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Thrown From a Moving Vehicle

August 6, 2015
 My brother, an agreeable, good-natured sort of guy, once offered to throw me out of a moving car (that I was driving at the time) on the Taconic Parkway because I would not shut up about some of the loopy ideas about baseball I’m about to share with you, so if you want to stick around, please buckle up. And take a breath.

 

What would happen to the game of baseball if we were to make some radical rules changes? I’m not advocating making these changes in the time-honored rules of the game, not all of them anyway, but it’s a little unclear to me what would happen to Major League Baseball if we were, say, to move the fences out to 600 feet from the plate, or raise the fences to a minimum of thirty feet high.

 

Or both.  

 

Your first response might be "Terrible idea. No one would ever hit a home run ever again," but I’m not sure that home runs would decrease. Traditional home runs, the kind that disappear into the stands, sure—we’d never see those again. But isn’t that a kind of boring play? It’s really not a play at all, if you come to think about it a little. The ball goes out of play, the batter steps on all four bases but there’s never any attempt to tag him out at any of them, and you get a one-minute hiatus as he jogs around the basepaths and the pitcher glares at him. That’s exciting?

 

What would be exciting would be all the inside-the-park home runs that would result from a 30-foot high fence, 600 feet away.  Instead of seeing one or two inside-the-park home runs per season—and that’s the single most exciting play in baseball, in my opinion—you’d see one or two per game, wouldn’t you? Even with the outfielders positioning themselves extra-deep, which they would have to do, you’d still get a couple of hits into the gap between them every few innings, and the race would then be on. Any line drive that has even a chance to find a gap would get everyone in the stadium on his feet screaming, and those balls that bounce between outfielders would set up the most exciting half-minute of baseball you ever saw.

 

Think about what would result: every fielder would have to position himself to try to prevent the batter from getting a home run. You’d have two outfielders chasing down the ball that got between them, but the other outfielder would need to run IN towards the plate, to serve as the first cutoff man on a throw in, and then an infielder (probably the first baseman, since he’s out of the play from the get-go) would have to run out to the outfield to back him up and/or serve as a second cutoff man. You’d need about three perfect throws to get the ball into the catcher in time to nab the runner who’d be hustling his ass off to get around the bases before the ball could be returned to the plate.

 

(I also need to note, about here, that 600 feet, and 30 feet, are just arbitrary, off-the-top-of-my-head numbers. It may well be that those numbers need to be tweaked to give the results I’m speculating about here. But some fairly outrageous numbers will give those results.)

 

An exciting play, sure, but other things would necessarily change as well, and I think most of these changes are for the good: I said that the outfielders would position themselves much deeper, which they would, but the deeper positioning would also change other parts of the game. Base hits, singles, would increase if the outfielders were positioned 350 feet from home plate instead of the current 300 feet. It would be much more tempting for a fast baserunner to stretch one of those singles into a double, too—another very exciting play we rarely see these days. Perhaps stolen bases would be reduced, if stretching these singles becomes the better percentage way to advance to advance to second than the traditional stolen base.

 

All of the outfielders, it seems to me, would have be very skilled defensive players, too. In today’s game, teams can afford to have at least one slow, weak-throwing outfielder—the downside to having an immobile side of beef playing an outfield position is that maybe when a ball is hit over his head he’ll have to track it down after it bounces off the wall while the batter takes one extra base. Not such a big downside, if the fielder compensates by being a powerful hitter himself. But in my scheme, it would be very costly to put any defensively unskilled outfielder into the game: a batted ball past an outfielder, particularly an outfielder who takes his time getting to the ball and who can’t throw it effectively, will surely cost many more bases in the field than he can account for with his bat. This, again, would be a good thing. It would increase the number of exciting, talented, highly skilled players on the field performing difficult defensive acts. I wouldn’t be surprised if teams would need all three outfielders to have the defensive skills of today’s average centerfielder.

 

Would pitching be affected? Aside from groundball pitchers increasing in value (compared to pitchers who get more of their outs via flyballs), I would think that strikeouts would be more important, since simply hitting the ball anywhere would carry a certain amount of danger with it.  But preventing walks would also increase in importance. To put a man on first base, after all, would be to put him in virtual scoring position. (Now defined as "on a base beyond first base," that definition would expand to "on any base.") With outfielders playing much deeper, to prevent a ball hit into the gap, they would intercept more hits 400 or 450 feet from home plate, which would mean that a fast runner could score from first base much more easily. Again, would this make the stolen base a less attractive option? Would this mean that fewer runners would consider the risk of stealing a base to be worthwhile, since they wouldn’t really need to be beyond first base to score on a line-drive hit? Maybe.

