Sometime last season I proposed a system for ranking Starting Pitchers. We could call it Tennis Envy. I envy tennis—and golf—their systems of continuously updated player rankings: that is, I envy them the fact that they can state with confidence and unanimity who is the number one tennis player or golf fiend in the world at any moment, and who is second, and third, and so on. I hope that we can skip now the reasons for not applying this willy-nilly to everything in baseball, second basemen and relief pitchers, since we have now been through those discussions several times, and stick to applying such a system where it will work in baseball, which is with regard to starting pitchers.
I hope to present to you regularly here the World’s Number One Starting Pitcher rankings. I will warn you that
1) I am trying to do this manually, rather than having hired somebody to automate the process, and
2) I am notoriously disorganized about projects like this, so I may not get this updated as regularly as I would like.
But anyway, as of the start of this season, the World’s Number One Starting Pitcher is Justin Verlander. You might say, "Duh", but actually it’s as close it could possibly be; two more strikeouts and one less run allowed in a post-season game, and the World’s Number One Starting Pitcher would be Roy Halladay. The two are so close that, unless one of them starts poorly early in the year, Verlander and Halladay are likely to swap positions in the rankings several times before one (or somebody else) pulls clearly ahead. As of March 28, the rankings were as follows:
Rank
|
First
|
Last
|
Score
|
1
|
Justin
|
Verlander
|
564.9
|
2
|
Roy
|
Halladay
|
564.2
|
3
|
Cliff
|
Lee
|
552.2
|
4
|
Clayton
|
Kershaw
|
547.2
|
5
|
Cole
|
Hamels
|
531.9
|
6
|
Jered
|
Weaver
|
524.2
|
7
|
C.C.
|
Sabathia
|
520.7
|
8
|
Tim
|
Lincecum
|
509.5
|
9
|
Felix
|
Hernandez
|
506.7
|
10
|
Matt
|
Cain
|
505.9
|
11
|
Jon
|
Lester
|
503.5
|
12
|
C.J.
|
Wilson
|
497.5
|
13
|
Ian
|
Kennedy
|
497.3
|
14
|
Dan
|
Haren
|
495.1
|
15
|
Chris
|
Carpenter
|
493.2
|
16
|
Ricky
|
Romero
|
491.5
|
17
|
Yovani
|
Gallardo
|
490.3
|
18
|
James
|
Shields
|
487.6
|
19
|
Josh
|
Beckett
|
480.1
|
20
|
Ted
|
Lilly
|
480.0
|
21
|
Zack
|
Greinke
|
479.2
|
22
|
Colby
|
Lewis
|
478.5
|
23
|
Ubaldo
|
Jimenez
|
476.5
|
24
|
David
|
Price
|
476.3
|
25
|
Tim
|
Hudson
|
475.3
|
26
|
Wandy
|
Rodriguez
|
468.3
|
27
|
Javier
|
Vazquez
|
467.7
|
28
|
Hiroki
|
Kuroda
|
465.3
|
29
|
Ervin
|
Santana
|
463.9
|
30
|
Gio
|
Gonzalez
|
463.2
|
31
|
Matt
|
Garza
|
460.6
|
32
|
Doug
|
Fister
|
458.8
|
33
|
Johnny
|
Cueto
|
458.1
|
34
|
Max
|
Scherzer
|
457.4
|
35
|
Mat
|
Latos
|
457.0
|
36
|
Roy
|
Oswalt
|
456.1
|
37
|
Gavin
|
Floyd
|
454.0
|
38
|
Randy
|
Wolf
|
451.1
|
39
|
Daniel
|
Hudson
|
444.2
|
40
|
Shaun
|
Marcum
|
443.7
|
41
|
Jhoulys
|
Chacin
|
443.7
|
42
|
Anibal
|
Sanchez
|
443.3
|
43
|
Madison
|
Bumgarner
|
442.6
|
44
|
John
|
Danks
|
442.2
|
45
|
Edwin
|
Jackson
|
441.6
|
46
|
Derek
|
Holland
|
439.3
|
47
|
R.A.
