Jorge Posada had a long and successful career with the New York Yankees. In my last article I argued that his career was worthy of a plaque in the Hall-of-Fame. A central part of my argument was that the Yankees, during Posada’s career, were an exceptionally successful team, certainly the best team in my lifetime, and a contender for the best team in baseball history. As Posada had a fine career playing a key position on that team, it seems appropriate that we should give him credit for that success.
But does he really deserve credit?
A reader pointed out that Jorge Posada’s Yankees did much better when he didn’t play than when he did. If Posada was a great player, wouldn’t the Yankees record be a lot worse when he wasn’t in the game?
This is true. The Yankees did have a better winning percentage when Posada didn’t play than when he did:
‘95-'11 Yankees
|
W-L
|
Win%
|
With Posada
|
1060-769
|
.580
|
Without
|
576-327
|
.638
|
|
|
|
That’s a big gap, actually. A .580 team is a 94-win team, which is pretty decent, but a .638 winning percentage is a 104-win pace. And we’re not dealing with small samples….we’re looking at hundreds of games.
The stat is accurate. It’s also totally lying. It’s a deceitful statistic. And it’s especially deceitful when it is applied to a player like Jorge Posada.
Can you guess why?
It’s the games.
A player’s win-loss record counts all of his games, starts and non-starts. If a player comes in as a late-inning replacement, that counts as a game, even if he didn’t really influence the outcome of the game. And if he leaves in the first with a banged up knee, that counts too.
This handicaps all players. Most players will end up having a lower winning percentage in games they played than in games they didn’t play. If your star player is having a rest day, when are you going to bring him in? When does he get an at-bat?
When the team is losing. Or a tie, maybe.
If you’ve got Willie Mays resting the bench and a two-run lead late in the game, you’re going to let Willie rest. But if your team is down two runs, Willie better be getting loose. A baserunner and he’s going to bat.
This influences the W-L record of all players, but it hurts catchers more than anyone else, because they miss more games.
Think it through. A good first basemen starts almost every single game. Miguel Cabrera, old and creaky, played 156 games as a starter this year, two games as a substitute. Albert Pujols, older and creakier, played 151 games as a starter, one as a substitute.
A good, robust catcher will start on the bench one game a week, every single week of the season. Buster Posey played 138 games as a starter, eight as a sub. Yadier was 143/4.
Over the course of their careers, a good corner infielder will have about 3% of their games come as a pinch-hitter. A good middle infielder or outfielder will be in the 5-6% range. But a good catcher will be at 10%.
This is why all catchers seem to have a disproportionately low winning percentage to their peers: a higher percentage of their ‘games’ are contests when they’re coming into losing situations. Miguel Cabrera might get one game a year when he a) starts on the bench, and b) comes in to try and salvage a close game. Buster Posey will do that seven or eight times a year.
So while this is correct:
‘95-'11 Yankees
|
W-L
|
Win%
|
With Posada
|
1060-769
|
.580
|
Without Posada
|
576-327
|
.638
|
Overall
|
1636-1096
|
.599
|
|
|
|
It doesn’t tell the whole story:
Starter/Sub
|
W-L
|
Win %
|
As Starter
|
988-654
|
.602
|
As Substitute
|
72-155
|
.385
|
The reality isn’t that Posada’s presence cost the Yankees a ton of wins…the reality is that the ‘Without Posada’ math comprises rest days when the Yankees were able to win without him in the lineup, while the ‘With Posada’ counts a lot of games when he made pinch-hitting appearances to try and salvage a win.
* * *
It is my belief that the position of ‘catcher’ is the single most important position on the diamond, and I think that good catchers have tremendous influence on the success of their teams. This seems, in my head, to be self-evident. I realize that it isn’t self-evident…I realize that I have a long road to convince anyone else of this…but it seems evident to my self. Catchers are important.
How can we test a theory like this?
One way we could test this is to look at a bunch of great players at various positions, and check their team’s W-L records when they played. Let’s do that.
