I asked for some help in my last article: I wanted to know how to create a metric that would measure individual strikeout performances across eras, while taking into account each seasons’ proximity to the ‘ceiling’ of potential strikeouts.
Let me try and explain that through a few hypotheticals. Who is the better strikeout pitcher?
Name
|
K%
|
Pitcher A
|
15%
|
Pitcher B
|
20%
|
Absent any other context, all of us would say that Pitcher B is the better strikeout pitcher. He is, after all, striking out a greater percentage of the hitters he faces.
But if we add some contexts, we muddy the waters a little bit. How does these guys compare to their peers in the league? Who is the better strikeout pitcher now?
Name
|
K%
|
Lg. K%
|
Pitcher A
|
15%
|
5%
|
Pitcher B
|
20%
|
10%
|
Most of us would say that Pitcher A is the better strikeout pitcher, because he’s managed to triple the league’s average. Pitcher B struck out more hitters overall, but he’s not quite as far ahead of the league as Pitcher A. If you listed each pitcher by Adjusted Strikeout Percentage (K%+), Pitcher A would have a K%+ mark of 300, meaning that he was three times the league average. Pitcher B would score a 200 K%+.
So that’s one context out of the way, the league context. The best pitchers today have strikeout rates that exceed anything Walter Johnson or Sandy Koufax ever accomplished: that doesn’t mean that they were better strikeout pitchers than Walter Johnson or Sandy Koufax. They just happen to pitch in an era more favorable to strikeouts. Adjusting for league context helps us get a better picture.
But what about this case?
Name
|
K%
|
Lg. K%
|
Pitcher A
|
30%
|
15%
|
Pitcher B
|
50%
|
25%
|
Both pitchers would have the same Adjusted Strikeout Percentage: 200. They’ve both doubled the league average.
Are they the same?
I think that most of us would agree that they’re not the same. While both pitchers have doubled the strikeout rates in their respective leagues, Pitcher B is striking out more batters overall. He has doubled his league’s strikeout rate in an era of more strikeouts. He is pitching closer to the maximum ceiling of this metric. It’s a fair bit harder to double a 25% strikeout percentage than it is to double a 15% strikeout percentage.
Let me phrase that a little differently, just so we’re all following this point. The maximum K%+ that Pitcher A could tally is 667. If he struck out every single batter he faced, his percentage would be six-point-six-seven times the league average.
If Pitcher B did the exact same thing, his Adjusted Strikeout Percentage would be only 400, or four times the league average. He can’t do any better than that, because the league is much closer to the ceiling. He can’t strike out 150% of the batters he faces, not unless he knows how to warp spacetime.
I asked how to account for this ‘ceiling’ issue, and the ever-brilliant Tom Tango provided the answer. He said that I should use something called the Odds Ratio Method, which consists of calculating the odds that an event will occur in a league and for an individual player, and dividing the two decimals.
Let’s do Player A:
Name
|
K%
|
Lg. K%
|
Pitcher A
|
30%
|
15%
|
League Odds = League K% / (Ceiling of Metric – League K%)
Pitcher Odds = Pitcher K% / (Ceiling of Metric – Pitcher K%)
League Odds = .15 / (1.00 – .15)
Pitcher Odds = .30 / (1.00 – .30)
League Odds = .17647
Pitcher Odds = .42857
Pitcher Odds / League Odds = .42857 / .17647 = 2.43
Pitcher A has an Odds Ratio K% of 2.43. How about Pitcher B?
Name
|
K%
|
Lg. K%
|
Pitcher B
|
50%
|
25%
|
League Odds = .25 / (1 – .25)
Pitcher Odds = .50 / (1 – .50)
League Odds = .3333
Pitcher Odds = 1.0000
Pitcher Odds / League Odds = 1 / .3333 = 3.00
So we get:
Name
|
K%
|
Lg. K%
|
Odds Ratio K%
|
Pitcher A
|
30%
|
15%
|
2.43
|
Pitcher B
|
50%
|
25%
|
3.00
|
Both pitchers have the same ratio of strikeouts relative to their league. But Pitcher B rates as the better strikeout pitcher, because we’re now adjusting for his league being closer to the absolute ceiling for strikeouts.
* * *
Just an aside: this kind of stuff is really satisfying for me. I’ve been wondering how to understand strikeout rates better than by just adjusting for league contexts for a little while, just tinkering with different kinds of equations and not really getting anywhere.
This math takes us a step closer to a good answer. That’s really satisfying, to know that we can adjust for the ceiling of any metric. We can do this for most stats…we can it for batting average or slugging percentage just as easily as we do it for strikeout percentages. That’s really handy. It’s great.
And…it’s not perfect. We’re on our way to fixing for one little variable, but there is nothing perfect about this metric. For one thing, we’re invariably counting the pitcher’s individual strikeouts among the league’s strikeouts…the league average that we’re about to use is going to include the individual pitchers who we’ll look at. So…that’s not perfect.
And there are other reasons it isn’t perfect. I’m sure a lot of you will point out the many ways that this metric is flawed. I get that, and I agree with that. I’m not trying to suggest we’re at a solution; I’m just celebrating the little step. I’m excited that there is a mathematical solution to one small problem; to one strand in the wider tapestry we are trying our best to see.
* * *
Let’s try and use this technique to answer a real-life question: who had the best strikeout season in baseball history?
How do we figure that out?
First we have to settle on a variable. We can use strikeout percentage (K%), or strikeouts-per-nine (K/9). Which one is more accurate to the question at hand?
Just my two cents, I like K/9 IP a little better than strikeout percentage, at least for this specific question. Nolan Ryan struck out a lot of guys, but he also walked a ton of guys…if you go by his percentage of strikeouts, those walks are going to hurt him, because they are plate appearances that don’t end in strikeouts. If you go by strikeouts-per-nine, those walks won’t matter.
Mid-seventies Nolan Ryan wasn’t the greatest pitcher of his era, but he was pretty obviously a terrific strikeout pitcher. I think K/9 reflects that a little better than K%. Same holds for a pitcher like Sam McDowell and Bob Feller. Same holds for a lot of strikeout pitchers, frankly. There is a big correlation between getting a lot of strikeouts and giving up a lot of walks. I don’t want to penalize walks.
Can we use the Odds Ratio Metric for stikeouts-per-nine innings?
Sure. We just have to change the limit. The ceiling for K% is 100%, or 1.00. The ceiling for K/9 IP is 27.
Or…it’s actually a little more than 27. Technically, the limit of K/9 is infinite. If you had an impossibly bad catcher behind the plate, it would be possible for a pitcher to strike out an infinite number of batters per nine innings. But the realistic limit of the metric is 27.
What’s next?
Every pitching season in baseball history is a gigantic database, and I’m not really interested in plugging in the league data for every season. How about looking at the annual league leaders in strikeouts-per-nine innings pitched?
After all, we’re looking for the best strikeout seasons ever….you can’t reasonably claim ‘best strikeout season’ if you didn’t pace your league in K/9. We shouldn’t miss any big-time strikeout pitchers if we go by the K/9 leaders.
