Last year we found that the fifth starters for playoff teams were simply .500 pitchers. This suggested that you didn't need a strong fifth starter in order to succeed. Let's see if that trend continued in 2005:
If you exclude the four best starters on each Major League team in 2005, the average win-loss record of the remaining starters is 14-21 with a 5.37 ERA. Not very good. For playoff teams, the average is 16-16 with a 4.99 ERA. That 16-16 record is identical to 2004's 16-16 for fifth starters on playoff teams. The ERA is close as well with 2004 at 5.25.
Bottom line: To be a contender all you need for your "fifth starters" is .500 pitching.
Here are the numbers for the 2005 playoff teams (starter win-loss records and ERA excluding the top four starters):
Chicago White Sox | 12-11 | 4.90 | (#10 of the 30 MLB teams) |
Los Angels Angels | 15-12 | 4.84 | (#9) |
New York Yankees | 25-27 | 5.70 | (#22) |
Boston Red Sox | 10-11 | 5.10 | (#12) |
Houston Astros | 13-16 | 5.89 | (#23) |
St. Louis Cardinals | 17-10 | 3.49 | (#1) |
Atlanta Braves | 22-21 | 4.35 | (#2) |
San Diego Padres | 12-21 | 5.51 | (#19) |
Average (playoff team) | 16-16 | 4.99 | |
(Top four starters on each team determined as the four pitchers with the lowest opponent OPS among starters with 12+ starts)
For those Chicago Cubs fans out there:
Cubs 14-20, 5.24 ERA (#15)
The worst two teams?
Tampa Bay Devil Rays | 11-28 | 6.80 | (#29) |
Cincinnati Reds | 9-19 | 7.13 | (#30) |