Here’s a list of the top-25 catchers, centerfielders, and third basemen according to career WAR, along with their team’s win-loss percentage:
Name
|
Win %
|
Name
|
Win %
|
Name
|
Win %
|
Johnny Bench
|
.559
|
Willie Mays
|
.550
|
Alex Rodriguez
|
.538
|
Gary Carter
|
.532
|
Ty Cobb
|
.529
|
Mike Schmidt
|
.525
|
Ivan Rodriguez
|
.511
|
Tris Speaker
|
.551
|
Eddie Mathews
|
.542
|
Carlton Fisk
|
.521
|
Mickey Mantle
|
.575
|
Wade Boggs
|
.518
|
Yogi Berra
|
.603
|
Joe DiMaggio
|
.640
|
George Brett
|
.537
|
Mike Piazza
|
.514
|
Ken Griffey Jr.
|
.482
|
Chipper Jones
|
.580
|
Bill Dickey
|
.613
|
Al Simmons
|
.535
|
Adrian Beltre
|
.522
|
Ted Simmons
|
.472
|
Carlos Beltran
|
.495
|
Brooks Robinson
|
.566
|
Gabby Hartnett
|
.534
|
Andruw Jones
|
.584
|
Ron Santo
|
.477
|
Mickey Cochrane
|
.628
|
Reggie Smith
|
.530
|
Scott Rolen
|
.518
|
Joe Mauer
|
.488
|
Jim Edmonds
|
.538
|
Miguel Cabrera
|
.520
|
Gene Tenace
|
.504
|
Duke Snider
|
.529
|
Paul Molitor
|
.518
|
Bill Freehan
|
.516
|
Kenny Lofton
|
.556
|
Harmon Killebrew
|
.499
|
Jorge Posada
|
.580
|
Max Carey
|
.497
|
Graig Nettles
|
.512
|
Lance Parrish
|
.503
|
Richie Ashburn
|
.463
|
Buddy Bell
|
.476
|
Ernie Lombardi
|
.428
|
Willie Davis
|
.543
|
Darrell Evans
|
.497
|
Wally Schang
|
.460
|
Kiki Cuyler
|
.539
|
Robin Ventura
|
.550
|
Thurman Munson
|
.546
|
Jimmy Wynn
|
.452
|
Sal Bando
|
.548
|
Darrell Porter
|
.501
|
Chet Lemon
|
.517
|
Stan Hack
|
.538
|
Jason Kendall
|
.472
|
Larry Doby
|
.577
|
Ron Cey
|
.553
|
Roy Campanella
|
.621
|
Mike Cameron
|
.563
|
Ken Boyer
|
.495
|
Jim Sundberg
|
.487
|
Sam Rice
|
.514
|
David Wright
|
.500
|
Sherm Lollar
|
.494
|
Cesar Cedeno
|
.491
|
Bob Elliott
|
.511
|
Brian McCann
|
.520
|
Edd Roush
|
.529
|
Heinie Groh
|
.513
|
Russell Martin
|
.554
|
Fred Lynn
|
.502
|
Joe Sewell
|
.523
|
C Total
|
.524
|
CF Total
|
.530
|
3B Total
|
.523
|
There are a few guys missing from these lists: I cut a number of players who I didn’t think ‘counted’ for the position. Do I need to list them?
Alright. Joe Torre shows up as a catcher, and played more games at catcher than he did at any other position. I didn’t include him because a) he played many more games as a corner infielder than he did as a catcher, and b) his best years were the years he wasn’t catching. I didn’t list Brian Downing because his best years were as a DH. I didn’t include Bresnehan because I didn’t have certain splits for him. Too old.
In center, I cut Robin Yount because he played more years as a shortstop. And I cut Andre Dawson because he was mostly a right fielder. Tommy Leach got the Bresnehan treatment…too old.
Third base had a lot of cuts. I kept A-Rod but cut Edgar Martinez (a DH), Dick Allen (1B), and Tony Perez (1B). Tommy Leach showed up on this list and was still too old. So was Home Run Baker.
It doesn’t matter. The results show that the great centerfielders (.530 winning percentage) tended to win a bit more than the great catchers (.524) or the great third basemen (.523). The winningest player is Joe DiMaggio (.640), followed by Mickey Cochrane (.628). The worst player was Schnozz, followed by the Toy Cannon.
This isn’t surprising, right? I think most of us, if we had to pick which position would have the most winners, would pick centerfield. Centerfielders seem like winners….Mickey and Duke and Willie. DiMaggio. Speaker. Beltran.
And it’s not surprising that DiMaggio is pretty far out in front of everyone else. He’s a great player, and he’s a Yankee. It’s not surprising that he’s out in front of the pack.
But as I noted with Posada, catchers are unfairly punished by their higher percentage of pinch-hitting appearances. Among this group of seventy-five players, catchers have a higher percentage of substitute appearances than centerfielders or third basemen:
Games
|
As Starters
|
As Subs
|
Catchers
|
90.7%
|
9.3%
|
Centerfield
|
93.4
|
6.6%
|
Third Base
|
95.8%
|
4.2%
|
So what if we looked at this list, but only looked at each player’s win-loss percentage as a starter? How would that change things?
