Once again, Steve Garvey is on the Hall of Fame Modern Era ballot and has a chance to be enshrined into Cooperstown. Let’s take a look into his case.
First, let’s address the elephant in room- he doesn’t have the WAR numbers. His career WAR is 38.1 and the average Hall of Fame first baseman has a career WAR of 66.8. Garvey’s fielding metrics were not great but the main reason his WAR is low is simply because he didn’t walk. He averaged 33 walks a season and his OBP is just .035 above his batting average. However, during his playing time getting base hits was the goal and hitting .300 was a significant milestone.
Aside from that, it is also OK to have a different approach at the plate. Garvey’s lack of walks did not come by the way of strikeouts. There is a lot to be said for putting the ball in play and putting pressure on the defense. The 2014 and 2015 Kansas City Royals had the lowest walk totals in the league, but they also didn’t strike out. Those teams went on to win two pennants and a World Championship. Needless to say, this approach worked out pretty well for them. The fact that Garvey didn’t walk should not completely shut him out from Hall of Fame consideration.
Furthermore, when it comes to award and Hall of Fame evaluation, it is valid to utilize context dependent statistics. Values like WAR and wRC+ are context neutral stats and are more predictive. However, context dependent statistics are story telling statistics and an objective way of measuring past performance. For instance, RE24 (Run Expectancy) measures how well hitters are capitalizing on their opportunities but unlike RBIs, it does not give extra credit for hitters that have more of those opportunities. Values like WPA (Win Probability Added) and RE24 are not predictive indicators, so these stats would not be solely relied upon if you were to trade for a player or sign him as a free agent. However, they are objectively measuring what occurred and for the Hall of Fame, we are honoring a player’s actual accomplishments, and utilizing context dependent statistics is a valid approach.
So for the time being, if we can suspend our sole belief on WAR, please consider the following.
Steve Garvey had 200 or more hits in 6 seasons. Every player that has five or more seasons of 200 hits, is in the Hall of Fame, except for Pete Rose (for reasons all too well known), Ichiro Suzuki, Derek Jeter (whom both will be first ballot Hall of Famers, when eligible), and Michael Young. Of course, this tidbit alone is not enough to enshrine Garvey, but it is a starting point.
Let’s compare Garvey’s career numbers to the modern players (from 1960 onwards) from this club.
Player
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS+
|
Kirby Puckett
|
.360
|
.477
|
124
|
Tony Gwynn
|
.388
|
.459
|
132
|
Steve Garvey
|
.329
|
.446
|
117
|
Wade Boggs
|
.415
|
.443
|
131
|
Michael Young
|
.346
|
.441
|
104
|
Derek Jeter
|
.377
|
.440
|
115
|
Pete Rose
|
.375
|
.409
|
118
|
Ichiro Suzuki
|
.355
|
.402
|
107
|
Again, aside from Garvey and Michael Young, the rest of the members of this club are first ballot Hall of Fame talent. As indicated earlier, Garvey has a relatively low OBP and on this list he has the lowest. However, when it comes to Slugging Percentage, aside from Puckett and Gwynn, Garvey has the highest. So, for what he lacked in OBP, he made up for with a little pop.
During Garvey’s apex, he was slugging close to .500. We can take this point a little further and look into his slugging tallies per season. Just like hits are to batting average, total bases are to slugging percentage. Let’s compare the same players and tally the total number of seasons they led the league in hits, total bases (TBs), and extra base hits (XBHs):
Player
|
Top 10 Hits
|
Top 5 TBs
|
Top 10 XBHs
|
Steve Garvey
|
10
|
7
|
7
|
Kirby Puckett
|
10
|
5
|
6
|
Pete Rose
|
17
|
4
|
6
|
Wade Boggs
|
9
|
2
|
3
|
Michael Young
|
8
|
2
|
0
|
Derek Jeter
|
12
|
1
|
2
|
Tony Gwynn
|
12
|
1
|
1
|
Ichiro Suzuki
|
11
|
0
|
0
|
In comparison to these Hall of Fame hitters, Garvey was more among the league leaders in total bases and extra base hits than the others. The takeaway point isn’t that Garvey was necessarily a better hitter, but he was a much different type of hitter. Since he had multiple 200 hit seasons, some tend to think of him as a singles hitter and compare him to others in the 3000-hit club. But Garvey was actually more of a line drive extra base hitter than a singles hitter.
