|
1990
|
158
|
587
|
98
|
145
|
17
|
5
|
17
|
77
|
78
|
89
|
15
|
8
|
.247
|
.337
|
.380
|
.717
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AVERAGE
|
Year 17
|
1985
|
120
|
371
|
53
|
91
|
11
|
3
|
10
|
47
|
46
|
54
|
8
|
5
|
.244
|
.331
|
.364
|
.694
|
The Group Average OPS goes all the way up to .866 in the 16th season, but of course there is no valid comparison to the earlier averages, because the "group" is not the same as it was, and 80% of the playing time in the Year-16 group is accounted for by Robin Yount. After Year 17 Yount is all that is left of this group of three players:
First
|
Last
|
YEAR
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
SB
|
CS
|
Avg
|
OBA
|
SPct
|
OPS
|
Robin
|
Yount
|
1991
|
130
|
503
|
66
|
131
|
20
|
4
|
10
|
77
|
54
|
79
|
6
|
4
|
.260
|
.332
|
.376
|
.707
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AVERAGE
|
Year 18
|
1991
|
130
|
503
|
66
|
131
|
20
|
4
|
10
|
77
|
54
|
79
|
6
|
4
|
.260
|
.332
|
.376
|
.707
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Robin
|
Yount
|
1992
|
150
|
557
|
71
|
147
|
40
|
3
|
8
|
77
|
53
|
81
|
15
|
6
|
.264
|
.325
|
.390
|
.714
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AVERAGE
|
Year 19
|
1992
|
150
|
557
|
71
|
147
|
40
|
3
|
8
|
77
|
53
|
81
|
15
|
6
|
.264
|
.325
|
.390
|
.714
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Robin
|
Yount
|
1993
|
127
|
454
|
62
|
117
|
25
|
3
|
8
|
51
|
44
|
93
|
9
|
2
|
.258
|
.326
|
.379
|
.705
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AVERAGE
|
Year 20
|
1993
|
127
|
454
|
62
|
117
|
25
|
3
|
8
|
51
|
44
|
93
|
9
|
2
|
.258
|
.326
|
.379
|
.705
|
OK; that’s just to explain the process of the research, make sure you understand the flaws and limitations of the method. Now we can get to the real research.
First, let’s look at the number of players who are rookies at each age:
Number of Players
|
Rookie Age
|
3
|
18
|
11
|
19
|
48
|
20
|
111
|
21
|
172
|
22
|
202
|
23
|
212
|
24
|
135
|
25
|
67
|
26
|
26
|
27
|
12
|
28
|
5
|
29
|
2
|
30
|
The peak age for rookiedom, in this study, is age 24. This study would skew slightly younger than all rookies, because we are only studying players who had careers of 800 games or more. If we included players who had shorter careers, more of them would have had their rookie seasons at ages 25 and up. But among players who go on to good careers, the peak rookie ages are 23 and 24.
As to the quality of the rookies, the highest quality is for the youngest players. Among 19-year-old rookies, there are only 11 players in the group, but three of those are in the Hall of Fame (Mickey Mantle, Bill Mazeroski and Al Kaline), and a fourth will be (Ken Griffey, Jr.) A fifth, Tony Congiliaro, would be in the Hall of Fame if he hadn’t gotten hurt and/or sick, and two others, Rusty Staub and Cesar Cedeno, had careers of near-Hall of Fame stature. Alex Rodriguez was a rookie at age 19, but he’s not in this data because he is still active. Players who play regularly at a very early age are generally exceptional players. This chart counts the number of Hall of Famers, by their ages as rookies:
Number of Players
|
Rookie Age
|
Hall of Famers
|
Percentage
|
3
|
18
|
1
|
33%
|
11
|
19
|
3
|
27%
|
48
|
20
|
12
|
25%
|
111
|
21
|
10
|
9%
|
172
|
22
|
7
|
4%
|
202
|
23
|
8
|
4%
|
212
|
24
|
2
|
1%
|
135
|
25
|
0
|
0%
|
67
|
26
|
0
|
0%
|
26
|
27
|
0
|
0%
|
12
|
28
|
0
|
0%
|
5
|
29
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
30
|
0
|
0%
|
One-third of players who are rookies at ages 18 through 20 either are in the Hall of Fame or will be one day. That percentage drops sharply after age 20.
Turning our attention now to the question posed by the reader, which is the rate of improvement which may be anticipated from a group of rookies. . . .this chart summarizes the material given earlier, for the 18-year-old rookies:
PLAYERS WHO ARE ROOKIES AT AGE 18
|
#
|
Yr
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
SB
|
CS
|
Avg
|
OBA
|
SPct
|
OPS
|
3
|
1
|
87
|
264
|
28
|
59
|
9
|
3
|
2
|
16
|
16
|
40
|
4
|
3
|
.223
|
.266
|
.302
|
.568
|
3
|
2
|
106
|
355
|
40
|
91
|
16
|
2
|
6
|
34
|
24
|
47
|
4
|
2
|
.255
|
.301
|
.366
|
.667
|
3
|
3
|
109
|
391
|
35
|
99
|
14
|
2
|
4
|
36
|
27
|
47
|
6
|
5
|
.252
|
.301
|
.332
|
.632
|
3
|
4
|
135
|
460
|
51
|
126
|
21
|
2
|
9
|
52
|
40
|
58
|
6
|
3
|
.274
|
.329
|
.390
|
.720
|
3
|
5
|
128
|
425
|
48
|
117
|
18
|
4
|
8
|
54
|
34
|
41
|
6
|
3
|
.274
|
.325
|
.388
|
.713
|
3
|
6
|
138
|
501
|
58
|
132
|
24
|
3
|
6
|
38
|
37
|
48
|
5
|
4
|
.263
|
.309
|
.361
|
.670
|
3
|
7
|
137
|
523
|
80
|
144
|
30
|
5
|
14
|
62
|
50
|
55
|
8
|
3
|
.276
|
.341
|
.434
|
.774
|
3
|
8
|
94
|
312
|
33
|
82
|
11
|
4
|
4
|
29
|
29
|
29
|
2
|
1
|
.261
|
.323
|
.365
|
.688
|
3
|
9
|
128
|
433
|
71
|
129
|
25
|
6
|
14
|
63
|
41
|
38
|
6
|
2
|
.297
|
.356
|
.481
|
.837
|
3
|
10
|
132
|
399
|
50
|
111
|
22
|
5
|
9
|
47
|
46
|
43
|
5
|
3
|
.277
|
.352
|
.422
|
.774
|
3
|
11
|
113
|
352
|
48
|
92
|
14
|
3
|
6
|
42
|
37
|
36
|
5
|
1
|
.261
|
.331
|
.370
|
.701
|
2
|
12
|
108
|
342
|
48
|
97
|
19
|
2
|
10
|
46
|
34
|
35
|
6
|
2
|
.284
|
.349
|
.433
|
.783
|
2
|
13
|
123
|
424
|
62
|
134
|
24
|
4
|
7
|
45
|
45
|
47
|
8
|
3
|
.316
|
.382
|
.434
|
.816
|
2
|
14
|
141
|
525
|
73
|
160
|
21
|
5
|
16
|
76
|
56
|
66
|
10
|
5
|
.304
|
.368
|
.451
|
.820
|
2
|
15
|
135
|
451
|
60
|
135
|
28
|
6
|
12
|
66
|
43
|
42
|
12
|
4
|
.298
|
.361
|
.460
|
.821
|
2
|
16
|
113
|
348
|
54
|
106
|
20
|
5
|
12
|
61
|
36
|
42
|
10
|
2
|
.305
|
.374
|
.492
|
.866
|
2
|
17
|
120
|
371
|
53
|
91
|
11
|
3
|
10
|
47
|
46
|
54
|
8
|
5
|
.244
|
.331
|
.364
|