We’d get this:
Name
|
Starting W-L %
|
Name
|
Starting W-L %
|
Name
|
Starting W-L %
|
Johnny Bench
|
.575
|
Willie Mays
|
.559
|
Alex Rodriguez
|
.542
|
Gary Carter
|
.544
|
Ty Cobb
|
.541
|
Mike Schmidt
|
.529
|
Ivan Rodriguez
|
.515
|
Tris Speaker
|
.560
|
Eddie Mathews
|
.548
|
Carlton Fisk
|
.536
|
Mickey Mantle
|
.591
|
Wade Boggs
|
.532
|
Yogi Berra
|
.631
|
Joe DiMaggio
|
.641
|
George Brett
|
.540
|
Mike Piazza
|
.528
|
Ken Griffey Jr.
|
.486
|
Chipper Jones
|
.585
|
Bill Dickey
|
.634
|
Al Simmons
|
.548
|
Adrian Beltre
|
.519
|
Ted Simmons
|
.498
|
Carlos Beltran
|
.501
|
Brooks Robinson
|
.566
|
Gabby Hartnett
|
.570
|
Andruw Jones
|
.582
|
Ron Santo
|
.479
|
Mickey Cochrane
|
.639
|
Reggie Smith
|
.543
|
Scott Rolen
|
.517
|
Joe Mauer
|
.498
|
Jim Edmonds
|
.543
|
Miguel Cabrera
|
.520
|
Gene Tenace
|
.528
|
Duke Snider
|
.578
|
Paul Molitor
|
.522
|
Bill Freehan
|
.530
|
Kenny Lofton
|
.555
|
Harmon Killebrew
|
.515
|
Jorge Posada
|
.602
|
Max Carey
|
.504
|
Graig Nettles
|
.531
|
Lance Parrish
|
.513
|
Richie Ashburn
|
.474
|
Buddy Bell
|
.479
|
Ernie Lombardi
|
.487
|
Willie Davis
|
.548
|
Darrell Evans
|
.509
|
Wally Schang
|
.499
|
Kiki Cuyler
|
.554
|
Robin Ventura
|
.550
|
Thurman Munson
|
.550
|
Jimmy Wynn
|
.483
|
Sal Bando
|
.552
|
Darrell Porter
|
.523
|
Chet Lemon
|
.514
|
Stan Hack
|
.549
|
Jason Kendall
|
.474
|
Larry Doby
|
.595
|
Ron Cey
|
.559
|
Roy Campanella
|
.642
|
Mike Cameron
|
.556
|
Ken Boyer
|
.503
|
Jim Sundberg
|
.494
|
Sam Rice
|
.519
|
David Wright
|
.502
|
Sherm Lollar
|
.530
|
Cesar Cedeno
|
.497
|
Bob Elliott
|
.523
|
Brian McCann
|
.544
|
Edd Roush
|
.544
|
Heinie Groh
|
.522
|
Russell Martin
|
.571
|
Fred Lynn
|
.512
|
Joe Sewell
|
.531
|
C Total
|
.543
|
CF Total
|
.540
|
3B Total
|
.529
|
While the great centerfielders and the third basemen show a modest gain by dropping off their pinch-hitting appearances, our collection of catchers jumps out to the front of the pack.
And more interestingly, DiMaggio gets a lot of competition. Here are the six players with a Starting W-L percentage over .600:
Name
|
Starting W-L %
|
Roy Campanella
|
.642
|
Joe DiMaggio
|
.641
|
Mickey Cochrane
|
.639
|
Bill Dickey
|
.634
|
Yogi Berra
|
.631
|
Jorge Posada
|
.602
|
Larry Doby (.595), Mickey (.591), and the two Mr. Joneses of the Atlanta Braves (Chipper (.585) and Andruw (.582)), round out the top-ten.
I’m surprised by this list, frankly. I would’ve figured that most of the top players would be Yankees, but #1 and #3 didn’t wear pinstripes. And while it doesn’t shock me to see the Maddux Era Braves get a couple names on the list, I had no idea that Larry Doby’s teams won so many games. I think we can put to rest any notion of Doby being a marginal Hall-of-Famer.
We’ll get to Campy in a bit.