There have been 117 seasons since the American League joined the National League in 1901. That gives us a sample of 234 pitching seasons:
Year
|
National League
|
K/9
|
American League
|
K/9
|
1901
|
Tom Hughes
|
6.57
|
Ned Garvin
|
4.27
|
1902
|
Doc White
|
5.44
|
Rube Waddell
|
6.84
|
1903
|
Christy Mathewson
|
6.56
|
Rube Waddell
|
8.39
|
1904
|
Hooks Wiltse
|
5.74
|
Rube Waddell
|
8.20
|
1905
|
Red Ames
|
6.78
|
Rube Waddell
|
7.86
|
1906
|
Red Ames
|
6.91
|
Rube Waddell
|
6.47
|
1907
|
Red Ames
|
5.63
|
Rube Waddell
|
7.34
|
1908
|
Orval Overall
|
6.68
|
Rube Waddell
|
7.31
|
1909
|
Orval Overall
|
6.47
|
Heinie Berger
|
5.90
|
1910
|
Louis Drucke
|
6.31
|
Walter Johnson
|
7.61
|
1911
|
Rube Marquard
|
7.68
|
Smoky Joe Wood
|
7.54
|
1912
|
Pete Alexander
|
5.66
|
Walter Johnson
|
7.39
|
1913
|
Jeff Tesreau
|
5.33
|
Walter Johnson
|
6.32
|
1914
|
Ben Tincup
|
6.27
|
Dutch Leonard
|
7.05
|
1915
|
Pete Alexander
|
5.76
|
Dutch Leonard
|
5.70
|
1916
|
Larry Cheney
|
5.91
|
Walter Johnson
|
5.55
|
1917
|
Hippo Vaughn
|
5.94
|
Walter Johnson
|
5.19
|
1918
|
Hippo Vaughn
|
4.59
|
Guy Morton
|
5.16
|
1919
|
Hod Eller
|
4.97
|
Allen Russell
|
4.80
|
1920
|
Al Mamaux
|
4.77
|
Doc Ayers
|
4.44
|
1921
|
Burleigh Grimes
|
4.05
|
Walter Johnson
|
4.88
|
1922
|
Dazzy Vance
|
4.91
|
Guy Morton
|
4.53
|
1923
|
Dazzy Vance
|
6.33
|
Syl Johnson
|
4.75
|
1924
|
Dazzy Vance
|
7.65
|
Walter Johnson
|
5.12
|
1925
|
Dazzy Vance
|
7.50
|
Lefty Grove
|
5.30
|
1926
|
Dazzy Vance
|
7.46
|
Lefty Grove
|
6.77
|
1927
|
Dazzy Vance
|
6.06
|
Lefty Grove
|
5.97
|
1928
|
Dazzy Vance
|
6.42
|
George Earnshaw
|
6.65
|
1929
|
Pat Malone
|
5.60
|
Lefty Grove
|
5.56
|
1930
|
Bill Hallahan
|
6.71
|
Lefty Grove
|
6.46
|
1931
|
Dazzy Vance
|
6.17
|
Bump Hadley
|
6.21
|
1932
|
Dizzy Dean
|
6.01
|
Red Ruffing
|
6.60
|
1933
|
Dizzy Dean
|
6.11
|
Lefty Gomez
|
6.25
|
1934
|
Paul Dean
|
5.79
|
Red Ruffing
|
5.23
|
1935
|
Van Mungo
|
6.01
|
Johnny Allen
|
6.09
|
1936
|
Van Mungo
|
6.87
|
Johnny Allen
|
6.11
|
1937
|
Van Mungo
|
6.82
|
Lefty Gomez
|
6.27
|
1938
|
Carl Hubbell
|
5.23
|
Bob Feller
|
7.78
|
1939
|
Mort Cooper
|
5.55
|
Bob Feller
|
7.46
|
1940
|
Cliff Melton
|
4.91
|
Bob Feller
|
7.33
|
1941
|
Johnny Vander Meer
|
8.03
|
Bob Feller
|
6.82
|
1942
|
Johnny Vander Meer
|
6.86
|
Hal Newhouser
|
5.05
|
1943
|
Johnny Vander Meer
|
5.42
|
Allie Reynolds
|
6.84
|
1944
|
Max Lanier
|
5.66
|
Hal Newhouser
|
5.39
|
1945
|
Preacher Roe
|
5.67
|
Hal Newhouser
|
6.09
|
1946
|
Kirby Higbe
|
5.73
|
Hal Newhouser
|
8.46
|
1947
|
Ewell Blackwell
|
6.36
|
Bob Feller
|
5.90
|
1948
|
Harry Brecheen
|
5.75
|
Lou Brissie
|
5.89
|
1949
|
Don Newcombe
|
5.49
|
Tommy Byrne
|
5.92
|
1950
|
Ewell Blackwell
|
6.48
|
Early Wynn
|
6.02
|
1951
|
Mel Queen
|
6.58
|
Mickey McDermott
|
6.65
|
1952
|
Vinegar Bend Mizell
|
6.92
|
Mickey McDermott
|
6.50
|
1953
|
Vinegar Bend Mizell
|
6.94
|
Billy Pierce
|
6.17
|
1954
|
Harvey Haddix
|
6.38
|
Billy Pierce
|
7.06
|
1955
|
Sam Jones
|
7.37
|
Herb Score
|
9.70
|
1956
|
Sam Jones
|
8.40
|
Herb Score
|
9.49
|
1957
|
Sam Jones
|
7.59
|
Bob Turley
|
7.76
|
1958
|
Sam Jones
|
8.10
|
Camilo Pascual
|
7.41
|
1959
|
Don Drysdale
|
8.05
|
Herb Score
|
8.23
|
1960
|
Sandy Koufax
|
10.13
|
Jim Bunning
|
7.18
|
1961
|
Sandy Koufax
|
9.47
|
Juan Pizarro
|
8.69
|
1962
|
Sandy Koufax
|
10.55
|
Juan Pizarro
|
7.66
|
1963
|
Jim Maloney
|
9.53
|
Al Downing
|
8.76
|
1964
|
Sandy Koufax
|
9.00
|
Sam McDowell
|
9.19
|
1965
|
Sandy Koufax
|
10.24
|
Sam McDowell
|
10.71
|
1966
|
Sandy Koufax
|
8.83
|
Sam McDowell
|
10.42
|
1967
|
Gary Nolan
|
8.18
|
Luis Tiant
|
9.23
|
1968
|
Bill Singer
|
7.97
|
Sam McDowell
|
9.47
|
1969
|
Tom Griffin
|
9.56
|
Sam McDowell
|
8.81
|
1970
|
Tom Seaver
|
8.76
|
Sam McDowell
|
8.97
|
1971
|
Tom Seaver
|
9.08
|
Vida Blue
|
8.68
|
1972
|
Tom Seaver
|
8.55
|
Nolan Ryan
|
10.43
|
1973
|
Tom Seaver
|
7.79
|
Nolan Ryan
|
10.57
|
1974
|
Tom Seaver
|
7.67
|
Nolan Ryan
|
9.93
|
1975
|
John Montefusco
|
7.94
|
Frank Tanana
|
9.41
|
1976
|
Tom Seaver
|
7.80
|
Nolan Ryan
|
10.35
|
1977
|
Jerry Koosman
|
7.62
|
Nolan Ryan
|
10.26
|
1978
|
J.R. Richard
|
9.90
|
Nolan Ryan
|
9.97
|
1979
|
J.R. Richard
|
9.64
|
Nolan Ryan
|
9.01
|
1980
|
Mario Soto
|
8.61
|
Len Barker
|
6.83
|
1981
|
Steve Carlton
|
8.48
|
Dave Righetti
|
7.60
|
1982
|
Mario Soto
|
9.57
|
Dave Righetti
|
8.02
|
1983
|
Steve Carlton
|
8.73
|
Floyd Bannister
|
7.99
|
1984
|
Dwight Gooden
|
11.40
|
Mark Langston
|
8.16
|
1985
|
Sid Fernandez
|
9.51
|
Floyd Bannister
|
8.46
|
1986
|
Mike Scott
|
10.00
|
Mark Langston
|
9.21
|
1987
|
Nolan Ryan
|
11.48
|
Mark Langston
|
8.67
|
1988
|
Nolan Ryan
|
9.33
|
Roger Clemens
|
9.92
|
1989
|
Mark Langston
|
8.92
|
Nolan Ryan
|
11.32
|
1990
|
David Cone
|
9.91
|
Nolan Ryan
|
10.24
|
1991
|
David Cone
|
9.32
|
Nolan Ryan
|
10.56
|
1992
|
David Cone
|
9.79
|
Randy Johnson
|
10.31
|
1993
|
Jose Rijo
|
7.94
|
Randy Johnson
|
10.86
|
1994
|
Andy Benes
|
9.87
|
Randy Johnson
|
10.67
|
1995
|
Hideo Nomo
|
11.10
|
Randy Johnson
|
12.35
|
1996
|
John Smoltz
|
9.79
|
Roger Clemens
|
9.53
|
1997
|
Pedro Martinez
|
11.37
|
Randy Johnson
|
12.30
|
1998
|
Kerry Wood
|
12.58
|
Roger Clemens
|
10.39
|
1999
|
Randy Johnson
|
12.06
|
Pedro Martinez
|
13.21
|
2000
|
Randy Johnson
|
12.56
|
Pedro Martinez
|
11.78
|
2001
|
Randy Johnson
|
13.41
|
Hideo Nomo
|
10.00
|
2002
|
Randy Johnson
|
11.56
|
Pedro Martinez
|
10.79
|
2003
|
Kerry Wood
|
11.35
|
Pedro Martinez
|
9.93
|
2004
|
Oliver Perez
|
10.98
|
Johan Santana
|
10.46
|
2005
|
Mark Prior
|
10.15
|
Johan Santana
|
9.25
|
2006
|
Jake Peavy
|
9.56
|
Johan Santana
|
9.44
|
2007
|
Jake Peavy
|
9.67
|
Erik Bedard
|
10.93
|
2008
|
Tim Lincecum
|
10.51
|
A.J. Burnett
|
9.39
|
2009
|
Tim Lincecum
|
10.43
|
Justin Verlander
|
10.09
|
2010
|
Tim Lincecum
|
9.79
|
Jon Lester
|
9.74
|
2011
|
Zack Greinke
|
10.54
|
Brandon Morrow
|
10.19
|
2012
|
Gio Gonzalez
|
9.35
|
Max Scherzer
|
11.08
|
2013
|
A.J. Burnett
|
9.85
|
Yu Darvish
|
11.89
|
2014
|
Clayton Kershaw
|
10.85
|
Chris Sale
|
10.76
|
2015
|
Clayton Kershaw
|
11.64
|
Chris Sale
|
11.82
|
2016
|
Jose Fernandez
|
12.49
|
Michael Pineda
|
10.61
|
2017
|
Max Scherzer
|
12.35
|
Chris Sale
|
12.83
|
That’s a long list, so let’s get cracking.
