My favorite one to bring up when people start their yearly argument about end-of-season awards is the 1934 American League MVP selection. That was the year Lou Gehrig won the Triple Crown, with firty-nine homeruns, 166 RBI, and a .363 batting average. His WAR, unknown at the time, was 10.1.
The trophy went to Mickey Cochrane, who hit two homeruns and drove in 75 runs. Cochrane made 110 starts that year, which wasn’t quite as many as the Iron Horse. Cochrane’s WAR was 4.5
Absurd, of course. A bad selection.
And this is where I turn the tables.
I think Mickey Cochrane deserved the award.
Cochrane didn’t quite match Gehrig as a hitter, of course. But Cochrane wasn’t a slouch with the bat: he had a .428 on-base percentage in 1934, and was probably in a dead-heat with Bill Dickey and Gabby Hartnett for the best hitting catcher in the game. Cochrane was certainly a more impactful defensive player than Gehrig: catcher is harder to play than first, and it was considerably harder in 1934, when they played with gloves made from old milk cartons and cigarette ash found under the cheap seats.
Cochrane other contribution was in his role as player-manager of the big cats. He took the helm of the Tigers and immediately turned the team around, swinging the club’s W-L record from 75-79 to 101-53.
The team’s roster – it feels worth noting – did not change significantly between 1933 and 1934. This was at a moment when baseball operated as a polite serfdom, and it was the peak of the Great Depression. The two significant changes to the Detroit roster were Mickey Cochrane replacing Ray Hayworth at catcher, and Mickey Cochrane replacing Bucky Harris as manager.
It had an impact.
Should we credit a player-manager with the contributions he makes as a manager? The decision makers of 1934 thought so, and I can’t fault them for that choice. Cochrane took a talented-but-lethargic team and kicked their butts towards an unlikely 100-win season and very nearly a championship: the Tigers were up 3-2 in the World Series, but lost to the Gas House Gang Cardinals in seven.
We can’t quantify Cochrane’s ‘value’ to the 1934 Tigers. But we can’t discount the impact he had – just two homeruns aside - on turning a sub-.500 squad into a century-winning juggernaut.
* * *
Which brings us, belatedly, to Buster Posey: the most obvious parallel to Mickey Cochrane since Mickey Cochrane. Posey has announced his retirement from baseball, and his career merits some consideration.
Consider:
Player
|
G
|
PA
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS+
|
Cochrane
|
1482
|
6211
|
1041
|
1652
|
333
|
119
|
830
|
.320
|
.419
|
.478
|
129
|
Posey
|
1371
|
5607
|
663
|
1500
|
293
|
158
|
729
|
.302
|
.372
|
.460
|
129
|
Very comparable players. Cochrane played in a high offense era, and nets an advantage in batting average. Posey, playing a career in a pitcher’s park, was eighteen points behind Cochrane in batting average, but when contexts are adjusted, they were similar hitters. Same digits to their career batting averages, as it turns out.
Their other commonality - the other trait the two men share - is that both players were winners.
Cochrane played in three World Series with the Athletics, and then found himself fire-saled to Detroit. He immediately led the moribund Tigers franchise to consecutive World Series appearances as catcher-manager. He collected three championships over a short playing career.
And before he had turned twenty-eight, Posey had matched him on the rings. Buster didn’t make it all the way back this year, but he pulled two other Giants squads into the playoffs, including the Cinderella team that is his last.
All of that is a short-and-breezy way to say that I think any hemming and hawing about how to contextualize Buster Posey’s career is probably unnecessary: he is not Thurman Munson good or Gene Tenace good…Posey was GREAT good. He was Mickey Cochrane Good. Roy Campanella Good.
Stepping aside…I think the best metrics still miss a little bit when it comes to catchers: there is just so much that a catcher does that cannot be quantified (calling pitches, communicating between pitcher and manager, adjusting the defense), or can only be quantified with analyses that rely a little more on guesswork than anyone would like to admit (pitch framing, for instance).
I think 50’s baseball writers had it right: a good catcher will be more valuable to a winning team than a good player at any other position.
And there is a reasonable case that Buster Posey is, in fact, the best position player of his generation.
This surprised me, but there’s a case. Miguel Cabrera was born in 1983. Mike Trout was born in 1991. Who was the best position player born in the seven years between them?
- The best position player born in 1984 was Troy Tulowitzski.
- The best position players born in 1985 are Evan Longoria and Josh Donaldson.
- The best position player born in 1986 is Andrew McCutchen.
- Buster Posey was born in 1987, right in the middle of Miggy and Mike. So was Paul Goldschmidt. They are the two best position players born that year.
- The best position player born in 1988 is Starlin Marte. Marte had the best season of his career last year, but I have idea what to make of him, frankly.
- The best position players born in 1989 are Freddie Freeman and Giancarlo Stanton.
- The best position player born in 1990 is Jose Altuve.
Let’s use three systems to determine who has been the best of the lot: Baseball-Reference WAR, FanGraphs WAR, and Win Shares. And to adjust for the reduced playing time for catchers, let’s adjust everyone to a per-600-plate-appearances rate.
