First guess before looking at the data? Certainly. But how much more often? Is it more often with a full count?
Stat-of-the-Week reader Andrew Karonis asks about what may be the ultimate "foul-ball situation": a full count with the bags loaded and two strikes.
Earlier this year (How well do hitters protect the plate with two strikes? ) we looked at batter performance with two strikes. Overall, hitters do adjust significantly with two strikes to avoid the strikeout. Today's Stat of the Week is an addendum to that as we look at the art of fouling off pitches.
Here's the 2006 Major League Baseball regular season data:
| Situation | Pitches | Fouls | Pct. |
| Less than two strikes | 518,634 | 82,361 | 16% |
| With two strikes | 189,088 | 45,169 | 24% |
| 3-2 count | 32,621 | 9,817 | 30% |
| 3-2 count, bags loaded, 2 outs | 323 | 102 | 32% |
It is significant. Hitters foul off pitches much more often with two strikes, and almost twice as often with a 3-2 count as compared to less than two strikes.
The ultimate situation? Sit back and relax. You can expect a foul ball about a third of the time when there's a 3-2 count, bags loaded, and two outs.