No, I’m not going to talk about that! (much)
Bill James created a method (for details see "Career Targets" in The Bill James Handbook 2009) called "The Favorite Toy" to estimate the probability that a player will achieve a specific career goal like career hits or home runs. The basic components of this are the estimated years remaining in his career and the established level of performance.
This method uses the last three seasons to establish performance level. Let’s hope that all these high performing players are doing so as they have said: honestly.
What is the probability of an active player hitting 700 career Home Runs?
| Alex Rodriguez | 90% |
| Albert Pujols | 19% |
| Adam Dunn | 16% |
| Ryan Howard | 16% |
| Prince Fielder | 9% |
| Jim Thome | 6% |
| Miguel Cabrera | 5% |
| Manny Ramirez | 4% |
| Ken Griffey Jr. | 3% |
A-Rod is pretty much a sure thing. What are the chances of an active player breaking the career home run record of 762 set by (cough) Barry Bonds?
| Alex Rodriguez | 49% |
| Ryan Howard | 9% |
| Albert Pujols | 9% |
| Adam Dunn | 8% |
| Prince Fielder | 3% |
A-Rod basically has a 50-50 chance. Anyone with a chance of 800?
| Alex Rodriguez | 34% |
| Ryan Howard | 5% |
| Albert Pujols | 4% |
| Adam Dunn | 4% |
| Prince Fielder | <1% |
A-Rod still at 34%. Any chance of 900?