This "Article", In a Nutshell
Basically, I'm asking for some insight into what's important to you regarding Hall of Fame evaluation, and then later on, I'll report on the results.
If you're the type who likes to cut to the chase, feel free to skip to the bottom of the article and complete the survey. It's fairly self-explanatory, although I personally think it's worth a review of how I'm defining the terminology so that we're all on the same page.
Your Input is Requested
We ask for reader input and participation quite a bit on this site. We hold our annual "Gallery of Renown" (GOR) elections for an alternative Hall of Fame, which many of you participate in. We have our annual Hall of Fame BBWAA voting prediction contest. In addition, in the Reader Posts section of this site, there have been many member-led initiatives over the years, including "Retroactive Honors" (which goes back in time to bestow annual awards to players, even predating the actual awards that were given), the "Hall of Fame Fielding Wing" (which honors players based solely on defensive prowess), plus many others.
Today, I'm reaching out for something a little different. I'm interested in what's important to YOU when it comes to evaluating Baseball Hall of Fame candidates. What factors do you consider to be important? How much weight do you put on different things? What tools do you use? If you had a vote, how would you approach it?
I'm conducting a survey and will tabulate your responses. Will it be scientific? No, of course not. I don't intend to draw any grand conclusions that the responses here reflect fans, Hall of Fame voters, or anyone else. But I hope it measures a bit of the pulse of Bill James readers, or at least those who frequent this site, and gives us some insight as to how we tend to look at the Hall of Fame.
What Makes for a Good Hall of Famer?
"The Hall of Fame is a self-defining institution that has manifestly failed to define itself"
- Bill James, The Bill James Historical Abstract (1985, page 175)
That quote above from Bill more than 35 years ago has stuck with me over the years. I think it's still largely true. But one thing that I also believe is true is that the Hall of Fame probably kind of likes it that way, at least to some degree. Jeff Idelson, the President of the Hall of Fame from 2008-2019, has indicated in interviews over the years that Hall of Fame intentionally doesn't give a lot of direction on various things (such as the infamous "character clause") because they want to leave it open for each voter to interpret what it means to be a Hall of Famer, and how that should factor in to each person's voting decision.
One of principles that I've held to over the years is that, in essence, each of us has our own unique idea about what a Hall of Famer is. There is no universal definition nor one single approach to evaluating a Hall of Fame candidate. I'm sure we largely agree that we're looking for greatness rather than goodness, but exactly how does that manifest itself? What should it be based on? Which factors are important, and which ones are trivial?
Anyway, that's where you come in. I have my own ideas of what makes for a good Hall of Fame candidate, and I'll eventually put them out there, but right now I want to try to find our yours.
Survey
I've developed a little survey that I hope you will participate in. It's a short one, so it won't take much of your time, probably less time than it takes to read this setup. I thought about using something like Survey Monkey to administer it, but I think we can just handle it through the comments section at the bottom of the article.
I'm going to ask just 2 questions in my survey. That's it.
· The first question will try to capture which criteria are important to you when considering a Hall of Fame candidate (as well as how much weight you put on each one)
· The second question will ask you about your usage of some common Hall of Fame candidate evaluation "tools", for lack of a better word.
Overview of Question 1
For the first question, I'm providing you a list of 10 factors that might be considered in evaluating a Hall of Fame candidate. I'm asking you to tell me not only which factors matter to you, but also how much each one matters.
· For each factor, I am asking you to assign a numerical value (between 0 and 100) that conveys how important that factor is to you in evaluating a candidate. Integers/whole numbers would be appreciated, but if you must use decimals, go ahead.
· Very important.....the sum of the numerical values of all 10 factors must total 100.
· If a factor isn't important to you or isn't generally something you put any weight on, give it a zero (or simply leave it blank).
· Please keep to the predefined list as much as possible. If you have additional factors that you can't reasonably capture in the 10 areas provided, you may add your own, but hopefully you can stick to the predefined 10.
How did I decide on the 10 factors? It was a combination of things. I was influenced by questions that are present on Bill's famous "Keltner List". I looked at the components of the Hall of Fame Monitor. I was influenced by an approach called "The Test" that one of our members, Terry ("Ventboys") regularly uses in Hall of Fame type discussions. I was influenced by my own experiences. And then, I selected 10 that I thought represented a decent variety of areas and considerations.