.694
|
1
|
18
|
130
|
503
|
66
|
131
|
20
|
4
|
10
|
77
|
54
|
79
|
6
|
4
|
.260
|
.336
|
.376
|
.712
|
1
|
19
|
150
|
557
|
71
|
147
|
40
|
3
|
8
|
77
|
53
|
81
|
15
|
6
|
.264
|
.329
|
.390
|
.719
|
1
|
20
|
127
|
454
|
62
|
117
|
25
|
3
|
8
|
51
|
44
|
93
|
9
|
2
|
.258
|
.327
|
.379
|
.706
|
Here is the parallel data for the 19-year-old rookies—the group including Mantle, Kaline, Griffey, Cedeno, Staub, etc.:
PLAYERS WHO ARE ROOKIES AT AGE 19
|
#
|
Yr
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
SB
|
CS
|
Avg
|
OBA
|
SPct
|
OPS
|
11
|
1
|
103
|
339
|
39
|
88
|
14
|
3
|
7
|
35
|
27
|
52
|
6
|
4
|
.260
|
.317
|
.378
|
.694
|
11
|
2
|
113
|
412
|
61
|
119
|
20
|
4
|
13
|
56
|
36
|
60
|
10
|
5
|
.288
|
.346
|
.453
|
.799
|
11
|
3
|
125
|
434
|
63
|
122
|
22
|
4
|
15
|
67
|
46
|
66
|
13
|
6
|
.282
|
.351
|
.456
|
.808
|
11
|
4
|
121
|
434
|
65
|
124
|
21
|
4
|
15
|
65
|
41
|
63
|
11
|
5
|
.285
|
.347
|
.457
|
.804
|
11
|
5
|
139
|
483
|
68
|
136
|
24
|
4
|
17
|
69
|
57
|
70
|
10
|
5
|
.281
|
.358
|
.455
|
.813
|
11
|
6
|
142
|
509
|
80
|
149
|
25
|
3
|
21
|
78
|
59
|
70
|
11
|
5
|
.293
|
.368
|
.478
|
.847
|
11
|
7
|
132
|
461
|
65
|
128
|
21
|
4
|
16
|
61
|
61
|
61
|
12
|
4
|
.277
|
.363
|
.443
|
.805
|
11
|
8
|
126
|
446
|
70
|
121
|
20
|
4
|
17
|
64
|
58
|
65
|
13
|
4
|
.271
|
.356
|
.448
|
.804
|
10
|
9
|
120
|
442
|
71
|
125
|
20
|
4
|
20
|
68
|
48
|
64
|
11
|
3
|
.283
|
.356
|
.481
|
.836
|
10
|
10
|
124
|
441
|
67
|
121
|
20
|
3
|
17
|
64
|
49
|
60
|
11
|
4
|
.274
|
.348
|
.451
|
.800
|
10
|
11
|
136
|
474
|
71
|
133
|
21
|
4
|
21
|
77
|
63
|
66
|
12
|
4
|
.281
|
.367
|
.474
|
.841
|
10
|
12
|
116
|
384
|
56
|
102
|
16
|
2
|
15
|
56
|
53
|
51
|
5
|
2
|
.266
|
.356
|
.433
|
.789
|
9
|
13
|
119
|
389
|
52
|
106
|
20
|
1
|
13
|
55
|
46
|
52
|
5
|
4
|
.272
|
.352
|
.434
|
.787
|
9
|
14
|
108
|
356
|
48
|
97
|
17
|
1
|
13
|
55
|
49
|
51
|
5
|
3
|
.273
|
.363
|
.439
|
.802
|
8
|
15
|
102
|
347
|
46
|
94
|
17
|
1
|
12
|
49
|
37
|
48
|
6
|
2
|
.271
|
.343
|
.433
|
.776
|
7
|
16
|
111
|
377
|
49
|
103
|
16
|
1
|
16
|
59
|
42
|
53
|
5
|
2
|
.273
|
.348
|
.448
|
.796
|
7
|
17
|
89
|
284
|
38
|
74
|
13
|
1
|
12
|
41
|
43
|
47
|
1
|
1
|
.260
|
.358
|
.444
|
.802
|
4
|
18
|
124
|
402
|
58
|
108
|
19
|
1
|
17
|
59
|
67
|
63
|
3
|
2
|
.269
|
.376
|
.450
|
.826
|
3
|
19
|
107
|
322
|
44
|
95
|
15
|
1
|
15
|
49
|
45
|
48
|
3
|
0
|
.294
|
.382
|
.485
|
.867
|
3
|
20
|
115
|
340
|
39
|
85
|
17
|
0
|
10
|
48
|
44
|
42
|
1
|
1
|
.249
|
.338
|
.394
|
.731
|
3
|
21
|
123
|
353
|
40
|
88
|
18
|
1
|
12
|
50
|
47
|
55
|
1
|
1
|
.248
|
.338
|
.401
|
.739
|
2
|
22
|
56
|
85
|
4
|
19
|
3
|
0
|
1
|
13
|
7
|
13
|
0
|
0
|
.218
|
.273
|
.271
|
.544
|
1
|
23
|
54
|
45
|
2
|
12
|
3
|
0
|
1
|
8
|
10
|
4
|
0
|
0
|
.267
|
.400
|
.400
|
.800
|
Again, we can see that these players had a 150-point increase in OPS over their first six seasons, but we are still dealing with a very small group of players. As the groups get bigger, of course, the year-to-year data stabilizes.
In our data there are 48 players who were rookies at age 20. Twelve of those were Hall of Famers as well: Eddie Mathews, Roberto Clemente, Willie Mays, Ron Santo, Orlando Cepeda, Harmon Killebrew, Frank Robinson, Hank Aaron, Brooks Robinson, Johnny Bench, Rickey Henderson and Roberto Alomar. Several of the other 36 were near-Hall of Famers or will be Hall of Famers, like Joe Torre, Gary Sheffield and Ted Simmons. This chart summarizes the average performance by year of service of players who are rookies at the age of 20:
PLAYERS WHO ARE ROOKIES AT AGE 20
|
#
|
Yr
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
SB
|
CS
|
Avg
|
OBA
|
SPct
|
OPS
|
48
|
1
|
96
|
330
|
42
|
87
|
15
|
3
|
8
|
35
|
28
|
50
|
6
|
4
|
.262
|
.320
|
.396
|
.716
|
48
|
2
|
120
|
430
|
57
|
119
|
19
|
4
|
11
|
51
|
34
|
61
|
11
|
6
|
.276
|
.330
|
.415
|
.745
|
48
|
3
|
122
|
425
|
58
|
115
|
19
|
4
|
13
|
54
|
39
|
60
|
8
|
4
|
.271
|
.332
|
.429
|
.761
|
48
|
4
|
138
|
502
|
74
|
143
|
23
|
5
|
17
|
69
|
48
|
67
|
12
|
6
|
.286
|
.349
|
.453
|
.802
|
48
|
5
|
142
|
523
|
75
|
145
|
24
|
5
|
16
|
68
|
52
|
72
|
15
|
6
|
.277
|
.343
|
.433
|
.776
|
48
|
6
|
134
|
491
|
72
|
138
|
23
|
5
|
17
|
70
|
50
|
65
|
12
|
5
|
.282
|
.349
|
.450
|
.799
|
48
|
7
|
132
|
480
|
70
|
132
|
22
|
4
|
16
|
66
|
50
|
66
|
12
|
5
|
.276
|
.346
|
.441
|
.786
|
48
|
8
|
132
|
472
|
70
|
133
|
22
|
3
|
18
|
69
|
51
|
62
|
10
|
4
|
.281
|
.352
|
.455
|
.807
|
48
|
9
|
135
|
485
|
69
|
133
|
22
|
4
|
16
|
68
|
54
|
66
|
9
|
5
|
.274
|
.348
|
.431
|
.779
|
46
|
10
|
127
|
447
|
66
|
127
|
22
|
2
|
16
|
66
|
51
|
60
|
9
|
4
|
.285
|
.360
|
.450
|
.810
|
45
|
11
|
127
|
444
|
63
|
123
|
21
|
3
|
16
|
64
|
50
|
61
|
7
|
3
|
.277
|
.351
|
.443
|
.794
|
43
|
12
|
122
|
422
|
62
|
118
|
20
|
3
|
16
|
62
|
50
|
62
|
7
|
3
|
.279
|
.356
|
.454
|
.810
|
40
|
13
|
115
|
386
|
56
|
105
|
18
|
2
|
15
|
57
|
46
|
57
|
7
|
3
|
.274
|
.353
|
.448
|
.801
|
37
|
14
|
112
|
377
|
55
|
106
|
17
|
2
|
15
|
58
|
45
|
52
|
6
|
2
|
.282
|
.361
|
.461
|
.822
|
36
|
15
|
106
|
350
|
49
|
94
|
15
|
2
|
13
|
48
|
42
|
47
|
5
|
2
|
.269
|
.349
|
.432
|
.781
|
31
|
16
|
106
|
343
|
47
|
93
|
15
|
2
|
12
|
49
|
43
|
47
|
5
|
2
|
.271
|
.353
|
.429
|
.782
|
24
|
17
|
95
|
295
|
39
|
78
|
13
|
2
|
10
|
44
|
36
|
42
|
4
|
2
|
.265
|
.346
|
.423
|
.769
|
16
|
18
|
100
|
309
|
45
|
84
|
14
|
1
|
11
|
48
|
40
|
48
|
4
|
1
|
.272
|
.360
|
.435
|
.795
|
12
|
19
|
110
|
343
|
52
|
86
|
13
|
1
|
14
|
47
|
52
|
54
|
7
|
2
|
.250
|
.352
|
.411
|
.763
|
10
|
20
|
87
|
270
|
41
|
65
|
10
|
1
|
13
|
40
|
48
|
52
|
10
|
2
|
.240
|
.357
|
.426
|
.782
|
6
|
21
|
80
|
234