Year
|
National League
|
K/9
|
Lg. K/9
|
1901
|
Tom Hughes
|
6.57
|
3.83
|
1902
|
Doc White
|
5.44
|
3.52
|
1903
|
Christy Mathewson
|
6.56
|
3.44
|
Hold on a second….
We’re measuring these pitchers against the league’s overall K/9 rate. Does it makes more sense to use the league’s overall strikeout rate, or the strikeout rate among starting pitchers?
Year
|
National League
|
K/9
|
Lg. K/9
|
Lg. SP K/9
|
1901
|
Tom Hughes
|
6.57
|
3.83
|
3.83
|
1902
|
Doc White
|
5.44
|
3.52
|
3.52
|
1903
|
Christy Mathewson
|
6.56
|
3.44
|
3.44
|
No difference there: the league strikeout rate at the turn of last century was essentially the same as the starter’s strikeout rate, because a) pitchers mostly stayed in games, and b) relief pitchers were typically the worst guys on the staff.
But what happens if we extend that into modern times?
Year
|
National League
|
SO9
|
Lg. K/9
|
Lg. SP K/9
|
1901
|
Tom Hughes
|
6.57
|
3.83
|
3.83
|
1902
|
Doc White
|
5.44
|
3.52
|
3.52
|
1903
|
Christy Mathewson
|
6.56
|
3.44
|
3.44
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
…
|
2012
|
Gio Gonzalez
|
9.35
|
7.69
|
7.28
|
2013
|
A.J. Burnett
|
9.85
|
7.49
|
7.19
|
2014
|
Clayton Kershaw
|
10.85
|
7.78
|
7.36
|
For modern pitchers, there’s a big difference between the overall strikeout rate and the strikeout rate among starting pitchers, because relief pitchers strike out a high percentage of hitters in today’s game. If we stick with overall K/9, we’re going to diminish some of the distance that elite strikeout starters have over their peers.
So we’re going to use the K/9 rate of starters in our math:
Year
|
National League
|
K/9
|
SP K/9
|
Odds Ratio K/9
|
1901
|
Tom Hughes
|
6.57
|
3.83
|
1.94
|
1902
|
Doc White
|
5.44
|
3.52
|
1.68
|
1903
|
Christy Mathewson
|
6.56
|
3.44
|
2.20
|
1904
|
Hooks Wiltse
|
5.74
|
3.54
|
1.79
|
1905
|
Red Ames
|
6.78
|
3.65
|
2.15
|
1906
|
Red Ames
|
6.91
|
3.76
|
2.12
|
1907
|
Red Ames
|
5.63
|
3.51
|
1.76
|
So we get a list that looks a lot like this.
Red Ames is our first standout. I hadn’t ever heard of him before, but he was a high-strikeout, high-walk pitcher for the Giants. He holds the ‘modern’ record for most wild pitches in a single-season (30), not counting pre-1901 pitchers. Ames had a reputation as a tough-luck pitcher…as a pitcher who lost games he should have won. I wonder if there is a correlation between being a wild, walk-prone pitcher and having that reputation. Ryan had that reputation, at least for a while. People chalked his W-L record up to bad teams.
I’ll post the whole list at the bottom of the article. What I thought I’d do first is look at the top-five Odds Ratio K/9 seasons of each decade, and then look at the top-20 seasons overall. So let’s do that.
Red Ames, it turns out, wasn’t the strikeout star of the first decade of World Series baseball.
Year
|
Lg.
|
Pitcher
|
K/9
|
SP K/9
|
Odds Ratio K/9
|
1902
|
AL
|
Rube Waddell
|
6.84
|
2.54
|
3.27
|
1903
|
AL
|
Rube Waddell
|
8.39
|
3.87
|
2.69
|
1904
|
AL
|
Rube Waddell
|
8.20
|
4.08
|
2.45
|
1907
|
AL
|
Rube Waddell
|
7.34
|
3.67
|
2.37
|
1908
|
NL
|
Orval Overall
|
6.68
|
3.37
|
2.31
|
Rube Waddell was. Waddell dominated the strikeout board for this decade: in addition to the top four spots, Waddell lays claim to the 6th, 9th, and 13th best seasons.
It is my opinion that 85% of the ‘Rube’ of George Edward Waddell was exaggerated. Being an effective major league pitcher requires some degree of intelligence, and Waddell’s success suggests that, deliberate or native, he received more than his fair share from the good Lord. The man was simply too good of a pitcher to be the man-child that he is made out to be in the literature about him.
Christie Mathewson and Orval Overall were the two NL’ers who did well in this era. Neither compared to Waddell. Orval Overall is, of course, the quintessential baseball name of that period.
Year
|
Lg.
|
Pitcher
|
SO9
|
SP K/9
|
Odds Ratio K/9
|
1911
|
NL
|
Rube Marquard
|
7.68
|
3.90
|
2.36
|
1910
|
AL
|
Walter Johnson
|
7.61
|
4.21
|
2.13
|
1911
|
AL
|
Smoky Joe Wood
|
7.54
|
4.19
|
2.11
|
1912
|
AL
|
Walter Johnson
|
7.39
|
4.24
|
2.02
|
1914
|
AL
|
Dutch Leonard
|
7.05
|
4.12
|
1.96
|
Another ‘Rube’ tops the list, though Marquard doesn’t blow away the pack quite the same way as Waddell.
One of the tests of this metric is whether it identifies the guys you’d expect to be the best of their generation. Certainly, Walter Johnson qualifies: we’d expect him to show up here, and he appears throughout this decade, as does Old Pete Alexander….not quite ‘old’ then. The 1911 season for Smoky Joe Wood was the year before he won 34 games.
Year
|
Lg.
|
Pitcher
|
SO9
|
SP K/9
|
Odds Ratio K/9
|
1924
|
NL
|
Dazzy Vance
|
7.65
|
2.80
|
3.42
|
1926
|
NL
|
Dazzy Vance
|
7.46
|
2.77
|
3.34
|
1925
|
NL
|
Dazzy Vance
|
7.50
|
2.84
|
3.27
|
1926
|
AL
|
Lefty Grove
|
6.77
|
2.92
|
2.76
|
1928
|
NL
|
Dazzy Vance
|
6.42
|
2.80
|
2.70
|
The 1920’s is basically Dazzy Vance and Lefty Grove, with Walter Johnson making a few appearances.
Dazzy Vance’s 7.65 strikeout rate in 1924, a remarkable total for it’s era, is a strikeout less than the current league average. Just offering that tidbit for context.
Year
|
Lg.
|
Pitcher
|
SO9
|
SP K/9
|
Odds Ratio K/9
|
1938
|
AL
|
Bob Feller
|
7.78
|
3.58
|
2.65
|
1930
|
NL
|
Bill Hallahan
|
6.71
|
3.14
|
2.51
|
1939
|
AL
|
Bob Feller
|
7.46
|
3.65
|
2.44
|
1933
|
NL
|
Dizzy Dean
|
6.11
|
2.92
|
2.41
|
1936
|
NL
|
Van Mungo
|
6.87
|
3.45
|
2.33
|
From Rube to Rube to Dazzy to Dizzy. Bob Feller debuted late into the decade and promptly launched himself to the top of the charts. Lefties Gomez and Grove showed up in the early part of the decade.