|
Dickey
|
435.8
|
48
|
Mark
|
Buehrle
|
434.5
|
49
|
Brett
|
Myers
|
433.3
|
50
|
Chad
|
Billingsley
|
432.9
|
51
|
Joe
|
Saunders
|
432.3
|
52
|
Ryan
|
Dempster
|
431.3
|
53
|
Tommy
|
Hanson
|
429.1
|
54
|
Trevor
|
Cahill
|
425.2
|
55
|
Jeremy
|
Guthrie
|
424.9
|
56
|
Bronson
|
Arroyo
|
423.5
|
57
|
Brandon
|
Morrow
|
423.2
|
58
|
Jaime
|
Garcia
|
422.0
|
59
|
Justin
|
Masterson
|
421.5
|
60
|
A.J.
|
Burnett
|
421.1
|
61
|
Jair
|
Jurrjens
|
420.3
|
62
|
Matt
|
Harrison
|
417.8
|
63
|
Scott
|
Baker
|
417.2
|
64
|
Jonathan
|
Sanchez
|
413.3
|
65
|
Alexi
|
Ogando
|
411.2
|
66
|
Bud
|
Norris
|
410.5
|
67
|
Jeremy
|
Hellickson
|
409.4
|
68
|
John
|
Lannan
|
407.2
|
69
|
Carl
|
Pavano
|
406.3
|
70
|
Rick
|
Porcello
|
404.3
|
71
|
Ricky
|
Nolasco
|
403.5
|
72
|
Jeff
|
Niemann
|
402.5
|
73
|
Derek
|
Lowe
|
401.4
|
74
|
Jason
|
Hammel
|
400.4
|
75
|
Freddy
|
Garcia
|
400.4
|
76
|
Jason
|
Vargas
|
399.3
|
77
|
Bruce
|
Chen
|
399.3
|
78
|
Michael
|
Pineda
|
398.6
|
79
|
Francisco
|
Liriano
|
398.5
|
80
|
Chris
|
Narveson
|
397.1
|
81
|
John
|
Lackey
|
394.7
|
82
|
Luke
|
Hochevar
|
393.4
|
83
|
Josh
|
Collmenter
|
392.5
|
84
|
Livan
|
Hernandez
|
392.2
|
85
|
Mike
|
Leake
|
391.4
|
86
|
Brandon
|
McCarthy
|
390.7
|
87
|
Kyle
|
Lohse
|
389.6
|
88
|
Paul
|
Maholm
|
389.6
|
89
|
Mike
|
Pelfrey
|
389.5
|
90
|
Randy
|
Wells
|
389.4
|
91
|
Wade
|
Davis
|
388.3
|
92
|
Brandon
|
Beachy
|
388.1
|
93
|
Jordan
|
Zimmermann
|
387.9
|
94
|
Jake
|
Westbrook
|
386.5
|
95
|
Ryan
|
Vogelsong
|
385.5
|
96
|
Fausto
|
Carmona
|
385.5
|
97
|
Chris
|
Volstad
|
385.1
|
98
|
Ivan
|
Nova
|
385.1
|
99
|
Homer
|
Bailey
|
384.1
|
100
|
Aaron
|
Harang
|
382.8
|
101
|
Carlos
|
Zambrano
|
381.2
|
102
|
Philip
|
Humber
|
380.5
|
103
|
J.A.
