3. To A Friend about the KU Basketball Team
I get the sense from a couple of e-mails that you have developed some passing, tournament-time interest in the Kansas University Jayhawks. I have an abiding interest in the Jayhawks, and I thought I would try to explain them to you; I might perhaps publish this in a slightly different form, but I am writing it in response to your comments.
To explain the 2017-2018 Jayhawks briefly, we all have the sense that they are not as good this year as they have been in several other recent seasons, and this is not a year that they are likely to win the National Championship, although (1) they somehow did manage to salvage a #1 seed, and (2) they are still alive and in the Sweet Sixteen.
Early in the season the Jayhawks lost several games to teams that wouldn’t ordinarily beat them, and also lost several games in Allen Fieldhouse; I think it was three games. That wasn’t quite the whole problem. We also WON about ten games not by convincingly defeating the opposition, but because Bill Self has a near-miraculous ability to pull a win out of his ass after the game is nearly lost. You know that in Allen Fieldhouse we do the slow, spooky version of the Rock Chalk chant in the last minute of the game, after the game has been won; it’s a kind of way of saying "Thanks for playing" to the defeated team.
Well, this year we had like six straight WINS in which we never got to do the Rock Chalk chant, because we never had the game won. We’d be tied or 3 points behind with 20 seconds to play, although somehow the boys would pull it out. Bill Self’s teams are amazing in that way—so much so that when you watch the NCAA tournament, you are kind of astonished at how bad other teams are at closing out a game. These razor-thin wins didn’t hurt us with the NCAA seeding committee, because they are deeply committed to the philosophy that a 1-point win is the same as a 20-point win although a win against the 50th best team in the country is totally different than a win against the 51st best team, but it created a perception among Jayhawk fans that we’re really not that good this year.
KU will close out a win if it is there for them, but you know. . . they’re not the only team in the country that is trained to do that. One thing that happens in the NCAA tournament is that you run into somebody else who ALSO knows how to close out a win, and then you’re nine points behind with 3 minutes to play, you’re just going to lose.
To describe the KU team in four bullet points:
1) Probably all five starters are NBA players, but not one of them is likely an NBA starter, although a couple of them will got opportunities to be NBA starters,
2) Depth has been a problem all year,
3) The five players don’t fit the five roles that define a standard basketball team, however,
4) We’re playing better entering the tournament than we have played all year, which is very unusual for us.
It is pretty much the exact opposite of the 2013-2014 team, which had:
1) Two NBA All-Stars (Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid),
2) Phenomenal Depth,
3) At least one player who filled every one of the five traditional spots, but
4) Limped into the tournament banged up and not playing well.
Phenomenal depth. . .we had Tarik Black, an NBA player, backing up Embiid, and Landen Lucas backing up Black. We had six other very talented players, behind the two NBA stars and the two high-quality backup centers: Perry Ellis, Frank Mason, Wayne Selden, Andrew White, Brannen Greene, and Jamari Traylor. We had Hunter Mickelson and Nadiir Tharpe, not that they were great but they would definitely get minutes for this team, the 2017-2018 team, and we had Connor Frankamp early in the season, before he left the team because he couldn’t get on the floor more than a couple of minutes a game. But we limped into the post-season without Embiid and with three or four other guys banged up, and we went out in the second round.
This team doesn’t have the depth, doesn’t have the NBA All Stars, doesn’t have even NORMAL depth, but is playing its best ball of the season. Our three best players are Udoke Azubuike, Devonte Graham and Malik Newman. Devonte is basically the same player as Frank Mason, who was the NCAA Player of the Year a year ago; honestly, I have always thought that Graham was a tiny bit better than Frank, a little bit quicker and with more offensive moves, but Frank got here first and owned the point guard position until he graduated, and I loved Frank, too, but I think Devonte is better.
Udoke Azubuike is not Joel Embiid, but he is an NBA center. He is listed at 7 foot and looks taller, and he’s a BIG seven foot; he is wide and powerful. His hands look too large for his body, which makes them REALLY large, and he has good hands. It is basically impossible to stop him from scoring around the basket, since he is bigger and stronger than almost anyone he will play against, he has a few simple pivot moves, and he hits 75% of his shots. . .actually something more than 75%. There are four things that limit his value: 1) he is not quick, 2) he gets into foul trouble, which often cost him minutes, 3) he can’t hit his foul shots, so he has to come out late in the game with a lead or the other team will foul him every possession, and 4) he has been prone to injuries. (He is not quick or light on his feet, but he is also not slow or awkward. He’s just not quick.) But if he gets the ball within three feet of the basket, it’s over; there isn’t anyone in college who can stop him from scoring. You might as well head down court.
Malik Newman is a remarkable offensive player. He is extremely quick, handles the ball well, and he’s a deadly shooter. His scoring average, 13.4, doesn’t really reflect his offensive ability; all five of our guys share the offense, but Malik is the only one who could score 28 a game if the offense was geared to him like some teams are. He can cut through the defense like a cat going through a garden, and he has moves. . .real moves. He’ll leave laundry on the floor. And he’s a hell of a shooter.
Devonte, Malik and Svi Mykhailiuk all shoot over 40% from three-point range and over 80% from the foul line. The theory is that if Doke (Udoke) forces the other team to sag on him to prevent him from scoring on every possession, then somebody has to be open on the perimeter, and this usually works. Of course, if you live by the three, you die by the three, so. . .the odds are we’ll have a game somewhere in the tournament when we go 7-for-30 shooting threes, and we’ll lose.
Lagerald Vick has kind of been the lost man this year. Coming into the season it was thought that he might be the team’s leading scorer, and that he might be the best NBA prospect on the roster. He also is extremely quick and a pretty good shooter, but he’s not the shooter that the other three guys are, and can’t handle the ball on the dribble the way that Malik and Devonte can, although this is not a weakness, but he’s just not at their level. Our lack of a power forward has put pressure on Lagerald to crash the boards, and this is not a natural role for him. On another team there’d be a #4 to hit the boards and Lagerald could leak out and be a transition player, but because of the makeup of the team he just can’t do that, so he is kind of out of his natural role. Also sometimes he gets defensive assignments that are three or four inches taller than he is.
We’re not a GREAT team, not as good as the 2013-2014 team, which lost in the second round, or the National Championship team in 2008 or the great team in the late 90s that lost to Arizona. We will lose the rebounding battle to any and every good team, but will win the loose ball battle and the turnover battle most of the time, not because of hustle but because we’re just quicker than anybody else. It’s a likeable team and it’s playing well, and we’ll win until we have a game when there is a lid on the basket or we have a game where we get outrebounded 39 to 22.