Below are the 10 categories/areas that I'm asking for you for feedback on as to how important they are to you in the context of Hall of Fame evaluation. They are listed alphabetically.
· Awards & Honors
· Career statistical category totals/milestones/leader boards
· Career value
· Character/integrity/sportsmanship/reputation
· Comparison to others (such as Similarity Scores)
· Contribution to successful and/or championship teams
· Elite relative to peers (at his position and/or his teams)
· Gut feel
· Peak value
· Seasonal category performance (such as black/gray ink)
So we can establish some common ground, here's how I'm defining them:
Awards & Honors
Pretty straightforward. This would include the candidate's performance in things such as MVP awards, Cy Young awards, Gold Gloves, Silver Sluggers, Rookie of the Year, making All Star rosters, etc.
Career statistical category totals/milestones/leaderboards
By career stats, I'm referring to basic category stats, not summary stats like WAR or Win Shares, because we have those covered elsewhere, and I think they represent different perspective than basic career totals do.
This category would be more in the vein of "traditional" career stats - hits, home runs, RBI, wins, saves, things like that. And reaching significant career milestones (3,000 hits, 300 wins, etc.) or finishing high on career leader board(s) are closely related enough that I think they can be included here.
Career value
Basically what I'm referring to here are summary statistics such as a player's career WAR and/or career Win Shares. I'm not distinguishing between the two, so it doesn't matter which you prefer or if you like both, and it also doesn't matter in this context which form of WAR you prefer (baseball-reference.com, Fangraphs, etc.). What I'm trying to capture here is how important leveraging a single, summary career quantitative metric is to you in evaluating a candidate.
Character/integrity/sportsmanship/reputation
Again, a bit of a wide net, but the so called "Character Clause", which covers most of the concepts in the category description (I added "reputation"), is part of the Hall of Fame voting guidelines. The clause which states:
"Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played."
So, the clause covers more than "character", but that's mostly what people think of when referring to it. It's definitely part of the voting guidelines, but how important is it to you? Does good character help? Does bad character hurt? Is it something you consider?
This would also be an appropriate place to indicate if you hold steroid usage or allegations, or anything else of a similar nature, against a candidate. If something like that matters to you, try to determine how much weight you put on it.
Comparison to others (such as Similarity Scores)
This is basically the same as question 7 on the Keltner List: "Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?"
Similarity Scores remain a popular feature available on baseball-reference.com. They are often used to make quick comparisons to players who have demonstrated basic statistical similarity to both Hall of Famers and non-Hall of Famers alike.
Also included in this category would be the more generic notion of "comparison to others". This could be by some other method besides actual Similarity Scores. For example, if you think a candidate is similar to another, even in a non-statistical way, how much does that factor into your thinking when considering a candidate?
Contribution to successful and/or championship teams
Pretty self explanatory. How important is team success to you when considering a Hall of Fame candidate?
I would also use this category to capture postseason performance. For example, if you tend to give players like Curt Schilling a lot of credit for their postseason performance or you hold it against Billy Wagner because of his lack of postseason success, this is a good place to reflect that importance. Again, it's not exactly the same thing.....but close enough to include it here.
Elite relative to peers (at his position and/or his teams)
This sounds similar to the "comparison to others" option above, but it's a little different. What I'm trying to capture here are essentially questions 2 and 3 from Bill's famous "Keltner List" approach. That is:
· Was he the best player on his team?
· Was he the best player in baseball (or in the league) at his position?
Those are 2 separate questions, but I think they're close enough in nature to combine as far as relative importance.
I'll use one of my personal favorite sleeper Hall of Fame candidates (Tigers catcher Bill Freehan) as an example to illustrate this category......
Maybe you think being the best at a position during a particular "era" is important (i.e., you may think Freehan is the best pure catcher of the 1960's) and that would be a strong plus for a candidate. Or maybe you think Freehan is one of the top 15-20 catchers in history and that you consider that to be a Hall of Fame level of performance. Or, maybe you think Freehan was one of the key leaders on a Detroit team that was consistently good from the early 1960's to the mid 1970's, including winning a World Series, and that's another feather in his cap.
If any or all of those types of questions matter to you and factor into your thinking, this would be a good place to reflect that.
Gut feel
Also known as as the former Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart approach of "I know it when I see it".