 

Just in terms of boring baseball, eliminating some stolen bases would eliminate many of the tedious pickoff-throws that people complain about slowing the game down. It’s possible that pitchers might even encourage runners to try to steal second base if that would be an effective way to eliminate them on the basepaths, and it might not be as big as advantage anymore to be on second base rather than on first. 

 

So rather than reducing offense, 600-foot high, 30-foot tall fences might actually increase offense. The effect of making the fences unreachable would be, overall, to introduce more speed, defensive skill, and strategy into the game of baseball. I have further ideas on the subject of what these, and other radical changes in the rules, might cause, but I’m sure you’re reaching to unloosen your seat belt to pitch me out of this car doing 75 MPH, so I’ll pause for a while to let you catch your breath and get a word in edgewise.

 

 

 

 
 

COMMENTS (35 Comments, most recent shown first)

evanecurb
Steven:

I liked this article and found it thought-provoking. Most of us have probably played a lot of baseball and softball on fields with not fence. It's a completely different game - different skill set. As a left fielder, I often felt like a cornerback in one on one coverage when a hard shot was hit my way: stop it and it's a single or an out. Bad bounce, or miss it, and it's touch 'em all.

A couple of random thoughts, if anyone happens to still be out there:

I think it would be fun to see a PGA event played at a heavily used municipal golf course: the kind where the tee boxes are bare, the greens are bumpy, the fairways patchy, and sandtraps aren't raked.

I'd like to see more baseball fields with a centerfield fence of 385-390. Opposite of what you're talking about, but seriously fun.
9:24 AM Aug 16th
 
wovenstrap
I like this idea, but I'm going to tweak it a touch. Leave the fences far away but place mini fences in the left-center and right-center slots that are about as far as the fences are currently. You don't want every hard-hit line drive in the gap to be an automatic HR. Rather, you want hard-hit gappers to have about a 60% chance of hitting that wall at a reasonable distance and a 40% chance of scooting past it to one side. The announcers could talk about how close that one guy came to hitting a HR but it slammed into the first wall, leaving him with a double. And of course, anything that gets by the OFs in their standard positions is a threat to be a HR because the mini-walls only exist where the gaps now are.
1:34 AM Aug 14th
 
steve161
Mike, I've got a better idea: go east. You can get to Citi Field on the 7 train (parking is hell at Angels Stadium), the crowd actually pays attention to the ballgame and there are no beachballs.
1:56 PM Aug 12th
 
jwilt
Steven,
The issue with an OOTP sim is that it's all stats/park factors based, not physics. Which is fine, but it isn't the best way to figure out exactly what will happen when you make a park with unusual dimensions. So you'll enter figures like a triples factor of 225 (i.e. 125% more triples than an average park), or a LH HR factor of 110 (10% more homers for LH batters). That's regardless of the cosmetic differences you might enter in for fence dimensions.

You could have a park that's 600 feet all around with 40 foot walls, but if your park factors are all set at 100 it would play like a 330-375-400 park.

So you're kind of working backwards and making assumptions about what the park would do to the statistics. Works great for standard dimensions, and allows you to tweak for things like altitude or hitting background. But not so great for figuring the outcomes of theoretical what if situations.

I've argued with some success for the developers to tweak the handling of inside-the-park homers to at least get the text descriptions to be more realistic. You'd have a 500-ft fence and 95% of the homers would still be out of the park.
1:52 PM Aug 12th
 
mauimike
'such' I hate when that happens.
1:26 AM Aug 12th
 
mauimike
What happened to 337, Professor? Yes, the next time you come out West, we'll go to an Angels game and I'll buy you a beer. Bring evancurb, with you and he can be the moderating voice, but then we might not need one. Were all so reasonable fellows.
1:25 AM Aug 12th
 