|
37
|
64
|
12
|
1
|
9
|
32
|
39
|
37
|
7
|
3
|
.275
|
.380
|
.446
|
.826
|
3
|
22
|
109
|
365
|
48
|
84
|
13
|
1
|
7
|
39
|
62
|
58
|
12
|
4
|
.229
|
.343
|
.334
|
.676
|
2
|
23
|
104
|
325
|
46
|
74
|
13
|
2
|
9
|
39
|
58
|
61
|
13
|
4
|
.228
|
.347
|
.358
|
.706
|
1
|
24
|
72
|
179
|
40
|
40
|
6
|
1
|
5
|
16
|
38
|
47
|
8
|
2
|
.223
|
.371
|
.352
|
.723
|
1
|
25
|
30
|
72
|
7
|
15
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
5
|
11
|
16
|
3
|
0
|
.208
|
.321
|
.306
|
.627
|
These players started with an OPS of .716, and improved that over the next three seasons to the range of .800. Let’s focus on the strikeout and walk data:
PLAYERS WHO ARE ROOKIES AT AGE 20
|
#
|
Yr
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
SB
|
CS
|
BB per 100 Ks
|
48
|
1
|
|
330
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
28
|
50
|
|
|
|
|
56
|
|
48
|
2
|
|
430
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
34
|
61
|
|
|
|
|
56
|
|
48
|
3
|
|
425
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
39
|
60
|
|
|
|
|
64
|
|
48
|
4
|
|
502
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
48
|
67
|
|
|
|
|
71
|
|
48
|
5
|
|
523
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
52
|
72
|
|
|
|
|
72
|
|
48
|
6
|
|
491
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
50
|
65
|
|
|
|
|
76
|
|
48
|
7
|
|
480
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
50
|
66
|
|
|
|
|
76
|
|
48
|
8
|
|
472
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
51
|
62
|
|
|
|
|
82
|
|
48
|
9
|
|
485
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
54
|
66
|
|
|
|
|
82
|
|
46
|
10
|
|
447
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
51
|
60
|
|
|
|
|
84
|
|
45
|
11
|
|
444
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
50
|
61
|
|
|
|
|
81
|
|
43
|
12
|
|
422
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
50
|
62
|
|
|
|
|
81
|
|
40
|
13
|
|
386
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
46
|
57
|
|
|
|
|
81
|
|
37
|
14
|
|
377
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
45
|
52
|
|
|
|
|
87
|
|
36
|
15
|
|
350
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
42
|
47
|
|
|
|
|
89
|
|
31
|
16
|
|
343
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
43
|
47
|
|
|
|
|
90
|
|
24
|
17
|
|
295
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
36
|
42
|
|
|
|
|
85
|
|
16
|
18
|
|
309
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
40
|
48
|
|
|
|
|
84
|
|
12
|
19
|
|
343
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
52
|
54
|
|
|
|
|
97
|
|
10
|
20
|
|
270
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
48
|
52
|
|
|
|
|
92
|
|
6
|
21
|
|
234
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
39
|
37
|
|
|
|
|
107
|
|
3
|
22
|
|
365
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
62
|
58
|
|
|
|
|
107
|
|
2
|
23
|
|
325
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
58
|
61
|
|
|
|
|
95
|
|
1
|
24
|
|
179
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
38
|
47
|
|
|
|
|
81
|
|
1
|
25
|
|
72
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11
|
16
|
|
|
|
|
69
|
|
We can see that the strikeout to walk ratio of a group of players continues to improve as long as the entire group stays together. After 9 years the group is changing, as players drop out of the league, but even after that, in the data that we have, the strikeout/walk ratio of the group continues to improve, although that effect could be caused by the players who have poorer strikeout/walk ratios dropping out, while the players who have good strikeout/walk ratios may stay in the league. But we can see in this group—and you can see in the other groups—that the strikeout/walk ratio continues to improve as long as we are able to study it.
The players who were rookies at age 21 include ten Hall of Famers: Carl Yastrzemski, Paul Molitor, Dave Winfield, Joe Morgan, Cal Ripken, Eddie Murray, George Brett, Rod Carew, Willie McCovey and Gary Carter. There are 111 players in this group, however, so the Hall of Famers are "only" 9% of the group. Other outstanding players who had their rookie seasons at age 21 include Barry Bonds, Tim Raines, Lou Whitaker, Dwight Evans, Harold Baines, Willie Randolph, and Keith Hernandez. The group also includes, however, Jamie Quirk, Jerry Hairston, Dale Berra, Darrel Chaney, Alex Trevino, Rowland Office and John Ellis. Whereas the group of players who were rookies at age 20 averaged 1900 hits in the majors (1914, actually), 235 homers and an .827 OPS, those who were rookies at age 21 averaged 1500 hits (1518, actually), 163 homers and a .779 OPS. I’ll chart those averages at the end of the article. This is the average performance, by year of career, of the players who were rookies at age 21:
PLAYERS WHO ARE ROOKIES AT AGE 21
|
#
|
Yr
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
SB
|
CS
|
Avg
|
OBA
|
SPct
|
OPS
|
111
|
1
|
104
|
341
|
43
|
89
|
14
|
3
|
7
|
36
|
31
|
55
|
7
|
4
|
.260
|
.322
|
.381
|
.703
|
111
|
2
|
115
|
395
|
51
|
105
|
18
|
4
|
10
|
46
|
37
|
61
|
8
|
4
|
.265
|
.328
|
.402
|
.731
|
111
|
3
|
122
|
424
|
58
|
115
|
20
|
4
|
12
|
52
|
44
|
64
|
9
|
4
|
.272
|
.341
|
.417
|
.758
|
111
|
4
|
126
|
440
|
60
|
119
|
21
|
4
|
12
|
55
|
46
|
64
|
10
|
5
|
.270
|
.339
|
.413
|
.752
|
111
|
5
|
130
|
460
|
66
|
126
|
22
|
4
|
14
|
61
|
48
|
66
|
11
|
5
|
.274
|
.343
|
.430
|
.774
|
111
|
6
|
130
|
454
|
63
|
124
|
21
|
4
|
13
|
59
|
49
|
64
|
10
|
5
|
.273
|
.344
|
.424
|
.769
|
111
|
7
|
124
|
429
|
60
|
116
|
20
|
3
|
13
|
56
|
48
|
61
|
8
|
4
|
.269
|
.345
|
.421
|
.766
|
111
|
8
|
120
|
412
|
57
|