Let’s do the same comparison among 1B/OF/DH Hall of Fame inductees from the last 20 years:
Player
|
Top 5 TBs
|
Top 10 TBs
|
Top 10 XBHs
|
Steve Garvey
|
7
|
9
|
7
|
Ken Griffey Jr.
|
6
|
9
|
9
|
Vladimir Guerrero
|
6
|
8
|
7
|
Dave Winfield
|
3
|
10
|
9
|
Andre Dawson
|
5
|
10
|
8
|
Eddie Murray
|
5
|
10
|
5
|
Jim Rice
|
5
|
9
|
6
|
George Brett*
|
5
|
8
|
11
|
Frank Thomas
|
5
|
8
|
8
|
Kirby Puckett
|
5
|
8
|
6
|
Orlando Cepeda
|
4
|
8
|
9
|
Jeff Bagwell
|
3
|
7
|
6
|
Jim Thome
|
2
|
3
|
3
|
Tony Perez
|
2
|
6
|
7
|
Paul Molitor
|
1
|
5
|
0
|
Edgar Martinez
|
1
|
4
|
4
|
Tim Raines
|
0
|
4
|
1
|
Ricky Henderson
|
0
|
3
|
2
|
Harold Baines
|
0
|
2
|
1
|
Bold Italics- first ballot Hall of Famers
*Yes, George Brett was 3B but unlike other non-1B infielders, his TB and XBH tallies are amongst the tops on this list and being listed for full comparison purposes (and not conveniently hidden).
Among all these Hall of Famers (many of which were first ballot), Steve Garvey has the most Top 5 seasons in Total Bases. He is also in the upper echelon in Top 10 seasons in Total Bases and Extra Base Hits. Again, this is in comparison to Hall of Famers. Yes, there is more to a ballplayer than SLG but this gives us a gauge that during Garvey’s peak his bat was among the best of the best. Garvey was not just a good hitter, he was an ELITE hitter.
From 1974 to 1981, he led all of the majors in total bases (ahead of Schmidt, Rice, and Brett) and was third overall in WPA (behind Schmidt and Carew).
Player*
|
Total Bases
|
Extra Base Hits
|
WPA
|
RE24
|
Steve Garvey
|
2346
|
448
|
28.8
|
271.5
|
Mike Schmidt
|
2320
|
552
|
33.3
|
367.1
|
Jim Rice
|
2192
|
458
|
16.3
|
198.4
|
George Brett
|
2120
|
462
|
28.4
|
249.6
|
Reggie Jackson
|
2049
|
462
|
28.1
|
282.7
|
Rod Carew
|
1945
|
324
|
29.5
|
320.0
|
Joe Morgan
|
1649
|
351
|
26.5
|
320.4
|
*From this period, the Top 4 in each category is listed
From 1974 to 1983, he led all first baseman in home runs, extra base hits and total bases. During that time, he also had the highest WPA and RE24 among first baseman.
First Baseman*
|
Total Bases
|
Home Runs
|
Extra Base Hits
|
WPA
|
RE24
|
Steve Garvey
|
2785
|
200
|
536
|
29.2
|
287.5
|
Cecil Cooper
|
2549
|
193
|
531
|
20.4
|
227.7
|
Chris Chambliss
|
2314
|
145
|
465
|
14.0
|
131.3
|
Tony Perez
|
2036
|
159
|
447
|
11.5
|
130.3
|
Eddie Murray
|
2007
|
198
|
421
|
26.4
|
227.5
|
Keith Hernandez
|
1964
|
90
|
416
|
22.5
|
259.3
|
*80% of games played at 1B
From 1974 to 1985, a twelve-year period, he led all first baseman in total bases and was second in home runs and extra base hits. During that time, he was Top 3 in WPA and RE24 (behind Murray and Hernandez).