Steven Goldleaf
Sounds pretty virtuous to me, AO in the HOF, DK being DQed from MLB. (These abbreviations drive Bill bonkers.)
1:30 PM Aug 11th
 
evanecurb
Batting average on balls in play goes way up. Cost of strikeouts and double plays (all all outs, for that matter), also goes way up. Fewer home runs, but also fewer bunts, fewer stolen bases. Al Oliver becomes a Hall of Famer, and Dave Kingman never plays in the major leagues.
2:25 PM Aug 9th
 
mauimike
Professor good to have you back. I'm glad to see that you are sticking it to the man and have become a hardcore capitalist. If you're lucky they won't file a 1099 on your ass. I'm still working for free. Each according to his need I guess. 600 foot fences. 30 feet high walls. As I read the article I began to think, ROLLERBALL. I haven't seen the movie in 40 years, but without the violence it seems to be where you're headed. Is every stadium gonna have it's own Green Monster? Do they all have to be Green, or can we paint it Blue in SoCal, you know the ocean and stuff. With an outfield so big, the guys are gonna need rollerblades to cover the damn thing. Maybe a motorcycle of two. No just one. Two would be too much. The centerfielder should have the motorcycle. Just stay the hell out of his way. He could have a sidecar and the right fielder could make a play, but it would be hard. On the plus side, you wouldn't need many pitchers. What would be the point of throwing hard, with sliders and curves, when a ground ball between 3rd and short, could roll 600 feet. Better to just throw it underarm. ERA's are gonna be over 10, why bother. 4 or 5 pitchers should be enough, the other 20 guys on the roster should be Ichiro, type of players, (not that's there's anything wrong with that) guys who can hit an run, like the 1985 Cardinals, only with 200 extra feet and no Jack Clark HR's. I went to a baseball game and a track meet broke out. Not that anyone remembers what a track meet is. I think you got it Professor. Baseball, no pitching. With a bunch of small fast guys, running all over the damn place. Sounds like soccer to me and you know what I think of soccer. And if you don't, ask your BOSS.
6:38 AM Aug 8th
 
Steven Goldleaf
Jwilt--I'd be interested in hearing more about the simulations you've been doing. The 600-foot (and 30 foot high) stuff was just my hyperbolic self hyperbolically being hyperbolical, and I'm glad to see that people have more sensible ideas for the actual distance and height involved to achieve the ends I'd like to achieve here, which is making OOTP HRs a thing of the past. (My first thought by the way was that OOTP stood for "out of toilet paper," which is a whole other kind of crisis.) 500 feet and fifteen feet high seems eminently sensible and capable of having that sort of result, and I like the idea of a very rare OOTP monster HR, the kind you tell your grandkids about. How might we compute the ideal distance for a maximum number of close plays at the plate? Thanks to everyone for your very humane decision to keep me, so far, inside the car-- I'm looking forward to sharing other ideas with you all in a few weeks. And to MarisFan61, I hadn't thought of it, but if this idea would keep John Sterling's voice far from my earshot, I'd go for it on that basis alone.
4:28 PM Aug 7th
 
jwilt
Also, Camden Yards has an area beyond the CF fence where they grow extra turf. Behind that is a 30' or 40' concrete wall maybe 475' from the plate that also serves as the hitter's background. I always thought the park would be more interesting if that turf area was in play. No one has ever cleared that wall, and I don't believe anyone has ever hit it on the fly.
1:22 PM Aug 7th
 
jwilt
I think it would be better if a few teams had really long/high fences. And some other teams had wildly asymmetrical parks, like 275 to left, 550 to center, 380 to right. And the rest were the same as today. That might encourage both multi-faceted players who could play in a variety of stadiums, as well as a few very specialized players to try to take advantage of their home parks. As Bill has said in the past, strategy comes from differences and differences of opinion and differences in what might work. Imagine modern analytics departments trying to wrap their heads around how to win in that park that has almost no LF, but a center that goes on forever.