112
|
20
|
3
|
12
|
53
|
47
|
59
|
8
|
4
|
.272
|
.347
|
.420
|
.767
|
109
|
9
|
115
|
391
|
53
|
105
|
19
|
2
|
12
|
51
|
44
|
55
|
7
|
3
|
.269
|
.344
|
.419
|
.763
|
101
|
10
|
115
|
388
|
54
|
107
|
19
|
2
|
12
|
53
|
46
|
53
|
7
|
4
|
.274
|
.353
|
.428
|
.780
|
89
|
11
|
120
|
403
|
55
|
109
|
20
|
2
|
12
|
56
|
49
|
58
|
7
|
3
|
.271
|
.352
|
.420
|
.772
|
83
|
12
|
112
|
366
|
51
|
99
|
17
|
2
|
12
|
52
|
47
|
52
|
6
|
3
|
.270
|
.355
|
.424
|
.778
|
75
|
13
|
104
|
337
|
45
|
87
|
15
|
2
|
11
|
46
|
41
|
51
|
5
|
3
|
.259
|
.342
|
.410
|
.752
|
62
|
14
|
96
|
300
|
42
|
79
|
14
|
2
|
9
|
42
|
38
|
44
|
4
|
2
|
.264
|
.350
|
.414
|
.764
|
50
|
15
|
99
|
318
|
44
|
86
|
16
|
1
|
10
|
44
|
40
|
45
|
5
|
2
|
.269
|
.353
|
.422
|
.775
|
39
|
16
|
97
|
301
|
44
|
84
|
14
|
2
|
11
|
46
|
42
|
42
|
4
|
2
|
.278
|
.368
|
.443
|
.811
|
27
|
17
|
105
|
332
|
48
|
95
|
17
|
1
|
11
|
48
|
46
|
42
|
4
|
2
|
.287
|
.375
|
.447
|
.822
|
19
|
18
|
103
|
345
|
48
|
94
|
18
|
1
|
12
|
50
|
46
|
48
|
5
|
2
|
.273
|
.361
|
.439
|
.800
|
15
|
19
|
115
|
380
|
57
|
110
|
20
|
2
|
14
|
61
|
58
|
50
|
5
|
2
|
.288
|
.385
|
.460
|
.845
|
12
|
20
|
105
|
364
|
45
|
98
|
18
|
1
|
13
|
56
|
37
|
50
|
3
|
2
|
.268
|
.336
|
.428
|
.764
|
8
|
21
|
99
|
299
|
38
|
76
|
14
|
1
|
10
|
45
|
44
|
42
|
2
|
1
|
.255
|
.353
|
.407
|
.760
|
5
|
22
|
77
|
222
|
30
|
55
|
10
|
0
|
9
|
33
|
45
|
34
|
1
|
0
|
.248
|
.379
|
.422
|
.801
|
1
|
23
|
119
|
380
|
38
|
101
|
24
|
0
|
10
|
56
|
54
|
29
|
0
|
0
|
.266
|
.360
|
.408
|
.768
|
The one player in that group who played into his 23rd season was Yastrzemski, while McCovey, Winfield, Baines and Bonds all made it to 22 seasons. Players who are rookies at age 21 have an average increase in OPS, over the following four seasons, of about 70 points. Here again, we see the consistent improvements in control of the strike zone as long as we are able to track that.
Among the 172 players in our group who were rookies at the age of 22, the seven Hall of Famers are Tony Gwynn, Luis Aparicio, Andre Dawson, Jim Rice, Barry Larkin, Reggie Jackson and Ryne Sandberg. Other players of note who had their rookie seasons at 22 include Pete Rose, Al Oliver, Rafael Palmeiro, Steve Garvey, Frank Thomas (Big Hurt), Dave Concepcion, Chili Davis, Bernie Williams, Bert Campaneris, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, Will Clark, Harvey Kuenn, Reggie Smith, Amos Otis, Frank White, Willie Horton, George Scott, George Hendrick, George Foster, George Bush, George Orwell, George Patton, George Washington, George Washington Carver, George Clooney, George Custer, George McGovern, George Stephanopoulos, Bobby Bonds, Dick Allen, Robin Ventura, Rocky Colavito, Bill White, Albert Belle, and Jermaine Dye. On the other hand, the group also included Woody Woodward, Jack Brohamer, Ken Boswell, Tim Flannery, Ed Herrmann, Daryl Boston, Russ Nixon, Tom Veryzer and Manny Lee. This is the average performance of this group, by year:
PLAYERS WHO ARE ROOKIES AT AGE 22
|
#
|
Yr
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
SB
|
CS
|
Avg
|
OBA
|
SPct
|
OPS
|
172
|
1
|
102
|
337
|
44
|
88
|
14
|
3
|
8
|
38
|
29
|
56
|
7
|
4
|
.260
|
.320
|
.389
|
.709
|
172
|
2
|
114
|
390
|
52
|
104
|
17
|
3
|
9
|
44
|
35
|
60
|
10
|
5
|
.266
|
.328
|
.396
|
.724
|
172
|
3
|
122
|
422
|
58
|
114
|
20
|
4
|
11
|
52
|
39
|
63
|
12
|
5
|
.271
|
.334
|
.413
|
.747
|
172
|
4
|
129
|
454
|
63
|
125
|
21
|
4
|
13
|
59
|
42
|
65
|
11
|
5
|
.275
|
.338
|
.423
|
.761
|
172
|
5
|
131
|
470
|
66
|
131
|
23
|
4
|
14
|
62
|
46
|
67
|
11
|
6
|
.279
|
.346
|
.433
|
.778
|
172
|
6
|
131
|
473
|
68
|
131
|
23
|
4
|
14
|
61
|
47
|
67
|
12
|
5
|
.277
|
.344
|
.426
|
.771
|
172
|
7
|
126
|
444
|
62
|
121
|
21
|
3
|
13
|
58
|
45
|
64
|
11
|
5
|
.273
|
.341
|
.423
|
.765
|
169
|
8
|
118
|
411
|
57
|
112
|
19
|
3
|
12
|
53
|
43
|
61
|
8
|
4
|
.273
|
.345
|
.423
|
.768
|
165
|
9
|
116
|
401
|
55
|
109
|
19
|
2
|
12
|
52
|
41
|
58
|
8
|
4
|
.271
|
.342
|
.420
|
.763
|
161
|
10
|
113
|
384
|
53
|
105
|
19
|
3
|
12
|
51
|
39
|
57
|
7
|
3
|
.273
|
.343
|
.425
|
.768
|
142
|
11
|
108
|
368
|
50
|
100
|
17
|
2
|
10
|
47
|
37
|
53
|
7
|
3
|
.273
|
.342
|
.415
|
.758
|
121
|
12
|
104
|
352
|
46
|
94
|
17
|
2
|
10
|
45
|
36
|
53
|
6
|
3
|
.268
|
.339
|
.410
|
.749
|
95
|
13
|
102
|
335
|
46
|
91
|
16
|
2
|
10
|
45
|
36
|
53
|
6
|
2
|
.272
|
.344
|
.419
|
.763
|
74
|
14
|
111
|
355
|
47
|
96
|
18
|
2
|
10
|
49
|
37
|
54
|
5
|
3
|
.271
|
.342
|
.417
|
.759
|
58
|
15
|
105
|
328
|
43
|
89
|
16
|
2
|
10
|
45
|
35
|
51
|
5
|
2
|
.271
|
.344
|
.419
|
.764
|
43
|
16
|
92
|
290
|
37
|
77
|
14
|
1
|
9
|
39
|
28
|
44
|
4
|
3
|
.266
|
.333
|
.411
|
.744
|
28
|
17
|
90
|
285
|
35
|
76
|
14
|
1
|
8
|
39
|
27
|
40
|
3
|
2
|
.268
|
.335
|
.414
|
.749
|
19
|
18
|
97
|
313
|
39
|
85
|
17
|
0
|
8
|
42
|
34
|
45
|
3
|
2
|
.271
|
.344
|
.403
|
.747
|
12
|
19
|
76
|
238
|
31
|
64
|
10
|
1
|
6
|
28
|
26
|
34
|
2
|
1
|
.271
|
.346
|
.392
|
.738
|
4
|
20
|
98
|
283
|
33
|
74
|
13
|
2
|
5
|
32
|
28
|
38
|
3
|
2
|
.261
|
.331
|
.372
|
.703
|
1
|
21
|
151
|
493
|
52
|
121
|
14
|
3
|
0
|
45
|
52
|
28
|
7
|
7
|
.245
|
.319
|
.286
|
.605
|
1
|
22
|
121
|
374
|
43
|
107
|
15
|
2
|
0
|
34
|
40
|
27
|
1
|
1
|
.286
|
.357
|
.337
|
.694
|
1
|
23
|
119
|
405
|
60
|
107
|
12
|
2
|
2
|
46
|
86
|
35
|
8
|
1
|
.264
|
.397
|
.319
|
.716
|
1
|
24
|
72
|
237
|
15
|
52
|
8
|
2
|
0
|
25
|
30
|
31
|
3
|
0
|
.219
|
.317
|
.270
|
.587
|
Here, of course, the player who lasts for 24 years is Pete Rose, and the overall improvement of the group after their rookie season is not discernibly different from that of the 21-year-olds.