|
Happ
|
379.7
|
104
|
James
|
McDonald
|
379.5
|
105
|
Brett
|
Cecil
|
375.9
|
106
|
Erik
|
Bedard
|
372.0
|
107
|
Tim
|
Stauffer
|
370.3
|
108
|
Chris
|
Capuano
|
370.1
|
109
|
Vance
|
Worley
|
369.5
|
110
|
Josh
|
Tomlin
|
368.3
|
111
|
Guillermo
|
Moscoso
|
367.0
|
112
|
Jonathon
|
Niese
|
366.2
|
113
|
Bartolo
|
Colon
|
366.2
|
114
|
Jeff
|
Karstens
|
365.0
|
115
|
Josh
|
Johnson
|
361.2
|
116
|
Joel
|
Pineiro
|
360.2
|
117
|
Charlie
|
Morton
|
359.5
|
118
|
Jeff
|
Francis
|
358.9
|
119
|
Phil
|
Hughes
|
358.9
|
120
|
Clay
|
Buchholz
|
357.7
|
121
|
Cory
|
Luebke
|
355.9
|
122
|
Joe
|
Blanton
|
355.2
|
123
|
Tim
|
Wakefield
|
353.4
|
124
|
Kyle
|
Kendrick
|
351.8
|
125
|
Dillon
|
Gee
|
348.3
|
126
|
Nick
|
Blackburn
|
347.8
|
127
|
Felipe
|
Paulino
|
346.3
|
128
|
Kevin
|
Correia
|
345.0
|
129
|
Brian
|
Duensing
|
343.8
|
130
|
Jason
|
Marquis
|
342.1
|
131
|
Barry
|
Zito
|
340.1
|
132
|
Rich
|
Harden
|
340.0
|
133
|
Jake
|
Peavy
|
338.8
|
134
|
Zachary
|
Britton
|
338.4
|
135
|
Travis
|
Wood
|
334.8
|
136
|
Brad
|
Penny
|
329.0
|
137
|
Edinson
|
Volquez
|
328.3
|
138
|
Clayton
|
Richard
|
322.6
|
139
|
Henderson
|
Alvarez
|
322.3
|
140
|
Blake
|
Beavan
|
321.8
|
141
|
Danny
|
Duffy
|
320.5
|
142
|
Aaron
|
Cook
|
320.4
|
143
|
Mike
|
Minor
|
319.8
|
144
|
Jorge
|
de la Rosa
|
319.3
|
145
|
Rodrigo
|
Lopez
|
318.1
|
146
|
Alfredo
|
Simon
|
317.1
|
147
|
Jake
|
Arrieta
|
316.0
|
148
|
Wade
|
LeBlanc
|
314.6
|
149
|
Tom
|
Gorzelanny
|
313.1
|
150
|
Tyler
|
Chatwood
|
312.8
|
151
|
Kevin
|
Millwood
|
312.5
|
152
|
Jo-Jo
|
Reyes
|
311.6
|
153
|
Carlos
|
Carrasco
|
311.5
|
154
|
Ross
|
Detwiler
|
311.3
|
155
|
Dontrelle
|
Willis
|
310.5
|
156
|
Ross
|
Ohlendorf
|
309.8
|
157
|
Chien-Ming
|
Wang
|
308.4
|
158
|
Juan
|
Nicasio
|
307.3
|
159
|
Jordan
|
Lyles
|
302.8
|
160
|
Stephen
|
Strasburg
|
302.7
|
161
|
Brad
|
Hand
|
301.8
|
162
|
Jerome
|
Williams
|
300.6
|
T 163
|
All
|
Others
|
300.0
|
I explained how these rankings are derived sometime last fall; the only thing I have changed is that I changed the time period until "long term inactivity penalties" kick in from 180 days to 210 days, since a good many pitchers each year are just not quite ready to start the season on time. Now, of course, we have had two games, which changes the rankings a little bit. Felix Hernandez has moved from 9th in the rankings to 8th, ahead of Tim Lincecum. As of April 4 the updated rankings will be:
Rank
|
First
|
Last
|
Score
|
1
|
Justin
|
Verlander
|
563.1
|
2
|
Roy
|
Halladay
|
562.4
|
3
|
Cliff
|
Lee
|
550.5
|
4
|
Clayton
|
Kershaw
|
545.5
|
5
|
Cole
|
Hamels
|
530.2
|
6
|
Jered
|
Weaver
|
522.4
|
7
|
C.C.
|
Sabathia
|
518.9
|
8
|
Felix
|
Hernandez
|
513.4
|
9
|
Tim
|
Lincecum
|
507.8
|
10
|
Matt
|
Cain
|
504.1
|
11
|
Jon
|
Lester
|
501.8
|
12
|
C.J.