I've long run computer baseball leagues on simulations like OOTP that are just like this. Quite a few parks with dimensions and park effects far outside modern MLB norms. And I've even engaged the OOTP development team to try to get more realistic treatment of inside-the-park home runs in very large stadiums.
1:19 PM Aug 7th
 
bearbyz
How about 500 feet all the way around with a 15 foot high fence. It would significantly lower the number of over the fence home runs, but it would make it a real event when someone does hit it out of the park. What percent of home runs now go over 500 feet? I would think 10 percent at most, but that is just a guess.
12:21 PM Aug 7th
 
jgf704
The 600 feet away fence idea can't happen, of course. But the 30 ft high fence could. Of course, the upper parts (say, above 15 feet) it would probably need to be made of transparent plastic, or be a chain link fence, or netting, so as not to block fans' views. A wrinkle: you could also allow teams to employ different types of materials with different amounts of springiness (coefficients of restitution) at different places on the wall. Hit it to dead center? That's off the net, and the ball falls straight down. Down the line in right? Here there is super hard plastic, and the ball bounces far.

Another wrinkle in this (perhaps toss-me-out-of-the-plane worthy): different wall angles at different places on the wall, so that the ball bounces in a different direction depending on exactly where on the wall it hits.

OK, another one: holes at random places in the wall, and balls that go into the holes are traditional homers. Yes, I've just birthed the concept of the Skee-ball home run. :)
8:48 AM Aug 7th
 
MattGoodrich
I play in a softball league that is pretty much what you describe. There is a fenced tennis court in LCF, but unlimited grass everywhere else. There are a lot of deep balls to LF that make the batter run and take multiple relay throws to get back in. I think it's WAY more interesting and exciting.

We get a lot of triples of course, but we also see more doubles because the outfielders sometimes have to run in so far on a single.

Ironically, it can also help the pitching because some batters will try to crush it over the outfielders no matter how deep they're playing. You just play the outfielders deep and catch those really deep fly balls.
1:39 AM Aug 7th
 
Richallen7
They used to have a big old outfield at Huntington Avenue and a toolshed in play at deep CF. That would have been quite fun as well.

I like your idea. Maybe an exhibition series to be played in a temporary stadium in Salt Lake or somethin?
12:42 AM Aug 7th
 
OldBackstop
Sorry for dribbling. Having almost puked my guts out running around in centerfield a few innings, I would just say the numbers don't work, even at 550 feet. On anything that goes over the wall or to it now, or into a gap, you are having guys run an 80 yard dash and relay the ball in from nearly two football fields away.

The fastest guys around the paths now are under 15 seconds...there would be stand up homers all day long.

Anyway...forget picking the number apart, you mean to homer-proof parks. A discussable topic.
9:30 PM Aug 6th
 
ventboys
Welcome back, Steve, and congratulations on your new position. I like the outside the box thinking, and part of what I think makes an idea like this interesting is that, had the powers that be been given the option in 1880, it could have happened. As several other guys have alluded to, stadium geometry was dictated in large part by the layout of city blocks. Finding an area this large might have been a problem in 1880, but actually might not be today, with the massive amounts of money being made - certainly enough to buy out a couple of city blocks in most areas. Manhattan would be expensive, but Brooklyn? Queens? Detroit? Havana?
9:20 PM Aug 6th
 
Davidg32
Interesting idea. At 600 feet all around, you're almost doubling the distance down the lines.

I wonder if you'd see teams employing a shift, especially with nobody on base...maybe move the third basemen out into the outfield, and play a four-deep softball-type outfield?

Would it make the line-drive hitters the most valuable type of hitter? I don't think we would see the big strong guys who strike out 150+ times and hit 35+ home runs like you do today. For one thing, just about every one of those long fly ball type of homers would be caught.

When I was in high school, our baseball field was in the same walled-in area as our football field, and the back line of one end zone was exactly parallel to the baseline from second to third, only 20 yards behind it. So that meant that our left field was basically the football field, and the fence was about 480 feet away. Our left fielder was a short guy...very fast, pretty good glove, but only an average arm. On anything hit into left field, our shortstop was expected to go running out immediately just as fast as he could, hoping to get a relay. (Our right field fence was only 260 down the line. Can't tell you how many times I wished I were a left-hander...)
8:30 PM Aug 6th
 
flyingfish
Nice article, and welcome to the site, Steve. I had the same immediate thought as Marisfan61, which is that it would cost a lot of money to quadruple the area of the park or whatever would happen (I'm too lazy to do the easy geometry). Average ballparks now are around 2.5 acres. Also, I'd miss one of my favorite home-run calls: "That ball is not playable."

You'd be safe in my car, although I'm not so sure about your brother. And Oldbackstop; 5 times for the same comment?