I'm not including this category to be cavalier. I think this is a perfectly valid way to evaluate a Hall of Fame candidate. I'm sure many people put considerable weight on this factor, and I'm sure many people don't feel like they have to go through a laundry list of variables or checklists or research to help them decide on a candidate. I've seen many voters state that, if they have to ask themselves whether a candidate is a Hall of Famer or not, that's a good indicator that he's not a Hall of Famer. A candidate is either a Hall of Famer in his or her mind, or not. So, I want to capture how much of a factor that is for you.
Peak value
Similar to what was referred to under careen quantitative value, basically what I'm referring to here are summary statistics such as WAR and/or Win Shares, but over a shorter time frame. If you think a player's peak is important, this is where you would reflect that.
I don't really care to distinguish between the length of the peak you prefer. JAWS uses top 7 seasons of WAR (not necessarily consecutive), some prefer 5, others prefer 3. Some prefer consecutive, some don't. That part's not important to me. And, again, I don't care whether you prefer WAR or Win Shares or something else. What I'm trying to capture here is how important leveraging a player's peak performance (however you measure it) is to you in evaluating a candidate.
Seasonal category performance (such as Black/Gray ink)
This specifically refers to a player's track record in either leading his league and/or consistently being among the league leaders in key statistical categories. The Black and Gray ink tests are methods for quantifying this, and they are easily accessible on baseball-reference.com. Again, I'm combining 2 things that aren't exactly alike, but similar enough for grouping purposes.
What Am I Not Asking About in Question 1?
I thought long and hard about whether to include JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score System) in the first question. JAWS is a prominent feature on baseball-reference.com, and it is positioned both by its creator (Jay Jaffe) and by many others specifically for its application in Hall of Fame evaluations.
Ultimately, I decided against it because I'm already asking about the 2 components of JAWS (career value and peak value) separately. I wanted to ask about them separately because I know many people weigh career more heavily than peak, or vice versa. JAWS incorporates both by averaging the two figures.
So, if JAWS is something you put weight on, then essentially you're saying that some combination of career and peak WAR is something you do consider, I would suggest that you just split your "points" among career and peak value according to whatever individual weights you deem appropriate.
I should mention, however, that while I don't address JAWS directly in question 1, I am asking specifically about it in the second question (about "tools"), so it isn't totally being excluded. I'm simply addressing it a little differently by comparing it more directly to other tools.
Also, the Hall of Fame Monitor is not included in question 1 because it really encompasses so many different things. Like JAWS, I'll ask about it specifically in question 2, under the "tools" question, even though (as I'm sure many of you would likely point out), it's not really a Hall of Fame evaluation tool, at least not conceptually. It's more of a tool to assess whether a player is doing the types of things that might traditionally be associated with a Hall of Famer, as opposed to how deserving a player is. Still, I'm sure some people use it as a potential Hall of Fame evaluation "tool".
What if you have some other consideration that's important to you, but it's not specifically listed? Well, I would ask that you see if it can reasonably be included in one of the 10 options I outlined. If you have another option that really doesn't fit into the existing options, go ahead and add it in your reply and give it the number of points you'd like, and I'll figure out how to summarize that information across the various replies. Just be sure that, no matter what, all of your factors up to 100.
Overview of Question 2
Question 2 is pretty straightforward. I'm asking about 10 specific tools/metrics/approaches that I believe are commonly used in Hall of Fame evaluations (although they're not all exclusively used for that purpose). Using a "Never" to "Always" scale, I'm asking you to indicate how frequently you use each one in Hall of Fame evaluations.
I suspect most of you are familiar with these, so I won't spend any time or space reviewing them. If you're not familiar with a particular one....well, I suspect your answer will be that you "never" use it.
The tools are (in alphabetical order):
· Black Ink
· Gray Ink
· Hall of Fame Monitor
· Hall of Fame Standards
· Keltner List
· JAWS
· Similarity Scores
· WAR (baseball-reference.com)
· WAR (Fangraphs)
· Win Shares
The scale for each one is:
· Never use
· Rarely use
· Sometimes use
· Frequently use
· Always use
In contrast to question 1, in this question I am breaking out the 2 main versions of WAR (baseball-reference.com's version and Fangraphs' version) and Win Shares. However, I'm not distinguishing between whether you use them for career evaluation, peak evaluation, or both. Just, simply, how often do you use them specifically for Hall of Fame evaluation, and not for other purposes.