|
Wilson
|
495.7
|
13
|
Ian
|
Kennedy
|
495.6
|
14
|
Dan
|
Haren
|
493.4
|
15
|
Chris
|
Carpenter
|
491.4
|
16
|
Ricky
|
Romero
|
489.8
|
17
|
Yovani
|
Gallardo
|
488.6
|
18
|
James
|
Shields
|
485.9
|
19
|
Josh
|
Beckett
|
478.3
|
20
|
Ted
|
Lilly
|
478.2
|
21
|
Zack
|
Greinke
|
477.4
|
22
|
Colby
|
Lewis
|
476.7
|
23
|
Ubaldo
|
Jimenez
|
474.7
|
24
|
David
|
Price
|
474.5
|
25
|
Tim
|
Hudson
|
473.6
|
26
|
Wandy
|
Rodriguez
|
466.6
|
27
|
Javier
|
Vazquez
|
465.9
|
28
|
Hiroki
|
Kuroda
|
463.6
|
29
|
Ervin
|
Santana
|
462.2
|
30
|
Gio
|
Gonzalez
|
461.5
|
31
|
Matt
|
Garza
|
458.9
|
32
|
Doug
|
Fister
|
457.1
|
33
|
Johnny
|
Cueto
|
456.4
|
34
|
Max
|
Scherzer
|
455.6
|
35
|
Mat
|
Latos
|
455.3
|
36
|
Roy
|
Oswalt
|
454.4
|
37
|
Gavin
|
Floyd
|
452.2
|
38
|
Randy
|
Wolf
|
449.4
|
39
|
Daniel
|
Hudson
|
442.5
|
40
|
Shaun
|
Marcum
|
442.0
|
41
|
Jhoulys
|
Chacin
|
441.9
|
42
|
Anibal
|
Sanchez
|
441.5
|
43
|
Madison
|
Bumgarner
|
440.9
|
44
|
John
|
Danks
|
440.4
|
45
|
Edwin
|
Jackson
|
439.8
|
46
|
Derek
|
Holland
|
437.6
|
47
|
R.A.
|
Dickey
|
434.1
|
48
|
Mark
|
Buehrle
|
432.8
|
49
|
Brett
|
Myers
|
431.6
|
50
|
Chad
|
Billingsley
|
431.2
|
51
|
Joe
|
Saunders
|
430.5
|
52
|
Ryan
|
Dempster
|
429.6
|
53
|
Trevor
|
Cahill
|
423.4
|
54
|
Jeremy
|
Guthrie
|
423.1
|
55
|
Tommy
|
Hanson
|
422.8
|
56
|
Bronson
|
Arroyo
|
421.7
|
57
|
Brandon
|
Morrow
|
421.4
|
58
|
Jaime
|
Garcia
|
420.2
|
59
|
Justin
|
Masterson
|
419.8
|
60
|
A.J.
|
Burnett
|
419.3
|
61
|
Jair
|
Jurrjens
|
417.8
|
62
|
Matt
|
Harrison
|
416.0
|
63
|
Scott
|
Baker
|
410.9
|
64
|
Alexi
|
Ogando
|
409.5
|
65
|
Bud
|
Norris
|
408.8
|
66
|
Jeremy
|
Hellickson
|
407.7
|
67
|
Jonathan
|
Sanchez
|
407.0
|
68
|
Jason
|
Vargas
|
406.9
|
69
|
John
|
Lannan
|
405.4
|
70
|
Carl
|
Pavano
|
404.6
|
71
|
Rick
|
Porcello
|
402.5
|
72
|
Ricky
|
Nolasco
|
401.7
|
73
|
Jeff
|
Niemann
|
400.8
|
74
|
Derek
|
Lowe
|
399.6
|
75
|
Jason
|
Hammel
|
398.7
|
76
|
Freddy
|
Garcia
|
398.7
|
77
|
Brandon
|
McCarthy
|
397.9
|
78
|
Bruce
|
Chen
|
397.5
|
79
|
Michael
|
Pineda
|
396.9
|
80
|
Chris
|
Narveson
|
395.3
|
81
|
John
|
Lackey
|
392.9
|
82
|
Francisco
|
Liriano
|
392.3
|
83
|
Luke
|
Hochevar
|
391.6
|
84
|
Josh
|
Collmenter
|
390.7
|
85
|
Livan
|
Hernandez
|
390.5
|
86
|
Mike
|
Leake
|
389.7
|
87
|
Kyle
|
Lohse
|
387.9
|
88
|
Mike
|
Pelfrey
|
387.7
|
89
|
Randy
|
Wells
|
387.6
|
90
|
Wade
|
Davis
|
386.6
|
91
|
Brandon
|
Beachy
|
386.4
|
92
|
Jake
|
Westbrook
|
384.7
|
93
|
Jordan
|
Zimmermann
|
383.9
|
94
|
Ryan
|
Vogelsong
|
383.8
|
95
|
Fausto
|
Carmona
|
383.7
|
96
|
Chris
|
Volstad
|
383.4
|
97
|
Ivan
|
Nova
|
383.4
|
98
|
Paul
|
Maholm
|
383.4
|
99
|
Homer
|
Bailey
|
382.4
|
100
|
Aaron
|
Harang
|
381.0
|
101
|
Philip
|
Humber
|
378.8
|
102
|
Bartolo
|
Colon
|
378.0
|
103
|
J.A.