Van Mungo was this decade’s wild flamethrower: the SABR
biography of Mungo starts with a quote from Wilbert Robinson, who said that Mungo was, "Another Vance, another Dazzy." He didn’t quite live up to that hype, but he had a few strong years before the walks got too close to the strikeouts.
Year
|
Lg.
|
Pitcher
|
SO9
|
SP K/9
|
Odds Ratio K/9
|
1941
|
NL
|
Johnny Vander Meer
|
8.03
|
3.64
|
2.72
|
1946
|
AL
|
Hal Newhouser
|
8.46
|
4.32
|
2.39
|
1942
|
NL
|
Johnny Vander Meer
|
6.86
|
3.44
|
2.33
|
1943
|
AL
|
Allie Reynolds
|
6.84
|
3.59
|
2.21
|
1940
|
AL
|
Bob Feller
|
7.33
|
3.92
|
2.20
|
Newhouser, Vander Meer, and Feller were the strikeout stars of this decade. The most interesting guy on the list, to me, is Newhouser. While he won the AL MVP awards in 1944 and 1945, his best showing, at least as far as strikeouts go, was 1946, when all the World War II players came back. He came in second in the MVP vote, but was every bit as good a pitcher that year as he was in the earlier seasons. Maybe a bit better.
I don’t think the war cost Vander Meer a shot at the Hall of Fame, but you could make the case if you squinted hard ‘nuff. He was twenty-eight when he went off to join the Navy, coming off three consecutive years where he paced the NL in strikeouts, but also walking a bunch of hitters. Vander Meer was a lefty, and there are plenty of lefties who managed to strike out a lot of hitters as younger players, but didn’t get the control part down until their late twenties. It’s possible that Vander Meer would have had his peak years in 1944 and 1945.
Then again, the Reds weren’t much of a team throughout Vander Meer’s career: they reached the World Series in 1939 and 1940, years when Vander Meer was injured. When he was healthy, he was healthy on a second-rate ballclub. On a winner, Vander Meer might’ve had a few 20-win seasons around the war years, and you could fill in the gap with two big years and make a case. He just had bad timing.
Year
|
Lg.
|
Pitcher
|
SO9
|
SP K/9
|
Odds Ratio K/9
|
1955
|
AL
|
Herb Score
|
9.70
|
4.55
|
2.77
|
1956
|
AL
|
Herb Score
|
9.49
|
4.88
|
2.46
|
1956
|
NL
|
Sam Jones
|
8.40
|
4.50
|
2.26
|
1951
|
AL
|
Mickey McDermott
|
6.65
|
3.72
|
2.04
|
1959
|
AL
|
Herb Score
|
8.23
|
4.84
|
2.01
|
The three years where Herb Score appears on this list are the three years when he managed to pitch more than 120 innings. 1955 and 1956 are the two pre-injury seasons….1959 was a couple years after Gil McDougald’s liner nearly killed him.
Score said that the thing that cost him his career wasn’t the line drive, but an elbow injury from 1958 was what really did him in. You can see the game in his 1958 logs: after shutting out the White Sox (and striking out 13 hitters) in early April, he had a really bad game against Washington, walking eight guys and losing the game in the ninth. It’s probable that the elbow was the real damage.
That said, I think Herb Score was heading for a Hall-of-Fame career, and maybe an inner-circle one. Like a lot of lefties, he walked his fair share of batters in the early years of his career, but Score seemed to be figuring it out earlier than other lefties. His strikeout-to-walk ratio improved from 1955 to 1956, and it improved from the first-half of 1956 to the second-half. If he had avoided McDougald or the elbow injury, there’s a good chance that he would’ve emerged as the best pitcher of his generation.
Year
|
Lg.
|
Pitcher
|
SO9
|
SP K/9
|
Odds Ratio K/9
|
1962
|
NL
|
Sandy Koufax
|
10.55
|
5.48
|
2.52
|
1960
|
NL
|
Sandy Koufax
|
10.13
|
5.45
|
2.37
|
1965
|
AL
|
Sam McDowell
|
10.71
|
5.86
|
2.37
|
1966
|
AL
|
Sam McDowell
|
10.42
|
5.86
|
2.27
|
1965
|
NL
|
Sandy Koufax
|
10.24
|
5.87
|
2.20
|
Sandy and Sudden Sam comprise most of the 1960’s list.
This is the third decade in a row where Cleveland had one of the top strikeout pitchers in the game….Feller and Allie Reynolds, then Herb Score, then Sudden Sam. I don’t have anything to say about that, just pointing it out.
Sam McDowell was traded for Gaylord Perry after the 1971. At the time of the trade, most people thought that the Giants got the better end of it: McDowell was approaching his twenty-ninth spin around the sun, while Perry was thirty-four, and looking older than that. Of course, Gaylord Perry went on to win 180 games and a couple more Cy Young Awards on his way to the Hall of Fame, while McDowell flamed out, winning just 19 games after the trade. Sometimes a bet on the old guy pays off.
That was the sixties. The seventies are going to be pretty boring:
Year
|
Lg.
|
Pitcher
|
SO9
|
SP K/9
|
Odds Ratio K/9
|
1976
|
AL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
10.35
|
4.57
|
3.05
|
1978
|
AL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
9.97
|
4.40
|
3.01
|
1973
|
AL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
10.57
|
5.01
|
2.83
|
1977
|
AL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
10.26
|
4.82
|
2.82
|
1974
|
AL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
9.93
|
4.78
|
2.70
|
Nolan also claims the sixth spot, and then J.R. Richards and Frank Tanana get some years scattered around other seasons of Ryan’s.
Nolan lead the 1980’s, too, though he gets a little competition:
Year
|
Lg.
|
Pitcher
|
SO9
|
SP K/9
|
Odds Ratio K/9
|
1989
|
AL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
11.32
|
5.11
|
3.09
|
1984
|
NL
|
Dwight Gooden
|
11.40
|
5.48
|
2.87
|
1987
|
NL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
11.48
|
5.74
|
2.74
|
1988
|
AL
|
Roger Clemens
|
9.92
|
5.31
|
2.37
|
1982
|
NL
|
Mario Soto
|
9.57
|
5.14
|
2.34
|
I started caring about baseball right in the middle of the debate about Clemens or Gooden as the best pitcher in the game. Through the end of 1990, you could reasonably make a case for each pitcher, but Rocket pulled ahead in 1991 and 1992, winning a couple ERA titles and a third Cy Young Award while Gooden scuffled to a couple 3.00+ ERA seasons. Then Gooden missed time, and it wasn’t a debate.
Clemens and Nolan Ryan, two Texans, had a couple appearances in the 1990’s, but a new generation of pitchers pushed them off the list at the end of the decade:
Year
|
Lg.
|
Pitcher
|
SO9
|
SP K/9
|
Odds Ratio K/9
|
1999
|
AL
|
Pedro Martinez
|
13.21
|
5.99
|
3.36
|
1995
|
AL
|
Randy Johnson
|
12.35
|
5.75
|
3.11
|
1997
|
AL
|
Randy Johnson
|
12.30
|
6.08
|
2.88
|
1998
|
NL
|
Kerry Wood
|
12.58
|
6.53
|
2.74
|
1999
|
NL
|
Randy Johnson
|
12.06
|
6.26
|
2.67
|
Pedro and Unit would hold sway over the next decade, too, with Kerry Wood showing up in the sixth spot before his arm fell apart:
Year
|
Lg.
|
Pitcher
|
SO9
|
SP K/9
|
Odds Ratio K/9
|
2001
|
NL
|
Randy Johnson
|
13.41
|
6.66
|
3.01
|
2000
|
NL
|
Randy Johnson
|
12.56
|
6.42
|
2.79
|
2000
|
AL
|
Pedro Martinez
|
11.78
|
5.98
|
2.72
|
2002
|
NL
|
Randy Johnson
|
11.56
|
6.46
|
2.38
|
2002
|
AL
|
Pedro Martinez
|
10.79
|
5.91
|
2.38
|
One of the things that has surprised me about this is how clear the strikeout kings are, decade by decade. It was Waddell and Walter Johnson, Vance and Grove and Feller, Score and Sandy and Sudden Sam McDowell, Nolan and Pedro and Randy. There aren’t long periods where it’s not really clear who the big guns are….the strikeout guys show up at the top year-after-year.