Walking Through Some Examples
Here are a few examples to illustrate how you might approach allocating points in the first question:
Example 1:
Let's say you like to go mainly by gut feel, and you are also of the opinion that steroid allegations are a compelling reason to not vote for someone. In addition, you like do a quick check of Similarity Scores to validate your instincts.. You might allocate your 100 points like this:
Awards & Honors -0
Career statistical category totals - 0
Career value - 0
Character/integrity/sportsmanship/reputation - 15
Comparison to others (such as Similarity Scores) - 10
Contribution to successful and/or championship teams - 0
Elite compared to peers (at his position and/or his teams) - 0
Gut feel - 75
Peak value - 0
Seasonal category performance (such as black/gray ink) - 0
Example 2:
Let's say you like metrics such as WAR and Win Shares, and you also like the JAWS system. You also tend to put some stock in career milestones and seasonal category leadership. You tend not to hold steroid allegations or usage against players, you also don't care too much about awards bestowed upon players during their career, and you aren't that interested in team performance. You might go with something along these lines:
Awards & Honors -0
Career value - 40
Career statistical category totals - 10
Character/integrity/sportsmanship/reputation - 0
Comparison to others (such as Similarity Scores) - 0
Contribution to successful and/or championship teams - 0
Elite compared to peers (at his position and/or his teams) - 0
Gut feel - 0
Peak value - 40
Seasonal category performance (such as black/gray ink) - 10
Example 3:
Let's say you like to consider a wide spectrum of factors. You might opt for starting at 10 points for each of the 10, and then tweak a few up or down a little:
Awards & Honors -12
Career value - 12
Career statistical category totals - 12
Character/integrity/sportsmanship/reputation - 5
Comparison to others (such as Similarity Scores) - 6
Contribution to successful and/or championship teams - 12
Elite compared to peers (at his position and/or his teams) - 12
Gut feel - 5
Peak value - 12
Seasonal category performance (such as black/gray ink) - 12
Ready to start?
Remember, there are no right or wrong answers, and there is no right or wrong way to allocate your 100 points in question 1. Also, even though everyone will be posting below, try not to let that influence your decisions. We don't know you. You're describing your point of view to us. If your answers accurately reflect your perspective, then it's the "right" response.
I'll leave it open for at least a few days, maybe a week or more, depending on response rate. If we bog down, I may reach out to Bill to post it on "Hey Bill" to stimulate some additional responses. At the end, I'll tabulate the results, publish the findings, and make some observations. Hopefully, you'll find this interesting and we'll get a lot of replies.
Survey Time
To complete and submit a survey, please follow these steps:
- Highlight the entire text (the text that's in red below) with your mouse
- Hit <ctrl> C to Copy
- Click on the "Add a Comment" link at the end of this article
- Click inside the comment box and hit <ctrl> V to Paste. This should paste the entire text into the comment
- After the dash following each category for question 1, type in the number of points (out of 100) you are assigning to that category
- For each tool listed in question 2, indicate your selection using the Never/Rarely/Sometimes/Frequently/Always scale.
- Post your comment
Note that the red won't translate to the comment box - I'm just using it as a visual guide for you to copy/paste. Remember to enter your weights, and make sure they add up to 100:
Below is the text to copy and paste into your comment.
Question 1:
Distribute 100 points among the following 10 categories based on how much weight you think each one should carry in considering a Hall of Fame candidate:
Awards & Honors -
Career value -
Career statistical category totals -
Character/integrity/sportsmanship/reputation -
Comparison to others (such as Similarity Scores) -
Contribution to successful and/or championship teams -
Elite compared to peers (at his position and/or his teams) -
Gut feel -
Peak value -
Seasonal category performance (such as black/gray ink) -
Question 2:
Using the following scale, please indicate how frequently you use each of the following 10 tools when evaluating Hall of Fame candidates:
Never use.......Rarely use........Sometimes use........Frequently use........Always use
Black Ink-
Gray Ink-
Hall of Fame Monitor-
Hall of Fame Standards-
Keltner List-
JAWS-
Similarity Scores-
WAR (baseball-reference.com)-
WAR (Fangraphs)-
Win Shares-
Thank you for your participation!
Dan