Starting with Sean Forman’s Formidable Site:
Player
|
Birth Year
|
PA
|
bWAR
|
bWAR/600
|
Donaldson
|
1985
|
5121
|
44.4
|
5.20
|
Tulowitzki
|
1984
|
5415
|
44.5
|
4.93
|
Goldschmidt
|
1987
|
6300
|
50.8
|
4.84
|
B. Posey
|
1987
|
5607
|
44.9
|
4.80
|
Stanton
|
1989
|
5570
|
44.1
|
4.75
|
Longoria
|
1985
|
7671
|
57.4
|
4.49
|
S. Marte
|
1988
|
4762
|
34.0
|
4.28
|
Altuve
|
1990
|
6346
|
41.4
|
3.91
|
Freeman
|
1989
|
6660
|
43.1
|
3.88
|
McCutchen
|
1986
|
7588
|
45.9
|
3.63
|
Well, that is a surprising answer.
According to Baseball-Reference, the best position player between Miggy and Trout is Josh Donaldson. That makes some sense: Donaldson had a five-year run of very elite production, and he is still a good ballplayer. That said, he has missed significant time: he’s five hundred plate appearances behind Posey, 1200+ behind the other corner infielders, Goldschmidt and Freeman.
Posey ranks fourth by this metric, right between Goldschmidt and Giancarlo Stanton.
What about FanGraphs WAR?
Player
|
Birth Year
|
PA
|
fWAR
|
fWAR/600
|
B. Posey
|
1987
|
5607
|
57.6
|
6.16
|
Donaldson
|
1985
|
5121
|
44.4
|
5.20
|
Stanton
|
1989
|
5570
|
42.3
|
4.56
|
Goldschmidt
|
1987
|
6300
|
46.3
|
4.41
|
Tulowitzski
|
1984
|
5415
|
38.2
|
4.23
|
Longoria
|
1985
|
7671
|
53.5
|
4.18
|
McCutchen
|
1986
|
7588
|
50.8
|
4.02
|
S. Marte
|
1988
|
4762
|
30.7
|
3.87
|
Altuve
|
1990
|
6346
|
40.3
|
3.81
|
Freeman
|
1989
|
6660
|
42.2
|
3.80
|
I think FanGraphs has done some overhaul with their WAR metric recently, and the result has Posey leapfrogging the competition. He isn’t just the best player on the list: he is by far the best player in the group, a win ahead of Donaldson and more than two wins ahead of Freeman and Altuve.
I don’t know that there is a statistical argument that Posey is really that much more valuable than the other players on the list. I think he is: but I think his value lies in some of the intangible qualities that people used to credit Derek Jeter with possessing.
What’s surprising about both lists is how poorly Freeman and Altuve do on both these lists. If you asked me who feels most like a Hall of Famer from the list above, I’d go with Freeman and Altuve. But the WAR metric is not generous to them.
How about Win Shares?
Player
|
Birth Year
|
PA
|
Win Shares
|
Win Shares/600
|
B. Posey
|
1987
|
5607
|
243
|
26.0
|
Freeman
|
1989
|
6660
|
270
|
24.3
|
Goldschmidt
|
1987
|
6300
|
251
|
23.9
|
Donaldson
|
1985
|
5121
|
204
|
23.9
|
McCutchen
|
1986
|
7588
|
299
|
23.6
|
Altuve
|
1990
|
6346
|
225
|
21.3
|
Stanton
|
1989
|
5570
|
195
|
21.0
|
Tulowitzski
|
1984
|
5415
|
186
|
20.6
|
S. Marte
|
1988
|
4762
|
158
|
19.9
|
Longoria
|
1985
|
7671
|
242
|
18.9
|
Win Shares also rates Posey as the best positional player of his generation, though not as far ahead as FanGraphs.
This list feels a lot better than the other two lists, frankly. I like Evan Longoria and Giancarlo Stanton just fine, but I think Freddie Freeman and Andrew McCutchen have been better players over their careers. Win Shares evaluation aligns more reasonably with my perception of these careers.
And Posey does extremely well by Win Shares. In fact, he rates nearly identical to Cochrane and Campy by Win Shares per 600. A few notable short-career catchers:
Player
|
PA
|
Win Shares
|
WS/600 PA
|
Cochrane
|
6206
|
275
|
26.6
|
B. Posey
|
5607
|
243
|
26.0
|
Campanella
|
4816
|
207
|
25.8
|
Tenace
|
5525
|
231
|
25.1
|
Mauer
|
7960
|
306
|
23.1
|
Munson
|
5903
|
206
|
20.9
|
Mauer loses some ground for his years as a 1B/DH in Minnesota, but as a catcher his peak was comfortably on par with Corchane and Co. And while Thurman Munson probably doesn’t belong in our conversation, Oakland legend Gene Tenace continues to surprise us.
It’s just too bad he wasn’t any kind of winner.
(Checks the records)
Huh. Four rings. Who knew?
Dave Fleming is a writer living in western Virginia. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.