Dealing now with the 23-year-old rookies. . .there were 202 of these, not a single one of whom was named "George". A lot of "Daves". . .Dave Rader, Dave Chalk, Dave Kingman, Dave Parker, Dave Anderson, Dave Henderson, Dave Hanson, Davey Johnson. The eight Hall of Famers in the group, alphabetically, are Ernie Banks, Lou Brock, Tony Perez, Kirby Puckett, Mike Schmidt, Ozzie Smith, Willie Stargell and Billy Williams, and the group also includes the two Houston superstars who might go into the Hall of Fame, Bagwell and Biggio. Other outstanding players are Parker, Fred McGriff, Murcer, Lynn, Oliva, Grich, Frank Howard, Nomah, Mark McGwire and Mo Vaughn, as well as Chicken Stanley, Terry Crowley, Ty Cline and Herm Winningham. Tony Oliva’s listed age may not be correct. This is the chart for the 23-year-old rookies:
PLAYERS WHO ARE ROOKIES AT AGE 23
|
#
|
Yr
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
SB
|
CS
|
Avg
|
OBA
|
SPct
|
OPS
|
202
|
1
|
105
|
341
|
44
|
89
|
15
|
3
|
9
|
40
|
32
|
59
|
8
|
4
|
.260
|
.325
|
.399
|
.724
|
202
|
2
|
119
|
391
|
51
|
103
|
17
|
3
|
10
|
47
|
37
|
63
|
9
|
4
|
.263
|
.328
|
.400
|
.728
|
202
|
3
|
124
|
419
|
56
|
113
|
20
|
3
|
12
|
52
|
40
|
66
|
10
|
5
|
.270
|
.336
|
.416
|
.752
|
202
|
4
|
126
|
430
|
59
|
116
|
21
|
3
|
13
|
55
|
44
|
69
|
10
|
5
|
.271
|
.340
|
.423
|
.764
|
202
|
5
|
127
|
431
|
58
|
116
|
21
|
3
|
13
|
56
|
43
|
69
|
9
|
4
|
.269
|
.338
|
.419
|
.757
|
202
|
6
|
121
|
404
|
54
|
109
|
20
|
3
|
12
|
54
|
43
|
63
|
8
|
4
|
.269
|
.342
|
.423
|
.764
|
202
|
7
|
116
|
387
|
52
|
103
|
19
|
3
|
12
|
52
|
40
|
61
|
7
|
4
|
.267
|
.338
|
.418
|
.757
|
200
|
8
|
111
|
363
|
50
|
97
|
17
|
2
|
12
|
50
|
38
|
59
|
6
|
3
|
.267
|
.339
|
.425
|
.764
|
183
|
9
|
106
|
348
|
47
|
94
|
17
|
2
|
11
|
47
|
37
|
56
|
6
|
3
|
.269
|
.342
|
.421
|
.763
|
157
|
10
|
102
|
331
|
45
|
89
|
16
|
2
|
11
|
45
|
35
|
53
|
5
|
3
|
.269
|
.342
|
.423
|
.765
|
133
|
11
|
103
|
332
|
44
|
89
|
15
|
2
|
11
|
46
|
36
|
54
|
5
|
2
|
.269
|
.343
|
.421
|
.764
|
108
|
12
|
104
|
327
|
44
|
88
|
16
|
2
|
11
|
46
|
39
|
53
|
4
|
3
|
.270
|
.351
|
.426
|
.777
|
81
|
13
|
99
|
315
|
42
|
84
|
15
|
2
|
11
|
45
|
34
|
52
|
4
|
2
|
.267
|
.342
|
.426
|
.769
|
62
|
14
|
104
|
333
|
46
|
89
|
16
|
2
|
11
|
48
|
39
|
55
|
5
|
2
|
.266
|
.347
|
.430
|
.777
|
47
|
15
|
100
|
324
|
43
|
85
|
15
|
1
|
12
|
46
|
34
|
56
|
4
|
2
|
.261
|
.336
|
.423
|
.759
|
27
|
16
|
116
|
372
|
47
|
97
|
18
|
2
|
12
|
52
|
35
|
60
|
4
|
2
|
.261
|
.331
|
.412
|
.743
|
16
|
17
|
101
|
338
|
44
|
88
|
16
|
1
|
12
|
46
|
32
|
54
|
4
|
2
|
.261
|
.330
|
.423
|
.754
|
13
|
18
|
91
|
273
|
32
|
68
|
13
|
1
|
7
|
32
|
24
|
46
|
3
|
2
|
.250
|
.316
|
.385
|
.701
|
6
|
19
|
77
|
231
|
30
|
60
|
12
|
1
|
5
|
27
|
24
|
41
|
2
|
1
|
.260
|
.332
|
.384
|
.717
|
2
|
20
|
73
|
105
|
7.5
|
25
|
5
|
1
|
3
|
16
|
11
|
23
|
0
|
0
|
.238
|
.307
|
.367
|
.674
|
1
|
21
|
72
|
183
|
25
|
60
|
8
|
0
|
6
|
33
|
22
|
22
|
0
|
2
|
.328
|
.400
|
.470
|
.870
|
1
|
22
|
77
|
200
|
14
|
51
|
12
|
1
|
2
|
29
|
25
|
25
|
0
|
0
|
.255
|
.338
|
.355
|
.693
|
We can see, then, that as the rookies get older, they are better prepared to compete in the major leagues as rookies. The OPS of the rookie class is .694 at age 19, .703 at age 21, .709 at age 22, .724 at age 23. But the potential of the class is going down, with their peak OPS (for the complete group) being .847 at age 19, .807 at age 20, .778 at age 22, and .764 at age 23. So the short answer to the reader’s query is, it depends on the rookie’s age. If he’s 19, you can guess that he’ll have something like a 100-point growth in OPS. If he’s an older rookie, then one’s expectations for improvement should be modest.
At age 24 we have our largest group of rookies, 212 of them. The Hall of Famers in the group are Wade Boggs and Carlton Fisk, and the group OPS never reaches .750 as long as the whole gang is together. Mike Piazza was a rookie at 24. Trying to find anyone else in the group who ever won an MVP Award. . ..Ken Boyer, Ken Caminiti, Kevin Mitchell, Jackie Jensen. I believe that is it.