First Baseman*
|
Total Bases
|
Home Runs
|
Extra Base Hits
|
WPA
|
RE24
|
Steve Garvey
|
3296
|
225
|
630
|
29.4
|
294.6
|
Cecil Cooper
|
3070
|
220
|
636
|
21.1
|
239.7
|
Eddie Murray
|
2611
|
258
|
548
|
40.2
|
340.6
|
Chris Chambliss
|
2511
|
157
|
498
|
12.6
|
137.2
|
Keith Hernandez
|
2466
|
115
|
510
|
31.6
|
340.1
|
*80% of games played at 1B
It is thought that Garvey had just a great 8-year peak, but actually he was a major contributor for 12 years.
Concerning the Hall of Fame, Kirby Puckett and Jim Rice are recent inductees that were elected for their peak performance and so happened to be players that weren’t known for taking a base on balls as well. A comparison of each player’s best ten year stretch with context dependent stats, win probability and run expectancy:
Player
|
PAs
|
WPA
|
RE24
|
Steve Garvey (1974-1983)
|
6417
|
29.2
|
287.5
|
Kirby Puckett
(1986-1995)
|
6504
|
26.5
|
294.4
|
Jim Rice
(1977-1986)
|
6517
|
24.3
|
264.6
|
Yes, Kirby Puckett was more of an all-around player and did more than just hit, and that’s why he’s a first ballot Hall of Famer. This argument is for Garvey as a potential post-BBWAA third tier inductee.
During Steve Garvey’s time with the Dodgers, the team greatly benefited from his performance. From 1974 to 1981, the Dodgers won 4 pennants and 1 World Championship. Throughout this run, Garvey led the team in just about every offensive category including all three slash line totals- Hits, Times on Base, and Total Bases. Yes, the guy who never walked led the team in Times on Base. Understood, for each season he may not have been the best hitter on the team, but he was the certainly the most stable and consistent for the franchise. Same goes for Derek Jeter and the Yankees run. Year after year, Jeter was not their best hitter, but nonetheless he was one of the cornerstones of the franchise. Same for Garvey.
Furthermore, in the postseason is when Garvey truly shined. During the Dodgers’ postseason runs, Garvey led the team overall in Hits and Home Runs.
In the 1974 postseason, Garvey had the team’s highest WPA (Win Probability Added). That team made the World Series.
In 1978 National League Championship Series, Garvey had the most RBIs and HRs on the team and was the LCS MVP. That team made the World Series.
In 1981, again Garvey had the highest postseason WPA on the team. That Dodger team won the World Series.
And lastly in 1984, Garvey was on the Padres. He was past his peak prime, but nonetheless in the NLCS, he once again had the team’s highest WPA and once again was the LCS MVP. That Padres team made it to the franchise’s first World Series.
Despite the low WAR numbers, there is no doubt that Garvey was a significant cog (arguably the most significant) during the Dodgers championship run and had outstanding postseason performances. Garvey was fortunate to have played on great teams, but not only made the most of that opportunity, his overall performance made a critical impact on his teams’ successes.
Now getting back to Garvey’s approach at the plate. He was a player that didn’t strike out a lot and had great potential for extra base hits. That is a combination for winning baseball. To prove that point, we do not have to look any further than this year’s World Series and the last three World Champions:
Team
|
Strikeouts (Team Rank)*
|
Total Bases (Team Rank)*
|
Results
|
2017 Astros
|
1087 (30th)
|
2681 (1st)
|
World Champs
|
2018 Red Sox
|
1253 (26th)
|
2550 (1st)
|
World Champs
|
2019 Astros
|
1166 (30th)
|
2781 (2nd)
|
AL Champs
|
2019 Nationals
|
1308 (27th)
|
2505 (8th)
|
World Champs
|
*During this time period, there are 30 MLB teams total
Each of these teams had a knack for not striking out and getting extra bases. The team results speak for themselves.
On an individual level and to get a sense on how this approach at the plate can convey to greatness, we can filter through the players who have numbers equal or better than Garvey in this respect. For his career Garvey had 3941 total bases and 1003 strikeouts. From the players that had 3900 total bases or more, and fewer than 1150 strikeouts for their career- there are only 37 players in the history of baseball. Of these 37 players, all of them are in the Hall of Fame except for four- Ichiro (who will be), Garvey, Al Oliver and Rusty Staub.