A dozen players have losing records as a starting player. They are:
Name
|
Starting W-L %
|
Jason Kendall
|
.474
|
Richie Ashburn
|
.474
|
Buddy Bell
|
.479
|
Ron Santo
|
.479
|
Jimmy Wynn
|
.483
|
Ken Griffey Jr.
|
.486
|
Ernie Lombardi
|
.487
|
Jim Sundberg
|
.494
|
Cesar Cedeno
|
.497
|
Joe Mauer
|
.498
|
Ted Simmons
|
.498
|
Wally Schang
|
.499
|
Catchers get the bulk of this group (6), then CF (4) and 3B (2). The next guy on the list….surprisingly….is Carlos Beltran (.501). It doesn’t help to start your career as a Royal, though his reputation as a winner has certainly transcended those early years in the wilderness.
I did three positions, and seventy-five players…it’s not an exhaustive study by any means. It’s just meant to stat a conversation. If you look at players by their career win-loss records, catchers don’t look impressive. But if you look at them as starters, their importance to team success seems a bit clearer.
* * *
Getting back to Posada.
Posada’s career overlapped with two other career Yankees who have their own cases for Cooperstown: Derek Jeter and Bernie Williams. One knock on Posada is that his overall winning percentage of .580 doesn’t measure up to Bernie Williams (.584) or the flawless Jeter (.593).
But what if we look at their record as starters? What if we ignore all of the games when Posada got called in as a pinch hitter? Who won more games that they played through?
Name
|
Years
|
Starting W-L
|
Win %
|
Jorge Posada
|
1995-11
|
988-654
|
.602
|
Derek Jeter
|
1995-14
|
1623-1109
|
.594
|
Bernie Williams
|
1991-06
|
1181-821
|
.590
|
Jorge comes out on top. The Yankees had a better record in his starts than they did when Jeter or Bernie started. It’s lot better, actually.
And….it turns out that this holds for all the good catchers. They always beat their teammates in winning percentage, if you just look at starts.
Here are Da Bums:
Name
|
Years
|
Starting W-L
|
Win %
|
Roy Campanella
|
1948-57
|
722-403
|
.642
|
Jackie Robinson
|
1947-56
|
819-496
|
.623
|
Duke Snider
|
1947-64
|
1045-764
|
.578
|
Gil Hodges
|
1943-63
|
1108-758
|
.594
|
I’m surprised by this one. I assumed that Jackie would have the better winning percentage. Campy and Jackie’s careers overlap directly, but Jackie had the benefit of a World Series year (1947) that Campy can’t count. But Jackie doesn’t come close to Campanella’s winning percentage. Jackie was one of the winningest players in baseball history, but he didn’t win as often as the Brooklyn backstop.
Duke Snider, surviving the club’s move to L.A., had the benefit of a couple additional World Series championships in 1959 and 1963, but his winning percentage doesn’t come close to Roy or Jackie, and trails Hodges.
Big Red Machine:
Name
|
Years
|
Starting W-L
|
Win %
|
Johnny Bench
|
1967-83
|
1150-849
|
.575
|
Pete Rose
|
1963-86
|
1926-1504
|
.562
|
Tony Perez
|
1964-86
|
1384-1110
|
.555
|
Joe Morgan
|
1963-84
|
1368-1122
|
.549
|
Bench comes out ahead, though Rose draws close because he switched to the Phillies at a good time. Joe Morgan probably gets knocked back by his early years in Houston.
Sorting through the Yankees is a nightmare, because there’s a lot of overlapping parts, but here’s the best I can do:
Name
|
Years
|
Starting W-L
|
Win %
|
Baby Ruth
|
1914-35
|
1454-937
|
.608
|
Lou Gehrig
|
1923-39
|
1316-801
|
.622
|
Earle Combs
|
1924-35
|
790-535
|
.596
|
Tony Lazzari
|
1926-39
|
1038-616
|
.628
|
Bill Dickey
|
1928-46
|
1021-590
|
.634
|
I’m rating them by ‘Years’ instead of winning percentage. Ruth is at the bottom, but it might be that the list isn’t counting the games he pitched, which he mostly won. He wasn’t a Yankee lifer anyway.
Dickey had a better winning percentage than Gehrig or Lazzari, with Combs trailing. Combs didn’t get to cash in on the early DiMaggio years.
Name
|
Years
|
Starting W-L
|
Win %
|
Joe DiMaggio
|
1936-51
|
1090-611
|
.641
|
Joe Gordon
|
1938-50
|
946-578
|
.621
|
King Kong Keller
|
1939-52
|
628-364
|
.633
|
DiMaggio is on top…this is the one time when a catcher loses to a teammate, although Dickey rates ahead of Keller and Gordon. Lots of wins in this group.