Which brings us to our current decade:
Year
|
Lg.
|
Pitcher
|
SO9
|
SP K/9
|
Odds Ratio K/9
|
2017
|
AL
|
Chris Sale
|
12.83
|
7.88
|
2.20
|
2013
|
AL
|
Yu Darvish
|
11.89
|
7.20
|
2.16
|
2015
|
AL
|
Chris Sale
|
11.82
|
7.26
|
2.12
|
2016
|
NL
|
Jose Fernandez
|
12.49
|
7.88
|
2.09
|
2017
|
NL
|
Max Scherzer
|
12.35
|
7.91
|
2.03
|
In my last article, I wrote a little about Chris Sale. Chris Sale isn’t on par with Pedro Martinez, at least when it comes to strikeouts. But he is posting the best strikeout rate of the decade, and he’s making the case that he’s the current strikeout king in baseball, even if Kershaw or Scherzer have been better pitchers than Sale.
* * *
So what are the best strikeout seasons of all-time, according to Odds Ratio K/9 IP?
Rank
|
Year
|
Lg.
|
Pitcher
|
SO9
|
SP K/9
|
OR K/9
|
1
|
1924
|
NL
|
Dazzy Vance
|
7.65
|
2.80
|
3.42
|
2
|
1999
|
AL
|
Pedro Martinez
|
13.21
|
5.99
|
3.36
|
3
|
1926
|
NL
|
Dazzy Vance
|
7.46
|
2.77
|
3.34
|
4
|
1925
|
NL
|
Dazzy Vance
|
7.50
|
2.84
|
3.27
|
5
|
1902
|
AL
|
Rube Waddell
|
6.84
|
2.54
|
3.27
|
6
|
1995
|
AL
|
Randy Johnson
|
12.35
|
5.75
|
3.11
|
7
|
1989
|
AL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
11.32
|
5.11
|
3.09
|
8
|
1976
|
AL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
10.35
|
4.57
|
3.05
|
9
|
2001
|
NL
|
Randy Johnson
|
13.41
|
6.66
|
3.01
|
10
|
1978
|
AL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
9.97
|
4.40
|
3.01
|
Dazzy Vance nets the top spot, and three of the top four strikeout seasons of all-time. He has a clear claim for the title of Best Strikeout Pitcher Ever.
That said, Nolan Ryan also has three slots on the top-ten, and Randy Johnson shows up twice. If we go further down our list, who gets more ticks?
11
|
1997
|
AL
|
Randy Johnson
|
12.30
|
6.08
|
2.88
|
12
|
1984
|
NL
|
Dwight Gooden
|
11.40
|
5.48
|
2.87
|
13
|
1973
|
AL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
10.57
|
5.01
|
2.83
|
14
|
1977
|
AL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
10.26
|
4.82
|
2.82
|
15
|
2000
|
NL
|
Randy Johnson
|
12.56
|
6.42
|
2.79
|
16
|
1955
|
AL
|
Herb Score
|
9.70
|
4.55
|
2.77
|
17
|
1926
|
AL
|
Lefty Grove
|
6.77
|
2.92
|
2.76
|
18
|
1987
|
NL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
11.48
|
5.74
|
2.74
|
19
|
1998
|
NL
|
Kerry Wood
|
12.58
|
6.53
|
2.74
|
20
|
2000
|
AL
|
Pedro Martinez
|
11.78
|
5.98
|
2.72
|
No Vance, but Randy Johnson and Nolan Ryan both show up twice. That gives us a tally of: Ryan (5), Johnson (4), Vance (3). Going another ten:
21
|
1941
|
NL
|
Johnny Vander Meer
|
8.03
|
3.64
|
2.72
|
22
|
1974
|
AL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
9.93
|
4.78
|
2.70
|
23
|
1928
|
NL
|
Dazzy Vance
|
6.42
|
2.80
|
2.70
|
24
|
1903
|
AL
|
Rube Waddell
|
8.39
|
3.87
|
2.69
|
25
|
1999
|
NL
|
Randy Johnson
|
12.06
|
6.26
|
2.67
|
26
|
1938
|
AL
|
Bob Feller
|
7.78
|
3.58
|
2.65
|
27
|
1993
|
AL
|
Randy Johnson
|
10.86
|
5.47
|
2.65
|
28
|
1923
|
NL
|
Dazzy Vance
|
6.33
|
2.80
|
2.64
|
29
|
1979
|
AL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
9.01
|
4.32
|
2.63
|
30
|
1978
|
NL
|
J.R. Richard
|
9.90
|
4.90
|
2.61
|
All three pitchers make two appearances each. We’re at Ryan (7), Johnson (6), Vance (5).
Let’s go down to fifty, and call it a day:
31
|
1992
|
AL
|
Randy Johnson
|
10.31
|
5.18
|
2.60
|
32
|
1928
|
AL
|
George Earnshaw
|
6.65
|
3.02
|
2.60
|
33
|
1991
|
AL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
10.56
|
5.43
|
2.55
|
34
|
1962
|
NL
|
Sandy Koufax
|
10.55
|
5.48
|
2.52
|
35
|
1979
|
NL
|
J.R. Richard
|
9.64
|
4.88
|
2.52
|
36
|
1930
|
NL
|
Bill Hallahan
|
6.71
|
3.14
|
2.51
|
37
|
1927
|
AL
|
Lefty Grove
|
5.97
|
2.75
|
2.50
|
38
|
1975
|
AL
|
Frank Tanana
|
9.41
|
4.78
|
2.49
|
39
|
1972
|
AL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
10.43
|
5.48
|
2.47
|
40
|
1956
|
AL
|
Herb Score
|
9.49
|
4.88
|
2.46
|
41
|
1927
|
NL
|
Dazzy Vance
|
6.06
|
2.85
|
2.45
|
42
|
1904
|
AL
|
Rube Waddell
|
8.20
|
4.08
|
2.45
|
43
|
1939
|
AL
|
Bob Feller
|
7.46
|
3.65
|
2.44
|
44
|
1990
|
AL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
10.24
|
5.44
|
2.42
|
45
|
1933
|
NL
|
Dizzy Dean
|
6.11
|
2.92
|
2.41
|
46
|
1946
|
AL
|
Hal Newhouser
|
8.46
|
4.32
|
2.39
|
47
|
2002
|
NL
|
Randy Johnson
|
11.56
|
6.46
|
2.38
|
48
|
2002
|
AL
|
Pedro Martinez
|
10.79
|
5.91
|
2.38
|
49
|
1960
|
NL
|
Sandy Koufax
|
10.13
|
5.45
|
2.37
|
50
|
1965
|
AL
|
Sam McDowell
|
10.71
|
5.86
|
2.37
|
Nolan picks up three more seasons, Johnson gets two, and Vance gets one. Out of the top-fifty seasons, that’s Ryan (10), Johnson (8), Vance (6).
So while Vance can be credited as having the best peak strikeout seasons, Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson are ahead of him in career performance. You can pick how you’d like to rate them, but I’m sticking with Nolan, who shows up multiple times across three decades. You can’t go wrong saying ‘Nolan Ryan’ when anyone asks anything about strikeouts.
* * *
We get Vance, Pedro, Waddell, Randy, and Nolan at the top of our list…all great strikeout pitchers. Who shows up at the bottom?
Here are the ten worst seasons to lead their leagues in K/9 rates:
Rank
|
Year
|
Lg.
|
Pitcher
|
SO9
|
SP K/9
|
OR K/9
|
234
|
2012
|
NL
|
Gio Gonzalez
|
9.35
|
7.28
|
1.43
|
233
|
1968
|
NL
|
Bill Singer
|
7.97
|
5.94
|
1.48
|
232
|
1940
|
NL
|
Cliff Melton
|
4.91
|
3.49
|
1.50
|
231
|
1913
|
NL
|
Jeff Tesreau
|
5.33
|
3.76
|
1.52
|
230
|
1915
|
AL
|
Dutch Leonard
|
5.70
|
3.99
|
1.54
|
229
|
1967
|
NL
|
Gary Nolan
|
8.18
|
5.88
|
1.56
|
228
|
1934
|
AL
|
Red Ruffing
|
5.23
|
3.60
|
1.56
|
227
|
1920
|
AL
|
Doc Ayers
|
4.44
|
3.02
|
1.56
|
226
|
1921
|
NL
|
Burleigh Grimes
|
4.05
|
2.73
|
1.57
|
225
|
1919
|
AL
|
Allen Russell
|
4.80
|
3.26
|
1.57
|
Not great pitchers. The metric does a good job of filtering the elite strikeout pitchers from guys who lucked into one or two good years in leagues with no clear competition. Gary Nolan is the outlier: he was a burner, but his arm blew out before he could have himself a career.