PLAYERS WHO ARE ROOKIES AT AGE 24
|
#
|
Yr
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
SB
|
CS
|
Avg
|
OBA
|
SPct
|
OPS
|
212
|
1
|
100
|
312
|
40
|
82
|
13
|
3
|
7
|
35
|
27
|
50
|
6
|
4
|
.262
|
.322
|
.390
|
.711
|
212
|
2
|
116
|
385
|
51
|
102
|
18
|
3
|
9
|
45
|
36
|
59
|
8
|
4
|
.266
|
.329
|
.396
|
.725
|
212
|
3
|
120
|
409
|
55
|
110
|
18
|
3
|
10
|
49
|
38
|
62
|
9
|
5
|
.268
|
.332
|
.402
|
.734
|
212
|
4
|
127
|
436
|
59
|
118
|
20
|
3
|
12
|
54
|
41
|
65
|
9
|
5
|
.269
|
.334
|
.411
|
.744
|
212
|
5
|
123
|
421
|
56
|
112
|
20
|
3
|
11
|
52
|
41
|
65
|
9
|
5
|
.267
|
.333
|
.410
|
.743
|
212
|
6
|
124
|
421
|
57
|
113
|
20
|
3
|
11
|
53
|
41
|
64
|
8
|
4
|
.268
|
.335
|
.410
|
.745
|
211
|
7
|
118
|
397
|
53
|
105
|
19
|
3
|
10
|
51
|
40
|
61
|
6
|
4
|
.265
|
.335
|
.405
|
.740
|
208
|
8
|
114
|
372
|
49
|
99
|
18
|
2
|
11
|
48
|
38
|
58
|
6
|
3
|
.267
|
.337
|
.414
|
.751
|
198
|
9
|
104
|
331
|
45
|
89
|
17
|
2
|
10
|
43
|
34
|
53
|
5
|
3
|
.269
|
.339
|
.416
|
.756
|
170
|
10
|
105
|
333
|
44
|
89
|
16
|
2
|
10
|
44
|
36
|
53
|
4
|
3
|
.267
|
.341
|
.413
|
.754
|
145
|
11
|
98
|
304
|
40
|
80
|
15
|
1
|
9
|
40
|
32
|
48
|
4
|
2
|
.264
|
.337
|
.411
|
.748
|
117
|
12
|
94
|
287
|
38
|
75
|
14
|
1
|
9
|
39
|
32
|
49
|
4
|
2
|
.263
|
.340
|
.410
|
.750
|
86
|
13
|
96
|
284
|
36
|
74
|
14
|
1
|
9
|
39
|
32
|
47
|
3
|
2
|
.261
|
.338
|
.411
|
.749
|
58
|
14
|
94
|
283
|
38
|
75
|
13
|
1
|
9
|
39
|
33
|
46
|
3
|
2
|
.264
|
.343
|
.410
|
.753
|
44
|
15
|
80
|
235
|
30
|
60
|
12
|
1
|
7
|
29
|
26
|
40
|
3
|
2
|
.257
|
.334
|
.398
|
.733
|
24
|
16
|
84
|
245
|
33
|
63
|
12
|
1
|
8
|
33
|
30
|
38
|
1
|
1
|
.257
|
.339
|
.415
|
.754
|
16
|
17
|
90
|
262
|
34
|
68
|
12
|
1
|
9
|
37
|
32
|
42
|
2
|
1
|
.260
|
.343
|
.412
|
.755
|
11
|
18
|
77
|
221
|
27
|
56
|
10
|
2
|
6
|
30
|
29
|
35
|
1
|
1
|
.253
|
.341
|
.398
|
.739
|
6
|
19
|
89
|
221
|
27
|
57
|
9
|
1
|
7
|
33
|
28
|
36
|
2
|
1
|
.256
|
.344
|
.398
|
.742
|
3
|
20
|
107
|
262
|
26
|
64
|
14
|
0
|
9
|
43
|
23
|
54
|
2
|
1
|
.243
|
.309
|
.405
|
.714
|
2
|
21
|
79
|
177
|
13
|
44
|
7
|
1
|
3
|
24
|
18
|
44
|
5
|
1
|
.249
|
.322
|
.337
|
.659
|
2
|
22
|
40
|
72
|
5
|
15
|
2
|
0
|
1
|
10
|
8
|
17
|
1
|
1
|
.210
|
.292
|
.273
|
.565
|
The two players who started at age 24 and lasted 22 years were Carlton Fisk and Julio Franco. For purposes of this study I ignored any "pre-rookie" performance.
At age 25 the number of rookies who last as long as 800 games in the majors drops sharply, to 135. No one in this group is in the Hall of Fame, and also, no one in this group ever won an MVP Award. The best players in this group are Kenny Lofton, Brett Butler, Andres Galarraga, Moises Alou, Ron Cey, Bob Boone, Norm Cash and Lou Piniella. One notable thing is that, in this group, I think we have almost all of the greatest fluke seasons of the last 60 years. . .Norm Cash in 1961, Jim Hickman in 1970, Cito Gaston in 1970, Bill Mueller in 2003, Floyd Robinson in 1962, maybe Kevin Seitzer in 1987. There are a few Rookies of the Year in here—Piniella, Jimmie Hall, Tommy Helms, Bake McBride, Gary Mathews, Ron Kittle—but the Rookie of the Year Award often tends to be the career highlight for this group.
PLAYERS WHO ARE ROOKIES AT AGE 25
|
#
|
Yr
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
SB
|
CS
|
Avg
|
OBA
|
SPct
|
OPS
|
135
|
1
|
105
|
328
|
43
|
88
|
14
|
3
|
7
|
37
|
30
|
51
|
7
|
3
|
.267
|
.330
|
.394
|
.724
|
135
|
2
|
120
|
394
|
52
|
107
|
19
|
4
|
9
|
48
|
37
|
58
|
8
|
4
|
.272
|
.336
|
.409
|
.745
|
135
|
3
|
120
|
408
|
54
|
111
|
20
|
3
|
10
|
49
|
38
|
60
|
9
|
4
|
.271
|
.336
|
.408
|
.745
|
135
|
4
|
124
|
422
|
57
|
116
|
21
|
3
|
11
|
52
|
39
|
61
|
9
|
5
|
.275
|
.338
|
.414
|
.752
|
135
|
5
|
125
|
423
|
57
|
116
|
20
|
3
|
11
|
53
|
40
|
61
|
8
|
4
|
.273
|
.340
|
.415
|
.754
|
135
|
6
|
116
|
375
|
49
|
100
|
18
|
2
|
9
|
46
|
35
|
54
|
6
|
3
|
.268
|
.333
|
.403
|
.735
|
134
|
7
|
111
|
355
|
46
|
96
|
17
|
2
|
9
|
43
|
33
|
51
|
6
|
3
|
.270
|
.335
|
.404
|
.739
|
129
|
8
|
105
|
325
|
42
|
86
|
16
|
2
|
8
|
40
|
30
|
48
|
4
|
3
|
.265
|
.330
|
.394
|
.725
|
112
|
9
|
98
|
305
|
39
|
83
|
15
|
2
|
7
|
38
|
29
|
43
|
4
|
2
|
.273
|
.338
|
.403
|
.741
|
93
|
10
|
96
|
290
|
36
|
78
|
14
|
2
|
7
|
36
|
28
|
42
|
3
|
2
|
.270
|
.336
|
.401
|
.736
|
71
|
11
|
88
|
254
|
32
|
68
|
13
|
1
|
7
|
33
|
25
|
38
|
3
|
2
|
.266
|
.334
|
.403
|
.737
|
45
|
12
|
90
|
271
|
36
|
73
|
13
|
1
|
8
|
35
|
27
|
41
|
3
|
2
|
.268
|
.338
|
.411
|
.748
|
29
|
13
|
94
|
280
|
36
|
76
|
14
|
2
|
7
|
35
|
30
|
41
|
3
|
2
|
.272
|
.347
|
.410
|
.758
|
19
|
14
|
91
|
280
|
36
|
77
|
14
|
1
|
7
|
34
|
27
|
40
|
4
|
1
|
.274
|
.341
|
.408
|
.749
|
16
|
15
|
63
|
182
|
23
|
49
|
8
|
1
|
4
|
19
|
17
|
25
|
4
|
1
|
.270
|
.334
|
.384
|
.718
|
8
|
16
|
73
|
218
|
29
|
62
|
9
|
1
|
3
|
21
|
21
|
29
|
6
|
3
|
.286
|
.349
|
.380
|
.729
|
4
|
17
|
82
|
209
|
21
|
58
|
8
|
1
|
4
|
24
|
19
|
31
|
1
|
1
|
.276
|
.335
|
.371
|
.706
|
3
|
18
|
18
|
45
|
4
|
11
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
4
|
6
|
5
|
0
|
0
|
.254
|
.338
|
.299
|
.636
|
1
|
19
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
.000
|
.000
|
.000
|
.000
|
There are only 67 rookies in our study who were 26 years old, but two of those had near-Hall of Fame careers, Edgar Martinez and Maury Wills, and two did win MVP Awards, Maury Wills in 1962 and Elston Howard in 1963. A lot of guys who were pretty good. . .Jim Gentile, Jim Lemon, Vic Power, Phil Garner, Don Hoak, Donn Clendenon, Vic Davalillo, George Altman.