Name
|
Years
|
Starting W-L
|
Win %
|
Yogi Berra
|
1946-65
|
1188-696
|
.631
|
Mickey Mantle
|
1951-68
|
1337-925
|
.591
|
Elston Howard
|
1955-68
|
798-570
|
.583
|
Roger Maris
|
1957-68
|
736-576
|
.561
|
Yogi crushes the competition. He won a few World Series in the waning DiMaggio years, and kept on winning through the Mantle era. I included Elston Howard and Roger Maris just to see how they’d compare. The catcher wins.
Cochrane?
Cochrane played on two good teams: the Philadelphia A’s and the Detroit Tigers. He has a much, much, much better winning percentage than the other Hall-of-Famers that he played with on both teams.
Name
|
Years
|
Starting W-L
|
Win %
|
Mickey Cochrane
|
1925-37
|
888-502
|
.639
|
Jimmie Foxx
|
1925-45
|
1187-943
|
.557
|
Charlie Gehringer
|
1924-42
|
1165-1022
|
.533
|
Hank Greenberg
|
1930-47
|
766-598
|
.562
|
If you asked me what player in baseball history had the most influence on his team’s success, counting all contributions, I would be very tempted to pick Mickey Cochrane during his player/manager years.
Babe Ruth was a far greater player, but he had a lot more minuses than Cochrane. He was a pain in the ass. He worried the manager. He probably roped his teammates into fun a bit too much at night. He could piss off teammates: Gehrig didn’t talk to him for years. He was an indifferent defender, which probably taxed the pitchers. He struck out a lot for his era. He sort of blocked out the sun for everyone else, which must’ve been exhausting. We all need sun.
Cochrane would hit a dozen homers in a good year, but he managed half his teams. He dealt with his pitchers. He guided young players to success, and motivated old guys to get their asses in gear. He never struck out….he wasn’t scary to pitch to, but he would’ve been exhausting. He played stellar defense. Reporters liked him enough to give him the MVP every chance they could.
We have stats like WAR which attempt to quantify a player’s contributions on the field, and translate them as ‘wins.’ I think it makes perfect sense that Babe Ruth would have the winningest seasons by the things that metric counts, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Cochrane, in his best years, was doing more to put W’s in the ledgers of his teams than Ruth was.
After that, it’s a little hard to find parallels. Carlton Fisk didn’t have an obvious parallel, and I can’t think of who followed Gary Carter from Montreal to New York. Bill Freehan was a little younger than Cash or Kaline. I suppose Nettles and Munson could be looked at. Piazza and Pudge don’t have clear overlaps.
* * *
I was going to end things there, with a few nice paragraph about Jorge Posada, who is almost certainly going to drop off the BBWAA ballot sometime this week. And then I realized that the numbers were still lying.
This was an absolute, last-minute realization. This was a governor’s pardon as the sheriff is reaching for the switch. It dawned on me as I was giving a final read-through article, just looking for typos. I’m sure some of you figured it out a bit earlier than I did.
Let’s go back to Da Bums:
Name
|
Years
|
Starting W-L
|
Win %
|
Roy Campanella
|
1948-57
|
722-403
|
.642
|
Jackie Robinson
|
1947-56
|
819-496
|
.623
|
Why does Campy have a better winning percentage than Jackie Robinson?
Because he played fewer games than Jackie.
Think it through. If Jackie Robinson starts all 154 games in a season, but Roy Campanella makes 130 starts, Campy’s W-L record is going to have a big advantage. Every Campanella start would have Jackie and Campy in the lineup, whereas Jackie would 24 starts where it’s Jackie and a backup catcher. Which team is better: a team with Jackie and Campanella, or a team with Jackie and Rube Walker?
Campanella has a better winning percentage than Jackie because almost all of his starts were Campy and Jackie games, while Jackie Robinson played a lot of games without Campanella.
This is why Posada is ahead of Jeter, and why Bench is ahead of Rose. It’s why Cochrane is ahead of Foxx and Gehringer and Greenberg: all of his starts were starts with Cochrane and Foxx, or Cochrane and Gehringer. The other players didn’t have the same benefit.
So while a player’s overall W-L record is unfairly biased againstcatchers, a player’s starting W-L record is unfairly biased towards catchers. Neither one tells us a hell of a lot about the value of the position, or the correlation between having a good catcher and winning games.
So we’ve come full circle. Sigh.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in New Zealand. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.