For players who played from 1950 and onwards:
Player
|
SLG
|
PAs
|
Strike Outs
|
Total Bases
|
Clutch
|
Vladimir Guerrero
|
.553
|
9059
|
985
|
4506
|
-2.1
|
Billy Williams
|
.493
|
10519
|
1046
|
4599
|
DNA*
|
George Brett
|
.487
|
11625
|
908
|
5044
|
5.8
|
Al Kaline
|
.480
|
11596
|
1020
|
4852
|
DNA
|
Tony Gwynn
|
.459
|
10232
|
434
|
4259
|
9.9
|
Al Oliver
|
.451
|
9778
|
756
|
4083
|
0.5
|
Steve Garvey
|
.446
|
9466
|
1003
|
3941
|
3.0
|
Roberto Alomar
|
.443
|
10400
|
1140
|
4018
|
-0.2
|
Wade Boggs
|
.443
|
10740
|
745
|
4064
|
-2.0
|
Rusty Staub
|
.431
|
11229
|
888
|
4185
|
2.1
|
Rod Carew
|
.429
|
10550
|
1028
|
3998
|
5.0
|
Joe Morgan
|
.427
|
11329
|
1015
|
3962
|
-0.1
|
Pete Rose
|
.409
|
15890
|
1143
|
5752
|
9.5
|
Ichiro Suzuki
|
.402
|
10734
|
1080
|
3994
|
7.0
|
Brooks Robinson
|
.401
|
11782
|
990
|
4270
|
DNA
|
*DNA- the full amount of data is not available
Admittedly, this is cherry picking to Garvey’s strengths. But with Garvey’s game, evaluating his career is a little more ambiguous. There are no magic numbers for his style of play and as stated earlier, his WAR numbers do not help. Therefore, utilizing this filtering method helps convey his otherwise hidden talent of putting the ball in play with a great potential for extra bases. Not to mention, he did well in his career in high leverage situations (as indicated by the career Clutch statistic listed in the table).
Concerning this statistic, there are many that don’t believe in a player being clutch. But the clutch statistic is based on objective measures like WPA and Leverage Index. This statistic compares a player against himself by measuring how much better (or worse) a player does in high leverage situations. In a single season, a Clutch of 2.0 is considered excellent. This is another context dependent stat that is not predictive but is story telling. Moreover, just like with any statistic, the more data, the more weight it holds.
Lastly, to quickly address another elephant in the room- in Baseball-Reference.com, Garvey’s similarity score is to Garrett Anderson. Keeping context in mind:
Player
|
Plate Appearances
|
WPA
|
RE24
|
Steve Garvey
|
9466
|
27.2
|
275
|
Garrett Anderson
|
9177
|
2.3
|
71.2
|
Similar batters sure, but for their career…not the same impact.
To summarize Garvey’s Hall of Fame candidacy:
· During his 8-year peak, he was one of the best hitters in the majors and the best slugger at his position.
· For a decade, he was the very top run producer at his position. For a 12-year period, he was Top 3.
· From 1974 to 1982, Garvey led the Dodgers in Hits, Times on Base, and Total Bases. He was the cornerstone for the franchise that won 4 pennants in 8 years, and one World Championship.
· Garvey performed exceptionally well in the postseason. He played in five World Series and won the National League Championship MVP twice. In four of the five World Series runs, he was a major factor in his teams’ October successes.
· Finally, and not mentioned previously, durability and reliability. Steve Garvey holds the National League record for most consecutive games played with 1,207 from 1975 to 1983. In addition, Garvey holds the National League record for most consecutive errorless games with 193 from 1983 to 1985. Both records are no small achievements and noteworthy.
Bill James recently tweeted "There may be no such thing as a clutch hitter, but I’ll take my chances with David Ortiz." I bet long time Dodgers fans would say the same for Garvey.
Special thanks to Matt Brody and Dave Fleming. All source data was obtained from Baseball-Reference.com. Twitter: @pgups6