8:22 PM Aug 6th
 
MarisFan61
You can say that again.... :-)
8:17 PM Aug 6th
 
OldBackstop
Hey Steve,

I think at 600 feet all the way around, there would be nothing but world class sprinters employed, probably four across. The shifts we see now would be with a shortfielder like softball. You are roughly doubling the playing field....you'd lose an infielder....dink hits falling in...less ground ball outs....football scores.

I remember playing center in high school, and I went from our home field of 345 to a field where it was 410...and it was just stunning how much more territory you were expected to cover.

At 483 in dead center there were only a handful of balls hit out to there at the Polo Grounds. I don't think you'd need 600...anything that got to the wall 483 feet away definitely cleared the bases and was probably an inside-the-parker anyway.

And who is going to cut the damn lawn?


6:23 PM Aug 6th
 
OldBackstop
Hey Steve,

I think at 600 feet all the way around, there would be nothing but world class sprinters employed, probably four across. The shifts we see now would be with a shortfielder like softball. You are roughly doubling the playing field....you'd lose an infielder....dink hits falling in...less ground ball outs....football scores.

I remember playing center in high school, and I went from our home field of 345 to a field where it was 410...and it was just stunning how much more territory you were expected to cover.

At 483 in dead center there were only a handful of balls hit out to there at the Polo Grounds. I don't think you'd need 600...anything that got to the wall 483 feet away definitely cleared the bases and was probably an inside-the-parker anyway.

And who is going to cut the damn lawn?


6:23 PM Aug 6th
 
OldBackstop
Hey Steve,

I think at 600 feet all the way around, there would be nothing but world class sprinters employed, probably four across. The shifts we see now would be with a shortfielder like softball. You are roughly doubling the playing field....you'd lose an infielder....dink hits falling in...less ground ball outs....football scores.

I remember playing center in high school, and I went from our home field of 345 to a field where it was 410...and it was just stunning how much more territory you were expected to cover.

At 483 in dead center there were only a handful of balls hit out to there at the Polo Grounds. I don't think you'd need 600...anything that got to the wall 483 feet away definitely cleared the bases and was probably an inside-the-parker anyway.

And who is going to cut the damn lawn?


6:23 PM Aug 6th
 
OldBackstop
Hey Steve,

I think at 600 feet all the way around, there would be nothing but world class sprinters employed, probably four across. The shifts we see now would be with a shortfielder like softball. You are roughly doubling the playing field....you'd lose an infielder....dink hits falling in...less ground ball outs....football scores.

I remember playing center in high school, and I went from our home field of 345 to a field where it was 410...and it was just stunning how much more territory you were expected to cover.

At 483 in dead center there were only a handful of balls hit out to there at the Polo Grounds. I don't think you'd need 600...anything that got to the wall 483 feet away definitely cleared the bases and was probably an inside-the-parker anyway.

And who is going to cut the damn lawn?


6:23 PM Aug 6th
 
OldBackstop
Hey Steve,

I think at 600 feet all the way around, there would be nothing but world class sprinters employed, probably four across. The shifts we see now would be with a shortfielder like softball. You are roughly doubling the playing field....you'd lose an infielder....dink hits falling in...less ground ball outs....football scores.

I remember playing center in high school, and I went from our home field of 345 to a field where it was 410...and it was just stunning how much more territory you were expected to cover.

At 483 in dead center there were only a handful of balls hit out to there at the Polo Grounds. I don't think you'd need 600...anything that got to the wall 483 feet away definitely cleared the bases and was probably an inside-the-parker anyway.

And who is going to cut the damn lawn?


6:22 PM Aug 6th
 
OldBackstop
Hey Steve,

I think at 600 feet all the way around, there would be nothing but world class sprinters employed, probably four across. The shifts we see now would be with a shortfielder like softball. You are roughly doubling the playing field....you'd lose an infielder....dink hits falling in...less ground ball outs....football scores.

I remember playing center in high school, and I went from our home field of 345 to a field where it was 410...and it was just stunning how much more territory you were expected to cover.

At 483 in dead center there were only a handful of balls hit out to there at the Polo Grounds. I don't think you'd need 600...anything that got to the wall 483 feet away definitely cleared the bases and was probably an inside-the-parker anyway.

Any who is going to cut the damn lawn?