So that’s it. I’ve thrown enough tables at you to make you sick, so I’ll probably lay off the Excel on the next article. Big thanks to Tom Tango for introducing me to the Odds Ratio Method, and thanks to everyone who offers ideas on other ways to approach this question.
Here are all 234 pitching seasons, ordered by year and league:
Rank
|
Year
|
Lg.
|
Pitcher
|
SO9
|
SP K/9
|
OR K/9
|
180
|
1901
|
AL
|
Ned Garvin
|
4.27
|
2.58
|
1.78
|
134
|
1901
|
NL
|
Tom Hughes
|
6.57
|
3.83
|
1.94
|
5
|
1902
|
AL
|
Rube Waddell
|
6.84
|
2.54
|
3.27
|
205
|
1902
|
NL
|
Doc White
|
5.44
|
3.52
|
1.68
|
24
|
1903
|
AL
|
Rube Waddell
|
8.39
|
3.87
|
2.69
|
77
|
1903
|
NL
|
Christy Mathewson
|
6.56
|
3.44
|
2.20
|
42
|
1904
|
AL
|
Rube Waddell
|
8.20
|
4.08
|
2.45
|
174
|
1904
|
NL
|
Hooks Wiltse
|
5.74
|
3.54
|
1.79
|
67
|
1905
|
AL
|
Rube Waddell
|
7.86
|
4.19
|
2.24
|
88
|
1905
|
NL
|
Red Ames
|
6.78
|
3.65
|
2.15
|
137
|
1906
|
AL
|
Rube Waddell
|
6.47
|
3.77
|
1.94
|
94
|
1906
|
NL
|
Red Ames
|
6.91
|
3.76
|
2.12
|
52
|
1907
|
AL
|
Rube Waddell
|
7.34
|
3.67
|
2.37
|
188
|
1907
|
NL
|
Red Ames
|
5.63
|
3.51
|
1.76
|
91
|
1908
|
AL
|
Rube Waddell
|
7.31
|
3.99
|
2.14
|
61
|
1908
|
NL
|
Orval Overall
|
6.68
|
3.37
|
2.31
|
222
|
1909
|
AL
|
Heinie Berger
|
5.90
|
4.02
|
1.60
|
105
|
1909
|
NL
|
Orval Overall
|
6.47
|
3.58
|
2.06
|
93
|
1910
|
AL
|
Walter Johnson
|
7.61
|
4.21
|
2.13
|
138
|
1910
|
NL
|
Louis Drucke
|
6.31
|
3.68
|
1.93
|
99
|
1911
|
AL
|
Smoky Joe Wood
|
7.54
|
4.19
|
2.11
|
54
|
1911
|
NL
|
Rube Marquard
|
7.68
|
3.90
|
2.36
|
111
|
1912
|
AL
|
Walter Johnson
|
7.39
|
4.24
|
2.02
|
219
|
1912
|
NL
|
Pete Alexander
|
5.66
|
3.81
|
1.61
|
193
|
1913
|
AL
|
Walter Johnson
|
6.32
|
4.01
|
1.75
|
231
|
1913
|
NL
|
Jeff Tesreau
|
5.33
|
3.76
|
1.52
|
128
|
1914
|
AL
|
Dutch Leonard
|
7.05
|
4.12
|
1.96
|
159
|
1914
|
NL
|
Ben Tincup
|
6.27
|
3.80
|
1.85
|
230
|
1915
|
AL
|
Dutch Leonard
|
5.70
|
3.99
|
1.54
|
211
|
1915
|
NL
|
Pete Alexander
|
5.76
|
3.78
|
1.67
|
221
|
1916
|
AL
|
Walter Johnson
|
5.55
|
3.76
|
1.60
|
212
|
1916
|
NL
|
Larry Cheney
|
5.91
|
3.89
|
1.66
|
203
|
1917
|
AL
|
Walter Johnson
|
5.19
|
3.34
|
1.69
|
164
|
1917
|
NL
|
Hippo Vaughn
|
5.94
|
3.60
|
1.83
|
131
|
1918
|
AL
|
Guy Morton
|
5.16
|
2.91
|
1.95
|
194
|
1918
|
NL
|
Hippo Vaughn
|
4.59
|
2.83
|
1.75
|
225
|
1919
|
AL
|
Allen Russell
|
4.80
|
3.26
|
1.57
|
168
|
1919
|
NL
|
Hod Eller
|
4.97
|
2.98
|
1.82
|
227
|
1920
|
AL
|
Doc Ayers
|
4.44
|
3.02
|
1.56
|
181
|
1920
|
NL
|
Al Mamaux
|
4.77
|
2.91
|
1.78
|
186
|
1921
|
AL
|
Walter Johnson
|
4.88
|
2.99
|
1.77
|
226
|
1921
|
NL
|
Burleigh Grimes
|
4.05
|
2.73
|
1.57
|
209
|
1922
|
AL
|
Guy Morton
|
4.53
|
2.90
|
1.68
|
114
|
1922
|
NL
|
Dazzy Vance
|
4.91
|
2.69
|
2.01
|
196
|
1923
|
AL
|
Syl Johnson
|
4.75
|
2.96
|
1.73
|
28
|
1923
|
NL
|
Dazzy Vance
|
6.33
|
2.80
|
2.64
|
92
|
1924
|
AL
|
Walter Johnson
|
5.12
|
2.67
|
2.13
|
1
|
1924
|
NL
|
Dazzy Vance
|
7.65
|
2.80
|
3.42
|
76
|
1925
|
AL
|
Lefty Grove
|
5.30
|
2.70
|
2.20
|
4
|
1925
|
NL
|
Dazzy Vance
|
7.50
|
2.84
|
3.27
|
17
|
1926
|
AL
|
Lefty Grove
|
6.77
|
2.92
|
2.76
|
3
|
1926
|
NL
|
Dazzy Vance
|
7.46
|
2.77
|
3.34
|
37
|
1927
|
AL
|
Lefty Grove
|
5.97
|
2.75
|
2.50
|
41
|
1927
|
NL
|
Dazzy Vance
|
6.06
|
2.85
|
2.45
|
32
|
1928
|
AL
|
George Earnshaw
|
6.65
|
3.02
|
2.60
|
23
|
1928
|
NL
|
Dazzy Vance
|
6.42
|
2.80
|
2.70
|
106
|
1929
|
AL
|
Lefty Grove
|
5.56
|
3.02
|
2.06
|
73
|
1929
|
NL
|
Pat Malone
|
5.60
|
2.86
|
2.21
|
75
|
1930
|
AL
|
Lefty Grove
|
6.46
|
3.38
|
2.20
|
36
|
1930
|
NL
|
Bill Hallahan
|
6.71
|
3.14
|
2.51
|
83
|
1931
|
AL
|
Bump Hadley
|
6.21
|
3.25
|
2.18
|
66
|
1931
|
NL
|
Dazzy Vance
|
6.17
|
3.16
|
2.24
|
59
|
1932
|
AL
|
Red Ruffing
|
6.60
|
3.32
|
2.31
|
81
|
1932
|
NL
|
Dizzy Dean
|
6.01
|
3.12
|
2.19
|
87
|
1933
|
AL
|
Lefty Gomez
|
6.25
|
3.32
|
2.15
|
45
|
1933
|
NL
|
Dizzy Dean
|
6.11
|
2.92
|
2.41
|
228
|
1934
|
AL
|
Red Ruffing
|
5.23
|
3.60
|
1.56
|
176
|
1934
|
NL
|
Paul Dean
|
5.79
|
3.58
|
1.78
|
95
|
1935
|
AL
|
Johnny Allen
|
6.09
|
3.26
|
2.12
|
115
|
1935
|
NL
|
Van Mungo
|
6.01
|
3.37
|
2.01
|
104
|
1936
|
AL
|
Johnny Allen
|
6.11
|
3.34
|
2.07
|
58
|
1936
|
NL
|
Van Mungo
|
6.87
|
3.45
|
2.33
|
144
|
1937
|
AL
|
Lefty Gomez
|
6.27
|
3.70
|
1.91
|
102
|
1937
|
NL
|
Van Mungo
|
6.82
|
3.76
|
2.09
|
26
|
1938
|
AL
|
Bob Feller
|
7.78
|
3.58
|
2.65
|
202
|
1938
|
NL
|
Carl Hubbell
|
5.23
|
3.35
|
1.70
|
43
|
1939
|
AL
|
Bob Feller
|
7.46
|
3.65
|
2.44
|
179
|
1939
