Super Bowl Predictor System

January 31, 2014

After correctly predicting the Super Bowl winner 90 percent of the time over a 20-year period, the Super Bowl Predictor System is ready for mothballs.

Why is that?

Just like many of you, I am a fan of a specific team. I haven’t missed a Chicago Bears game since the start of Walter Payton’s career. In January of 2007 the Bears were going to the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl Predictor System said the Bears were an overwhelming favorite. The Chicago media was all over this.

Except, Peyton Manning had something to say about it. Despite an opening kickoff return for a touchdown by the Bears’ Devin Hester, Manning led the Colts to an upset victory.

I should have quit while I was ahead. That Bears' Super Bowl launched a performance slump where the Predictor System has missed five of the last seven Super Bowls. The overall record of the system is down to a 64 percent success rate. Not horrible, but with its recent record, here’s what I have to say: Sayonara.

For those of you who still want to know what the system says, it says that Manning is going to lose again. But I ain’t gonna bet against him a second time. The Seahawks won 7 of the 12 predictors, with two going to the Broncos, and three ties. The details:

Category Win% Team with Advantage
Points Scored .553 Broncos
Points Allowed .617 Seahawks
Point Differential .617 Broncos
Fewer Net Passing Yards .596 Seahawks
Rushing Yards .532 Seahawks
Rushing Yards/Carry .553 Seahawks
Opponent Net Passing Yards .553 Seahawks
Opponent Rushing Yards .596 Tie
Opponent Rushing Yards/Carry .574 Tie
Opponent Total Yards/Game .638 Seahawks
Turnover Differential .574 Seahawks
Regular Season Record .532 Tie


For old times sake, here’s how the system is designed to work. Each of the 12 predictors predicts the Super Bowl winner correctly 53 percent to 64 percent of the time. When taken together they have a greater success rate. However, now for the first time since we started the system, there is one stat that is just as successful as the 12 indicators put together. It’s Fewer Opponent Total Yards, which has predicted the winner 30 out of 47 times (64 percent). This too suggests that the Seahawks, the better defensive team, are going to win.

I’m picking the Broncos.


COMMENTS (8 Comments, most recent shown first)

Reminds me of "Keys to financial Sucess" :

1. Get married and stay married:
2. Don't buy stocks just before a bear market
10:16 AM Feb 5th
Don't give up so easily on your system. I have such confidence in it, I'm willing to give Denver and 34 1/2 points to anyone who wants it.
2:31 PM Feb 4th
Looks like your method is back on track. Now if only the Mariners could get their head out of----,,@#@%&. We could have fun here in Seattle.
10:36 PM Feb 2nd
[quote]rgregory1956: Better to lose money than a wife. [/quote]

Trust me, they go hand-in-hand.

3:58 PM Jan 31st
I think your system is ok, but you need to add one more step: if the differences aren't large enough to give a clear answer, skip the race. That's the single largest factor between successful horse players and pawn shop regulars; it trumps the combined effects of every other factor.
3:48 PM Jan 31st

Better to lose money than a wife.

2:28 PM Jan 31st
Steven Goldleaf
Bob--you're going to sit there and hope you lose money? I hope you're not betting too much.
1:27 PM Jan 31st

I have to be very careful with my leanings. After Derek Jeter, Peyton Manning is my wife's heartthrob. Seattle is where my daughter and intended are planning on living after graduation. I have to be very judicious. But I have stumbled on a compromise that seems to satisfy all concerned: I'm rooting for the Broncos, but betting on the Seahawks. That's me, the fence straddler.
12:30 PM Jan 31st
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