PLAYERS WHO ARE ROOKIES AT AGE 26
|
#
|
Yr
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
SB
|
CS
|
Avg
|
OBA
|
SPct
|
OPS
|
67
|
1
|
100
|
300
|
40
|
80
|
12
|
3
|
6
|
32
|
27
|
45
|
10
|
4
|
.265
|
.327
|
.386
|
.713
|
67
|
2
|
121
|
386
|
54
|
104
|
17
|
3
|
9
|
45
|
37
|
60
|
12
|
6
|
.270
|
.336
|
.400
|
.735
|
67
|
3
|
123
|
417
|
58
|
112
|
19
|
4
|
10
|
47
|
40
|
65
|
13
|
5
|
.269
|
.336
|
.404
|
.740
|
67
|
4
|
127
|
428
|
59
|
116
|
19
|
3
|
10
|
50
|
41
|
65
|
13
|
6
|
.272
|
.338
|
.406
|
.744
|
67
|
5
|
121
|
395
|
53
|
105
|
18
|
3
|
9
|
47
|
38
|
60
|
11
|
5
|
.265
|
.332
|
.395
|
.727
|
67
|
6
|
109
|
354
|
46
|
92
|
15
|
3
|
8
|
41
|
32
|
55
|
11
|
4
|
.259
|
.324
|
.386
|
.710
|
66
|
7
|
106
|
325
|
44
|
86
|
15
|
2
|
7
|
37
|
34
|
51
|
10
|
4
|
.265
|
.336
|
.387
|
.723
|
62
|
8
|
105
|
306
|
41
|
80
|
15
|
2
|
7
|
37
|
32
|
49
|
8
|
3
|
.263
|
.334
|
.396
|
.730
|
52
|
9
|
87
|
260
|
36
|
70
|
12
|
2
|
6
|
32
|
26
|
39
|
6
|
3
|
.269
|
.337
|
.394
|
.732
|
41
|
10
|
94
|
280
|
35
|
75
|
13
|
1
|
6
|
31
|
27
|
42
|
6
|
2
|
.268
|
.335
|
.389
|
.724
|
29
|
11
|
87
|
257
|
34
|
69
|
11
|
2
|
5
|
27
|
25
|
38
|
6
|
3
|
.268
|
.335
|
.386
|
.720
|
19
|
12
|
95
|
282
|
38
|
76
|
13
|
1
|
6
|
31
|
31
|
42
|
7
|
3
|
.269
|
.342
|
.385
|
.728
|
15
|
13
|
88
|
249
|
31
|
63
|
11
|
1
|
5
|
28
|
27
|
40
|
7
|
2
|
.253
|
.328
|
.356
|
.683
|
9
|
14
|
71
|
187
|
25
|
48
|
6
|
1
|
3
|
18
|
20
|
32
|
6
|
2
|
.258
|
.333
|
.358
|
.691
|
4
|
15
|
71
|
184
|
28
|
50
|
8
|
0
|
7
|
30
|
30
|
32
|
7
|
2
|
.273
|
.379
|
.429
|
.807
|
2
|
16
|
74
|
246
|
23
|
65
|
12
|
0
|
6
|
32
|
29
|
54
|
1
|
0
|
.262
|
.342
|
.382
|
.725
|
Here the selection bias—not including players who played less than 800 games in the majors in our study—here that issue is critical. Based on this, we would conclude that even players who come to the majors at age 26 show some improvement, over the next several years, as they adjust to the major leagues. But this may not be an accurate conclusion, as it may be that the 26-year-olds who wash out of the majors short of 800 games are going down by as much as these players are going up. We do know that some players who don’t get established in the majors until they are 26 still show some improvement over the following years.
Just finishing out the data now:
PLAYERS WHO ARE ROOKIES AT AGE 27 (26 of them)
|
#
|
Yr
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
SB
|
CS
|
Avg
|
OBA
|
SPct
|
OPS
|
26
|
1
|
109
|
344
|
49
|
94
|
15
|
3
|
6
|
37
|
29
|
53
|
11
|
4
|
.274
|
.330
|
.386
|
.716
|
26
|
2
|
117
|
382
|
49
|
104
|
17
|
3
|
9
|
40
|
31
|
54
|
13
|
4
|
.271
|
.328
|
.402
|
.730
|
26
|
3
|
125
|
430
|
59
|
120
|
21
|
4
|
9
|
48
|
38
|
59
|
14
|
6
|
.278
|
.336
|
.412
|
.749
|
26
|
4
|
135
|
473
|
61
|
127
|
23
|
5
|
10
|
53
|
41
|
63
|
13
|
6
|
.269
|
.328
|
.400
|
.728
|
26
|
5
|
117
|
381
|
49
|
98
|
17
|
3
|
9
|
43
|
34
|
54
|
9
|
4
|
.258
|
.321
|
.388
|
.709
|
26
|
6
|
111
|
364
|
51
|
98
|
16
|
3
|
9
|
46
|
34
|
52
|
8
|
4
|
.270
|
.336
|
.401
|
.737
|
26
|
7
|
119
|
406
|
51
|
107
|
19
|
3
|
9
|
45
|
33
|
57
|
7
|
4
|
.263
|
.321
|
.389
|
.709
|
25
|
8
|
98
|
310
|
42
|
82
|
14
|
2
|
6
|
32
|
27
|
44
|
8
|
3
|
.266
|
.327
|
.384
|
.710
|
21
|
9
|
94
|
280
|
35
|
70
|
10
|
2
|
5
|
30
|
28
|
41
|
6
|
2
|
.249
|
.319
|
.354
|
.673
|
16
|
10
|
77
|
218
|
27
|
58
|
10
|
1
|
6
|
27
|
24
|
31
|
2
|
1
|
.265
|
.337
|
.408
|
.745
|
10
|
11
|
71
|
217
|
29
|
56
|
12
|
1
|
6
|
26
|
23
|
32
|
2
|
1
|
.260
|
.331
|
.405
|
.736
|
5
|
12
|
73
|
196
|
23
|
53
|
11
|
1
|
4
|
28
|
18
|
32
|
4
|
2
|
.270
|
.331
|
.404
|
.735
|
1
|
13
|
131
|
335
|
42
|
102
|
20
|
2
|
3
|
33
|
38
|
58
|
2
|
0
|
.304
|
.378
|
.403
|
.781
|
1
|
14
|
142
|
489
|
54
|
131
|
26
|
4
|
10
|
66
|
40
|
65
|
3
|
2
|
.268
|
.328
|
.399
|
.726
|
1
|
15
|
101
|
256
|
25
|
65
|
13
|
1
|
6
|
37
|
27
|
36
|
4
|
0
|
.254
|
.323
|
.383
|
.706
|
PLAYERS WHO ARE ROOKIES AT AGE 28 (there are 12 of those)
|
#
|
Yr
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
SB
|
CS
|
Avg
|
OBA
|
SPct
|
OPS
|
12
|
1
|
76
|
194
|
24
|
49
|
8
|
2
|
3
|
17
|
20
|
26
|
5
|
3
|
.251
|
.320
|
.350
|
.669
|
12
|
2
|
93
|
269
|
38
|
74
|
14
|
1
|
7
|
35
|
29
|
37
|
8
|
4
|
.276
|
.347
|
.419
|
.766
|
12
|
3
|
106
|
338
|
45
|
91
|
18
|
3
|
7
|
40
|
34
|
42
|
8
|
3
|
.269
|
.337
|
.398
|
.735
|
12
|
4
|
114
|
344
|
43
|
91
|
18
|
2
|
8
|
38
|
36
|
47
|
6
|
3
|
.264
|
.336
|
.399
|
.735
|
12
|
5
|
117
|
351
|
46
|
93
|
17
|
2
|
10
|
45
|
39
|
53
|
7
|
4
|
.264
|
.339
|
.409
|
.748
|
12
|
6
|
121
|
384
|
49
|
105
|
18
|
2
|
11
|
50
|
39
|
58
|
7
|
2
|
.274
|
.341
|
.422
|
.763
|
12
|
7
|
111
|
342
|
46
|
92
|
17
|
2