|
NL
|
Mort Cooper
|
5.55
|
3.43
|
1.78
|
80
|
1940
|
AL
|
Bob Feller
|
7.33
|
3.92
|
2.20
|
232
|
1940
|
NL
|
Cliff Melton
|
4.91
|
3.49
|
1.50
|
84
|
1941
|
AL
|
Bob Feller
|
6.82
|
3.62
|
2.18
|
21
|
1941
|
NL
|
Johnny Vander Meer
|
8.03
|
3.64
|
2.72
|
223
|
1942
|
AL
|
Hal Newhouser
|
5.05
|
3.40
|
1.60
|
57
|
1942
|
NL
|
Johnny Vander Meer
|
6.86
|
3.44
|
2.33
|
72
|
1943
|
AL
|
Allie Reynolds
|
6.84
|
3.59
|
2.21
|
171
|
1943
|
NL
|
Johnny Vander Meer
|
5.42
|
3.29
|
1.81
|
197
|
1944
|
AL
|
Hal Newhouser
|
5.39
|
3.41
|
1.73
|
130
|
1944
|
NL
|
Max Lanier
|
5.66
|
3.22
|
1.96
|
122
|
1945
|
AL
|
Hal Newhouser
|
6.09
|
3.45
|
1.99
|
117
|
1945
|
NL
|
Preacher Roe
|
5.67
|
3.17
|
2.00
|
46
|
1946
|
AL
|
Hal Newhouser
|
8.46
|
4.32
|
2.39
|
192
|
1946
|
NL
|
Kirby Higbe
|
5.73
|
3.59
|
1.75
|
200
|
1947
|
AL
|
Bob Feller
|
5.90
|
3.79
|
1.71
|
145
|
1947
|
NL
|
Ewell Blackwell
|
6.36
|
3.76
|
1.91
|
160
|
1948
|
AL
|
Lou Brissie
|
5.89
|
3.56
|
1.84
|
220
|
1948
|
NL
|
Harry Brecheen
|
5.75
|
3.89
|
1.61
|
170
|
1949
|
AL
|
Tommy Byrne
|
5.92
|
3.62
|
1.82
|
214
|
1949
|
NL
|
Don Newcombe
|
5.49
|
3.62
|
1.65
|
182
|
1950
|
AL
|
Early Wynn
|
6.02
|
3.76
|
1.77
|
191
|
1950
|
NL
|
Ewell Blackwell
|
6.48
|
4.12
|
1.75
|
107
|
1951
|
AL
|
Mickey McDermott
|
6.65
|
3.72
|
2.04
|
146
|
1951
|
NL
|
Mel Queen
|
6.58
|
3.91
|
1.90
|
201
|
1952
|
AL
|
Mickey McDermott
|
6.50
|
4.22
|
1.71
|
163
|
1952
|
NL
|
Vinegar Bend Mizell
|
6.92
|
4.27
|
1.83
|
206
|
1953
|
AL
|
Billy Pierce
|
6.17
|
4.04
|
1.68
|
183
|
1953
|
NL
|
Vinegar Bend Mizell
|
6.94
|
4.41
|
1.77
|
129
|
1954
|
AL
|
Billy Pierce
|
7.06
|
4.13
|
1.96
|
199
|
1954
|
NL
|
Harvey Haddix
|
6.38
|
4.11
|
1.72
|
16
|
1955
|
AL
|
Herb Score
|
9.70
|
4.55
|
2.77
|
142
|
1955
|
NL
|
Sam Jones
|
7.37
|
4.44
|
1.91
|
40
|
1956
|
AL
|
Herb Score
|
9.49
|
4.88
|
2.46
|
63
|
1956
|
NL
|
Sam Jones
|
8.40
|
4.50
|
2.26
|
156
|
1957
|
AL
|
Bob Turley
|
7.76
|
4.80
|
1.86
|
167
|
1957
|
NL
|
Sam Jones
|
7.59
|
4.77
|
1.82
|
208
|
1958
|
AL
|
Camilo Pascual
|
7.41
|
4.97
|
1.68
|
151
|
1958
|
NL
|
Sam Jones
|
8.10
|
5.02
|
1.88
|
113
|
1959
|
AL
|
Herb Score
|
8.23
|
4.84
|
2.01
|
187
|
1959
|
NL
|
Don Drysdale
|
8.05
|
5.23
|
1.77
|
204
|
1960
|
AL
|
Jim Bunning
|
7.18
|
4.78
|
1.68
|
49
|
1960
|
NL
|
Sandy Koufax
|
10.13
|
5.45
|
2.37
|
116
|
1961
|
AL
|
Juan Pizarro
|
8.69
|
5.17
|
2.00
|
79
|
1961
|
NL
|
Sandy Koufax
|
9.47
|
5.33
|
2.20
|
210
|
1962
|
AL
|
Juan Pizarro
|
7.66
|
5.17
|
1.67
|
34
|
1962
|
NL
|
Sandy Koufax
|
10.55
|
5.48
|
2.52
|
161
|
1963
|
AL
|
Al Downing
|
8.76
|
5.60
|
1.84
|
120
|
1963
|
NL
|
Jim Maloney
|
9.53
|
5.81
|
1.99
|
166
|
1964
|
AL
|
Sam McDowell
|
9.19
|
5.94
|
1.83
|
148
|
1964
|
NL
|
Sandy Koufax
|
9.00
|
5.65
|
1.89
|
50
|
1965
|
AL
|
Sam McDowell
|
10.71
|
5.86
|
2.37
|
74
|
1965
|
NL
|
Sandy Koufax
|
10.24
|
5.87
|
2.20
|
62
|
1966
|
AL
|
Sam McDowell
|
10.42
|
5.86
|
2.27
|
172
|
1966
|
NL
|
Sandy Koufax
|
8.83
|
5.76
|
1.79
|
185
|
1967
|
AL
|
Luis Tiant
|
9.23
|
6.12
|
1.77
|
229
|
1967
|
NL
|
Gary Nolan
|
8.18
|
5.88
|
1.56
|
143
|
1968
|
AL
|
Sam McDowell
|
9.47
|
5.96
|
1.91
|
233
|
1968
|
NL
|
Bill Singer
|
7.97
|
5.94
|
1.48
|
150
|
1969
|
AL
|
Sam McDowell
|
8.81
|
5.52
|
1.89
|
157
|
1969
|
NL
|
Tom Griffin
|
9.56
|
6.16
|
1.85
|
139
|
1970
|
AL
|
Sam McDowell
|
8.97
|
5.54
|
1.93
|
198
|
1970
|
NL
|
Tom Seaver
|
8.76
|
5.89
|
1.72
|
127
|
1971
|
AL
|
Vida Blue
|
8.68
|
5.24
|
1.97
|
110
|
1971
|
NL
|
Tom Seaver
|
9.08
|
5.39
|
2.03
|
39
|
1972
|
AL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
10.43
|
5.48
|
2.47
|
178
|
1972
|
NL
|
Tom Seaver
|
8.55
|
5.58
|
1.78
|
13
|
1973
|
AL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
10.57
|
5.01
|
2.83
|
213
|
1973
|
NL
|
Tom Seaver
|
7.79
|
5.33
|
1.65
|
22
|
1974
|
AL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
9.93
|
4.78
|
2.70
|
207
|
1974
|
NL
|
Tom Seaver
|
7.67
|
5.15
|
1.68
|
38
|
1975
|
AL
|
Frank Tanana
|
9.41
|
4.78
|
2.49
|
169
|
1975
|
NL
|
John Montefusco
|
7.94
|
5.04
|
1.82
|
8
|
1976
|
AL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
10.35
|
4.57
|
3.05
|
154
|
1976
|
NL
|
Tom Seaver
|
7.80
|
4.82
|
1.87
|
14
|
1977
|
AL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
10.26
|
4.82
|
2.82
|
217
|
1977
|
NL
|
Jerry Koosman
|
7.62
|
5.27
|
1.62
|
10
|
1978
|
AL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
9.97
|
4.40
|
3.01
|
30
|
1978
|
NL
|
J.R. Richard
|
9.90
|
4.90
|
2.61
|
29
|
1979
|