|
Happ
|
377.9
|
104
|
James
|
McDonald
|
377.7
|
105
|
Carlos
|
Zambrano
|
374.9
|
106
|
Brett
|
Cecil
|
374.1
|
107
|
Erik
|
Bedard
|
370.3
|
108
|
Tim
|
Stauffer
|
368.5
|
109
|
Chris
|
Capuano
|
368.3
|
110
|
Vance
|
Worley
|
367.8
|
111
|
Guillermo
|
Moscoso
|
365.2
|
112
|
Jeff
|
Karstens
|
363.2
|
113
|
Josh
|
Tomlin
|
362.1
|
114
|
Jonathon
|
Niese
|
360.0
|
115
|
Joel
|
Pineiro
|
358.4
|
116
|
Charlie
|
Morton
|
357.8
|
117
|
Jeff
|
Francis
|
357.2
|
118
|
Phil
|
Hughes
|
357.1
|
119
|
Josh
|
Johnson
|
354.9
|
120
|
Cory
|
Luebke
|
354.2
|
121
|
Joe
|
Blanton
|
353.5
|
122
|
Tim
|
Wakefield
|
351.6
|
123
|
Clay
|
Buchholz
|
351.4
|
124
|
Kyle
|
Kendrick
|
350.1
|
125
|
Dillon
|
Gee
|
346.5
|
126
|
Felipe
|
Paulino
|
344.5
|
127
|
Brian
|
Duensing
|
342.1
|
128
|
Nick
|
Blackburn
|
341.5
|
129
|
Kevin
|
Correia
|
338.8
|
130
|
Rich
|
Harden
|
338.3
|
131
|
Jake
|
Peavy
|
337.0
|
132
|
Zachary
|
Britton
|
336.7
|
133
|
Jason
|
Marquis
|
335.8
|
134
|
Barry
|
Zito
|
333.8
|
135
|
Travis
|
Wood
|
333.1
|
136
|
Brad
|
Penny
|
327.3
|
137
|
Edinson
|
Volquez
|
326.5
|
138
|
Henderson
|
Alvarez
|
320.5
|
139
|
Blake
|
Beavan
|
320.0
|
140
|
Danny
|
Duffy
|
318.7
|
141
|
Aaron
|
Cook
|
318.6
|
142
|
Mike
|
Minor
|
318.0
|
143
|
Rodrigo
|
Lopez
|
316.4
|
144
|
Clayton
|
Richard
|
316.4
|
145
|
Alfredo
|
Simon
|
315.3
|
146
|
Jorge
|
de la Rosa
|
313.1
|
147
|
Wade
|
LeBlanc
|
312.9
|
148
|
Tyler
|
Chatwood
|
311.1
|
149
|
Kevin
|
Millwood
|
310.8
|
150
|
Jo-Jo
|
Reyes
|
309.8
|
151
|
Jake
|
Arrieta
|
309.7
|
152
|
Ross
|
Detwiler
|
309.6
|
153
|
Dontrelle
|
Willis
|
308.8
|
154
|
Ross
|
Ohlendorf
|
308.1
|
155
|
Tom
|
Gorzelanny
|
306.8
|
156
|
Chien-Ming
|
Wang
|
306.7
|
157
|
Carlos
|
Carrasco
|
305.2
|
158
|
Juan
|
Nicasio
|
301.1
|
159
|
Stephen
|
Strasburg
|
300.9
|
160
|
Brad
|
Hand
|
300.0
|
T 161
|
All
|
Others
|
300.0
|
I highlighted the new rankings of the starting pitchers who have worked so far, and Jerome Williams and Jordan Lyles have dropped out of the rankings in the last week. Some of you will, of course, want to argue with me about some of the rankings; this is the nature and purpose of doing rankings. But I’m not going to respond to any arguments right away; we’ll give it a little time so you can see how the system works, and then we’ll talk about it. Thanks.
Bill James