6:22 PM Aug 6th
 
archieleach
We had this once before. Essentially, you are describing baseball as played by Honus Wagner, Cap Anson and (young) Ty Cobb. Those fences were pretty far back, for the type of balls they used. There were fewer over-the-fence homers. And far more inside-the-park. More triples, too.
But, I LIKE it. Basketball went through an era, where the game was just toss the ball in to the Big Guy and let him try to score. SLO--OO--OOOW game They put in a 3-point line to open things up for shooters. And to make it worthwhile to shoot from out.
Baseball suffers from a similar problem. All the BIG GUYS, and little guys, are swinging for the fences. The "dead time" you referred to is not just the minute it takes to round the bases. It's the "dead time" of 30% Strikeout rates. Opening the field might bring fielders back into the game. Let's TRY it.
4:16 PM Aug 6th
 
Gfletch
Damn, in my comment the 105 at the end was meant to be 10%
4:04 PM Aug 6th
 
Gfletch
Fun article. Was tempted to see what kind of data exist on IPH vs regular homers, so went looking. Best information I could find was at http://research.sabr.org/journals/inside-the-park-home-runs

but though interesting, the data was hardly comprehensive. Best I could glean was the impression that some of the best parks for IPH were, indeed, those where the outfield fences were far away. In particular, though, it seems to me that parks with particularly deep centerfield areas were good for this. Check this regarding the Polo Grounds:

"The Polo Grounds in New York was another park where plenty of home runs were hit into the stands, but a fair number were also hit inside the grounds. The right and left field foul lines were the shortest in the majors and even a little guy like Rabbit Maranville could pull one in there; yet, if a player could hit the ball past the center fielder he had a good chance of making four bases before the ball could be retrieved. When parks like this were closed down, the number of IPH was systematically reduced."

These dimensions have appeal to me, and might be conducive to both types of homers.

What information was in the article indicted to me that a return to parks such as the Polo Grounds and Griffith Stadium might bring IPH backfrom around 2-3% to possible as much as 105 of all home runs. Or maybe it would just reduce all home runs drastically.
4:03 PM Aug 6th
 
steve161
Having been a science fiction reader all my life, I enjoy speculation about things that aren't ever going to happen, so I found this article entertaining and look forward to more. I'm not actually sure by any means that it would be a better game, but it would certainly be different--and probably still more to my liking than the NFL or the NBA.

CarpeDiem raises a very interesting practical aspect to it. Since you'd have to build 30 new ballparks to realize this scheme, you'd also have to deal with the issue of sightlines. And it's not only the bleachers that are a problem. So are the seats in the outfield corners. It's an interesting challenge for a stadium architect.

Let me finally add my standard objection to the notion that those aspects of strategy and tactics that don't involve knocking the snot out of the ball--in this case, throwing to first to hold a runner--are boring. It's this kind of thinking that gave us the Designated Hitter.
3:00 PM Aug 6th
 
raincheck
How about just putting holes at the bottom of the wall so that balls could roll under the wall and out into the parking lot. The shots of outfielders crawling under cars and stretching to retrieve the ball on the stadium big screen would be very exciting. And the runners could just keep circling the bases, scoring multiple runs, until it was retrieved and thrown in, greatly increasing the value of base running skills and boosting the current anemic scoring levels.


1:53 PM Aug 6th
 
MarisFan61
What about the effect on announcing?

Are you really ready to stop hearing "It is high, it is far......" :-)

I love all the things you describe about what would happen, and I love the inside-the-park HR, but the love depends in large part on its rarity. Likewise the triple. Would they be so exciting if they happened every inning?

Besides, everybody loves the outside-the-park home run, and not just because of the announcing. That's one of the most exciting and dramatic plays in baseball too. Losing it would be a a major loss.

Oh -- and then there's the biggest problem about this: REAL ESTATE.
It would be tough to come up with that much more land for ballparks.

Nevertheless, this isn't a kind of idea that would make me throw someone out of the car. It's a kind of thing that would make me want to get someone into the car. :-)
12:54 PM Aug 6th
 
CarpeDiem
Interesting article and nice to have you on board. How would it feel to sit in the outfield bleachers?
12:30 PM Aug 6th
 
Riceman1974
I would love to see this experiment for a season. It might just work. You can stay in the car...for now.​
12:27 PM Aug 6th
 
 
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