AL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
9.01
|
4.32
|
2.63
|
35
|
1979
|
NL
|
J.R. Richard
|
9.64
|
4.88
|
2.52
|
190
|
1980
|
AL
|
Len Barker
|
6.83
|
4.36
|
1.76
|
90
|
1980
|
NL
|
Mario Soto
|
8.61
|
4.84
|
2.14
|
118
|
1981
|
AL
|
Dave Righetti
|
7.60
|
4.43
|
2.00
|
101
|
1981
|
NL
|
Steve Carlton
|
8.48
|
4.85
|
2.09
|
98
|
1982
|
AL
|
Dave Righetti
|
8.02
|
4.50
|
2.11
|
56
|
1982
|
NL
|
Mario Soto
|
9.57
|
5.14
|
2.34
|
112
|
1983
|
AL
|
Floyd Bannister
|
7.99
|
4.66
|
2.02
|
141
|
1983
|
NL
|
Steve Carlton
|
8.73
|
5.38
|
1.92
|
135
|
1984
|
AL
|
Mark Langston
|
8.16
|
4.92
|
1.94
|
12
|
1984
|
NL
|
Dwight Gooden
|
11.40
|
5.48
|
2.87
|
124
|
1985
|
AL
|
Floyd Bannister
|
8.46
|
5.07
|
1.97
|
69
|
1985
|
NL
|
Sid Fernandez
|
9.51
|
5.29
|
2.23
|
133
|
1986
|
AL
|
Mark Langston
|
9.21
|
5.67
|
1.95
|
89
|
1986
|
NL
|
Mike Scott
|
10.00
|
5.81
|
2.15
|
195
|
1987
|
AL
|
Mark Langston
|
8.67
|
5.76
|
1.74
|
18
|
1987
|
NL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
11.48
|
5.74
|
2.74
|
51
|
1988
|
AL
|
Roger Clemens
|
9.92
|
5.31
|
2.37
|
100
|
1988
|
NL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
9.33
|
5.44
|
2.09
|
7
|
1989
|
AL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
11.32
|
5.11
|
3.09
|
147
|
1989
|
NL
|
Mark Langston
|
8.92
|
5.57
|
1.90
|
44
|
1990
|
AL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
10.24
|
5.44
|
2.42
|
64
|
1990
|
NL
|
David Cone
|
9.91
|
5.53
|
2.25
|
33
|
1991
|
AL
|
Nolan Ryan
|
10.56
|
5.43
|
2.55
|
125
|
1991
|
NL
|
David Cone
|
9.32
|
5.70
|
1.97
|
31
|
1992
|
AL
|
Randy Johnson
|
10.31
|
5.18
|
2.60
|
71
|
1992
|
NL
|
David Cone
|
9.79
|
5.51
|
2.22
|
27
|
1993
|
AL
|
Randy Johnson
|
10.86
|
5.47
|
2.65
|
218
|
1993
|
NL
|
Jose Rijo
|
7.94
|
5.52
|
1.62
|
53
|
1994
|
AL
|
Randy Johnson
|
10.67
|
5.85
|
2.36
|
123
|
1994
|
NL
|
Andy Benes
|
9.87
|
6.08
|
1.98
|
6
|
1995
|
AL
|
Randy Johnson
|
12.35
|
5.75
|
3.11
|
60
|
1995
|
NL
|
Hideo Nomo
|
11.10
|
6.27
|
2.31
|
126
|
1996
|
AL
|
Roger Clemens
|
9.53
|
5.86
|
1.97
|
165
|
1996
|
NL
|
John Smoltz
|
9.79
|
6.40
|
1.83
|
11
|
1997
|
AL
|
Randy Johnson
|
12.30
|
6.08
|
2.88
|
65
|
1997
|
NL
|
Pedro Martinez
|
11.37
|
6.61
|
2.25
|
96
|
1998
|
AL
|
Roger Clemens
|
10.39
|
6.16
|
2.12
|
19
|
1998
|
NL
|
Kerry Wood
|
12.58
|
6.53
|
2.74
|
2
|
1999
|
AL
|
Pedro Martinez
|
13.21
|
5.99
|
3.36
|
25
|
1999
|
NL
|
Randy Johnson
|
12.06
|
6.26
|
2.67
|
20
|
2000
|
AL
|
Pedro Martinez
|
11.78
|
5.98
|
2.72
|
15
|
2000
|
NL
|
Randy Johnson
|
12.56
|
6.42
|
2.79
|
108
|
2001
|
AL
|
Hideo Nomo
|
10.00
|
6.04
|
2.04
|
9
|
2001
|
NL
|
Randy Johnson
|
13.41
|
6.66
|
3.01
|
48
|
2002
|
AL
|
Pedro Martinez
|
10.79
|
5.91
|
2.38
|
47
|
2002
|
NL
|
Randy Johnson
|
11.56
|
6.46
|
2.38
|
82
|
2003
|
AL
|
Pedro Martinez
|
9.93
|
5.67
|
2.19
|
55
|
2003
|
NL
|
Kerry Wood
|
11.35
|
6.39
|
2.34
|
70
|
2004
|
AL
|
Johan Santana
|
10.46
|
5.97
|
2.23
|
85
|
2004
|
NL
|
Oliver Perez
|
10.98
|
6.46
|
2.18
|
140
|
2005
|
AL
|
Johan Santana
|
9.25
|
5.76
|
1.92
|
121
|
2005
|
NL
|
Mark Prior
|
10.15
|
6.28
|
1.99
|
158
|
2006
|
AL
|
Johan Santana
|
9.44
|
6.07
|
1.85
|
175
|
2006
|
NL
|
Jake Peavy
|
9.56
|
6.34
|
1.79
|
68
|
2007
|
AL
|
Erik Bedard
|
10.93
|
6.30
|
2.23
|
162
|
2007
|
NL
|
Jake Peavy
|
9.67
|
6.30
|
1.83
|
177
|
2008
|
AL
|
A.J. Burnett
|
9.39
|
6.22
|
1.78
|
136
|
2008
|
NL
|
Tim Lincecum
|
10.51
|
6.67
|
1.94
|
149
|
2009
|
AL
|
Justin Verlander
|
10.09
|
6.49
|
1.89
|
155
|
2009
|
NL
|
Tim Lincecum
|
10.43
|
6.80
|
1.87
|
189
|
2010
|
AL
|
Jon Lester
|
9.74
|
6.55
|
1.76
|
216
|
2010
|
NL
|
Tim Lincecum
|
9.79
|
6.96
|
1.64
|
152
|
2011
|
AL
|
Brandon Morrow
|
10.19
|
6.60
|
1.87
|
153
|
2011
|
NL
|
Zack Greinke
|
10.54
|
6.88
|
1.87
|
119
|
2012
|
AL
|
Max Scherzer
|
11.08
|
6.99
|
1.99
|
234
|
2012
|
NL
|
Gio Gonzalez
|
9.35
|
7.28
|
1.43
|
86
|
2013
|
AL
|
Yu Darvish
|
11.89
|
7.20
|
2.16
|
224
|
2013
|
NL
|
A.J. Burnett
|
9.85
|
7.19
|
1.58
|
184
|
2014
|
AL
|
Chris Sale
|
10.76
|
7.35
|
1.77
|
173
|
2014
|
NL
|
Clayton Kershaw
|
10.85
|
7.36
|
1.79
|
97
|
2015
|
AL
|
Chris Sale
|
11.82
|
7.26
|
2.12
|
132
|
2015
|
NL
|
Clayton Kershaw
|
11.64
|
7.55
|
1.95
|
215
|
2016
|
AL
|
Michael Pineda
|
10.61
|
7.63
|
1.64
|
103
|
2016
|
NL
|
Jose Fernandez
|
12.49
|
7.88
|
2.09
|
78
|
2017
|
AL
|
Chris Sale
|
12.83
|
7.88
|
2.20
|
109
|
2017
|
NL
|
Max Scherzer
|
12.35
|
7.91
|
2.03
|
Dave Fleming is a writer living in western Virginia. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.