|
9
|
41
|
36
|
50
|
4
|
1
|
.268
|
.339
|
.411
|
.750
|
12
|
8
|
105
|
302
|
37
|
77
|
14
|
1
|
7
|
36
|
31
|
45
|
3
|
1
|
.253
|
.325
|
.377
|
.702
|
11
|
9
|
82
|
215
|
25
|
53
|
10
|
0
|
5
|
24
|
22
|
35
|
3
|
1
|
.245
|
.322
|
.361
|
.683
|
8
|
10
|
75
|
201
|
24
|
49
|
11
|
1
|
4
|
23
|
21
|
32
|
4
|
3
|
.245
|
.321
|
.372
|
.692
|
5
|
11
|
83
|
200
|
21
|
49
|
7
|
1
|
5
|
21
|
21
|
28
|
4
|
1
|
.247
|
.319
|
.360
|
.679
|
4
|
12
|
61
|
158
|
21
|
37
|
6
|
1
|
3
|
17
|
18
|
28
|
4
|
0
|
.233
|
.315
|
.342
|
.657
|
2
|
13
|
54
|
147
|
27
|
41
|
6
|
0
|
6
|
23
|
24
|
22
|
24
|
2
|
.279
|
.379
|
.442
|
.821
|
1
|
14
|
96
|
255
|
49
|
70
|
10
|
3
|
7
|
35
|
43
|
25
|
25
|
8
|
.275
|
.381
|
.420
|
.800
|
1
|
15
|
47
|
43
|
4
|
10
|
2
|
0
|
1
|
6
|
13
|
8
|
2
|
1
|
.233
|
.411
|
.349
|
.760
|
PLAYERS WHO ARE ROOKIES AT AGE 29
|
#
|
Yr
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
SB
|
CS
|
Avg
|
OBA
|
SPct
|
OPS
|
5
|
1
|
124
|
389
|
53
|
105
|
16
|
6
|
10
|
50
|
36
|
56
|
9
|
3
|
.270
|
.330
|
.422
|
.752
|
5
|
2
|
133
|
465
|
59
|
125
|
21
|
5
|
13
|
68
|
38
|
70
|
9
|
6
|
.268
|
.324
|
.423
|
.747
|
5
|
3
|
136
|
481
|
56
|
131
|
21
|
3
|
13
|
59
|
46
|
72
|
8
|
5
|
.273
|
.337
|
.413
|
.751
|
5
|
4
|
137
|
463
|
58
|
119
|
21
|
3
|
11
|
57
|
50
|
71
|
9
|
5
|
.257
|
.330
|
.389
|
.719
|
5
|
5
|
129
|
434
|
52
|
111
|
19
|
3
|
11
|
52
|
39
|
59
|
7
|
3
|
.255
|
.317
|
.389
|
.706
|
5
|
6
|
109
|
324
|
30
|
80
|
13
|
3
|
6
|
38
|
30
|
56
|
5
|
1
|
.247
|
.314
|
.363
|
.678
|
5
|
7
|
108
|
318
|
35
|
78
|
11
|
2
|
9
|
40
|
25
|
44
|
5
|
2
|
.246
|
.300
|
.384
|
.684
|
5
|
8
|
80
|
187
|
20
|
45
|
8
|
1
|
4
|
21
|
18
|
25
|
3
|
1
|
.240
|
.309
|
.357
|
.666
|
3
|
9
|
39
|
59
|
11
|
13
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
5
|
4
|
11
|
1
|
0
|
.220
|
.264
|
.299
|
.564
|
1
|
10
|
65
|
141
|
20
|
34
|
8
|
0
|
2
|
10
|
24
|
14
|
6
|
3
|
.241
|
.352
|
.340
|
.692
|
PLAYERS WHO ARE ROOKIES AT AGE 30
|
#
|
Yr
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
SB
|
CS
|
Avg
|
OBA
|
SPct
|
OPS
|
2
|
1
|
71
|
167
|
24
|
52
|
12
|
2
|
3
|
20
|
8
|
14
|
5
|
1
|
.311
|
.347
|
.452
|
.799
|
2
|
2
|
122
|
336
|
37
|
85
|
19
|
2
|
4
|
39
|
19
|
27
|
7
|
5
|
.251
|
.293
|
.347
|
.640
|
2
|
3
|
113
|
302
|
32
|
78
|
9
|
4
|
4
|
31
|
21
|
20
|
4
|
2
|
.257
|
.303
|
.343
|
.645
|
2
|
4
|
128
|
418
|
41
|
94
|
17
|
1
|
5
|
28
|
22
|
36
|
3
|
3
|
.224
|
.264
|
.303
|
.567
|
2
|
5
|
109
|
247
|
26
|
66
|
7
|
2
|
1
|
19
|
15
|
16
|
4
|
5
|
.266
|
.305
|
.312
|
.617
|
2
|
6
|
119
|
342
|
33
|
82
|
12
|
2
|
1
|
26
|
25
|
21
|
3
|
2
|
.239
|
.292
|
.294
|
.586
|
2
|
7
|
86
|
171
|
16
|
39
|
6
|
0
|
2
|
12
|
12
|
13
|
1
|
2
|
.225
|
.273
|
.287
|
.559
|
2
|
8
|
83
|
189
|
19
|
42
|
7
|
2
|
3
|
19
|
14
|
29
|
0
|
1
|
.222
|
.271
|
.315
|
.586
|
1
|
9
|
62
|
95
|
18
|
23
|
5
|
1
|
3
|
8
|
13
|
19
|
0
|
1
|
.242
|
.333
|
.411
|
.744
|
The two players who were rookies at age 30 were Keith Lockhart and Bob Lillis, and the five who were rookies at age 29 were Jungle Jim Rivera, Dale Long, Gene Michael, Ron Coomer, and the little kid from the movie "42", Ed Charles. Our final chart summarizes the average career totals of the players, by the age at which they were rookies:
|
Rookie Age
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
#
|
G
|
AB
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
SB
|
Avg
|
OBA
|
SPct
|
OPS
|
3
|
18
|
1938
|
6563
|
1793
|
313
|
59
|
135
|
768
|
603
|
757
|
99
|
.273
|
.362
|
.400
|
.762
|
11
|
19
|
2004
|
6842
|
1891
|
320
|
47
|
253
|
990
|
802
|
978
|
140
|
.276
|
.396
|
.448
|
.843
|
48
|
20
|
1988
|
6944
|
1914
|
316
|
52
|
235
|
958
|
744
|
969
|
144
|
.276
|
.390
|
.437
|
.827
|
111
|
21
|
1665
|
5628
|
1518
|
265
|
40
|
163
|
735
|
628
|
819
|
107
|
.270
|
.371
|
.418
|
.789
|
172
|
22
|
1560
|
5352
|
1453
|
250
|
38
|
150
|
682
|
527
|
793
|
116
|
.272
|
.374
|
.417
|
.791
|
202
|
23
|
1393
|
4577
|
1222
|
216
|
30
|
137
|
599
|
468
|
741
|
87
|
.267
|
.373
|
.417
|
.790
|
212
|
24
|
1367
|
4443
|
1181
|
210
|
29
|
119
|
557
|
441
|
693
|
78
|
.266
|
.365
|
.406
|
.771
|
135
|
25
|
1212
|
3878
|
1047
|
185
|
27
|
94
|
472
|
366
|
569
|
68
|
.270
|
.364
|
.404
|
.768
|
67
|
26
|
1155
|
3602
|
957
|
161
|
26
|
82
|
414
|
352
|
558
|
103
|
.266
|
.353
|
.393
|
.746
|
26
|
27
|
1145
|
3665
|
977
|
166
|
30
|
79
|
410
|
324
|
523
|
91
|
.267
|
.356
|
.393
|
.749
|
12
|
28
|
1074
|
3104
|
814
|
150
|
16
|
76
|
367
|
328
|
450
|
64
|
.262
|
.351
|
.394
|
.746
|
5
|
29
|
1015
|
3176
|
820
|
135
|
28
|
82
|
397
|
292
|
472
|
58
|
.258
|
.358
|
.395
|
.753
|
2
|
30
|
898
|
2298
|
570
|
93
|
13
|
24
|
203
|
147
|
192
|
27
|
.248
|
.306
|
.330
|
.636
|