This is our sixth annual list of possible breakout players based on Spring Training statistics. We researched the value of Spring Training stats a few years back and it was quite revealing. For the most part, we agree with the common perception that they don't have value. A bad spring training means nothing. An average spring training tells us nothing. Nevertheless, we did find that when a player has an exceptional spring, it does suggest a better than 60% chance they will take their game up a notch. It applies to teams as well.
We define "exceptional spring" as a positive difference between a hitter's spring training slugging percentage and their lifetime slugging percentage of 200 points or more.
We analyzed hitters with both a minimum of 200 career regular season at bats and with a minimum of 40 spring training at bats (through spring training games of Tuesday, March 30) and found the following 18 players.
Possible Breakout Players |
Slugging Percentage 200+ points better in Spring Training |
Hitter, Team | Difference | Spring | Career |
Jose Bautista, Blue Jays | .484 | .884 | .400 |
Mitch Maier, Royals | .436 | .760 | .324 |
Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals | .345 | .824 | .478 |
Colby Rasmus, Cardinals | .316 | .723 | .407 |
Jerry Hairston, Padres | .302 | .675 | .373 |
Delwyn Young, Pirates | .288 | .673 | .385 |
Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks | .283 | .714 | .431 |
Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies | .282 | .756 | .474 |
Hunter Pence, Astros | .272 | .760 | .488 |
Gregg Zaun, Brewers | .262 | .650 | .388 |
Aaron Rowand, Giants | .260 | .708 | .448 |
Nelson Cruz, Rangers | .259 | .732 | .473 |
Justin Upton, Diamondbacks | .254 | .739 | .485 |
Will Venable, Padres | .252 | .679 | .427 |
Alberto Callaspo, Royals | .242 | .646 | .404 |
John Bowker, Giants | .229 | .631 | .402 |
Mike Aviles, Royals | .223 | .651 | .429 |
Mark Kotsay, White Sox | .204 | .617 | .413 |